Identifying Rivals and Rivalries in World Politics

Instead of assuming that all actors are equally likely to clash, and that they do so independently of previous clashes, rivalry analysis can focus on the small number of feuding dyads that cause much of the trouble in the international system. But the value added of this approach will hinge in part on how rivalries are identified. Rivalry dyads are usually identified by satisfying thresholds in the frequency of militarized disputes occurring within some prespecified interval of time. But this approach implies a number of analytical problems including the possibility that rivalry analyses are simply being restricted to a device for distinguishing between states that engage in frequent and infrequent conflict. An alternative approach defines rivalry as a perceptual categorizing process in which actors identify which states are sufficiently threatening competitors to qualify as enemies. A systematic approach to identifying these strategic rivalries is elaborated. The outcome, 174 rivalries in existence between 1816 and 1999 are named and compared to the rivalry identification lists produced by three dispute density approaches. The point of the comparison is not necessarily to assert the superiority of one approach over others as it is to highlight the very real costs and benefits associated with different operational assumptions. The question must also be raised whether all approaches are equally focused on what we customarily mean by rivalries. Moreover, in the absence of a consensus on basic concepts and measures, rivalry findings will be anything but additive even if the subfield continues to be monopolized by largely divergent dispute density approaches.     

国际政治经济形势正在经历巨变

2008北京奥运的完美落幕进一步突出了中国改革开放以来的发展成就,标志着中国的国力、国势、国运进入新的上升轨道,中国与世界的关系再度成为国际热点话题。中国的发展、崛起将引起国际格局、国际体系发生什么样的变化?在变化中的世界,尤其是在中国发展本身就构成国际变局重要组成部分、国际上"中国威胁论"及"中国责任论"等此起彼伏的情况下,中国又面临着什么样的新任务、需要确立怎样的国家大战略、做出何种新的战略选择?要不要居安思危,继续坚持韬光养晦?对这些问题,不仅精英层在严肃思考,普通民众也极为关切。鉴此,《现代国际关系》杂志社2008年8月31日以"‘奥运后时代’中国与世界的关系"为题举办研讨会,邀请京津两地20多位相关领域专家、学者就上述问题展开深入讨论。现将会议主要观点辑录如下,以飨读者。     

地缘重心与世界政治的支点

10 0年前地缘政治的概念被正式提出并形成相对系统的理论。传统地缘政治理论强调国家的权力增长与空间扩张的关系、海权与陆权的对抗。随着冷战的结束和全球化的发展 ,尽管这种支撑强权政治的理论仍对一些国家的战略选择产生影响 ,但它对现实国际政治的解释越来越显现出局限性。文章尝试着从一个新的地缘政治视角 :“地缘重心论” ,来分析现实国际关系 ,强调地缘重心国是区域一体化的引擎 ,是世界政治的支点。同时认为可以从地缘重心的角度分析当前国际关系地缘板块结构中发生国际冲突的脉络。文章主张各个地缘重心国之间应该在相互尊重的基础上进行协调与合作 ,建构一个稳定的世界秩序 ,维持人类的长久和平与繁荣     

The Impact of the Financial Crisis on World Politics

Major earth-changing events took place in the first decade of the 21st century. First,the 9/11 terrorist attacks created shockwaves in the realm of international security. But the global financial crisis had even greater repercussions than 9/11. Policy makers and strategists should closely follow the developments and ramifications of this crisis.     

币权:世界政治的当代枢纽

币权是通过控制金融资本去影响世界经济体系运行和利益分配的权力,币权的出现是当代世界政治体系发生重大变化的标志,由谁及如何控制币权是币缘政治的核心.导致此次金融危机的国际政治原因是美元币权缺少制衡.     

