Discriminators of types of recidivism among boot camp graduates in a five-year follow-up study

This was a five-year follow-up study of 572 male graduates of a boot camp in the South. The purpose was to determine what elements of life-course theory discriminated between four outcomes: (1) nonrecidivists, (2) recidivists with felonies, (3) technical parole violators, and (4) parole violators due to drugs. Findings indicated a relatively accurate classification of the first three outcomes.The discriminators between nonrecidivists and various types of recidivists in the study were indicators of informal social controls such as marriage, employment, children, and religiosity. Discriminators of felony recidivists were early sexual and physical abuse, gang membership, peer association, carrying a weapon, and early onset of crime. Discriminators associated with technical parole violation were attachment to female caregivers, self-esteem and self-efficacy, and perception that boot camp stimulated thinking about choices in life. The conceptual and policy implications of these findings are discussed in detail.     

Distinguishing graduates from dropouts and dismissals: Who fails boot camp?

This study of 784 inmates in a boot camp in a southern state was designed to determine what elements from life-course theory distinguished between graduates, dropouts, and dismissals from the program in this facility. Multinomial logistic regression analysis showed that several social bonds—such as employment, income, marital status—and personal assets like self-efficacy differentiated graduates from dropouts and dismissals from that program. In contrast, selling drugs, illegal income, and carrying a weapon also were associated with graduation.Lack of self-control, drug use, and peer association differentiated dropouts from graduates, whereas history of being abused, emotional problems, and suicidal attempts distinguished dismissals from graduates. The implications of these findings for further research and current decision-making are discussed.     

An experimental study of a therapeutic boot camp: Impact on impulses, attitudes and recidivism

Two hundred thirty four adult male inmates entering prison were randomly assigned to an early release program in either a correctional boot camp or a large, traditional prison in the Maryland state correctional system. Boot camp releasees had marginally lower recidivism compared to those released from the traditional prison. A pre-test, post-test self report survey indicated the boot camp program had little impact on criminogenic characteristics except for a lowering of self control. In contrast, inmates in prison became more antisocial, lower in self control, worse in anger management, and reported more criminal tendencies by the end of their time in prison. Criminogenic attitudes and impulses were significantly associated with recidivism. The impact of the boot camp diminished to non-significance when antisocial attitudes or anger management problems were added to the models predicting recidivism. Implications for jurisdictions considering whether to operate correctional boot camps are discussed.     

Survival models of recidivism among juvenile delinquents

Among juveniles, the probability of recidivism has a curvilinear relationship to age. Rates of reoffending do not simply increase or decrease with age, but rather, they increase as a function of age up to a certain point of peak activity and decrease with increasing age thereafter. Because of this, the forms of recidivism functions between cohorts of widely varying ages will differ considerably. This renders inapplicable one model for the analysis of recidivism rates which assumes proportional hazards (Cox proportional hazards regression models). Appropriate models will posit curved nonmonotonic hazard functions. This paper compares fits of the exponential, Weibull, and log-normal models to recidivism data collected on samples of chronic juvenile offenders and finds generally closer estimation of the recidivism functions using the latter model. Implications for the development of models of recidivism are discussed.     

A study of criminal justice policymakers' perspectives: The forgotten component in boot camp programs and goals

Does occupation (sheriff, prosecutor, prison administrator, or parole/probation official) influence selection of boot camp components; especially the traditional positions of “punishers,” usually sheriffs and prosecuting attorneys, and “reformers,” usually prison and probation? As part of a larger study and at the request of the Missouri Department of Corrections, 670 questionnaires were mailed to all Missouri sheriffs, prosecutors, selected prison administrators, probation/parole staff, all public defenders, selected legislatures, and judges in Missouri. Respondents were asked to rank potential boot camp goals and programs using a Likert-type preferences scale of 1 = low preference to 5 = high preference. Three hundred fifty-three were returned, for a return rate of 53 percent. Using the Missouri survey data, the research question for this article was: Did occupation influence selection of boot camp components? To test the association of occupation with selection, a shorter list was compiled from the Missouri survey data of six typical “punishment” items and six typical “reform” items as selected from the literature. Means and a t-test of significance were calculated. Results showed traditional positions of “punishment” and “reform” did not drive program choices. Preference for “reform” items by all occupations was higher than preference for “punishment” items. Results showed a potential shift away from the early military - punishment style of early boot camps. Correctional agencies thinking of reconfiguring or building new boot camps could use the results as a guide.     

