Legacies and Leverage: EU Political Conditionality and Democracy Promotion in Historical Perspective

Previous studies have established strong and robust effects of EU political conditionality on democracy in the neighbouring countries. We test these effects against the claim that historical legacies condition the likelihood of successful democratisation—and possibly the EU's political conditionality as well. Based on a panel study of 36 countries of the Eastern and Mediterranean neighbourhood of the EU between 1988 and 2004, we show that cultural legacies of religious civilisation are indeed conducive to or inhibit democratisation, and reduce the effects of political conditionality, but they do not explain away the EU's role in promoting democratic consolidation.     

The Memory of Katyn in Polish Political Discourse: A Quantitative Study

This study uses quantitative methods to explore how the memory of Katyn is mobilised in political discourse. The scholarly literature on memory conflict tends to see international memory disputes as an expression of a state's interests as a whole; this study analyses when hostile rhetoric is mobilised and finds that in Poland Katyn is invoked as part of an opposition strategy that criticises the incumbent regime for undermining the national interest. Periods of accelerated debate about the significance of Katyn have occurred as political elites sought to achieve specific domestic rather than foreign political goals.     

How EU Integration and Legacies Mattered for Foreign Direct Investment into Central and Eastern Europe

This essay uses the case of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Central and Eastern Europe to stipulate how European Union (EU) integration affected the economic globalisation of the post-socialist region. Existing studies argue that expectations of impending EU membership had a direct effect on raising FDI inflows because they reduced perceived investment risks for potential investors. In contrast, I show that the EU accession process worked through an indirect effect on FDI: it influenced post-socialist states' efforts to promote FDI as a desirable strategy of economic development and the behaviour of firms. These state efforts, in turn, increased FDI inflows, net of conventional risk and return factors. Further analyses indicate that decisions about state FDI-promotion have been influenced not only by EU conditionality but also, and importantly, by particular legacies, namely the countries' initial choice of privatisation strategies, extent of reform during socialism and history of state sovereignty. Overall, the results suggest that EU integration and legacies of the past shape both the structural and the ideational context for domestic decision-making elites in Central and Eastern Europe, and may act not only as constraints but also as enabling conditions facilitating the global economic integration of the region.     

Political mobilization in East Central Europe

This article provides an introduction to the special thematic section on political mobilization in East Central Europe. Based on a brief presentation of the main arguments of the individual articles, the authors discuss the recent political volatility in East Central Europe. They highlight the tension between fierce political rhetoric and populist policies on the one hand, and low levels of voter turnout and overall political participation in the region on the other. The authors argue that recent cases of successful as well as unsuccessful political mobilization in East Central Europe point to structural re-alignments in the region’s political landscape. In particular, the parties that are successful are those that manage to communicate their visions in new ways and whose messages resonate with nested attitudes and preferences of the electorate. These parties typically rally against the so-called establishment and claim for themselves an anti-hegemonic agenda. The introductory essay also asserts that these developments in East Central Europe deserve attention for their potential Europe-wide repercussions – especially the idea of “illiberal democracy,” which combines populist mobilization and autocratic demobilization and finds adherents also in more established European democracies.     

Political Competition and Local Social Spending: Evidence from Brazil

Electoral theories of democracy imply electoral competition insures accountability. Using data on local elections, socioeconomic factors, and municipal budgets from more than 5,000 municipalities in Brazil for the years 1996, 2000, and 2004, we find that municipalities with more competitive elections allocate less to social spending compared to municipalities with little political competition. We argue that previous theory on political competition and public goods obscures the critical role that financial resources play in shaping the dynamics of social spending and political competition. Municipalities with small budgets lack the resources necessary to engineer convincing electoral victories. Where resources are negligible, voter turnout is low, and incumbents rarely win reelection. Incumbent parties in municipalities with large financial resources win big. Armed with adequate resources, incumbent parties mobilize voters and win by large margins. This new argument and evidence reconcile contradictory findings in the existing literature on competition and public goods.     

North African Immigrants in Europe and Political Violence

North African communities in Europe have been the focus of unprecedented attention since the attacks of 9/11, largely thanks to the wave of arrests of North Africans on terrorism related charges across the continent. Yet very little is known about exactly who these North African militants are, what is motivating them and how and why they became attracted to radical interpretations of Islam. It is often assumed that these radicals are linked to Al Qaeda and share the same broad internationalist vision. A closer look suggests that these first generation immigrants continue to be preoccupied as much by national politics as any notion of a globalized form of Islam. Little attention has also been paid to the complex relationship between these militant elements and the wider North African communities residing in Europe. Although the War on Terror has made many North African immigrants feel increasingly uncomfortable, it has arguably also enabled the more politicized moderate parts of the Islamist community to increase their role and influence, with questionable consequences for these communities as a whole.     

