Does Mandatory Diversion to Drug Treatment Eliminate Racial Disparities in the Incarceration of Drug Offenders? An Examination of California’s Proposition 36

Objective

This paper addresses previous shortcomings in the literature on racial disparities in incarceration for drug offenders by taking advantage of a change in sentencing policy in California and a rich administrative dataset that is able to create a sample of comparable White and Black offenders.

Method

We use a nonparametric propensity weighting approach to identify similarly situated White and Black male offenders charged with drug-related offenses. We combine this approach with a difference-in-differences model to estimate the effect that a change in California sentencing law for convicted non-violent drug offenders had on racial disparities in prison and drug treatment dispositions.

Results

We find substantial reductions in the probability of a prison sentence after the policy change, but not differentially for Blacks. Blacks remain more likely to go to prison than similarly situated Whites after the policy, although the policy does lead to more referrals to treatment for Blacks.

Conclusions

This paper shows that even after comparing Blacks and Whites in similarly situated contexts that racial disparities in prison commitments remain after sentencing law changes that mandate diversion to drug treatment. The results suggests that addressing racial gaps in the commitments to state prisons will likely require more than shifting the eligibility of drug convictions for prison, as accumulated criminal histories are the primary driver of prison sentences. This means that expanding diversion options from prison alone will not reduce the racial gap in commitments to prison for drug offenses more than incrementally.

     

Norwegian Climate Policy: From Pusher to Laggard?

Initially Norwegian climate policy was very ambitious and Norway stood forth as a pusher on the international scene. Over time Norwegian policy has become more sober, stressing the need for differentiated commitments and flexible implementation. In contrast to the initial enthusiastic phase, climate change policy has been increasingly seen in pragmatic economic terms. Still, Norway is no laggard, as it has shown more willingness to pay for abatement measures than many other countries.     

Climate change and the credibility of international commitments: What is necessary for the U.S. to deliver on such commitments?

The engagement of the United States is critical to the success of any international effort against global climate change. Although international climate efforts require long-lasting, credible commitments by participating countries, risk of failure to deliver on such commitments rises with the degree of gap that the domestic institutions permit between the executive and the legislature. The U.S. withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol indicated that the Clinton administration’s effort to bring international solutions into the domestic arena before domestic consensus was obtained was counterproductive. The congressional politics over budgetary allocation regarding the Bush administration’s technology policies showed that general preference to a technology-oriented approach to climate change alone did not ensure the credibility of international commitments. These cases revealed that the U.S. climate diplomacy was lacking in domestic institutional mechanisms that bring the executive branch’s deal at international negotiations, and the legislators’ preferences at home, closer together. For the U.S. to take leadership in international climate cooperation, domestic institutional frameworks which reconcile the interests of the two branches are necessary. This paper suggests that such domestic institutional frameworks feature two components: regular channels of communication between the two political branches; and, incentive mechanisms for the two branches to swiftly come to terms with each other.

The Group of 77 in the international climate negotiations: recent developments and future directions

First, we describe and analyze the main set of G77 positions in the climate negotiations and the dynamics behind the emergence of these positions. While it is puzzling that the G77 has managed to maintain itself as a group in spite of internal differences along variables as prosperity, emissions and vulnerability to climate change, we claim that a core element behind this cohesion is that these countries share domestic governance problems as much as poverty and economic underdevelopment. Second, we discuss how recent trends of economic and political development in the third world influence the climate policy strategies of the G77 group in the future. The main factor here is the economicand social progress in states like China, India and Brazil, which separates them from the poorer and less powerful G77 states. Increasing heterogeneity along variables like governance, growth, and importance for the international economy is creating an increasing drive among the most successful G77 states towards bilateral agreements with industrialised powers. We do not foresee a departure from traditional G77 positions and membership by these states in the official climate negotiations or a departure from the Kyoto process, but an increasing reliance on bilateral agreements with industrialized countries that link considerations for energy security and the environment. The ability to gain these advantages without commitments may make these states less interested in adopting commitments for the post-Kyoto period. This is unfortunate for the LDCs and the AOSIS groups within the G77, who probably are most vulnerable to climate change.

