Returning to Delinquency: Factors Effecting the Survivorship of Juvenile Shoplifters

This article examines a program designed to provide a family court with a means of lessening the probability that youths on probation for shoplifting will return to criminal behavior. A single staff member within the family court screened possible participants, all of whom were defined as first-time shoplifting offenders and had been assigned to formal or informal probation. Each individual was invited to participate in a four-hour clinic, during which time the realities and possible consequences of shoplifting were explained. If they were able to successfully complete six months of supervised probation, then only the administrative record remained; the conviction itself was expunged. Over a period of nine months, a total of 154 juveniles were invited; however, only 100 actually took part in all facets of the program. A total of 30 clinic attendees and 14 nonparticipants were excluded from the present analysis, owing to missing data, or the fact that at the time of follow-up, they were legally classified as adults. The prior and subsequent court contacts of 110 subjects are reviewed. While less than 3% of either group had subsequent shoplifting arrests, nearly 26% of the program group and 35% of the nonparticipants were rearrested. Factors associated with long-term success and failure are examined. Possible reasons for these observations are discussed, with specific grounding in the shoplifting literature and the concepts of juvenile diversion and “net-widening.”     

Under the skin of probation: A statewide analysis

This analysis examines the inter- and intra-racial/ethnicity effects of skin tone variations in a sample of probationers across three dependent variables: probation length, successful completion, and revocation due to technical violations. Darker tones were linked to shorter probation terms with the exception of African Americans, among whom no effect was found. Darker tones were also associated with a decreased likelihood of successful probation completion. Conversely, probation success likelihood was higher among light skinned Hispanics. Finally, lighter tones were also associated with increased risks of probation revocation. Importantly, across the analysis any significant effects for Whites dissipated once Hispanics were removed from the analysis. Explanations of the contrary findings are offered drawing from scholarship on normal crimes and racial threat.     

A study of the outcomes of probation officers and risk-screening instruments classifications

Risk-screening instruments have become quite popular in assisting probation officers in determining the level of supervision which their clients should receive while they serve their sentence in the community. This study compares the outcome of probation officers' classifications with predictions of likelihood of success derived from four risk-screening instruments. The results indicate that probation officers' predictions were better than two of the risk-screening instruments, were as accurate as another, and not as accurate as the fourth in determining the probability that the probationer would successfully complete the terms of probation. The findings of this study are discussed in terms of the cost issue involved in classifying offenders for probation supervision.     

Police-probation partnerships: Professional identity and the sharing of coercive power

As formal police-probation partnerships become more commonplace, the occasional incompatibility of police and probation functions becomes increasingly obvious. Understanding how police-probation partnerships create unique pressures on officers and ultimately reconciling the real or perceived incompatibility of police and probation objectives is an important prerequisite to partnership success. Few studies had considered how inter-agency collaborations have the potential to alter the role distinctions between police and probation officers and how the quality, diversity, and effectiveness of the services that they provide may be compromised or enhanced. This study, based on interviews with police and probation officers participating in a formally organized police-probation partnership in Spokane, Washington considered how close working relationships may influence the professional orientations of the participating officers. Findings suggest that tension between organizational objectives threatens to create an imbalance of power between partnership participants.     

Recidivism in Stalking and Obsessional Harassment

Despite the rapidly growth of mental health attention focused on the phenomenon of stalking, no empirical research to date has attempted to assess the frequency of repeat offending or attempted to identify predictors of recidivism. A total of 148 stalking and harassment offenders who were court-ordered to undergo a mental health evaluation were followed for a period of 2.5–13 years in order to assess the frequency of repeat offenses and the variables that differentiated high versus low risk offenders. Recidivism data were obtained from a variety of sources, including criminal justice records, mental health records, and reports from probation officers and victims. A number of potential predictor variables were selected on the basis of the existing recidivism literature in other criminal justice populations. Frequency analysis were used to identify variables that significantly differentiated offenders who did and did not reoffend while survival analysis was used to analyze the impact of these covariates on time to reoffense. A total of 49% of the offenders reoffended during the follow-up period, 80% of whom reoffended during the first year. The strongest predictors of recidivism included the presence of a personality disorder, and in particular, a Cluster B personality disorder (i.e., antisocial, borderline, and/or narcissistic). In addition, those offenders with both a personality disorder and a history of substance abuse were significantly more likely to reoffend compared to either of these risk factors alone. Surprisingly, the presence of a delusional disorder (e.g., erotomania) was associated with a lower risk of reoffender. The findings are discussed in terms of the legal system and treatment implications.     

