Chinese and Japanese development co-operation: South–South,North–South,or what?

This article compares the evolution and characteristics of Chinese and Japanese aid, assessing the impact of their aid policies in sub-Saharan Africa from the 1950s to the present. It argues that China and Japan's aid programmes share more similarities than dissimilarities. Both pursue aid strategies that spread allocations across a region rather than concentrating upon specific countries. The article seeks to clarify the following questions. In what way are Chinese and Japanese aid strategies different from each other and Western donors? Should their aid be seen as a form of South–South co-operation that provides an alternative to the West's hegemony in Africa? Or is aid from these donors simply another strategy to control African resources and state elites in the guise of a partnership of equals?     

Kurdish women in the Kurdish–Turkish conflict – perceptions,experiences, and strategies

This study analyzes how Kurdish women experience the violence and other consequences of the armed conflict raging between the PKK and the Turkish state. Interviews conducted in Istanbul, Ankara, and Diyarbakir suggest that Kurdish women experience the conflict both as members of an oppressed minority and as women. The study first focuses on identifying sources of conflict related stress that are specific to women, such as the need to be silent to protect their families, and then analyzes the strategies that Kurdish women use to deal with this stress as women, including networking and education.     

Excavations at UR, 1929–30

Asia and the Road Ahead: Issues for the Major Powers. By Robert A. Scalapino. University of California Press, 1976. Pp. x +337. Map. Index. £7.10.

A Peace Denied: the United States, Vietnam, and the Paris Agreement. By Gareth Porter. Indiana University Press, 1975. $15.     

Forecasting US–China Relations, 2015

Abstract

Rejecting the certainty of prediction in favor of a probabilistic approach to forecasting, this paper develops an eight-step forecasting methodology, addressing 1) structural drivers, 2) predetermined elements, 3) critical uncertainties, 4) chance, 5) scenarios, 6) probabilities, 7) signposts, and 8) policy implications, and applies it to the medium-term future of US–China relations. Specifically, it forecasts a 45 percent chance that US–China relations in 2015 will be best characterized overall by a rivals scenario, followed by a 35 percent chance that the US and China will be partners. The chances that the US and China will be allies or enemies are significantly more remote, but real, at 5 percent and 15 percent respectively.     

Sovereignty–Security Nexus,Domestic Constraints,and the Taiwan Independence Policy (1988–2010)

Abstract

This article explains the rise and fall of the so-called Taiwan independence policy during the period of 1988–2010. It defines the Taiwan independence policy as an internal political move by the Taiwanese government to establish Taiwan as a separate and sovereign political entity on the world stage. It reviews two existing prevailing theses – electoral politics and shifting identity – and points out their weaknesses, the former's being its indeterminacy and unfalsifiability, and the latter's being its inadequacy to explain policy change. A new explanation focusing on relative power shift (military balance, alliance strength, and diplomatic standing) and domestic constraints (resource and political constraints) is then proposed to explain the rise and fall of the Taiwan independence policy. A brief examination of the 1988–2010 cross-strait history lends strong support to the theory.     

Turkish–American Relations and the Cuban Missile Crisis, 1957–63

This article first examines Turkish foreign policy shortly prior to and following the nation's military coup in 1960 in the context of its relations with the superpowers of the time, particularly with the USA, and in the face of the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962. It then discusses the Menderes administration's search for a multilateral foreign policy and the American response. Focusing on the question of why Turkey was so eager to receive the Jupiter missiles, even though it was already known shortly prior to installation that these missiles constituted a surplus, the article examines the factors shaping Turkey's approach to the missile crisis.     

Showing Character: Nehru,Reputation, and the Sino-Indian Dispute, 1957–1962

Abstract

In the approach to the Sino-Indian war of 1962, the Indian government made some surprising policy choices. Most significant was Nehru’s decision to contest what was viewed by him and his officials as unimportant territory in the western sector, rejecting in the process Chou en-Lai’s 1960 “package” offer. Instead, Delhi chose to initiate in 1961 the Forward Policy, in full awareness of the severely disadvantageous position of the Indian military in the disputed border areas. Using Indian primary documents, this article makes the case that reputational considerations—particularly Nehru’s fear that any concessions to China would be viewed as weakness and provoke further aggression—help explain the puzzling aspects of India’s intransigence on the Sino-Indian territorial dispute during this period.     

Ambitious Goals,Deficient Output: Tax and Fiscal Policies of the Conservative–Liberal Government, 2009–13

Tax policy was at the heart of the Merkel II government's reform agenda. The CDU/CSU and FDP promised significant tax cuts and simplifications of the tax system. During their term, however, they remained the least active of all German governments of the last four decades. Why? This article argues that a combination of factors relating to the dynamics of electoral competition and structural problem pressure can explain this outcome: The new constitutional debt brake and the Euro Crisis foreclosed the traditional ‘solution’ of glossing over the conflict within the coalition between its economically liberal constituency (FDP and parts of CDU/CSU) and pro-welfare state constituency (other parts of CDU/CSU) by combining tax reductions with continued high spending. The result was a devastating loss for the FDP in the 2013 elections, and a victory for the CDU/CSU which profited from positioning itself as a moderate and stabilising political force in uncertain times of crisis.     

