Coming to terms with neopatrimonialism: Soviet and American nation-building projects in Afghanistan

The author examines how patrimonial forms of domination, as conceived in a Weberian sense, came to pervade the formal bureaucratic apparatuses developed under both Soviet Marxist–Leninist (from the late 1970s) and American-coalition liberal designs (since 2001), creating hybrid states defined by neopatrimonialism. Drawing lessons from the survival and eventual collapse of the Najibullah regime following the 1989 withdrawal of Soviet forces, the article finds that the continued extension of aid and arms, and not the presence of foreign military forces, proved most effectual in sustaining the Afghan leader's patronage-based grip on power. Arguing that the contemporary regime of Hamid Karzai has likewise adopted a neopatrimonial-type rule, these findings have clear implications for current American policy in Afghanistan. America, Afghanistan's ultimate patron, can better ensure stability in the region by extending aid to Karzai than by continuing a large and costly military occupation of the region.     

1958年苏联从罗马尼亚撤军始末

1944年苏军进入罗马尼亚后,对其战后初期的政治、经济和社会都产生了很大的负面影响。1955年罗马尼亚首次要求苏联撤军,结果遭到赫鲁晓夫的强硬拒绝。经过不懈努力,1958年苏联终于同意罗方要求。苏联之所以同意撤军,主要是出于和平攻势的需要,也考虑到罗马尼亚处在一个不容易受西方国家攻击的地理位置,同时也是对罗马尼亚忠诚的奖赏。苏军的撤出为罗马尼亚以后独立自主政策的实施大开了方便之门。     

苏联末期的货币战——透视苏联解体的新视角

苏联末期,在卢布贬值的未来预期下,各加盟共和国展开激烈的银行信贷竞争,同时实行了限制卢布涌入、物资流出的经济封锁。进而,面对俄联邦汹涌而至的卢布潮水,发行主权货币成为小国寡民型共和国防止卢布占领、摆脱自身经济困境的良策。而某个加盟共和国的主权货币行动必然在整个苏联内部引发多米诺骨牌效应。统一的卢布流通域遭遇被15个彼此独立的货币流通域瓜分并取代的命运,作为主权国家的苏联也就在货币层面被摧毁。考察苏联末期的货币战是探寻苏联解体过程的一条重要线索,对于揭开苏联解体之谜具有一定的启示意义。     

NATO: The United States, Transformation and the War in Afghanistan

During the Bush years, NATO exhibited in stark form two trends which have long characterised its development: periodic exposure to crisis and division, and a subordination to American leadership. Despite signs of American indifference towards the alliance, talk of the Bush administration levering a break with NATO was always overstated, particularly so during its second term of office. Views of NATO after 2004 were shaped by Afghanistan giving rise, in fact, to a return to the alliance on America's part. NATO remains important to Bush's successor but on terms which are as demanding as those of his predecessors. NATO, in other words, is valued in so far as it accords with current US foreign policy priorities. The safest assumption in this regard is that Obama will continue to favour the trend towards a global NATO pursued by the Bush administration. However, retreat (or defeat) in Afghanistan could hasten a contrary trend towards a consolidating NATO with a renewed concentration on the wider Europe.     

俄罗斯东正教在中亚五国

本文考察了俄罗斯东正教在中亚五国的历史与现状,审视了俄罗斯东正教对中亚五国的意义并展望了它在中亚五国的发展前景.本文认为,俄罗斯东正教在中亚五国的历史可以追溯到19世纪,它在中亚五国的发展经历了三个阶段——沙俄时期的扩张阶段、苏联时期的沉浮阶段和中亚五国独立后的复兴阶段.尽管它在宗教规模和影响力上都远不及伊斯兰教,但不可否认,长期以来,它在中亚五国政治、经济与社会文化等方面的发展中发挥了积极的作用.而未来,俄罗斯东正教在中亚五国不仅不会消亡,而且将拥有更令人瞩目的发展前景.     

Ethno-religious dynamics and the emergence of the Hezbe Seri Itehad (Secret Unity Party) in Afghanistan in the late 1940s

The Afghanistani government's discriminatory policies against its ethno-religious minorities from the late nineteenth century to the end of World War II brought widespread resentment, which resulted in many local revolts. After the war, these took on a different dimension and led to the founding of an underground political party, Seri Itehad (Secret Unity). The party was different from the other political parties of the time because its goal was to foment an uprising to overthrow the monarchy and so establish a republic. This paper explores why and how the party emerged, and how the unique characteristics of the party's two co-founders, who had little in common in terms of socio-political and cultural backgrounds, shaped the aims, approach, organization, membership and operation of the party. It also examines the consequences of the uprising.     

