Predictive validity of the dynamic risk assessment and management system in individuals with intellectual disability residing in the community

Background. The Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management System (DRAMS) was created to measure dynamic risk in individuals with intellectual disabilities (ID). Steptoe, Lindsay, Murphy, and Young, (2008) examined the construct validity, reliability and predictive validity of the dynamic risk assessment and management system (DRAMS) in offenders with intellectual disability and found that the total DRAMS score and sections on mood, antisocial behaviour and intolerance/agreeableness predicted incidents with a medium effect size for offenders with ID residing in high secure settings.     

Risk assessment in offenders with intellectual disability: a comparison across three levels of security

In mainstream offender samples, several risk assessments have been evaluated for predictive validity. This study extends this work to male offenders with intellectual disabilities. Participants from high-, medium-, and low-security settings, as well as community settings, were compared on a range of risk assessments. The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, HCR-20-Historical Scale, the Risk Matrix 2000-C (combined risk), and the Emotional Problems Scales-Internalising discriminated between groups, with participants from high security having higher scores than those in medium security, who had higher scores than those in the community. The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, all HCR-20 scales, the Short Dynamic Risk Scale, and the Emotional Problems Scales (Internalising and Externalising) showed significant areas under the curve for the prediction of violence. The Static-99 showed a significant area under the curve for the prediction of sexual incidents. The discussion reviews the value of these various scales to intellectual disability services.     

Locus of control and sex offenders with an intellectual disability

Locus of control has been implicated as an important construct that is related to treatment outcome for several groups of offenders, including sexual offenders. However, little attention has been paid to how this construct is related to sexual offending by people with intellectual disabilities. Given this, 41 participants with intellectual disabilities were recruited into three groups: sex offenders who had undergone psychological treatment, sex offenders who had no history of treatment, and nonoffenders. All participants completed measures of locus of control and distorted cognitions. There was a significant difference between those who had and had not completed treatment in terms of cognitive distortions relating to sexual offending. There was no significant difference between the three groups on the measure of locus of control, with all three groups endorsing an external locus of control. Three possible explanations for how locus of control relates to sexual offending by people with intellectual disabilities is explored and discussed.     

Socially desirable responding and psychometric assessment of dynamic risk in sexual offenders against children

Does socially desirable responding (SDR) represent a threat to the validity of dynamic risk assessment in sex offenders’ self-reports? We studied a sample of men (N?=?218) who completed a psychometric assessment battery while enrolled at Kia Marama, a prison-based treatment program for sexual offenders against children. SDR, as measured by the Marlowe-Crowne scale, was elevated compared to non-offender samples, increased from pre- to post-treatment, and was negatively correlated with dynamic risk (rs?=??.30 to ?.40), consistent with previous research. Measures of dynamic risk factors derived from the psychometric battery were correlated with sexual recidivism, but correlations were little changed when variance associated with SDR was removed using a regression procedure [Mills, J. F., &; Kroner, D. G. (2006). Impression management and self-report among violent offenders. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 21(2), 178–192.]. These results suggest that there is a substantial component of the variance in psychometric self-reports of sexual offenders that is associated with SDR (approximately 10%), but that it does not compromise the predictive or construct validity of dynamic risk measures derived from these reports.     

Cross-validation of the Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ): an offender risk and need assessment measure on Australian, British, Canadian, Singaporean, and American offenders

The Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ) is a 72-item self-report measure designed to predict violent and nonviolent recidivism among adult criminal offenders. The results from using samples from Australia, Canada, England, Singapore, and two samples from the United States (North Carolina and Pennsylvania) indicated that (a) the SAQ has sound psychometric properties, with acceptable reliability and concurrent validity for assessing recidivism and institutional adjustment; (b) there were no significant differences among the scores of the White, African American, Hispanic, and Aboriginal Australian offenders on the SAQ; (c) there were no significant differences among offenders who completed the SAQ for research purposes versus offenders who completed it as part of a decision-making process. Results provided support for the validity of the SAQ to be used with the culturally diverse offenders involved in this research and provided further evidence that contradicts concerns that the SAQ as a self-report measure may be susceptible to lying, and self-presentation biases.     

