Impact of trade and investment on income surge in Bangladesh: Evidence from trade liberalization regime

Trade and investment are crucial drivers of economic growth. Successful execution of trade and investment policy can elevate a developing country to a sustained growth path and make it self-reliant. Bangladesh implemented a trade liberalization policy in the 1980s, deviating much from its conservative trade policy. This article assesses the impacts of trade, investment in physical as well as human capital, and a few trade policy variables on income surge for the liberalized regime. The econometric analysis finds that export, import, and domestic investment stimulate income. The impact of foreign investment is not conducive. Public spending on education also contributes to the income surge. Among the policy variables, trade openness and currency depreciation produce a beneficial impact. Population growth retards economic growth. The baseline results hold in the estimations involving several specifications of variables and testified as robust. The article views that a comprehensive approach to trade and investment policy would ensure the comparative advantage of trade and the well-being of Bangladesh.     

Economic freedom and equality: Friends or foes?

How does economic freedom, mainly how property rights are designed and protected, relate to income equality? Whilst this is argued to be theoretically ambiguous, the empirical results reveal that there is a positive relationship between changes in economic freedom and equality: the more a country increased its economic freedom between 1975 and 1985, the higher the level of equality around 1985. Most important in this regard is trade liberalization and financial deregulation. Also, there are signs that the level of economic freedom in 1985 is negatively related to the level of equality around that year, plausibly because of less redistribution.

     

Which among twin deficits hypothesis,twin divergence,and Ricardian's equivalence hold in a developing country?

South Africa witnesses the perpetual increase in budget deficit that hampers its ability for inclusive economic growth while on the other hand facing trade balance instability. To realise stability in the economy and sustainable yet inclusive economic growth, the two deficits, namely, budget and trade deficits, should be closely monitored. The study examined the empirical relationship between budget deficit and trade deficit in South Africa in the postapartheid era, employing time series data from 1994 to 2016. The autoregressive distribution lag approach was employed to examine the existence of a cointegration between the set of variables, both in the short‐ and the long‐run relationships and together with the error correction model. It was found that there is a significant and positive relationship between budget deficit and trade deficit in the short run. However, in the long run, the Ricardian's equivalence holds in South Africa. The study recommends that policies aimed at reducing budget and trade deficits should take into account inflation and aim to increase some macroeconomic variables such as fixed investment to ultimately achieve sustainable economic growth.     

Economic growth and income equality since the 1982 recession

This paper tests the “rising tide” and “trickle down” hypotheses of income growth by examining several measures of income inequality between 1983 and 1987. A close look at household incomes between those years shows that post-tax income growth has been concentrated among the 20 percent of American households with the highest incomes. The middle income classes have experienced only modest income growth over this period, and the 20 percent of American households with the lowest incomes have experienced a decline in income. These results hold whether the analysis is based on a summary measure of income equality such as the Gini coefficient, or on a less technical measure such as average income. Furthermore, income growth seems to be decreasing most rapidly for groups of households that historically have had the lowest incomes: female-headed households, blacks, and Hispanics. Finally, two standard explanations of the inequality trend—that the distributional changes are the result of either cohort effects or the movement of jobs to the lower wage areas of South—are tested by disaggregating the data. Neither hypothesis is confirmed by our research.     

A new framework for testing the effect of government spending on growth and productivity

Does government spending have a positive or negative effect on economic growth? The results of earlier empirical studies give mixed results. In this study we suggest a new method for testing the effect of different kinds of government expenditure on productivity growth in the private sector. The focus on productivity in the private sector and the use of disaggregated data makes it possible to avoid or mitigate a number of methodological problems. The major conclusions, which are quite robust, are that government transfers, consumption and total outlays have consistently negative effects, while educational expenditure has a positive effect, and government investment has no effect on private productivity growth. The impact is also found to work solely through total factor productivity and not via the marginal productivity of labor and capital.     

The effect of trade openness on economic growth: Some empirical evidence from emerging market economies

This study investigates the impact of trade openness on economic growth in a panel of five emerging market economies, covering the data period from 1993 to 2016. Based on the panel estimation methods, the empirical results confirm the long‐run relationship among trade openness, economic growth, financial development, inflation, labour force, and technology, whereas the findings of long‐run elasticities show that trade openness has a positive considerable impact on economic growth. Furthermore, the heterogeneous panel non‐causality tests indicate the presence of a bidirectional causality between economic growth and inflation and a unidirectional causality that runs from economic growth to trade openness and economic growth to financial development in the short run. Finally, the findings suggested that trade openness plays a substantial role in promoting economic growth while also promoting economic development in these five emerging market economies.     

Who does better for the economy? Presidents versus parliamentary democracies

Are certain forms of government associated with superior economic outcomes? This paper attempts to answer that question by examining how government systems influence macroeconomic performance. We find that presidential regimes consistently are associated with less favorable outcomes than parliamentary regimes: slower output growth, higher and more volatile inflation and greater income inequality. Moreover, the magnitude of the effect is sizable. For example, annual output growth is between 0.6 and 1.2 percentage points lower and inflation is estimated to be at least four percentage points higher under presidential regimes relative to those under parliamentary ones. The difference in distributional outcomes is even starker; income inequality is 12 to 24% worse under presidential systems.     