Virtual regionalism,regional structures and regime security in Central Asia

The failures of regionalism and regional structures for cooperation between the five CIS Central Asian states are well studied. However, explanations so far do not convincingly account for the apparent enthusiasm of these states for the macro-regional frameworks of the Eurasian Economic Community, the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. This article argues that, as with previous efforts at Central Asian regional self-organization, these broader organizations still largely represent a form of ‘virtual regionalism’. But for the Central Asian states they offer a new and increasingly important function, that of ‘protective integration’. This takes the form of collective political solidarity or ‘bandwagoning’ with Russia (and China in the SCO) against processes and pressures that are perceived as challenging incumbent leaders and their political entourage. A primary motivation for Central Asian leaders' engagement in the EAEC, CSTO and SCO, therefore, is the reinforcement of domestic regime security and the resistance of ‘external’ agendas of good governance or democracy promotion. These goals are concealed behind a discourse that denigrates the imposition of external ‘values’ and continues to give pride of place to national sovereignty. This offers little to overcome the underlying fractures between states in Central Asia.     

2000年以来俄罗斯经济结构的变化及其发展趋势

俄罗斯2020年发展战略实质是要彻底调整经济结构,转向创新发展模式.本文对俄罗斯现有经济结构变化的消极趋势和积极趋势进行了分析,对2020年发展战略的目标、手段和措施进行了客观评述.     

Secrecy and military expenditures in the Russian budget

ABSTRACT

This article proposes a transparent method for collecting, structuring, and analyzing Russian budget data on defense and security-related expenditures. A precise answer to the question of how big Russia’s defense expenditures are is impossible because of issues concerning secrecy and accounting principles. We circumvent this challenge by constructing lower and upper bounds for Russia’s military expenditure, showing that depending on the chosen measure these have increased from the range of 10.3–31.2% of federal expenditures in 2011 to 12.9–35.4% in 2018. The analysis also yields additional insights into the concept of secrecy in the Russian budget; we show that 39 out of 96 subchapters in the Russian budget contain secret expenditures, many of which are not nominally related to defense or security, and that secret expenditures increased as a share of total expenditures from 12% to 17% between 2011 and 2019.     

Czechoslovakia and its Position within the Solidarity Network of Chilean Communism: A Reflection on the Coup and Resistance against Pinochet from a Country with Worn-out Revolutionary Ideals

The article will analyse the development of the Chilean cause in the politics of Eastern Europe countries since 1973, focusing on the Czechoslovak case. On the one hand, it will prove that during the communist government Czechoslovakia played an important role in the international campaign for the resistance against the dictatorship at a worldwide level. On the other hand, it posits that the propaganda aimed at Czechoslovakia, which sought to kindle society's belief in the revolutionary ideals strongly affected after the Soviet invasion in 1968, turned out to be much less effective.     

State engagement with non-state justice: how the experience in Kyrgyzstan can reinforce the need for legitimacy in Afghanistan

Currently there is a question of whether and how Afghanistan should engage non-state councils of elders to resolve disputes. In order to harness their benefits (e.g. efficiency), control their abuses (e.g. occasional controversial resolutions), and stabilize the resolution of disputes, some have argued that formal links should be established between the state judicial system and non-state councils of elders in Afghanistan. Others argue that mere informal links between the two systems should be established. Still others suggest that prior models of state engagement in Afghanistan should be revived. In Kyrgyzstan, just 65 miles north of Afghanistan, the Tsarist, Soviet and post-Soviet administrations have used various methods to engage non-state councils of elders. Despite these vastly different attempts at controlling local dispute resolutions, elders independently resolved disputes outside of Tsarist and Soviet control and continue to resolve disputes outside of post-Soviet state control in Kyrgyzstan. This phenomenon highlights the need for legitimacy in any models of state engagement that are considered for Afghanistan. If, as observed in Kyrgyzstan, people do not use state-sanctioned local councils in Afghanistan, then their purposes may be frustrated. Therefore, in addition to reviewing the experience with state engagement in other parts of the world, policy makers in Afghanistan should also review the historical and contemporary experience with state engagement in Kyrgyzstan. As the need for legitimacy is reconsidered and applied to the design of models for Afghanistan, it may be more likely that those models will be used by more people in Afghanistan and that their purposes will be furthered.     