Do Standards of Proof Affect Decision Making in Child Protection Investigations?

Every state investigates child maltreatment reports. Some states use a lower standard of proof of some credible evidence (or similar terms) to substantiate cases after investigation. Other state legislatures prescribe a higher standard of preponderance of the evidence. Legislatures use these terms of art as a matter of policy to control the risk of false-positive errors. A lower rate of substantiation should follow from a higher standard of proof. There was no statistically significant difference in the percent of substantiated and the percent of unsubstantiated cases in the two groups of states. If state policy to reduce the false-positive error rate is to be effective, something more is required than simply manipulating the verbal formula in legislation.     

The Role of Site Variance in the American Judicature Society Field Study Comparing Simultaneous and Sequential Lineups

Objectives

Police departments often use photo lineups for eyewitness identification purposes. A widely adopted lineup reform designed to reduce eyewitness misidentifications involves switching from the standard simultaneous photo presentation format to a sequential format. These two lineup procedures were recently tested in the American Judicature Society (AJS) field study, which was conducted in four different police jurisdictions. The results from two phases of that investigation reached opposite conclusions as to which lineup procedure is superior, and the purpose of our current investigation was to elucidate the role of site variance in shaping those contrasting conclusions.

Methods

In previous analyses, the field study data were either (1) aggregated across all four study sites or (2) drawn from only one study site (Austin, Texas). Here, we analyze the data separately for the Austin study site, where 69 % of the eyewitnesses were tested, and the other three study sites combined, where 31 % of the eyewitnesses were tested.

Results

The results indicate significant site variance between the Austin and non-Austin study sites. In addition, the results suggest that aggregating the data across sites played a determinative role in creating the apparent disagreement about which lineup procedure is diagnostically superior.

Conclusions

Once large differences across the AJS study sites are taken into consideration, there is no longer any disagreement about which lineup procedure is superior. The simultaneous procedure is diagnostically superior to the sequential procedure, but the sequential procedure sometimes induces more conservative responding (a result that can and often does masquerade as diagnostic superiority).

     

Effectiveness of school-based programs to reduce bullying: a commentary

Objectives

Recent decades have seen a focus on intervention programs to reduce school bullying, in light of the severe negative consequences of such behavior. A recent meta-analysis by Ttofi and Farrington (Journal of Experimental Criminology 7: 27?C56, 2011) provided encouraging findings in terms of some significant reductions in bullying and victimization achieved by many programs. They also report analyses of effect sizes associated with specific program elements and design features of the interventions. While this is an important step forward, we critique some of the strong policy implications which they draw from these latter analyses.

Methods

We discuss four important areas to substantiate this critique: analytical procedure, definitional issues, historical issues, and recent empirical data. As context, we use two particular program elements described by Ttofi and Farrington, namely use of disciplinary measures and work with peers, and one design feature, namely age of pupils.

Results

The findings for the program elements and design feature examined are complex and do not justify strong policy implications at this stage.

Conclusions

We conclude with suggestions for future research directions.     

Neighborhoods,Individuals, and Instrumental Crime in Russia and Ukraine: A Multilevel Test of Merton’s Anomie Theory

Objectives

Empirically assess Baumer’s (Theor Criminol 11(1):63–93, 2007) efforts to unify Merton’s anomie/strain theory within a multilevel framework that anticipates instrumental crime among individuals who are both strongly committed to monetary success goals and weakly committed to the normative means for pursuing these goals, particularly if they possess certain other personal attributes or are embedded within anomic socio-cultural contexts.

Methods

Multilevel overdispersed Poisson regression models are estimated using survey data from 1431 adult residents of 41 neighborhoods in Lviv, Ukraine, and Nizhni Novgorod, Russia.