The parole performance of offenders released from shock incarceration (boot camp prisons): A survival time analysis

The parole performance of offenders who were released after successfully completing a shock incarceration program was examined and compared to the performance of offenders who were serving time on probation or parole after a period of incarceration. Separate survival analyses were performed for recidivism as measured by (1) arrests and (2) failures (jailed, absconded, or revoked). Prior incarceration, age, age at first arrest, and risk assessment score were related to recidivism but type of sentence was not. Intensity of supervision was significantly related to recidivism but this relationship was eliminated when risk level was controlled. There was no evidence that shock incarceration reduces recidivism. Future research should focus on methods of reducing failures during community supervision for these young, nonviolent offenders within the framework of either a shock incarceration program or some other sentence.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the American Probation and Parole Association 14th Annual Training Institute, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, August 1989.     

Estimating the numbers of prison terms in criminal careers from one-step probabilities of recidivism

A method of using estimates of one-step probabilities of recidivism, i.e., conditional probabilities of individuals returning to prison for the jth time given release for the (j-1)st time, to estimate the numbers of prison terms expected to be accumulated by the individuals, is presented. The method is illustrated by calculating the expected numbers of prison terms separately for racial and gender groups in a large data base of Western Australian prisoners. The recidivism probabilities for these data were estimated by fitting Weibull mixture models to the (possibly censored) times to recidivate. The probabilities increase strongly asj increases from 1 to 6, then level off. Large differences between them are due to racial and gender group and these are reflected in the differing expected prison career durations for these groups. The effect of interventions which might lower recidivism is discussed in the light of the method as applied to these estimates.     

Forensic science and criminal justice: An analysis of curricular models

The multi-disciplinary field of forensic science frequently finds its academic home within criminal justice programs. After examining the reasons for this academic linkage, an analysis of criminal justice curricular models and courses was undertaken to assess their applicability to forensic science education and careers. The authors concluded that the relationship between criminal justice and forensic science can be mutually beneficial; however, most criminal justice programs do not provide adequate preparation for meaningful careers in forensic science.     

The impact of program developers as evaluators on criminal recidivism: Results from meta-analyses of experimental and quasi-experimental research

Using meta-analysis, we report on an investigation of the evaluator's influence in the treatment setting on criminal recidivism outcomes. Many evaluators and users of evaluation of social interventions worry that mixing of the roles of program developer and program evaluator may bias results reported in intervention studies in a positive direction. We first review the results of prior investigations of this issue across 50 prior meta-analyses, finding 12 that tested the impact of investigator influence in the treatment setting. Eleven of these reported that effect size increased positively, sometimes substantially so, when evaluators were influential or involved in the treatment setting. We followed this with a meta-analysis of 300 randomized field trials in individually focused crime reduction, also finding intervention studies in which evaluators who were greatly influential in the treatment setting report consistently and substantially larger effect sizes than other types of evaluators. We discuss two major views — the ‘cynical’ and ‘high fidelity’ theories — on why this is consistently the case, and conclude with a further agenda for research.     