俄国驻中国喀什噶尔领事彼得罗夫斯基与近代英俄大博弈

尼古拉·费奥多罗维奇·彼得罗夫斯基是俄国驻我国新疆喀什噶尔第一任领事,其任期正值近代英国与俄国的中亚大博弈时期.彼得罗夫斯基利用其在当地的影响力,精心编织情报网络,培训情报人员,收集新疆地区军事政治要情,为俄国推行对华侵略政策提供信息服务,并严密监视英国动向,协助俄国军队占领我国帕米尔地区.在经济方面,彼得罗夫斯基通过扩大俄国商圈、打压英国在新疆的贸易和扰乱金融体系等手段,帮助俄国扩大对新疆的贸易.此外,彼得罗夫斯基利用职务之便在我国新疆喀什噶尔及其周边地区大肆劫掠文物,并与俄国国内积极互动,为俄国考察者提供文物信息和物质支持,在此方面,也将英国视为最大竞争对手.在彼得罗夫斯基的苦心经营下,19世纪末20世纪初俄国在新疆地区的影响力得到极大的扩张,无论在政治、经济还是文物掠夺方面,相对于英国均占据了先机.     

俄罗斯与中国社会经济体系改革进程与模式比较研究——以俄中住房体系改革为视角

住房体系改革作为整体经济与社会制度变迁的一个组成部分,不仅对住房模式带来巨大的影响,同时还影响到一个国家的经济发展与社会问题的形成。仅就对经济的短期贡献而言,中国的住房体系改革成就无疑是引人瞩目的,而俄罗斯住房体系改革并未给经济增长带来额外的贡献。但从改革生成的结果现状,特别是已经形成的住房体系模式而言,中国住房体系改革结果的后期修正代价已经显现且成本巨大。在已经成熟的市场经济体系的未来制度改革设计方面,俄罗斯住房体系的制度变迁也许可以给我们提供一些思考的路径。     

Conclusions: security culture and transnational challenges – ECOWAS in comparative perspective

Drawing upon the various contributions to this special issue, this concluding article reflects upon the ways in which a shared security culture has influenced how the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has responded to transnational challenges. It then attempts to contextualise the ECOWAS approach by providing a brief comparative analysis of how other regional arrangements in Africa and Asia have addressed transnational challenges.     

Domestic–External Linkages and the Cold War in 1953 and 1989: Using International Relations Theory and Comparative Politics to Explain the End of the Cold War

Drawing on theories of international relations (IR) and comparative politics, this article explains why the cold war ended in 1989 rather than 1953. Numerous scholars have used IR theory to discuss the end of the cold war, but most of the circumstances they highlight were also present in the spring of 1953, right after the death of Joseph Stalin. This article presents three broad theoretical approaches that deal with the connection between domestic politics and international relations, and it then shows how these approaches can help us understand the similarities and differences between 1953 and 1989. In particular, the article emphasises the importance of time. In the spring of 1953, the window of opportunity was very brief—only a few months, which was insufficient for the two main cold war antagonists to overcome their deeply entrenched suspicions and make far-reaching adjustments in their policies. In the latter half of the 1980s, by contrast, the sweeping reorientation of east–west relations occurred over several years, giving policy-makers on both sides sufficient leeway to adapt and to 'learn' new ways of interacting.     

The Final Frontiers of Healthcare Universalisation in Costa Rica and Panama

This article explains how Costa Rica and Panama, two Central American countries with nearly universal public healthcare programmes, have come to enjoy such broad coverage. It then describes the distinct paths each is taking towards reaching the populations still left out of healthcare coverage. Costa Rica is seeking to bring all residents under the umbrella of its ILO‐style social security plan. Panama is targeting the rural poor with a package of defined interventions aimed at maternal and child mortality. The article frames these cases within the literature on the varieties of universalism.     

State,Society, and Economic Development in Sports Life Cycles: The Case of Boxing in Korea

This study documents the rise and fall of boxing in Korea since its introduction in 1912. The participation of amateur athletes in boxing has decreased sharply since the 1980s. Also, the popularity of professional boxing among sports fans has diminished in recent decades. I consider boxing as a “product” that is “consumed” by individuals as participants and fans. I apply product life-cycle theory in analyzing the changing popularity of boxing. I argue that changes in the tastes of sports fans are closely linked to economic development, industrialization and standard of living. I present the rise in the popularity of soccer, baseball, and golf as illustrations of the changing tastes of consumers of sports that have accompanied economic development and social changes as well as the changing government policies on sports.

Foreign Investment and Trade in Cuban Development: A 50-Year Reassessment with Emphasis on the Post-1990 Period

This article provides a 50-year reassessment of foreign investment and trade in Cuba and locates this analysis within Cuban debates on development and the economics of transition. Transformations contextualised in these debates cover three periods. The 1959–1989 period was characterised by nationalisations and expropriations, the imposition of the US trade embargo, and the trade and economic assistance agreements signed with the Soviet Union. The Special Period crisis emerged in the 1990s and Cuba had to turn to foreign investment and alternative trade options while continuing to reject the adoption of open regionalism and neoliberal policies. The 2005–2008 period was characterised by Cuba's incorporation into the Bolivarian Alternative, a new regional integration model.