Experimental results of fingerprint comparison validity and reliability: A review and critical analysis

Our purpose in this article is to determine whether the results of the published experiments on the accuracy and reliability of fingerprint comparison can be generalized to fingerprint laboratory casework, and/or to document the error rate of the Analysis–Comparison–Evaluation (ACE) method. We review the existing 13 published experiments on fingerprint comparison accuracy and reliability. These studies comprise the entire corpus of experimental research published on the accuracy of fingerprint comparisons since criminal courts first admitted forensic fingerprint evidence about 120 years ago. We start with the two studies by Ulery, Hicklin, Buscaglia and Roberts (2011, 2012), because they are recent, large, designed specifically to provide estimates of the accuracy and reliability of fingerprint comparisons, and to respond to the criticisms cited in the National Academy of Sciences Report (2009).Following the two Ulery et al. studies, we review and evaluate the other eleven experiments, considering problems that are unique to each. We then evaluate the 13 experiments for the problems common to all or most of them, especially with respect to the generalizability of their results to laboratory casework.Overall, we conclude that the experimental designs employed deviated from casework procedures in critical ways that preclude generalization of the results to casework. The experiments asked examiner-subjects to carry out their comparisons using different responses from those employed in casework; the experiments presented the comparisons in formats that differed from casework; the experiments enlisted highly trained examiners as experimental subjects rather than subjects drawn randomly from among all fingerprint examiners; the experiments did not use fingerprint test items known to be comparable in type and especially in difficulty to those encountered in casework; and the experiments did not require examiners to use the ACE method, nor was that method defined, controlled, or tested in these experiments.Until there is significant progress in defining and measuring the difficulty of fingerprint test materials, and until the steps to be followed in the ACE method are defined and measurable, we conclude that new experiments patterned on these existing experiments cannot inform the fingerprint profession or the courts about casework accuracy and errors.     

Construct validity,reliability and predictive validity of the dynamic risk assessment and management system (DRAMS) in offenders with intellectual disability

Background. There have been a number of developments in the assessment of dynamic risk in the criminological literature. The dynamic risk assessment and management system (DRAMS) has been developed to facilitate the measurement of dynamic factors of risk for offenders with intellectual disability. Method. The study was designed to assess the construct validity, reliability and predictive utility of the DRAMS in 23 male forensic patients in a high secure setting. Predictions were made against independently collected incident data. Concurrent validity was assessed against the Ward Anger Rating Scale (WARS). Results. A reformulation of the individual section variables according to convergent and discriminant correlational analysis revealed Cronbach's alpha levels of >.8 for all sections apart from mood (alpha .750) and items retained to facilitate clinical information (alpha ?.017). Two hundred pairs of WARS and DRAMS assessments revealed orderly sectional correlations. The sections of mood, antisocial behaviour, and intolerance/agreeableness predicted incidents with a medium effect size as did total DRAMS score. There were highly significant differences between assessments taken 1 or 2 days prior to an incident and control assessments conducted at least 7 days from an incident. Conclusions. The reformulated DRAMS has good construct and concurrent validity. It appears to be a reliable assessment tool and informs on risk levels relating to stable and acute proximal factors. It appears as an important addition to the utility of risk assessments for this population.     

Economics,crime and the market: the role of household content insurance

The authors thank Paul Fenn and Robert Dingwall for their comments on a previous version of this article. Jon Spencer is Lecturer in Social Work, University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9PL United Kingdom. David Ward is Professor of Social and Community Studies, DeMontfort University, Scraptoft Campus, Leicester, LE7 9SU United Kingdom.     

The relative validity of psychopathy versus risk/needs‐based assessments in the prediction of adolescent offending behaviour

Purpose . The predictive validity of the psychopathy checklist‐youth version (PCL:YV) and Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) for juvenile offenders were compared to examine whether a broad needs–risk tool predicted violence better than a focused individual assessment of psychopathy. Methods . 94 adolescents from residential and secure units were interviewed and assessed using the PCL:YV and YLS/CMI. Total scores were retrospectively applied to staff‐recorded incidents of violence, total number of charges and convictions and formally recorded assaults. The predictive accuracy of each tool was assessed using correlational and receiver operator characteristic analyses. Results . The PCL:YV was a better predictor of staff‐recorded violence than the YLS/CMI; both instruments were similar in their ability to predict total number of charges and convictions and assaults. When subdivided by gender, the correlations for predicting staff recorded violence in male participants were significantly higher than for female participants for both test instruments. Both instruments were broadly equivalent in their association with assaults and charges and convictions by gender. Conclusion . The PCL:YV is a better predictor of recorded violence than the YLS/CMI, but for charges and convictions and assaults, the YLS/CMI and PCL:YV were comparable for UK adolescent offenders. When recalculated to exclude the likelihood of predictor–criterion overlap, the results were the same. These findings are discussed in relation to the value of using risk–needs assessment instruments as compared with scales with a more psychopathological and personality focus.     