Long-term follow-up of criminal recidivism in young sex offenders: Temporal patterns and risk factors

Abstract

Recent studies indicate that risk for criminal re-offending in identified adult sex offenders may persist decades after the index offence, calling for inquiry into these issues also for younger sex offenders. The author studied temporal patterns for criminal reconvictions and the validity of 16 empirically motivated risk factors for recidivism among all young sex offenders (15–20 years of age) subjected to pre-sentence forensic psychiatric evaluations in Sweden during 1980–1995 (N = 126). The Ss were followed from release and for an average of 115 months. One-hundred-and-seventeen (115 male, 2 female) Ss were available for follow-up with a mean time-at-risk of 80 months. Base rates for sexual and violent non-sexual reconvictions were 30% and 42%, respectively. Using time-at-risk-adjusted hazard ratios derived from Cox regression, characteristics indicative of deviant sexual interest (any previous sex offending behaviour, an index sex offence in a public area, involving a stranger victim, offending on two or more offence occasions, and two or more victims) were found to increase the risk for sexual recidivism. Markers of antisocial lifestyle (early signs of DSM-IV Conduct Disorder and any prior violent conviction), sex offence-related characteristics indicating aggression proneness (use of threats or force and physical victim injury), and victim penetration, increased the risk for violent non-sexual reconvictions. Survival analyses indicated that the rate of sexual reconvictions as a function of time at risk decreased distinctly after 6–7 years whereas the rate for violent non-sexual reconvictions remained largely the same.     

The factors associated with criminal recidivism in Finnish male offenders: importance of neurocognitive deficits and substance dependence

Neurocognitive deficits and psychiatric disorders are often brought up as risk factors of recidivism. In this study, we investigated how neurocognitive and academic deficits and psychiatric disorders (including substance dependence) are associated with criminal recidivism and prison career among male offenders. In a health survey of Finnish prisoners, 72 sentenced male prisoners were examined in Turku prison using a neurocognitive test battery and psychiatric assessment including a standardized psychiatric interview (SCID-I, II). The neurocognitive and academic tests were chosen to assess domains of cognitive functioning and reading, spelling and mathematical skills. Our results showed that the combination of neurocognitive deficits and substance dependence was connected to recidivism. Axis I diagnosis (major mental disorders) and substance dependence were connected with neurocognitive and academic deficits. Moreover, first-time offenders had fewer neurocognitive deficits and Axis I disorders, less substance dependence and fewer personality disorders than those with several convictions. Rehabilitation of cognitive functions and academic skills, along with intervention for mental health problems and substance dependence could help to prevent the unfavourable circle of criminal career.     

A cross-sectional study on expression of anger and factors associated with criminal recidivism in prisoners with prior offences

Objective: The purpose of this study is to determine demographical characteristics leading to crime recidivism and define anger levels and anger expression manners for those who re-commit crime.Method: All the literate inmates in zmit Closed Penitentiary were included in this cross-sectional study. The prisoners were asked to respond to State-Trait Anger Expression Inventory. Their socio-demographic data were collected and a questionnaire was given to them to determine their state of imprisonment, sentence, nature of the crime in which they were involved, their criminal history, their relationship with inmates and prison staff and substance and alcohol use.Results: Of the 438 prisoners, 302 (68.9%) responded to the questionnaires. Crime recidivism among the study cohort was observed to be 37.4%.Mean trait anger, anger out and anger in scores were significantly higher in prisoners with criminal recidivism in comparison with those who did not have prior criminal records. However, mean anger control scores for prisoners with or without criminal recidivism were similar. Unemployment, education level completed at secondary school or below, having committed a crime under the influence of alcohol or narcotics, having been involved in prison fights, having resisted police officers, caused damage in their vicinity when angry and violent crimes were all found to be possible causes of criminal recidivism. Educational level completed at secondary school or below, getting into fights with other prisoners, unemployment and resisting police officers were determined to be the strongest indicators to predict criminal recidivism when all variables were considered according to a logistic regression model.Conclusion: It can be proposed that those who have problems with officials or hostile towards others constitute a risk group for criminal recidivism. If prisoners with criminal recidivism can be helped to identify and control their anger, their risk of committing a new crime can be minimised.     