The predictive validity of criminogenic needs for male and female offenders: Comparing the relative impact of needs in predicting recidivism

Most instruments used to assess offenders' risk of recidivism were developed and validated on male samples. Use of these instruments with female offenders is, however, common practice. This use with female offenders implies the assumption that the risk of recidivism can be predicted on the basis of the same risk factors for women as for men. Yet, this implied gender-neutrality of offender risk instruments has been the topic of much debate. This study compared criminogenic needs in male and female offenders and their relevance in predicting recidivism. A large sample of male and female offenders (N = 16,239) charged with a range of index offenses was studied. Results mainly support the gender neutrality of existing offender risk and needs assessment. However, results do suggest that some criminogenic needs may indeed have a different impact on recidivism for men and women. Problems with accommodation, education and work, and relationships with friends were more strongly correlated to general recidivism in men than in women. For women, difficulties with emotional well-being had a stronger correlation with recidivism than for men. In addition, relative to all other criminogenic needs, problems with emotional well-being were more important for women than for men in predicting general as well as violent recidivism. However, because the bivariate correlation for female offenders between emotional difficulties and recidivism is weak (as it is for male offenders), the question remains whether the relative importance of emotional difficulties in predicting recidivism in women actually has clinical relevance. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).     

A review of dynamic variables and their relationship to risk prediction in sex offenders

In recent years, a good deal of attention has been paid to the question of recidivism in sex offenders, with an emphasis on the pool of identified static variables associated with risk. The paper aims to review the developing evidence-base for dynamic (changeable) variables, describing their clinical and research characteristics. It also considers the relationship between dynamic domains and apparently fixed developmental variables, such as attachment and victimization experiences. Three main models are presented, and examined in terms of their ability to enhance static prediction models. Results would suggest that there are four dynamic domains, which can predict sexual recidivism independently of static risk prediction, and that these domains should be of central consideration in the continuing development of treatment programmes.     

Design,development and validity testing of the gang affiliation risk measure (GARM)

This study aimed to create a measure of risk for gang affiliation, for use in the UK. A pilot stage invited gang affiliated and non-gang affiliated participants between the ages of 16–25 years to retrospectively self-report on 58 items of risk exposure at the age of 11 years. Based on performance of these items, a 26-item measure was developed and administered to a main study sample (n = 185) of gang affiliated and non-gang affiliated participants. Categorical Principal Component Analysis was applied to data, yielding a single-factor solution (historic lack of safety and current perception of threat). A 15-item gang affiliation risk measure (GARM) was subsequently created. The GARM demonstrated good internal consistency, construct validity and discriminative ability. Items from the GARM were then transformed to read prospectively, resulting in a test measure for predictive purposes (T-GARM). The T-GARM requires further validation regarding its predictive utility and generalisability. However, this study has resulted in the first measure of gang affiliation, with promising results.     

Differences in the predictive validity of actuarial risk assessments in relation to sex offender type

This study seeks to expand on the previously reported validity of the Static-99, RRASOR, MnSOST-R, and SORAG in predicting sexual recidivism utilizing a regional sample of offenders. The predictive validity of each test was determined utilizing subgroups of the sample based on each offender's known offense history. The effectiveness of each instrument varied depending on offender type. The Static-99 and SORAG were both significantly predictive of sexual, violent, and any recidivism for extra-familial child molesters, and all four tests were predictive of violent or any recidivism in this subgroup. For incest offenders, all four tests were at least moderately predictive of sexual recidivism, whereas the Static-99 and the SORAG were highly predictive of violent or any recidivism. None of the four tests established consistent predictive validity across recidivism categories in regard to rapists or hands-off offenders, however, the Static-99 and the SORAG were significant in terms of sexual recidivism.     

Family violence risk assessment: A predictive cross-validation study of the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument-Revised (DVSI-R)

This research was a cross-validation study of the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument-Revised (DVSI-R), using a diverse, statewide sample of 3,569 family violence perpetrators in Connecticut, assessed in February and March of 2007. It analyzed re-arrest data collected during an 18-month period post assessment. Three issues were central, which have been ignored in previous research on family violence risk assessment: (1) analyzing five refined measures of behavioral recidivism, (2) determining whether perpetrator characteristics and types of family and household relationships (beyond just heterosexual intimate partners) moderate the empirical relations between the DVSI-R and the behavioral recidivism measures, and (3) determining whether structured clinical judgment about the imminent risk of future violence to the victim or to others corresponds with recidivism predicted by the DVSI-R total numeric risk scores. The empirical findings showed that the DVSI-R had significant predictive accuracy across all five measures of recidivism. With one exception, these relations did not vary by gender, age, or ethnicity; and again with one exception, no significant evidence was found that types of family or household relationships moderated those empirical relations. In short, the evidence suggested that the DVSI-R was a robust risk assessment instrument, having applicability across different types of perpetrators and different types of family and household relationships. Finally, the empirical findings showed that structured clinical judgment about imminent risk-to-victim and risk-to-others corresponded with the prediction of recidivism by the DVSI-R total numeric risk scores, but the effects of those scores were significantly stronger than the perceived risk-to-victim or the perceived risk-to-others.     