Political institutions and income (re-)distribution: evidence from developed economies

We discuss the effect of formal political institutions (electoral systems, fiscal decentralization, presidential and parliamentary regimes) on the extent and direction of income (re-)distribution. Empirical evidence is presented for a large sample of 70 economies and a panel of 13 OECD countries between 1981 and 1998. The evidence indicates that presidential regimes are associated with a less equal distribution of disposable incomes, while electoral systems have no significant effects. Fiscal competition is associated with less income redistribution and a less equal distribution of disposable incomes, but also with a more equal primary income distribution. Our evidence also is in line with earlier empirical contributions that find a positive relationship between trade openness and equality in primary and disposable incomes, as well as the overall redistributive effort.     

A distributional theory of government growth

This article presents a closed form solution for time-consistent taxation and public spending in a dynamic game between government and median voter. Extending Meltzer and Richard’s static analysis of government size the article offers a theory of growth of government. At low stages of economic development the median voter, identified as a relatively poor worker, prefers to have no or only small redistributive taxation in order to foster savings. Through this channel he expects improvements of his labor productivity and wage. At higher stages of development, however, when capital is relatively abundant and prospects of further labor productivity gains through capital accumulation are smaller, the incentive to tax and redistribute income rises. Yet, in line with previous work on growth and infrastructure spending the median voter prefers a constant share of productive public spending at all times. Hence, government growth is solely driven by an expanding welfare state.     

经济增长对要素禀赋变化的影响

本文梳理了资本积累、经济增长与资本丰裕度的动态变化之间的理论关系.要素禀赋决定于长期的资本积累和经济增长条件,而资本积累决定于经济的储蓄、投资意愿以及生产的效率.新古典的经济增长与贸易理论认为,长期中,一国的要素禀赋和比较优势完全由资本投资的数量,即由偏好和储蓄率决定.林毅夫和李荣林从生产函数的角度阐述了发展中国家使资本的丰裕度增加,从而改变贸易模式的途径.而所谓的"长期赫克歇尔俄林定理"则认为,要素禀赋差异不仅决定了静态的贸易模式,而且要素禀赋的初始状态决定了长期的比较优势.     

Globalization,government spending and taxation in the OECD

Abstract. This article assesses the impact of globalization on welfare state effort in the OECD countries. Globalization is defined in terms of total trade, imports from low wage economies, foreign direct investment, and financial market integration. Welfare effort is analyzed in terms both of public spending (and separately on social service provision and income transfer programs) and taxation (effective rates of capital taxation and the ratio of capital to labor and consumption taxes). Year–to–year increases in total trade and international financial openness in the past three decades have been associated with less government spending. In contrast, integration into global markets has not been associated either with reductions in capital tax rates, or with shifts in the burden of taxation from capital to consumption and labor income. Moreover, countries with greater inflows and outflows of foreign direct investment tend to tax capital more heavily.     

Growth,the external terms of trade and endogenous trade liberalization

We study the effects of growth and changes in the external terms of trade on protection. There are two sectors, an urban sector and a rural sector, and trade policy is used to redistribute income between them. We show that growth precedes trade liberalization. In addition, we find that trade reform is triggered by falls in the world prices of primary exports or intermediate imports. These results are shown to hold for tariffs and quotas.     

Revisiting the trade and unemployment nexus: Empirical evidence from the Nigerian economy

The recent exacerbation of unemployment crisis in Nigeria stands to be a serious threat to both socio‐economic stability and progress of the country just as the report from the Bureau of Statistics shows that at least over 8.5 million people had no gainful employment at all as at the last quarter of the year 2017. It is on the above premise, that the present study explores the link between trade and unemployment for the case of Nigeria with the intention of exploring how the unemployment crisis has been impacted within the dynamics of the country's trade performance. The empirical evidence shows that the nation's terms of trade were insignificant to unemployment rate, while trade openness and domestic investment, on the other hand, have significant opposing impacts on unemployment in Nigeria over the period of the study. Further breakdowns from the empirical analysis also revealed that the Philips curves proposition is valid within the Nigerian economic context, while the evidences for the validity of Okun's law only exist in the short‐run scenario. Based on the empirical results, we recommend that concerted effort should be geared toward stimulating domestic investment by providing adequate financial and infrastructural facilities that will promote ease of doing business while utmost precautions are taken to ensure that unemployment crisis is not exacerbated when combating inflation in the economy in the wake of dynamic trade relations.     

The paradox of politics and policy in redistributing income

With political ideology with respect to the income distribution measured by proxy as the fraction of conservative coalition victories, it is found that over the period 1961–1984 the degree of conservative coalition strength is positively associated with changes in inequality, holding the effects of unemployment and inflation constant.A natural question is why don't the low income types vote in candidates who will consistently redistribute income in their favor? The result of such a political process would be a downward trend in income inequality. In point of fact, there is no evidence whatsoever of any trend in income equality over the period. The answer to both questions may be that Tullock (1983, 1986) is on to something. If the middle class voters transfer gains back and forth, the poor can't gain and they don't, then the distribution should be stable and is.     

