意象在美国外交决策中的作用 --以美国军事干预科索沃为例

意象是决策者认知图式中的重要组成部分,也是外交决策者决策过程的一个重要干预性变量。美国更不例外。本文将克林顿政府军事干预科索沃政策作为案例,运用国际政治认知心理学的“意象”概念以及意象与决策者再现问题之间的一般关系模式,分析克林顿政府在制定军事干预科索沃政策过程中,决策者对干预对象所持的意象与他们认识科索沃问题以及最终实施军事干预的相互关系。文章最后结合克林顿政府在后冷战时期面临的对外战略形势,探讨了意象对美国政府制定对外政策的几点影响。     

印度外交政策制定：以印美民用核合作协议谈判为例

随着印度的逐渐崛起,其对外战略和外交政策走向日益受到国际社会的关注和重视。本文选取印度与美国关于民用核合作协议谈判以及批准过程为研究案例,探究当今印度外交政策制定的过程,以加深对印度政治制度的理解,进而对当前中国对印政策制定有所启示。     

规范与国际制度安排:一种建构主义阐释

建构主义相信 ,国际制度像其它社会事物一样 ,也是由行为体在社会实践中建构出来的。因此 ,它在分析国际制度安排时 ,与强调物质力量的理性主义不同 ,注重信念的作用。它认为 ,信念根植于社会实践 ,并在社会实践中得以再塑 ,所以具有主体间性 ,而规范就是体现这种主体间性的信念的具体形式。规范是一个行为集体拥有的关于适当行为的共享期望 ,不但界定行为的合适性和有效性 ,还赋予行为体社会角色和建构社会环境 ,从而形塑行为体的收益 ,促使行为体重设目标和调整行为 ,最终影响国际制度的形成。     

国家互动与认同转换--美国和平崛起的建构主义分析

霸权国与新兴大国之间的权力更替并不必然是霸权战争的转换逻辑 ,从美国独立后的一个多世纪的时间里 ,英美两国经过不懈的磨合努力 ,从霍布斯式互动、洛克式互动一直发展到康德式互动 ,相应地 ,双方的认同则经历了从敌人认同、对手认同到朋友认同的转变。在认同变迁的过程中 ,英美之间实现了权力的和平转换。认同转换是美国实现和平崛起的重要变量     

以内政为轴心的外交——普京时期俄罗斯对中东外交政策评析

普京时期俄罗斯的外交政策由上一时代以意识形态为轴心变为以内政为轴心,且由于国际关系总体体系的变动和可动用外交政策资源的约束,俄罗斯外交政策呈现出平行主义和机会主义的特点。基于这一外交原则,这期间俄罗斯对中东的外交政策形成了5种类型,即改变政权性质型;战略盟友型;外交筹码型;角色不确定型;普通经贸型。这些政策类型对于我们预测较短时期内俄罗斯与中东各国的关系有所帮助。但从长远角度看,未来国际关系的发展必将以某种稳定的新国际关系体系的形成为标志而结束后冷战时代,中东地区在俄罗斯试图主导的国际关系新体系中的地位还充满变数,值得我们适时观察。     

对美国对华政策的一种冷静的思考

美国卡内基国际和平基金会史文研究员的著作《对美国的挑战:在21世纪与一个崛起的中国打交道》( Michael Swaine,America's Challenge.Engaging A Rising China in the Twenty-First Century.Carnegie Endowment,2011),全面、系统地论述了21世纪中美关系,尤其是美国对华政策,通过对中美关系中的重要问题的分析来阐述美国对中国的战略构想和目标.     

中日关系范式的建构主义分析--一项关于日本身份政治的议程研究

令战后,尤其是"9@11"事件以来,由于中日两国经历着政治、社会、经济和实施战略的演变,双边关系不可避免地受到侵蚀.日本身份政治的研究有助于观察日本国家身份和身份定位的变化.建构主义的分析视角为探寻中日关系发展的新模式,以适应70年代国际形势的急剧变化,提供了有益的思考.     