Results

Consistent with expectations, financial dissatisfaction among individuals appears to exacerbate the effect of the goals-means interaction on instrumental crime. However, no evidence was observed of moderation involving perceived risk of punishment, commitment to non-monetary success goals, and blocked legitimate opportunities. Although neighborhood anomie exerted a statistically significant main effect on instrumental crime, theorized cross-level interactions involving strong cultural emphasis on monetary success goals, weak cultural emphasis on normative means, and limited consensus regarding the normative means by which to pursue monetary success goals did not materialize.

Conclusions

Findings cast doubt on the cross-cultural generality of Baumer’s multilevel conceptualization of Merton’s strain/anomie theory. However, they confirm financial dissatisfaction as a key predictor of instrumental crime and moderator of unbalanced value commitments among individuals. They also suggest that future efforts to bridge the micro and macro strands of Merton’s theory will need to incorporate alternate theoretical predictors (e.g., personal morality) and consider ways in which an anomic social order contributes to deviant behavior directly rather than merely indirectly through the proportion of the population experiencing a goals-means disjuncture.

     

Nobody gives a #%&!: a factorial survey examining the effect of criminological evidence on opposition to sex offender residence restrictions

Objectives

This short report tests whether altering messages concerning the presentation (i.e., criminal justice actor experience vs. summary of scientific findings) or nature of criminological research findings (i.e., lack of crime control effect vs. collateral consequences) regarding the (in)efficacy of sex offender residence restrictions (SORR) would subsequently affect public support for this policy.

Methods

The experimental conditions were presented in a factorial survey delivered to a national online panel, which was subsequently matched to a sampling frame representative of US adults on the basis of gender, age, race, education, ideology, and political interest (N?=?970). Analysis of variance was used to estimate the impact of the experimental manipulations on SORR opposition.

Results

Support for SORR was high across all experimental conditions, and no manipulations were statistically associated with variation in opposition to the policy.

Conclusions

The results support limited previous research suggesting that the public would continue to support SORR even in the lack of evidence to its effectiveness. This research suggests that altering the presenter or nature of research evidence subsequently produces no opinion change, at least in the form that was executed here. Further research on the mechanisms underlying the recalcitrance of SORR support is necessary.

     

Lighting and Homicides: Evaluating the Effect of an Electrification Policy in Rural Brazil on Violent Crime Reduction

Introduction

This study estimates the effects of lighting on homicides in rural areas of developing countries.

Methods

We use an IV strategy by exploring the LUZ PARA TODOS or Light for All (LPT) program that was adopted by the federal government to expand electrification to rural areas in Brazilian municipalities in the 2000s as an exogenous source of variations in access to electricity.

Results

Our results indicate a significant decrease in homicide rates in municipalities the Northeast region, which is the poorest region of the country and most affected by the policy expansion. We estimate that helping a municipality increase from zero electricity coverage to full coverage reduces homicide rates by 92 per 100,000 inhabitants. This is equivalent to moving a municipality that is at the 99th percentile to the median (zero) of the crime distribution across municipalities. In addition, we perform placebo exercises using sub-samples of predominantly urban municipalities. The results increase our confidence in the IV strategy since our primary results were from areas with a larger percentage of rural population, as should be expected by the policy.

Conclusions

This study contributes to the extant literature by investigating the effects of lighting on homicides in a different context, rural areas of a developing country (Brazil).

