Neighborhood Housing Resilience: Examining Changes in Foreclosed Homes During the U.S. Housing Recovery

ABSTRACT

The surge in foreclosures in the United States that began in 2007 reached a peak in mid-2011, and since then, the rate of foreclosures has been decreasing, providing evidence of the housing market recovery. This study examines factors that affected changes in ZIP code-level foreclosure rates in more than 300 U.S. metropolitan areas during the national housing recovery. Using multivariate analyses of the long- and short-term effects of foreclosures simultaneously, this finding shows that certain characteristics of the mortgage and housing markets led to more rapid neighborhood recovery. Results also indicate, however, that most urban-form variables led to neighborhood resilience over the long term, that high shares of mixed land use were strongly associated with fewer foreclosures, and that high shares of auto dependency were associated with high foreclosure rates. Finally, findings suggest that low- and moderate-income neighborhoods, particularly in cities, were more vulnerable and less resilient to economic shock, and the accumulated effects of foreclosures worsened over the long term. However, low- and moderate-income neighborhoods surrounded by suburban affluent neighborhoods recovered more rapidly than those in cities did. Understanding such resilience to economic crises will provide policymakers with insights that they can leverage to establish housing policies for sustainable neighborhoods.     

Household Energy Consumption and Housing Choice in the U.S. Residential Sector

Energy use in residential buildings accounted for 21% of U.S. CO₂ emissions in 2013. Efforts to reduce energy use in the residential sector have been overly focused on improving energy efficiency of buildings. This article incorporates housing policy debate into energy policy, hoping to provide new opportunities for planners to participate in residential energy policy. Using data from the latest Residential Energy Consumption Survey, structural equation modeling has been applied to isolate the direct and indirect effects of household and housing characteristics on residential energy use. Results show that more than 80% of a household's indirect effect on energy consumption happens through the building characteristics, which is characterized as the housing choice effect on energy consumption. Planners can participate in residential energy management efforts by influencing housing needs and priorities of communities towards more sustainable compact housing units.     

School Quality,Residential Choice,and the U.S. Housing Bubble

Using data from the American Housing Survey (years 2001–2009), we find that purchase prices for homes selected primarily to access self-identified “good schools” rose (relative to homes selected for other reasons) during the key U.S. housing bubble period, compared with the periods before and after the bubble. We observe a similar pattern in homebuyers' mortgage-to-income ratios. Various regression specifications and propensity score matching techniques show that these trends persist conditional on a range of household, demographic, and economic controls. Our results suggest that the strong, bubble-era pursuit of good schools may have played a role in the housing bubble's expansion.     

Affordable Rental Housing Development in the U.S. For-Profit Sector: Implications of a Case Study of McCormack Baron Salazar

The question of how to build decent housing that is affordable to lower income households has challenged policymakers in the United States for decades. In response, the federal government has developed a variety of partnership approaches that involve private for-profit developers. Although these entities are currently the major producers of affordable housing in the United States, they have received relatively little attention from the academic and policy communities. This inquiry is aimed at filing a small portion of this gap by presenting a qualitative case study of one of the country’s leading for-profit developers that has a longstanding commitment to affordable housing, McCormack Baron Salazar. Using a modified version of the quadruple bottom line framework as the starting point, this exploration discusses the complexity and challenges facing the affordable housing sector and offers programmatic and policy recommendations that are applicable to both for-profit and nonprofit developers. In view of the results of the 2016 presidential election, and the likely continued retreat by the federal government from supporting affordable housing, the need to better understand, and form productive working alliances and collaborations with, private for-profit affordable housing developers is more compelling than ever.     

The Impact of Housing Submarkets and Urban Form on the Foreclosure Crisis in U.S. Urban Counties

In this article, the authors introduce a novel way to define and measure housing submarkets in relation to foreclosures. Instead of the traditional methods of identifying submarkets a priori, this study uses an approach that empirically delineates housing submarkets based on spatial contiguity and housing attributes. The spatial clustering algorithm developed for this study identified submarkets in each of the urban counties. A spatial regression model was then used to assess the impact of submarket structure on foreclosure rates. In addition, the study also incorporates a measure of sprawl in its analysis. It was found that sprawling counties are not more likely to have higher rates of foreclosures compared with average rates. However, the counties with smaller and more fragmented housing submarkets are likely to have lower rates of foreclosures. The results suggest that urban form is less consequential than housing market structure in affecting U.S. housing market dynamics.     