Officially recorded convictions for probationers: The relationship with self‐report and supervisory observations

Objectives. For the past 20–25 years the assessment of the outcomes of probation supervision and its associated variants has relied upon officially recorded offending as the chief determinant of ‘success’ and ‘failure’. A recent assessment of the impact of accredited programmes aimed at reducing offending called for reconviction rates to be supplemented with other outcome measures to give a more accurate picture of treatment effectiveness. Methods. Self‐reports of offending are one such alternative outcome measure, and this paper responds to recent calls for developments in this field. This paper throws further light on the frequency of offending by probationers during their probation orders, the extent to which their officers knew of this offending and the relationship between self‐reported offending and subsequent convictions. Results. The data suggest that about a half of the probationers committed at least one offence during the time they were on probation and that about a third of the probationers reported that they had committed more than four offences during this same time. In the main, probation officers reports mirrored the reports gained from the probationers. Generally speaking, the relationship between self‐reported offending and officially recorded convictions was also very close. However, this varied by the offences/convictions under consideration. Conclusion. There were slightly more probationers found guilty of property offences than had admitted to such offending during their interviews. The explanation for this appeared to have been deliberate concealment on the part of the probationer, rather than recall failure.     

Factors Associated with the One-year Probation Outcome: A Self-report Study in Hong Kong

Why are some probationers able to comply with the sentence? Why do some fail to do so? In order to answer these questions, the article examines cross-sectional data collected from a selected group of Chinese offenders who were put on a one-year probation sentence in Hong Kong. It, in particular, aims at identifying the relative effects of four types of predictors, namely demographic, socio-economic, criminal history and probation intervention, on the probation outcome. For the purpose of this study, the probation outcome is the self-report data of the probationer at the end of the sentence. Logistic regression analyses revealed that self-reported reoffending was significantly related to peer involvement in criminal activities and triad association, a previous probation sentence, a urine test requirement and the offenders’ positive view of probation officers.     

Brief motivation enhancing intervention to prevent criminal recidivism in substance-abusing offenders under supervision: a randomized trial

The goal of this study was to assess the effect of a brief motivation enhancing intervention (MEI) on criminal recidivism. This was a multi-site, cluster-randomized clinical trial in six addiction probation offices. We randomized 73 probation officers (37 to intervention, 36 to control) and followed 220 substance-abusing repeat offenders that were allocated to them (111 intervention, 109 control). We report three measures of recidivism rate (self-report, police records, and combination of either of the two) and time to re-offending (police records) during a 12-month follow-up period. The proportion of re-offending and time to re-offending was not significantly different between offenders that received supervision plus intervention and those that received supervision-as-usual (SAU, no intervention). Our findings provide no evidence that supervision plus a brief MEI is more effective than SAU.     

Predictors of sexual aggression among male juvenile offenders

The purpose of this study was to conduct a longitudinal examination of predictors of sexual aggression among male juvenile offenders. Four hundred and four adolescent males between the ages of 14 and 17 years were recruited from juvenile probation offices to take part in a prospective study of substance use and sexual risk. At baseline, participants completed a series of questionnaires that assessed putative risk factors for sexual aggression. They then completed a measure of sexual aggression at the 6-month follow-up period. Correlational analyses revealed that participants who reported hard drug use, more frequent alcohol and marijuana use, and less severe offenses reported engaging in more severe sexual aggression. In addition, participants who reported higher impulsivity, sensation seeking, and externalizing behaviors also reported participating in more severe sexual aggression. When these variables were included in a regression analysis, only externalizing behaviors and severity of offense uniquely predicted severity of sexual aggression at the 6-month follow-up.     

The effect of shock and regular probation upon recidivism: A comparative analysis

Previous studies of shock probation have reported mixed effects with regard to recidivism rates. This particular study compared the attributes of a sample of shock and regular probationers and discovered that type of probation was not significantly related to rearrest rates.     