理性主义国际关系理论的困境与建构主义的挑战——以冷战后的北约东扩为例

冷战结束后,北约组织不断向防区外扩展.无论是新现实主义的北约消亡论还是新自由制度主义的制度存在论都没有预测到北约组织的扩张.面对理性主义国际关系理论的困境,建构主义以国际社会化以及安全文化理论为工具来分析北约问题并挑战理性主义国际关系的理论及方法论,从而不断丰富对北约东扩问题的理论分析.     

美国国际组织外交:以国际刑事法院为例

美国国际组织外交是美国对外战略的一个重要方面,美国与国际组织的关系复杂而微妙。作为大多数重要国际组织的主要推动者和缔造者,美国对国际组织的认知却模棱两可,在参与国际组织活动上犹豫不决。文章以国际刑事法院为例对美国国际组织外交进行了具体分析,认为美国与国际组织关系的奇特模式是美国外交思想观念中的固有因素相互影响、相互作用的结果。     

浅析日本与周边国家的海洋领土争端——一种基于建构主义的视角

日本与周边国家之间普遍存在领土争端，其中固然有地缘政治和国家能力等物质力量结构的因素，更是日苓及其周边国家对海洋权益的认知逐步深化等社会意识结构的变迁使然。苓文以建构主义为分析模型，旨在通过读解日本与周边国家领土争端的生成背景、演绎进程、显性特点的同时，探寻消解这一困境的基苯进路。而如何利用预留的政治空间则是以创造性的方式解决问题的关键。     

体系·社会·国家——美国对外经济政策的三种研究路径

研究美国对外经济政策有三种路径,分别是以体系为中心,以社会为中心和以国家为中心的研究路径.以体系为中心的研究路径强调国际政治经济体系的结构性特征对美国对外经济行为的影响和制约;以社会为中心的研究路径则将关注的焦点放在美国国内社会不同的利益集团在游说和组织动员方面的力量对比;而以国家为中心的研究路径认为美国对外经济行为是国家本身的官僚政治运作的结果.三种不同的研究路径为理解美国对外经济政策提供了不同的视角,但它们彼此互不排斥,在分析美国对外经济政策的不同时间段,不同问题领域时,具有各自程度不同的解释力.     

Applied Decision Analysis: Utilizing Poliheuristic Theory to Explain and Predict Foreign Policy and National Security Decisions

In recent years, more than 40 articles and chapters have utilized Poliheuristic Theory to analyze critical decisions made by foreign leaders and U.S. presidents. In this paper, I introduce the Poliheuristic Procedure—a series of steps that one can use to explain or predict decisions by world leaders. Subsequent articles in this Symposium present examples of poliheuristic analyses of decisions made by Presidents Carter, Clinton, Gorbachev, Mussaref and Saddam Hussein. These case studies provide strong support for Poliheuristic Theory: leaders use a two-stage process in making decisions: they first use simple heuristics to eliminate alternatives based on the avoid-major-political-loss principle, and then use more analytic calculations in selecting an alternative from a subset of surviving alternatives.     

美国对华政策中的认同政治:一个案例分析

认同政治是建构主义的核心概念之一,本文选择1949年新中国成立前后美国对华政策作为案例,分析和考察认同政治在这一时期美国对华政策形成过程中的作用,揭示这一政策失败背后美国方面所存在着的认知问题.     

俄罗斯对外政策中的中国和美国

中国和美国是两个对俄罗斯有着特殊重要性的国家 ,它们的特殊性既在于中国和美国自身的特性 ,也在于它们在俄罗斯外交中相互关系所产生的广泛意义。本文主要探讨了中国和美国在俄罗斯外交中的相互关系 ,它们对于俄罗斯的不同利益和它们在俄罗斯外交次序中的地位。     

Foreign Policy Analysis and the Study of the Diplomatic History of the Raoul Wallenberg Case

In 1982, claims were made that the Swedish diplomat, Raoul Wallenberg, when preparing in mid-January 1945 for his trip to Soviet military headquarter in Debrecen, north of Budapest, concealed large amounts of valuables—gold and jewellery—in his car. Moreover, the argument exists that Russian discovery of these valuables had a significant impact on both Swedish and Soviet handling of his case. Recently re-surfacing in a biography of Wallenberg, this claim is incorrect. The testimonies referred to in its support are fraught with serious weaknesses and, the causal chain allegedly set off about finding the valuables is not verifiable. This analysis argues that the study of the diplomatic history of the Wallenberg case could benefit significantly by taking some basic insights from the field of foreign policy analysis into account.     