Residential Segregation,Housing Submarkets,and Spatial Analysis: St. Louis and Cincinnati as a Case Study

This article considers how spatial analysis of housing submarkets can advance research into residential segregation. While an emphasis on housing submarkets has been proposed as a new construct for modeling housing prices, its use in analyzing residential segregation has been limited. Recent advances in spatial analysis and geographic information systems present new opportunities for researchers to exploit the potential of housing submarkets as constructs that offer a more precise way to examine residential segregation. The article synthesizes literature related to residential segregation and housing submarkets and demonstrates how to delineate housing submarkets using publicly available data. It examines the spatial distribution of housing submarkets and how the socially disadvantaged are represented across housing submarkets in St. Louis, Missouri, and Cincinnati, Ohio, to conclude that St. Louis's housing market is more polarized and racially segregated than Cincinnati's. Spatial analysis of housing submarkets, in conjunction with archival analysis, provides a promising avenue for identifying residential segregation as a multidimensional phenomenon, and a means to explore local processes of urban inequality.     

Measuring What Matters: A Call for a Meaningful Metric of Affordable Rental Housing Production Cost-Efficiency

The metric commonly used in debates and research concerning the cost-efficiency of multifamily rental housing production, total development cost per unit, sacrifices too much analytical power in return for its ease of computation. This article proposes a replacement metric, the subsidy per housing affordability equivalent (SHARE) ratio. This measure is applied to a set of 399 nonprofit-sponsored rental housing developments completed in California over the past decade. Evidence suggests that the use of SHARE would evaluate deeply subsidized family projects and mixed-use projects with commercial space more favorably than total development cost per unit would. The reverse is true for projects restricted to seniors and for those financed with Low-Income Housing Tax Credits.     

Future Prospects for Public Housing in the United States: Lessons From the Rental Assistance Demonstration Program

This article provides an overview of the Rental Assistance Demonstration (RAD) program in the United States and examines its early implementation from its start in 2013 through April 6, 2016. RAD was devised to address the physical deterioration of public housing and secure a more stable funding stream. It requires public housing authorities to shift properties out of the public housing program into a different subsidy program (project-based Section 8) which enables them to obtain mortgages on more favorable terms and to secure tax-credit investment. The program is currently limited to 185,000 housing units. As of April 6th, the program was fully subscribed, and had generated more than $2 billion in new investment. Extrapolating from the early results, RAD has the potential to yield more than $15 billion for fund the redevelopment and renovation of public housing.     

The bounds of smart decline: a foundational theory for planning shrinking cities

Economic decline has led to a new wave of population decline throughout the US, meaning more and more cities are shrinking. Growing interest in using smart decline principles to respond to shrinkage has been met with controversy in cities such as Detroit and Cleveland. This paper advances a foundational theory of smart decline that takes as its starting point discussions of ethics, equity, and social justice in the planning and political theory literature, but is well grounded in observations of successful smart decline practice.     

The changing geography of metropolitan opportunity: The segregation of the poor in U.S. metropolitan areas, 1970 to 1990

Abstract

This analysis uses census tract data to measure the segregation of the poor in U.S. metropolitan areas in 1970, 1980, and 1990. Two measures of segregation are used: the indices of dissimilarity and isolation.

In 1990 the mean dissimilarity of the poor in the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan areas was 36.1, which is substantial but below the 60.6 dissimilarity of blacks. The 1990 isolation of the poor was 21.0. From 1970 to 1990, the dissimilarity of the poor increased by 11 percent, and the isolation of the poor rose by 9 percent; in contrast, racial segregation declined. Exploratory regression analyses reveal that income segregation in metropolitan areas was significantly greater in 1990 and increased more from 1970 to 1990 in the Northeast than in the South and West. Midwest areas generally were not significantly different from Northeast areas in 1990 segregation levels or in changes from 1970 to 1990.     

Addressing Restrictive Zoning for Affordable Housing: Experiences in Four States

Affordable housing development in suburban locales is often constrained by zoning and other municipal land-use restrictions. This article explores experiences in four states that have been recognized for exemplary interventions that address “exclusionary zoning.” Using quantitative and qualitative methods, the article examines overall production levels resulting from the specific program, the extent to which such production is occurring in locales with more White residents and more higher-income residents, and the levels of compliance with state-specified goals, where such goals exist. When possible, cross-state comparisons are provided. Although there are clear signs of progress, with municipalities increasing their affordable housing stocks and with some of this production occurring in locales that probably would not have developed such housing without such state (or county) intervention, the pace has been slow. A number of recommendations are offered for these and other states contemplating strategies to address exclusionary land-use practices.     

Beyond People Versus Place: A Place-Conscious Framework for Investing in Housing and Neighborhoods

This article argues for a next generation of place-conscious strategies that recognize the importance of neighborhoods in the lives of families, but look beyond narrowly defined neighborhood boundaries to address market-wide opportunities and barriers, capitalize on demographic and market trends underway at the regional scale, and envision alternative models of how neighborhoods can function for their residents. It offers five principles for ongoing experimentation and knowledge building: (a) develop citywide strategies that promote both inclusion and redevelopment; (b) anticipate and plan for residential mobility and neighborhood change; (c) connect residents of poor neighborhoods to city and regional opportunities; (d) capitalize on the coming rental housing boom; and (e) use data for continuous learning and accountability. Advancing this agenda will require enhanced capacity for collaboration and governance at the local levels.     