Dynamics of regime personalization and patron–client networks in Russia, 1999–2014

Many comparative scholars classify personalist regimes as a distinct category of nondemocratic rule. To measure the process of regime personalization, and to distinguish such a process from overall authoritarian reversal, is difficult in comparative context. Using the Russian political regime in 1999–2014 as a case study, we examine the dynamics of regime personalization over time. Relying on original data on patron–client networks and expert surveys assessing the policy influence of the key members of the ruling coalition, we argue that having more clients, or clients who are more powerful, increases the power of patrons – and that where the patron is the ruler, the resulting measure is an indication of the level of personalization of the regime. We trace regime personalization from the changes in political influence of the president's associates in his patron–client network versus that of other elite patron–client networks. We find that as early as 2004, the Russian regime can be regarded as personalist, and is strongly so from 2006 onward.     

Crown and Cortes in Castile, 1590–1665

Summary

Preparations for the Estates General of 1789 constituted one of the last acts of the anclen régime in France. The accompanying elections have received relatively little attention, yet they bequeathed much more to the electoral practices and political mentalités of the Revolution than most historians have realised. Though separate orders were preserved at the final meeting of the Estates General, with disastrous consequences for the monarchy, custom was breached by the uniform fashion and broad franchise with which deputies were elected. When the National Assembly was created the orders were dissolved, but much of this semi‐traditional electoral system survived. Assemblies of voters, an indirect, two‐tier process of election and exhaustive balloting were all retained from the past. A pronounced aversion to declared candidatures and electoral canvassing remained equally entrenched. Moreover, radicals drew upon the old‐régime heritage, rather than upon Rousseau, in their use of mandates, oral voting and the pursuit of unanimity at the polls. The revolutionary experiment with elections ultimately faltered in face of apathy and cynicism among voters. This article concludes by suggesting how the electoral legacy of the anden regime inhibited the emergence of a ‘modern political culture’, which is currently hailed as the major achievement of the French Revolution.     

Macroeconomic Policies and Agricultural Terms of Trade,Bangladesh, 1952–2005

Agricultural prices in Bangladesh have had a tendency to rise at a faster rate than industrial prices since the early 1950s. The resulting rising trend in the agricultural terms of trade has been pronounced since the mid-1980s when Bangladesh introduced IMF- and World Bank-supported deregulatory economic reforms. This rising trend in the agricultural terms of trade is inconsistent with the Prebisch-Singer thesis in the context of domestic economy, which suggests a secular deterioration in the terms of trade for primary products vis-à-vis manufactured products. It is, however, consistent with the view of classical economists who saw the possibility of an upward trend in the terms of trade for agricultural products (food) because of diminishing returns in agriculture. In fact, the classical idea of the rising terms of trade for primary products makes sense in a land-constrained growing economy with increasing population, such as Bangladesh, which remained semi-closed until the mid-1980s. This article reviews macroeconomic policies in Bangladesh since the 1950s, examines the time-series properties of agricultural prices, industrial prices and the agricultural terms of trade and draws inference on the issue whether the agricultural sector was squeezed systematically by turning the terms of trade against agriculture for industrialisation of the country.     

The feminist movement in Taiwan, 1972–87

Abstract

The definition of the women's movement has caused a certain degree of confusion in the women's studies community in Taiwan. Before 1986 it was debated whether there was or had ever been a women's movement at all on the island, for gender equality had been guaranteed by the 1947 Constitution, and hence some people questioned the desirability and potential impact of such a movement. Afterwards, as social movements collected momentum and popular support, the tendency has been to define the women's movement broadly to include all types of women's group activities.     

Petitioning in early seventeenth-century Scotland, 1625–51

ABSTRACT

In contrast to recent work on England and other parts of Europe, research on petitioning in early modern Scotland is still in its early stages, notably in respect of its political significance in a comparative context. This article investigates supplicatory activity in Scotland during a crucial period in which the petition came under intense scrutiny. The 1630s saw a determined attempt by King Charles I’s Scottish government to clamp down on the use of supplications to express criticism of royal policy; assertive, but carefully controlled, petitioning was one part of a resistance strategy that resulted in the downfall of the king’s regime. When a new government came to power in 1638 headed by the Covenanters, petitioning activity came to be seen as a potential challenge to their authority. Petitioning does not appear to have invoked ‘opinion’ in 1640s Scotland as has been claimed for England; the printed petition remained a rarity in Scotland. Nevertheless constitutional reform, combined with the wartime conditions of the 1640s, generated more recourse to petitioning, and the government recognized opportunities to enhance its claims to legitimate rule. A preliminary investigation of everyday petitions to the government during the 1640s shows how the narratives constructed by supplicants often sought to endorse its values and ideals, but that this type of petitioning was also used by supplicants to critique the government’s policies and hold it to its own rhetoric.     

A tribute to Leo Cawley, 1944–1991

Abstract

In the late sixties, after his tour of active duty as a marine in Vietnam from 1965 to 66, Leo Cawley returned to the United States and became an economics major at Columbia University. There he joined the Vietnam Veterans Against the War and the Columbia University chapter of the Committee of Concerned Asian Scholars (CCAS), whose national organization founded the Bulletin of Concerned Asian Scholars. In March and April of 1972 he traveled to the People's Republic of China with the second CCAS delegation. Leo reviewed Waldemar A. Nielson's The Big Foundations in volume 6, number 3 of BCAS in 1974, and from 1985 to 1987 he was book review editor for BCAS. Leo also contributed money to BCAS even in the last year of his life when his medical expenses were skyrocketing. Above all, however, Leo stood for everything BCAS has stood for over the years, and he was a close friend and inspiration to some of BCAS's staunchest supporters.