Legacies of State Socialism: A Comparative Study of Elite Attitudes towards EU Economic Competitiveness in Western and Central Eastern Europe

Abstract

The elites of Western Europe prefer social security for all citizens as the major aim of the EU, while the preference of Central and Eastern European elites is for a more globally competitive European economy. This disparity between elite preferences may be accounted for by the distinct electorates and elites’ responsive strategic calculations, or by the process of socialisation Central and Eastern European elites undergo during exposure to the EU. This article argues that the predominant reason for the difference in elite attitudes towards economic competition is the lasting effect of state socialism in Central and Eastern European countries.     

东欧制度变迁中的政党与政治思潮研究

本文通过对苏联、东欧国家十几年来政党格局和社会政治思潮变化的分析,考察了制度变迁的特点与后果.苏联、东欧国家制度变迁的过程中,政党出现了异乎寻常的剧烈变动,原来执政的共产党纷纷倒台.实行多党制后,政党政治逐渐走向制度化,议会也成为国家政治的中心,基本上进入西方现代资本主义国家的政体范畴,从政治体制上结束了斯大林模式.同时,各国原有的以马克思主义为主导的主流文化丧失,各种潜在的或外来的政治思潮涌现,在制度变迁中起着催化剂的作用.自由主义、民主社会主义和民族主义这三股思潮在苏东国家制度变迁和变迁后的十几年中,不同程度地左右着政局和社会的变化.由此给我们的启示是,执政党要充分认识社会政治思潮的重要作用,在社会主义建设实践中要不断总结经验,不断进行理论创新.     

The Return of Political Risk: Foreign-Owned Banks in Emerging Europe

Political risk—risk that investments are damaged by policy action of authorities—increased during the financial crisis due to controversies about the distribution of accumulated losses among stakeholders. Authorities interconnected by cross-border banks considered unilateral policies that minimised losses for domestic stakeholders at the expense of their foreign counterparts. This is at odds both with the assumption behind financial integration which presumes multilateral responses to cross-border shocks and with the typical definition of political risks that ignores the fact that not only host-country, but also home-country authorities can create such risks. This paper recasts the definition of political risk and reviews instances when political risk materialised within the EU banking market between 2007 and 2011. The analysis reveals that the EU regulatory framework needs to be enhanced to contain resurgent political risks systematically rather than through ad hoc interventions of the EU and international bodies.     

Environmental politics in Chile: Legacies of dictatorship and democracy

Standing at the forefront of Latin America's political and economic liberalisation, Chile is held up as a model for the developing world. First in the region to embrace a boldly neoliberal development strategy, Chile's military dictatorship also peacefully gave way to stable, civilian rule and comparative economic success. However, the lens of environmental politics reveals a disturbing underside to the Chilean miracle. Environmental policy, institutions and participation are shaped and constrained by ominous legacies of history, dictatorship, and an economic orthodoxy inimical to sustainability. Democratic rule has opened political space, yet new environmental institutions and procedures exhibit inherited elitist and exclusionary features. Chile's environmental movement likewise demonstrates promise and innovation, but remains grounded in a civil society weakened and atomised by dictatorship and incomplete transition. Still, as the environmental costs of Chile's resource-extractive, export-led development mount, environmental politics may yet present a vital opportunity for social change.     

欧美民众对政党的冷漠情绪及其原因分析

对政党的冷漠情绪是指在肯定政党对于民主的基本作用的前提下,当代欧美社会普遍存在的对政党及其政治家的不信任感和冷漠情绪.产生这种情绪的直接原因是人们普遍感到自己缺乏有效的政治参与,政党追逐私利,更进一步还可以追溯到政治体制和政党发展所引发的矛盾冲突,包括对政党和政治变迁的不同看法和对政党的过高要求等,尤其是政治个人化、职业化和政党内部的民主争端等,都可能导致人们产生对政党的矛盾情绪.     

An Alternative Internationalism: The Main Lines and Legacies of Polish Sovietology,Promethean Orientalism and the Soviet ‘Southern Borderlands’, 1926–1939

Abstract

‘Prometheism’ was an interwar movement of borderland nationalists from the former Russian Empire who envisioned the division of the Soviet Union into independent nation-states. This article argues that ideological affinities and diasporic connections made the Promethean cause an attractive ‘alternative internationalism’ to the Soviet system for exiled thinkers hailing from the so-called ‘southern borderlands’ of Crimea, the Caucasus, the Volga region and Central Asia. In the 1930s, Prometheism drew intellectuals from these regions to Poland, where the movement’s thinkers formulated ambitious visions of Eurasian liberation from Soviet power.     

从社民党到民左联党:波兰左翼政治力量演变的基本轨迹

在剧变后波兰左翼阵营中,由原统一工人党演变而来的社民党占据着特别重要的地位,发挥了中坚作用。以社民党为核心的民左联不仅顶住了来自右翼的打压,而且赢得了总统和议会大选的全面胜利,波兰因此成为东欧地区“左翼复兴”的领头羊。1999年,民左联党的建立是波兰左翼政治力量发展的重要里程碑。然而,新的统一政党的成立实际上具有双重效应,在壮大左翼整体力量的同时,又对左翼未来的发展产生了一定的负面影响。从社民党到民左联党及其后的演变,实际上勾勒出波兰左翼政治力量发展的基本轨迹。