     

Assessing the performance of public enterprises: A public-choice approach

Recent advances in the theory of public enterprises have led to the development of criteria for assessing their performance. The underlying idea is to determine the best practice of a particular enterprise and assess other public enterprises in the same industry against that best practice. This article is critical of the best-practice-approach and offers an alternative public-choice-based procedure.The objectives assigned to the operation of public enterprises in the best-practice approach do not reflect the specific functions of public enterprises. On the contrary, they are general economic policy objectives derived from a general theory of economic policy based on normative welfare economics. The efficiency of public enterprises is then considered a policy objective. In terms of a public-choice perspective, however, efficiency is almost never in itself a policy objective of a public enterprise. It is unlikely (but not impossible) that we may find a public enterprise with essentially the same production function as an efficiently operated private enterprise. By their very nature, public enterprises are diverse and suited for the most diverse policy objectives. Therefore, performance indicators of a general kind (based on welfare economics) do not reflect the purpose of running a particular public enterprise. The best-practice approach is based on the attribution of policy objectives. A more satisfying analytical approach derives the policy objectives of a particular enterpise by means of a public-choice analysis of its observable behavior. This positive and empirical analysis can then yield those policy objectives against which the performance of the public institution can be assessed.The article has three main sections. The first offers a critical discussion of the existing literature on performance measurements, in particular the best-practice approach. The second suggests an alternative public choice theory of public enterprise behavior, and the third develops a stepwise procedure for assessing the performance of public enterprises in a public-choice analytical framework.     

‘Alien family’: The impact of the Aliens Act 1935 and subsequent Orders on the family in Ireland, 1933–1945

This article examines the consequences of Irish ‘aliens’ policy on families fleeing Nazi Germany using case studies of Irish German-speaking families and German-speaking families to ascertain the difficulties they faced. Analysis of the applications process undergone by families in order to secure a safe-haven from the reaches of the Third Reich reveals the main concerns of the Irish establishment and how these matters affected the potential safety of some individuals above others because of how they were officially categorised. Juxtaposing those who were considered an asset to Irish society against those who were not granted refuge this study traces the process both endured. While this article outlines the Irish government policy on refugees it focuses more particularly on how civil servants and government agencies implemented such policies and the subsequent impact on refugee family units affected by the Nazi regime.1 1?My doctoral research forms part of the German-speaking exiles in Ireland Project an initiative led by Dr Gisela Holfter in the Centre for Irish-German Studies at the University of Limerick. The overall project is attempting to fill a previous void in international exile studies, from an Irish perspective see Holfter, Gisela (Ed.). (2006 Holfter, Gisela, ed. 2006. German-speaking Exiles in Ireland 1933-1945, Amsterdam: Rodopi. New York [Google Scholar]). German-speaking Exiles in Ireland 1933-1945 Amsterdam/New York: Rodopi. This article attempts to reconcile internal policy, international relations and the effect these had on the lives of ordinary people both German-speaking and Irish. It will conclude by recognising the importance to the Irish authorities of the former two elements while acknowledging that despite them there were some successes for refugees although they were of least consequence in the priorities of the day.     

Racial Disproportionality in U.S. State Prisons: Accounting for the Effects of Racial and Ethnic Differences in Criminal Involvement,Arrests, Sentencing,and Time Served

Objectives

An important indicator of discrimination in the criminal justice system is the degree to which race differences in arrest account for racial disproportionality in prisons (“accountability”). A recent National Academy of Sciences (NAS) study raised concerns by reporting low and declining estimates of accountability. Our improved measure accounts for unreported Hispanic arrestees. We measure accountability at intermediate stages, including commitments to prison and time served. We also use victim reports to extend accountability from arrest to differential involvement in violent crimes.

Methods

Our methods utilize information on self-reported racial identity of Hispanic prisoners to provide more accurate comparison with the race of arrestees. We also assess accountability for 42 individual states and 4 regions.

Results

Our national estimate of accountability is close to previous estimates and much higher than those in the NAS report. Accountability is high for the serious violent crimes of murder and rape, and low for drug trafficking, drug possession, weapons, and aggravated assault, which involve more discretion in arrest, labeling and charging.

Conclusions

Our more accurate accountability results contradict the NAS report of low and declining accountability. Regional accountability estimates show no consistently stronger or weaker region. We also show a corrected national estimate of the ratio of black-to-white incarceration-rates has dropped from 6.8 in 1990 to 4.7 in 2011, an important correction to concerns of increasing discrimination. Reports of offenders’ race by victims and arrestees’ race are found to be close, supporting use of arrest as an indicator of involvement in violent crimes.