How to Tame Your Dragon: An Evaluation of India's Foreign Policy Toward China

In the past 60 years, India-China relations have oscillated between friendship, hostility and indifference. In recent times, both countries have started competing for global economic gains and political status. In light of these events, the objective of this article is to analyze various strategies used by China against India, and India's policy response to these strategies. The article evaluates the process of foreign policy decision making in India, and traces the historical evolution of India's foreign policy towards China. It then deconstructs China's foreign policy towards India, and provides the rationale behind its strategies. The article suggests that after initial engagement with India on the question of boundary disputes, Chinese foreign policy has undergone a dramatic shift since 2007. It specifically evaluates the twin Chinese tactics of military incursions and denial of legitimacy to the Indian territories of Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh. Based on an analysis of China's previous boundary disputes resolution record with neighbors, these tactics are identified as an extension of China's new strategy for resolving such disputes. The article concludes by suggesting various policy options available to India to counter China's new strategy on the Sino-Indian border.     

Religion as a Factor in Ethnic Conflict: Kashmir and Indian Foreign Policy

ABSTRACT

Ethnic conflicts with a strong religious component do not have merely domestic or foreign causes and consequences. As a result, internationalization of ethnic conflict has become an important subject of inquiry both in terms of pure research and policy-oriented studies. This article presents a case study of Indian-Pakistani relations over Kashmir, used to evaluate the role of religion and the explanatory power of the approach presented here. The aim of the study is to apply a foreign policy approach that simultaneously incorporates domestic and external factors in an analysis of how and in what ways religious elements of the Kashmir question affect India's foreign policy. The approach, an application of “systemism,” contributes to current developments in the realist school of international relations through its emphasis on the need to look at both international and state levels in combination. Earlier applications of realism, as both neotraditional and structural realism clearly demonstrate, tend to remain restricted to one level or the other. In this approach, a religious dynamic can have a domestic source yet be effectively examined in terms of international ramifications.     

When and How Parliaments Influence Foreign Policy: The Case of Turkey's Iraq Decision

Turkey's decision on its role in the Iraq war in 2003 illustrates the power—and limits—of parliaments as actors in foreign policy. Traditionally, assemblies are not seen as important players in the foreign policies of parliamentary democracies. Instead, cabinets are generally considered the chief policymaking authorities. If the government enjoys a parliamentary majority, legislatures typically support the cabinet, if they are brought into the process at all. The March 1, 2003 vote by the Turkish parliament to not allow the United States to use Turkey as a base for the Iraq invasion challenges this conventional wisdom on parliamentary influence (in addition to many interest-based explanations of foreign policy). This paper examines this decision in the context of the role of parliaments in foreign policies and explores the relationships between parliamentary influence, leadership, intraparty politics, and public opinion.     

Public Opinion and Foreign Policy: Elite Beliefs as a Mediating Variable

Scholars have become increasingly interested in the nature of potential linkage processes between public opinion and foreign policy. The literature on elite beliefs suggests that the beliefs decision makers hold concerning public opinion may have an important influence on this relationship. This article argues that how decision makers perceive and react to public opinion depends upon their views of the proper relationship between public opinion and foreign policy choices. A theoretical framework to analyze beliefs is suggested containing two dimensions: (1) normative beliefs relating to whether it is desirable for input from public opinion to affect foreign policy choices; and (2) practical beliefs regarding whether public support of a policy is necessary for it to be successful. To explore this issue, this article reports the findings of a qualitative content analysis of Dwight D. Eisenhower's and John Foster Dulles's public opinion beliefs. Predictions of behavior are tested in a case study of the September 1954 Chinese offshore islands crisis. The results of this analysis suggest elite beliefs regarding public opinion may provide an important intervening variable worthy of further examination.