Probation absconders: A unique risk group?

While examination of probation violations is common in the literature, probationers who abscond from community supervision have rarely been examined. These violators are circumventing justice and may pose a serious risk to public safety. This article compares the characteristics of absconders to those of offenders who successfully completed probation and offenders revoked from probation because of other violations. Absconders and revoked probationers generally presented the least favorable risk profiles, but did not differ significantly from one another on probation conditions, “stakes in conformity,” or prior felonies—although revoked probationers had more misdemeanors and a younger age of onset for officially recorded crime. Combined with the violation behaviors of absconders while on probation, these similarities suggest a strong chance of being revoked to prison had absconders remained under supervision. Employment, recorded address changes, and lower supervision burden on offenders were among the best predictors of successfully completing probation versus absconding.     

Probation system in Turkey: an analysis of a public policy formation using multiple streams framework

Turkey initiated a major reform in its criminal justice system in 2005 and a probation system was officially created. This article analyses the probation policy formation, and development processes in Turkey using a multiple streams framework (MSF), as theorised by John Kingdon. Qualitative method is employed through archival records, governmental documents, and semi-structured interviews with key actors. Findings suggest that MSF explains the evolution of the probation system, which emerged in a critical time. However, although the probation system was set up to overcome the increasing prison population and alternative to incarceration, the number of prisoners and probationers have increased significantly. Today, Turkey has been ranked one of the largest prison population in the world. It is concluded that the penal policy has led to unintended consequences, and the penal system including probation practices has been dramatically politicised by the government.     

Designed to fail: Self-control and involvement in the criminal justice system

This study investigates self-control theory using official and selfreported criminal records of 500 adult offenders. Four items derived from rapsheets (aliases, date of birth, place of birth, and social security number) are used as indicators of the self-control construct. Negative binomial regression models indicate a significant inverse relationship between self-control and escape arrests, failure to appear violations, probation and parole violations, felony convictions, and prison sentences. Since system involvement entails discipline, tenacity, and responsibility, offenders with low self-control are more likely to experience a criminal justice system failure.     

Predicting Probationer Rates of Reincarceration Using Dynamic Factors from the Substance Abuse Questionnaire-Adult Probation III (SAQ-Adult Probation III)

Individuals incarcerated for violating the terms of their probation constitute a large portion of the prison population. Intervention programs designed to rehabilitate probationers have the potential to reduce prison populations and moderate the costs associated with incarceration. Unlike previous research, which has focused on demographic and static characteristics, the present study examined dynamic factors as predictors of probation revocation, as they may be more amenable to rehabilitation. The sample was comprised of 8,310 adult probationers and used scores from the SAQ-Adult Probation III. Poisson regression analyses showed that three dynamic factors, violence, antisocial behavior, and stress risk were positively related to the number of lifetime probation revocations. These results are discussed in light of potential rehabilitative benefits.     

Recidivism among drug offenders: A survival analysis of the effects of offender characteristics,type of offense,and two types of intervention

The determinants of recidivism are increasingly becoming the focus of public concern. This study explores the relative effect of type of intervention, offender characteristics, and type of incident offense on time to a petition to revoke probation and time to a probation revocation. Our analysis of intervention effects includes both parametric and nonparametric estimation procedures. Estimating five distributional forms of survival and a proportional hazard model for each measure of recidivism, the analysis indicates no difference in the effect of a program of drug monitoring and treatment, compared to drug monitoring only, for either of the two measures of recidivism. In addition, findings indicate that younger offenders and African American offenders have a shorter time to a petition to revoke probation. We also found a reduced time to failure for a probation revocation for African American offenders and offenders with a prior arrest record. Our findings offer empirical support for a reconsideration of the type of intervention effective in deterring offenders while on probation.     

Community Solutions for the Community's Problem: An Evaluation of Three New Zealand Community-Based Treatment Programs for Child Sexual Offenders

The recidivism rate of 203 people mandated by the courts to attend three community-based child sexual offender treatment programs (175 treatment cases and 28 assessment-only cases) was assessed and compared with a probation comparison group. The recidivism rate was 8.1% for all participants treated in the community-based programs and 5.2% for participants who completed treatment. The recidivism rate for program attendees was approximately half that of those in the probation comparison group. The drop-out rate for treatment appears to be relatively high (45%) and noncompletion was associated with higher recidivism. These results indicate significantly better outcomes for offenders receiving specialized treatment and are consistent with, and toward the lower end of, recidivism rates reported in local and international evaluation studies.     