     

Citizen's psychological knowledge,legal knowledge,and attitudes toward participation in the new Japanese legal system,saiban-in seido

A new procedure, saiban-in seido, was introduced in the Japanese criminal court in 2009.1 1. This article was written before the Saiban-in seido started. A mixed tribunal of three professional judges and six lay people selected from a list of voters deliberate the verdict in serious criminal cases such as murder, rape, and arson. This study researched lay people's attitudes toward the new system, their psychological knowledge (e.g. the reliability of eyewitness testimony) and legal knowledge (e.g. ‘presumed innocent’), and the relationship between attitude and knowledge. Study 1 examined the responses of 294 citizens to a questionnaire; 90 responses were examined in Study 2 (both samples consisted of two age groups, i.e. (1) 20s and (2) 40s and 50s, and two education levels, i.e. (1) college or below and (2) university or more. In both studies, respondents showed concerns about their lack of ability and knowledge to become a lay judge. Although legal knowledge was related to attitude – i.e. the more legal knowledge, the less negativity – no relationship was found between psychological knowledge and attitude. Relevant support for citizens to become lay judges was discussed.     

Philosophical Criminology and Complex Systems Science: Towards a Critical Theory of Justice

Chaos theory (or complex systems science, CSS) has made considerable inroads across a range of social science disciplines, including criminology. However, little has been done to assess the relevance of chaos theory for advancing a philosophical criminology. This task is significant because it tells us something about where, how, and why most modernist theories of crime are of limited utility when advancing the interests of justice and humanism in society. Accordingly, this article outlines the essential features of a philosophical criminology, including its commitments to ontology, epistemology, aesthetics, and ethics. Moreover, the contexts in which several key chaos theory principles such as iteration, sensitive dependence on initial conditions, bifurcations, attractors, fractal space, and dissipative structures function to promote a philosophical criminology are explored. A number of implications stemming from this analysis for purposes of critical theory building in law, crime, and justice studies are provisionally delineated.

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Does illegality breed violence? Drug trafficking and state-sponsored protection rackets

Illegality does not necessarily breed violence. The relationship between illicit markets and violence depends on institutions of protection. When state-sponsored protection rackets form, illicit markets can be peaceful. Conversely, the breakdown of state-sponsored protection rackets, which may result from well-meaning policy reforms intended to improve law enforcement, can lead to violence. The cases of drug trafficking in contemporary Mexico and Burma show how a focus on the emergence and breakdown of state-sponsored protection rackets helps explain variation in levels of violence both within and across illicit markets.

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Rational lobbying and EU climate policy

Using a simple rational choice model as a heuristic device, this paper explores the lobbying behaviour of environmental and business organisations in the field of climate policy and discusses why their lobbying behaviour differs. I find that environmental organisations lobby less than what would be considered rational according to the simple rational choice model, and argue that this might largely be explained by tight budget constraints. I also find that business organisations lobby more than what would be considered rational according to the model, and argue that this might be explained if one applies a long-term perspective on rational lobbying in the policy field rather than a short-term perspective on single policy decisions. Moreover, I find that the type of lobbying differs. While environmental organisations focus on single policy decisions, business organisations also invest in general lobbying. The analysis is based on interviews with interest organisations lobbying in the field of climate policy at the European Union (EU) level.