Psychopathy (PCL-R) in a forensic psychiatric sample of homicide offenders: some reliability issues

Several studies have shown that psychopathy is overrepresented among homicide offenders. There is a consensus that Hare's Psychopathy Checklist-Revised PCL-R is currently the most valid and useful tool for rating psychopathy (e.g., [Fulero, S. M. (1995). Review of the Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised. In J. C. Conoley & J. C. Impara (Eds.), Twelfth Mental Measurements Yearbook (pp. 453-454). Lincoln, NE: Buros Institute]). Usually, when making a rating of psychopathy, both an interview and an examination of the subject's files are used. However, it has been discussed what is really required to be able to rate psychopathy in a reliable manner. The aim of the present study was to retrospectively rate the degree of psychopathy in 35 homicide offenders being subjected to forensic psychiatric assessment. These ratings of psychopathy were carried out using forensic psychiatric files and courts'; verdicts only. Another aim was to examine the reliability of PCL-R in this specific Swedish sample of homicide offenders. There was a good agreement between the two raters with respect to the categorical diagnosis of psychopathy (Cohen's kappa=.81, p<.001), which indicates that retrospective ratings of psychopathy are well suited for research purposes. The prevalence of psychopathy among the homicide offenders was 31.4% (using a cut-off score of 30), which means that the construct of psychopathy may contribute to the understanding of the phenomenon of homicide. In the planning of treatment for homicide offenders, a consideration of possible psychopathy is necessary. As criminal psychopaths are known to relapse into violent criminality, it is very important that they are given efficient treatment, placement and management.     

Sexual and nonsexual offenders with intellectual and learning disabilities: a comparison of characteristics, referral patterns, and outcome

This article reports an evaluation of a community intellectual disability offender service over the period from 1990 to 2001. Men who committed sex offenses or sexually abusive incidents (n = 106) and men who committed other types of offenses and serious incidents (n = 78) are compared on personal characteristics, referral sources, forensic details, and outcome up to 7 years after referral. The cohorts are older than one would expect from the criminology literature, and, at about 33%, the incidence of mental illness is consistent with some previous studies. A greater proportion of sex offenders had criminal justice involvement and a formal disposal from court. Fire raising was not overly represented as an offense. There was a higher rate of reoffending in the nonsexual cohort, which persisted up to 7 years. Investigating only reoffenders, there was a considerable amount of harm reduction recorded up to 7 years, statistically significant up to 5 years following initial referral.     

铁路食品安全风险管理体系构建与实施探讨(综述)

目的:利用风险管理与控制的基本原理,采取风险控制措施,确保铁路食品安全。方法:分析铁路食品安全管理中存在的风险因素,利用风险管理相关方面理论加以控制和消除。结果:通过查找铁路食品安全管理中存在的风险,分别在对内、对外、风险控制体系得出风险点位。结论:在新的形势下摸索出一条适应我国法律又符合自身管理要求的铁路食品安全特色模式,从而来确保铁路食品安全管理。     

Risk assessment: Identifying patterns of risk in young offenders with the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory

Effective case management of juvenile offenders requires differential treatment of juveniles that is based on clearly established patterns of need and risk ascertained by valid risk prediction tools. This study was the first attempt to determine whether profiles of offenders would provide valid and useful information beyond simple risk level (high, medium, and low). Using cluster analytic techniques, this study identified five risk profiles using juvenile court intake and probation samples (n = 301 and n = 372, respectively). The two samples were selected to represent youth entering the juvenile justice system and those already under the jurisdiction of the court. The results indicated that statistically dependable profiles could be identified which may provide more detailed information than risk level alone. Further, it appears that risk profile may provide a more useful method of categorizing offenders and their needs.     

A comparison of the neuropsychological profiles of adult male sex offenders and non-offenders with a learning disability

Abstract

The present study compared the neumpsychologlcal pmfiles of a group of adult male sex offenden with a laming disability (n-42) with a group of adult male non-offenders with a learning disability (n-42) using the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale - Revised (1986). The groups wen matched for full-scale IQ. Thc study found that the non-offender group had significantly higher Verbal 1Q scorn than the sex offender group. No significant differences wen found for Performance IQ. The non-ofinder group was also found to have significantly hlgher scores on the Vocabulary sub-test than the sex offender group and the sex offender group was found to have significantly higher scores on the ObJecr Assembly subtest than the non-ofinder group. Finally. the sex offender group was found to have a significantly lower Verbal IQ than Performance IQ. No significant Verbal-Performance discrepancy was found for the non-offender group. Possible implications of these findings are dlscusscd.