Illegal gambling businesses & organized crime: an analysis of federal convictions

Illegal gambling operations have been alleged to support organized crime and victimize participants, rather than benefit them. This is said to occur through cheating in the games provided, defrauding the government of tax revenue, and funding other illicit and criminal activities. What has been missing is a systematic analysis of actual cases involving illegal gambling businesses to determine precisely who is involved, how these businesses operate, the nature of the threat posed, and the law enforcement response to it. The analysis reported here examines all federal convictions involving operation of illegal gambling businesses during a single year. There were more than 80 persons charged and convicted of participation in illegal gambling businesses, centered around 40 distinct enterprises. The results indicate that illegal gambling businesses in the United States are long-term operations consisting of four general types, and that enforcement of existing laws, particularly related to illegal online sports betting, are not working effectively.     

The RECON typology of stalking: reliability and validity based upon a large sample of North American stalkers

A new typology of stalking, RECON (relationship and context-based), is proposed, based upon the prior relationship between the pursuer and the victim, and the context in which the stalking occurs. The static typology yields four groups: Intimate, Acquaintance, Public Figure, and Private Stranger. The typology was tested on a large (N = 1005) nonrandom sample of North American stalkers gathered from prosecutorial agencies, a large police department, an entertainment corporation security department, and the authors' files. Interrater reliability for group assignment was 0.95 (ICC). Discriminant validity (p < 0.01) was demonstrated on a variety of demographic, clinical, pursuit, threat, and violence characteristics among and between groups. Findings confirm and extend the work of other researchers, most notably the very high risk of threats and violence among prior sexually intimate stalkers, the very low risk of threats and violence among public figure (celebrity) stalkers, and the negative relationship between stalking violence and psychosis.     

A comment on experimental results of fingerprint comparison validity and reliability: A review and critical analysis

We respond to the article “Experimental results of fingerprint comparison validity and reliability: A review and critical analysis” by Ralph and Lyn Haber which offers (a) a one-sided criticism of the state of affairs in latent print examination, (b) lack of original data supporting that their suggested approach, and (c) a host of incorrect statements, inaccuracies, or obscure interpretations of the existing data.     

National Judges,Community Judges: Invitation to a Journey through the Looking‐glass—On the Need for Jurisdictions to Rethink the Inter‐systemic Relations beyond the Hierarchical Principle

The historical conflict between the European Court of Justice (ECJ) and the national constitutional courts regarding primacy is a misunderstanding. In going through the looking‐glass, we can understand that, on the contrary, the ECJ and the national constitutional courts adopt comparable solutions in their treatment of legal pluralism, and that they see the negation of pluralism as essential for the survival of their own legal orders. Therefore, these judges must be offered a new theoretical context to help them reconcile their role as supreme guardian with the taking into account of the pluralist context. Finally, practical proposals must be made to give judges the instruments and techniques that are capable of reflecting this plural structure.     

The accuracy of crime statistics: assessing the impact of police data bias on geographic crime analysis

Journal of Experimental Criminology - Police-recorded crimes are used by police forces to document community differences in crime and design spatially targeted strategies. Nevertheless, crimes...     

Victimization surveys and the accuracy and reliability of official crime data in developing countriesPublications received

The accuracy and reliability of official crime data are always suspect because knowledge of crime depends on the independent decision made by each victim of whether or not to report her/his experiences to the police. Victimization surveys allow estimates of degrees of inaccuracy, but such research is rarely done in developing countries. The little research done on victimization and the police in developing countries shows that levels of nonreporting, reasons for nonreporting, and relations between the public and the police to whom one would report are vastly different among developing countries and between developing and developed countries. One cannot assume, therefore, that the impact of victim behavior on the accuracy and reliability of official data will be similar across countries.     