Trade union behaviour and inter-regional variations in unemployment rates

An important problem in the political economy of the UK is that the disparity of unemployment rates across its regions is much more marked than the corresponding dispersion of wage rates. One possibility is that this is due to the attitude of trade unions to their members in different regions. If unions wish to preserve parity between members in different regions then they will value wage equality between regions over and above wage levels. This may then persuade them to overlook inter-regional productivity differences in setting wages. The price that low-efficiency regions will then pay for this desire for wage equality is higher unemployment rates.Much of the research for this paper was carried out while the author was visiting the Trade Union Economics Research Institute (FIEF), Stockholm in 1989. An earlier version of this paper was presented at a seminar there and the author is gratefully to Villy Bergstrom, Paul Chen, Douglas Hibbs, Eva Udden-Jondal and other institute members for several useful comments. Comments from Kevin Lee, John Spencer and an anonymous referee have also substantially improved the paper. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Domestic political determinants of inflation

Abstract. Political economists have advanced a variety of diverse and competing hypotheses to explain the domestic political dimension of inflation. With few exceptions, however, these hypotheses have been tested individually without regard to competing explanations. This study uses pooled time-series data on fifteen industrial democracies to examine five prominent political hypotheses that purport to explain either political pressures that cause inflation or institutional arrangements that insulate governments from these pressures. The results indicate that: (1) Central Bank independence provides an effective counterweight to inflation by insulating monetary policy making from inflationary (particularly, partisan) impulses; (2) Government spending increases caused by distributive and redistributive politics intensify inflationary pressures even in countries with independent Central Banks and neocorporatist arrangements; (3) Inflation is determined partially by the ideology of the party controlling government. Leftist governments in pursuit of income redistribution produce higher inflation than conservative governments; (4) Elections do not have significant effects on inflation under any structural circumstances; and (5) Neocorporatism does not consistently reduce inflation or contain the inflationary effects of partisan manipulation and fiscal expansion. However, neocorporatism may stop inflation if wage moderation by labour is accompanied by the government's commitment to pursue restrictive monetary policy.     

The Third Way: the Dutch experience

The Third Way in the Netherlands rests upon the institutionalized co-operation between the trade unions, the employers' organizations and the state. During the period of high unemployment in the 1980s this co-operation led to several agreements to moderate wage costs and to reduce statutory working hours with the object of reducing unemployment. In the 1990s,when labour became scarce, new measures were agreed upon to increase participation in the labour market and to boost productivity. Critics of the agreements suggest that the policies adopted by the socio-economic partners in the 1980s, particularly the moderation of wages and the reduction of work time to create more jobs, have a negative effect on the long-term prospects of attaining higher productivity.     

Incomes Policy in Finland: Economic and Social Effects in a Comparative Perspective

This paper examines the performance of the Finnish economy during the so-called incomes policy period, 1969-80. For this purpose Finland is compared with the other OECD countries both before and during the incomes policy period. The results suggest that in terms of economic growth, inflation and unemployment, Finnish economy has improved its performance, particularly before the economic recession of the mid-seventies. Cross-national comparisons point out that the recession has been met in various ways: some countries have restrained inflation, some unemployment. Secondly, the paper examines the effects of incomes policy agreements on the growth of social expenditure, the result being that incomes policy cannot be regarded as responsible for the growth of social expenditure in Finland. Thirdly, effects on income distribution are analyzed. Here incomes policy has played a role: income inequalities diminished during the first five years of incomes policy. Since then, they have not changed. The paper ends by discussing the impact and nature of incomes policy.     

Economic Freedom,Government Policy and the Trade-Off Between Equity and Economic Growth

This study investigates the role that economicfreedom plays in economic growth and in the distribution in marketincome, the role of government policy in advancingeconomic progress and in promoting income equality, and the effectthat the rate of economic progress has on thedistribution of market income. Structural and reduced formmodels are estimated that reveal that economic freedompromotes both economic growth and equity, and that there is apositive but relatively small trade-off between growth andincome inequality.     

Is the causal relation between foreign direct investment,trade, and economic growth complement or substitute? The case of African countries

This study examines causal nexus between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth for 25 African countries within a model that also takes into consideration trade openness using more recent panel data set over the period 1980–2018. We used panel bootstrapping cointegration techniques that account for cross‐sectional dependence to test whether there is a long‐run cointegration relationship or not. The Granger causality approach is employed to conduct predictive analysis among the panel series. Our findings indicate the presence of a long‐run equilibrium nexus between the variables, and we found a bidirectional causality between foreign direct investment, trade openness, and economic growth. This study provides an insight for governments and policymakers in this region to restructure FDI and trade policies in such a way that its positive spillover would spread across the rural areas and local firms, thereby leading to an all‐inclusive sustainable economic growth and development of African countries in the long run.