A cross-sectional study on expression of anger and factors associated with criminal recidivism in prisoners with prior offences

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to determine demographical characteristics leading to crime recidivism and define anger levels and anger expression manners for those who re-commit crime. METHOD: All the literate inmates in Izmit Closed Penitentiary were included in this cross-sectional study. The prisoners were asked to respond to State-Trait Anger Expression Inventory. Their socio-demographic data were collected and a questionnaire was given to them to determine their state of imprisonment, sentence, nature of the crime in which they were involved, their criminal history, their relationship with inmates and prison staff and substance and alcohol use. RESULTS: Of the 438 prisoners, 302 (68.9%) responded to the questionnaires. Crime recidivism among the study cohort was observed to be 37.4%. Mean trait anger, anger out and anger in scores were significantly higher in prisoners with criminal recidivism in comparison with those who did not have prior criminal records. However, mean anger control scores for prisoners with or without criminal recidivism were similar. Unemployment, education level completed at secondary school or below, having committed a crime under the influence of alcohol or narcotics, having been involved in prison fights, having resisted police officers, caused damage in their vicinity when angry and violent crimes were all found to be possible causes of criminal recidivism. Educational level completed at secondary school or below, getting into fights with other prisoners, unemployment and resisting police officers were determined to be the strongest indicators to predict criminal recidivism when all variables were considered according to a logistic regression model. CONCLUSION: It can be proposed that those who have problems with officials or hostile towards others constitute a risk group for criminal recidivism. If prisoners with criminal recidivism can be helped to identify and control their anger, their risk of committing a new crime can be minimised.     

Jaccard's heel: Radex models of criminal behaviour are rarely falsifiable when derived using Jaccard coefficient

Purpose. This article considers whether the modular facet of popular ‘radex’ models of offender behaviour is falsifiable or a statistical inevitability when using Jaccard coefficient, as evidence from other domains suggests. Method. Data equivalent to that examined in previous papers, and artificial data varying on four parameters, were examined using the conventional procedure of deriving Jaccard coefficients and submitting these to a smallest space analyses (SSA‐I). The parameters were number of variables, number of cases, highest frequency of variable occurrence, and distribution of occurrences. Evidence of a modular pattern in each SSA‐I solution was assessed using one qualitative and two quantitative measures. Results. When variables were free to occur in more than 50% of cases, none of the Jaccard‐based SSA‐I solutions supported the null hypothesis of no modular facet. This contrasts equivalent analyses using Yules Q, where 95.7% of the solutions supported the null hypothesis. When variables were restricted to occur in less than 50% of cases, the number of solutions supporting the null hypothesis changes to .003 and 78%, respectively. Analyses of the artificial data found that reducing the number of variables in a Jaccard‐based solution increased the likelihood of supporting the null hypothesis, which suggests that these solutions are structured by variable occurrence (i.e., frequency) rather than variable co‐occurrence. Implications. Research using Jaccard coefficient to measure co‐occurrences among behaviours should not claim that the modular facet of their radex model is an empirical finding. Unfortunately, this is many of the existing publications.     

Predicting dropout from a residential programme for adolescent sexual abusers using pre-treatment variables and implications for recidivism

Abstract

This study addresses the prediction that dropout from a UK specialized residential treatment program for adolescent sexual abusers can be determined from pre-treatment variables. Participants were 49 adolescents aged 12–16?years, who had sexually abused children, peers/adults or both. Of the variables examined, 25 showed a significant association with treatment dropout. A scale, consisting of 20 items, was designed to predict treatment dropout. As a measure it showed internal consistency (alpha?=?0.84) and predictive validity. Treatment dropout was linked to a greater risk of recidivism: offences of a general; violent; and combined violent or sexual nature. Missing data confounded the overall small sample size; therefore, a brief checklist of factors associated with dropout was produced as a guide for treatment managers and clinicians.     

The effect of shock and regular probation upon recidivism: A comparative analysis

Previous studies of shock probation have reported mixed effects with regard to recidivism rates. This particular study compared the attributes of a sample of shock and regular probationers and discovered that type of probation was not significantly related to rearrest rates.