Spatial analysis of crime and region in the united states

The regionality of crime has been presented, debated, and questioned for over a centruy of this Nation’s history, usually involving a segmental approach to crime rates or treating the various crime rates separate from one another. This paper, using states as a real unit of analysis, develops two general crime dimensions using discriminant function analysis. These two dimensions, based upon complete estimation, demonstrate the discriminating power of crime profiles in assessing regionality. Also, region as an independent variable is shown to possess strong explanatory power regarding crime patterns. Although crime viewed at the state and regional level is highly generalized, it does draw attention to spatial and temporal consistencies in the general crime pattern. This level of analysis and this paper allows a greater understanding about the country and integrates available information on crime variations within our society. Finally, implications of this study for the current criminal justice system in the united States are discussed.     

Sexual victimization among African American adolescent females: examination of the reliability and validity of the Sexual Experiences Survey

Adolescent females are disproportionately represented among reported cases of sexual victimization. Because sexual victimization is associated with an array of negative sequelae (e.g., depression, alcohol abuse), psychometrically sound instruments are urgently needed to assess sexual victimization or coercion. The investigation conducts a preliminary analysis of the reliability and validity of the Sexual Experiences Survey (SES) for a sample drawn from a high-risk population-African American adolescent females. Our analyses indicate good internal consistency for the SES with this sample. Convergent validity is demonstrated. Specifically, scores on the SES are associated with significantly lower levels of self-esteem and mastery, higher levels of depression, lower levels of family cohesion, higher levels of family conflict, and higher levels of using alcohol and being a smoker. Preliminary support for discriminant validity is also obtained. This study is a stepping stone for future investigations into the psychometric evaluation of the SES.     

Testing the validity of metacarpal use in sex assessment of human skeletal remains

To assess the potential of employing metacarpals in assessing sex of human skeletal remains, previous investigators have generated regression equations (Scheuer & Elkington, 1995) and linear discriminant functions (Falsetti, 1995; Stojanowski, 1999) based upon measurements from metacarpals. Results have varied in overall accuracy and which metacarpal produces the greatest accuracy. Using a contemporary sample, this study seeks to evaluate the validity of using metacarpals to assign sex by testing methodologies of previous studies. Measurements defined by previous authors were repeated on metacarpals from 23 adult cadavers and data were subjected to regression equations and linear discriminant analysis according to previous methodologies. Accuracy in sex determination from methods of Scheuer & Elkington (1993) and Falsetti (1995) were lower than originally reported while accuracy from methods of Stojanowski (1999) were higher than previously reported. These results suggest that the use of metacarpals in sex determination may be limited and should be applied cautiously.     

Testing the predictive utility of the STATIC‐99: A Bayes analysis

Purpose. This study applies a Bayes analysis to the probability of a particular STATIC‐99 score and its associated re‐offence probability with recidivating for a sexual offence. We examine this probability over three time frames: within 5 years; within 10 years; and within 15 years. Methods. This study was conducted using the same data from Hanson and Thornton (1999) . This dataset is constituted from four different samples: Institut Philippe Pinel (Canada) sample; Millbrook Recidivism Study (Canada) sample; Oak Ridge Division of the Penetanguishene Mental Health Center (Canada) sample; and Her Majesty's Prison Service (UK) sample. The final sample for which sufficient information was available to score the STATIC‐99 includes 1,086 sexual offenders. Bayes statistic has been used to analyse the data. Results. Results are consistent with the STATIC‐99 as a useful assessment tool. The Bayes‐generated probabilities as well as odds ratios show a consistent increase in increased likelihood of re‐offence as the score value increases. Conclusions. The Bayesian analysis of the STATIC‐99 shows that this method is very interesting in the context of risk assessment tools. This approach to risk assessment instruments may be more appropriate in the communication of analytic results as it can offer clinicians a combination of probabilities and likelihood ratios resulting a readily accessible profile of risk.     

Correction to: Intergenerational continuity of crime among children of organized crime offenders in the Netherlands

Crime, Law and Social Change -     

On the relationship of past to future involvement in crime and delinquency: A behavior genetic analysis

Purpose

Criminologists have devoted much attention to identifying the factors that drive stability in antisocial behavior. This body of research has, however, overlooked the contributions of behavior genetic research. This study sought to blend behavior genetics with the different perspectives used by criminologists to explain stability.

Methods

Employing a behavioral genetic research design, the current study analyzed the correlation between adolescent and adulthood crime (a 13 year time span was covered between the two time points) among a sample of sibling pairs drawn from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health).

Results

The findings revealed that genetic factors accounted for nearly all of the stability in offending behavior from adolescence to adulthood. Environmental factors (particularly, of the nonshared variety) accounted for the majority of the changes in offending.

Conclusions

The implications of these results for criminological research and theory are discussed.