The Game of Probation

The structure, purpose, and procedure of probation, including the relationship between a probationer and a probation officer, are explained and discussed. The game theory model of decision-making and rational choice theory are discussed and applied to the relationship between a probationer and a probation officer as a basis for increasing the probationer’s likelihood of success. Applications and recommendations for both parties officers are discussed.     

Legal, Individual, and Environmental Predictors of Court Disposition in a Sample of Serious Adolescent Offenders

Historically, the juvenile court has been expected to consider each youth's distinct rehabilitative needs in the dispositional decision-making process, rather than focusing on legal factors alone. This study examines the extent to which demographic, psychological, contextual, and legal factors, independently predict dispositional outcomes (i.e., probation vs. confinement) within two juvenile court jurisdictions (Philadelphia, Phoenix). The sample consists of 1,355 14- to 18-year-old male and female juvenile offenders adjudicated of a serious criminal offense. Results suggest that legal factors have the strongest influence on disposition in both jurisdictions. For example, a higher number of prior court referrals is associated with an increased likelihood of secure confinement in both jurisdictions. Juveniles adjudicated of violent offenses are more likely to receive secure confinement in Phoenix, but are more likely to be placed on probation in Philadelphia. Race is unrelated to dispositional outcome, but, males are consistently more likely than females to be placed in secure confinement. Importantly, individual factors (e.g., developmental maturity) generally were not powerful independent predictors of disposition. Finally, an examination of the predictors of juvenile versus adult court transfer in Phoenix indicated that males, older juveniles, and those with a violent adjudicated charge were more likely to be transferred to adult court, while juveniles scoring high on responsibility as well as those juveniles with an alcohol dependence diagnosis were more likely to be retained in juvenile court.     

USING RANDOM JUDGE ASSIGNMENTS TO ESTIMATE THE EFFECTS OF INCARCERATION AND PROBATION ON RECIDIVISM AMONG DRUG OFFENDERS*

Most prior studies of recidivism have used observational data to estimate the causal effect of imprisonment or probation on the probability that a convicted individual is rearrested after release. Few studies have taken advantage of the fact that, in some jurisdictions, defendants are assigned randomly to judges who vary in sentencing tendencies. This study investigates whether defendants who are assigned randomly to more punitive judges have different recidivism probabilities than defendants who are assigned to relatively lenient judges. We track 1,003 defendants charged with drug-related offenses who were assigned randomly to nine judicial calendars between June 1, 2002 and May 9, 2003. Judges on these calendars meted out sentences that varied substantially in terms of prison and probation time. We tracked defendants using court records across a 4-year period after the disposition of their cases to determine whether they subsequently were rearrested. Our results indicate that randomly assigned variations in prison and probation time have no detectable effect on rates of rearrest. The findings suggest that, at least among those facing drug-related charges, incarceration and supervision seem not to deter subsequent criminal behavior.     

Significant Gender Differences in Factors Related to the Detention of Youthful Offenders

An important priority of the U.S. juvenile justice system is to reduce the number of youthful offenders who are placed into secure detention placement. Though significant research examining these predictors exists, there is limited analysis of gender-specific predictors. Using existing juvenile court and mental health assessment case records of 433 youthful offenders from two Midwestern U.S. counties, this study sought to identify separately for males and females the legal (including number of delinquency adjudications, age at first delinquency adjudication, number of court offenses, and type of offense) and extralegal (including demographic, maltreatment, mental health, and school-related disabilities) factors that impact recidivism to detention placement. Multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that the predictors of recidivism leading to repeat secure detention placement were indeed different for males and females, although there were some shared predictors. For both genders, the number of court offenses and having a previous suicide attempt were significant predictors. In addition, for females, having a diagnosis of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and a misdemeanor offense were protective against recidivism. For males, three other variables significantly predicted recidivism: age, race, and a conduct disorder diagnosis.