伊战凸显国际形势变化中的宗教因素

自2003年3月23日美国发动伊拉克战争迄今已历四年。四年来,美国软硬实力、内政外交因为这场战争而发生了什么样的变化?国际战略形势又随之出现了哪些变迁?对中国而言,加速发展的战略机遇期是否还将持续?伊拉克战争本身又带来哪些启示?围绕这些问题,《现代国际关系》编辑部举办了“伊拉克战争四周年国际战略形势”专题研讨会,邀请一些知名国际问题专家进行了深入探讨。现将与会专家学者的主要观点辑录刊发,以期对读者更好地理解和把握这些问题有所裨益。     

现代强权政治背景下的人道主义干涉

干涉主义的“复兴”作为苏联权力集团突然解体的结果 ,世界地缘政治版图发生了深刻变化。以相互威慑保持军事力量平衡为特征的两极体系 ,转变成一种美国作为唯一超级大国的单极秩序。在 2 1世纪开始时 ,一国拥有不受挑战的全球霸主地位的全球秩序已经成形。这种情形导致大国统治的复兴。行使“帝国”权力重新成为现实 ,以帝国规则为特征的意识形态概念即19世纪的“人道主义干涉”概念遂得以复兴。在一种帝国规则体系中———以完全缺乏权力分配为特征 ,霸主可以在不受潜在竞争者挑战的情况下追求其利益 ,创造它自己的意识形态 ,并借这种意识…     

Trends of Thought of World Politics in 2006

The year of 2006 had witnessed a dynamic picture in the trends of thought on the world political arena. Among them,some were quite eye-catching: the idea of building a harmonious world proposed by China had attracted broad attention; the U.S.     

Contentious Issues and World Politics: The Management of Territorial Claims in the Americas, 1816–1992

This article studies the management of territorial claims using an issue-based approach that reconceptualizes processes of interstate conflict and cooperation as reflecting contention over issues. Hypotheses on issue management techniques are tested using newly collected data from the Issue Correlates of War (ICOW) research project. Empirical analysis of territorial claims in the Western Hemisphere supports the general model, with issue salience and past issue interactions systematically affecting states' choices between peaceful and militarized techniques for managing or settling their contentious issues. In particular, action over territorial claims is most likely when more valuable territory is at stake, in the aftermath of militarized conflict, and when recent peaceful settlement attempts have failed. Third parties are more likely to become involved in nonbinding activities when the claim appears more threatening to regional or global stability, and submission of claims to binding third-party decisions is most likely between adversaries that have begun to build up a legacy of successful agreements. The article concludes with a discussion of directions for future research on territory and on other issues.     

亚非复兴进程与世界地缘政治演变

当代亚非复兴进程,其实质是近代以来亚非地区各民族追求独立与复兴进程的历史延续,是亚非发展中国家希望实现国际体系更为平等、公正发展,实现西方国家与其他国家平等交往的当代发展.中国和非洲同时开启复兴进程,并在这一进程中加强团结与合作,成为新世纪国际政治领域的重大事件,由此导致世界地缘政治出现结构性变化的新趋向,其历史意义与影响已开始逐步显现.中国、非洲和西方国家应以全新的思维、政策和方式寻求跨区域的多边合作,以共同推动非洲的和平与发展乃至更具广泛意义的全球性问题的解决.国际关系研究也应从观念、理论和政策等多个层面来积极回应当前世界地缘结构的变迁趋向.     

从苏/俄政治转型看现代政党政治的发展趋势

俄/苏在特定的历史条件下建立了多党联合政权,又在特定的历史条件下走向了一党统制。但这条路终究没有走通。苏共随着前苏联的解体而走到其历史的尽头,俄共则随着俄罗斯多党制的确立而浴火重生———虽然处境艰难,却也不失为俄罗斯政坛的一支重要力量。苏/俄政党政治的演变说明,只有基于合法竞争的适应政治民主潮流的政党政治,才有生命力;政治权力的垄断不仅会侵犯作为权力所有者的人民的根本利益,而且对权力的垄断者也是绞索。     

Transnational Information Politics: NGO Human Rights Reporting, 1986–2000

What shapes the transnational activist agenda? Do non-governmental organizations with a global mandate focus on the world's most pressing problems, or is their reporting also affected by additional considerations? To address these questions, we study the determinants of country reporting by an exemplary transnational actor, Amnesty International, during 1986–2000. We find that while human rights conditions are associated with the volume of their country reporting, other factors also matter, including previous reporting efforts, state power, U.S. military assistance, and a country's media profile. Drawing on interviews with Amnesty and Human Rights Watch staff, we interpret our findings as evidence of Amnesty International's social movement-style "information politics." The group produces more written work on some countries than others to maximize advocacy opportunities, shape international standards, promote greater awareness, and raise its profile. This approach has both strengths and weaknesses, which we consider after extending our analysis to other transnational sectors.     