Property and whiteness: the Oregon standoff and the contradictions of the U.S. Settler State

On 2 January 2016, armed anti-government protestors took over the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge (MNWR) in rural Oregon. The takeover of the MNWR is part of a larger, much longer set of movements called the Sagebrush Rebellion that has come to define contemporary white contestations about the federal regulation of lands in the American West. Specifically, we argue that the armed takeover of MNWR is revelatory of the way white supremacy intersects with place in important and consequential ways. In addition, we examine the politics of place and property to interrogate the way settler imaginaries affords settlers a perceived right to property and the land. We contend that this perception, illustrated by the events at Malheur National Wildlife Refuge, is enmeshed within particular conceptions of property, the frontier, and whiteness. The MNWR takeover illuminates how discourses of whiteness and property rights are essential to the ongoing production of white supremacy within the US settler state.     

Performance Measurement in U.S. Counties: Capacity for Reform

This study examines the capacity of U.S. counties to undertake performance measurement. Based on a national survey of counties with populations over 50,000, the authors address the following questions: To what extent do counties implement performance measurement? Which capacities must be present for different levels of implementation and success? What can counties do to increase their capacity for performance measurement? And, what is the effect of county structure and functions on the use of performance measurement? This study finds that the success of performance measurement is greatly affected by counties' underlying organizational capacities.     

Rethinking Locational Outcomes for Housing Choice Vouchers: A Case Study in Duval County,Florida

This study examines locational patterns of housing choice vouchers in Duval County, Florida, using the Housing Suitability Model (HSM), a newly developed geographic information system–based model that evaluates residential land parcels and neighborhoods in terms of their suitability for affordable housing. The HSM was used to characterize voucher locations and other residential parcels across the county in terms of opportunity and accessibility. The analysis explores the tradeoffs between opportunity and accessibility inherent in many neighborhoods throughout the county. It finds that voucher holders' locations lag substantially behind other residential locations in terms of opportunity measures but are more comparable in terms of accessibility. Further analysis finds differences in opportunity and accessibility among subgroups of voucher holders by various demographic characteristics. The study recommends the incorporation of opportunity and accessibility for voucher holders into local housing planning, including the implementation of proposed rules for Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing.     

One Strike to Second Chances: Using Criminal Backgrounds in Admission Decisions for Assisted Housing

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) has changed its position toward housing individuals with criminal records from strict one-strike policies in the 1980s to providing second chances to returning citizens. Many public housing authorities have not updated their admission policies for using criminal backgrounds and still adhere to the one-strike philosophy. In response to new guidance from HUD, housing agencies are trying to find a balance between screening practices to identify demonstrable risk but avoid discrimination and violation of the Fair Housing Act. This research examines several questions critical to assisting housing providers to address the new guidance from HUD. Findings provide direction for housing providers on understanding recidivism risk rates, using useful lookback periods, considering risk and harm across crime types, and verifying rehabilitation and other evidence to design informed policies and procedures for using criminal records in admission decisions for assisted housing.     

Free Wheel,Free Will! The Effects of Bikeshare Systems on Urban Commuting Patterns in the U.S.

Urban bikeshare systems have become increasingly popular in the U.S. in recent years. In this paper, I examine the effects of bikeshare systems on patterns of commuting to and from work in U.S. cities. To study this, I link cities across 2008 through 2016 American Community Survey (ACS) data and estimate the effects of bikeshare systems using both individual-level ACS records and city panel data. Event-study estimates suggest that bikeshare systems lead to a rise in bicycle commuting to and from work, and the effects of bikeshare systems are statistically and economically significant. I also find evidence of modal shifts after the introduction of bikeshare systems: While bicycle commuting rates increase, there is a decline in automobile commuting to and from work.     

Enron/Andersen: Crisis in U.S. Accounting and Lessons for Government

Accounting and auditing play a key role in the belief of ordinary taxpayers and investors in their institutions. This is equally true of the private and governmental sectors. The Enron/Andersen scandal, regrettably, is not an isolated case, but rather merely indicative of underlying, structural flaws in our financial systems. Moreover, there is evidence that some of these flaws may be present in governmental accounting and auditing. The Sarbanes‐Oxley Act of 2002 is an attempt to address these problems in the private sector, but does not address concerns in the public sector. Public sector accounting issues that need to be addressed and monitored include substandard audit work and related liability issues, the appropriate funding of GASB so as to ensure its independence, auditor fees, and auditor independence questions including protection of elected and appointed state auditors.