Attempts at drug control in Colombia,Peru and Bolivia

The paper analyzes as part of a broader study the drug-control policy of the cocacocaine producing countries of Colombia, Perú and Bolivia, beginning with a short introduction of the political framework. The legal and political emphasis of this policy lies in the area of control and repression, which therefore is analysed in more detail. One can recognize a (substantial) tendency towards overcriminalisation linked to easier (procedural) possibilities of criminal prosecution and punishment (II). However, this questionable policy, when examined from a civil rights standpoint, proves to be of limited efficacy: given the continuing flow of cocaine to the US and the expanding trade to Europe, the policy can hardly pass a qualitative test considering the quantitative evidence (III). There are basically two alternatives from the viewpoint of the producing countries: the international commercialisation of coca and alternative development; from the viewpoint of the consumer countries the controlled legalisation (IV).This article is based on criminological research about the drug policies of Colombia, Peru and Bolivia, which was accepted at the end of 1992 as a doctoral thesis by the Law Faculty of the University of Munich. It attempts to summarize the substantial results of this research but is compelled, due to its limited scope, to frequently refer to previous publications (Ambos, 1993, 1994).This article was published in an earlier German version in Monatsschrift für Kriminologie und Strafrechtsreform, vol. 76, No. 4/1993, pp. 206–226, in a Spanish version in: Cuadernos de Política Criminal (Madrid) No. 53 (1994) pp. 629–667 and Revista dela Facultad de Ciencias Jurídicas y Politicas, No. 98 (1996), Universidad Central de Venezuela, Caracas, pp. 343–390. — I am indebted to Prof. Daniel Nesereko, University of Botswana for refining the English version and critial comments.     

Orchestra of Treaties: A Future Climate Regime Scenario with Multiple Treaties among Like-minded Countries

The Orchestra of Treaties scenario emerges if countries share the following principles for re-building the climate regime (1) recognize the sovereignty concerns attending energy policies; (2) build upon national interests in technology and development; (3) avoid conflicts and enhance cooperation by appropriately framing core issues; and (4) address not only short-term emission cuts but also long-term technological change.In this scenario, countries will share these principles by drawing on the hard lessons of past UNFCCC negotiations. The framing of the climate change problem as the allocation of emission quota created an adversarial style of negotiation that resulted in distrust among countries. Moreover, the negotiations have been characterized by unpredictable outcomes. Since energy policies were deemed as sovereignty concerns, countries did not want to put such issues on the agenda to avoid a potentially intrusive outcome. This negotiation style brought about shortcomings of the Kyoto Protocol and may lead to a stalemate in future negotiations.The scenario captures the dynamics that emerge when multiple efforts are pursued by flexible coordination of actors motivated through diverse incentives. The emerging regime, the Orchestra of Treaties, will consist of four building blocks, of which three grow outside of UNFCCC.

A Tale of Two Margins: Exploring the Probabilistic Processes that Generate Prison Visits in the First Two Years of Incarceration

Objective

The study extends previous literature (Cochran in J Crim Justice 40:433–440, 2012, J Res Crime Delinq 51(2):200–229, 2014) by simultaneously examining two margins: the probability of receiving a visit and the number of visits a prisoner receives conditional on receiving any visits; adding a level of nuance to the exploration of prison visits.

Methods

A random sample of New York State prisoners admitted between 2000 and 2013 who served at least 24 months and had basic admission, release, and transfer data (N = 22,975) were selected. Visit patterns were derived using group-based trajectory models with a zero-inflated Poisson specification and up to a cubic polynomial on probability and count parameters.

Results

The best fitting model had seven groups that displayed wide variation in the probability of a visit (in both directions). By contrast, the number of visits, conditional on receiving a visit, is relatively constant over time. Subsequent dual trajectory modeling of prison visits with distance from home county demonstrates that the dynamic patterns of probability of visit correspond with dynamic patterns of distance from home county.

Conclusion

We demonstrate that time variation in visitation occurs along the prevalence margin. Researchers interested in studying the longitudinal relationship between visits and outcomes should be attentive to this result. Additionally, characteristics of prisoners assigned to the trajectory groups using Posterior Probabilities of Assignment suggest that pre-prison factors (i.e. criminal record) and in-prison policy decisions (i.e. custody level) are associated with particular patterns of visits over time; highlighting the challenge to understanding the effect of visitation in studies without explicit causal identification strategies.