Aid Politics and Electoral Politics: Japan, 1970–1992

We broaden the analysis of aid flows by investigating the effects of domestic and transnational electoral politics on Japanese overseas development assistance(ODA). We also consider measures of external financial balance and Japan's importance in the international trading system. We present a method for assessing shifts in Japanese ODA policy. We find that Liberal Democratic Party popularity affects the size of the Japanese ODA budget and the way that ODA is allocated. There is also limited evidence that ODA allocations are sensitive to the timing of U.S. elections. By contrast, Japan's changing importance in the international trading system and its current account and exchange rate positions account for little of the inter-temporal variation in Japanese ODA policy.     

战后北非对欧洲移民问题及其影响

第二次世界大战以后,北非五国出现了持久的移民欧洲浪潮.导致这种移民潮的原因是多方面的,既有经济、政治、社会文化的动因,也与历史、地理和生存环境等因素有关.大规模的移民浪潮在北非和欧洲国家都引发了复杂的社会问题,并对北非与欧洲国家关系、北非与撒哈拉以南非洲国家关系产生了多方面的影响.长期以来,北非与欧洲国家采取了诸多应对措施来解决由移民引发的一些社会问题,虽然取得了一定的成效,但迄今仍面临多重挑战.     

中非发展合作与人类现代文明的再塑造

当代中国正快速而深刻地卷入全球体系,越来越需要在全球范围内通过合作与交流来争取和维护自己的国家利益,需要以有助于国际间相互沟通理解为目标来建构当代中国的国家政治身份及其道德感召力,提升中国知识与思想、中国的经验与模式、中国智慧与情感的国际话语权与影响力。但这样一种系统完整的当代中国思想、知识与话语体系不可能凭空建构,它需要有自己的创新平台、实践空间与话语源头。正在快速推进和拓展的当代中非发展合作及丰富实践,正是中国学术思想界可以主动予以拓展的一个重要理论创新天地,是中国知识与思想走向世界可以把握的一个特殊机会。     

世界政治“平靖进程”的技术变迁支撑

二战后,世界政治经历了"平靖进程",具体体现为:"大国罕有战事""国家罕有消亡"。本文融合国际政治经济学与国际安全研究,展示二战后的技术变迁改变了大国的"意愿"与"能力",支撑了世界政治新变化。在马尔萨斯时代,由于技术水平低下,生存物资稀缺,生存保障匮乏,人类面临持续的安全难题。二战后,技术发展影响了当代大国的"意愿"与"能力",让世界政治呈现新变化。技术变迁给大国提供了更为丰富的选择,让大国使用武力征服的意愿降低;同时,随着技术变迁,尤其是在"核革命"后,大国确保自身安全的能力更强,使得"大国罕有战事"。得益于技术变迁,大国利益半径扩大,即便距离遥远地域的变化也与自身息息相关,大国保障遥远海外利益的意愿提升;同时,技术变迁扩大了大国的权力投射,让世界各国,尤其是大国保障体系稳定的能力更强,致使"国家罕见消亡"。随着技术变迁,世界政治已呈现出很多与传统智慧不同的方面,孕育国际交往的新理念。     

二战前英属马来亚印度劳工的政治生活简析

从20世纪初开始,马来亚印度人的民族主义逐渐兴起,一方面表现在印度人希望获得马来亚的公民权,但更多地体现在印度劳工希望殖民统治者给予他们公平、合理的待遇。然而,印度人温和合理的政治诉求遭到殖民当局的拒绝,因此他们采取了更为激进的罢工。罢工的失败促使印度人争取祖国印度独立自由的民族主义情绪的高涨,进而在日据时期掀起了一场较有声势的独立运动。日据时期的马来亚印度人的独立运动是一场无果而终的民族解放运动,也是一场失败的民族主义运动,但这场独立运动具有一定的正义性。