Biological protective factors of criminal offending: implications for risk assessment research and practice

Despite the recognition of the practical and theoretical contributions of protective factors in risk assessment practice, the field has granted significant attention to psychosocial protective factors to the apparent neglect of biological protective factors. This review found a wealth of evidence which strongly and convincingly indicates that biological factors such as high intelligent quotient, executive functioning, skin conductance, and resting heart rate offer protection against criminal and antisocial behaviors. More importantly, the literature is supportive of the view that both risk and protective factors co-occur in the same variables, thus questioning the practice of classifying a set of variables as strictly risk or protective. Specifically, the risk–protective effect is contingent upon individual’s rating as high or low on the factor in question. It is recommended that researchers, academicians, and practitioners strive in their efforts to canvass other salient factors beyond the psychosocial factors as these factors can significantly and positively impact the risk assessment field, both theoretically and practically.     

The predictive validity of youth violence risk assessment tools: a systematic review

ABSTRACT

This paper reports the findings of a systematic search of published literature which reports the predictive validity of violence risk assessment tools specifically designed for use with youth. A total of 38 studies, involving 9,307 participants, reported data for six different tools; the most common of which were the SAVRY and the YLS/CMI. Each of the tools demonstrated at least moderate levels of predictive validity, with the predictive validity of several newer assessment tools yet to be established. The results provide an up-to-date overview of the state of knowledge in an area in which practitioners make choices about which tools to use on an almost daily basis. It is important that practitioners are aware of the strength of evidence that is available to support the choice of violence risk assessment tools and the interpretation of results.     

Predictive accuracy of static risk factors for Canadian Indigenous offenders compared to non-Indigenous offenders: implications for risk assessment scales

ABSTRACT

The over-representation of Indigenous offenders in Canadian prisons highlights the importance of research on the generalizability of potential static risk factors for this group. The current investigation examined whether 87 static indicators currently assessed in Canadian federal prisons were differentially present and related to outcomes (revocations, general recidivism, and violent recidivism) for Indigenous (n?=?1500) and non-Indigenous (n?=?6684) male federal offenders. The follow-up was eight months for revocations and five years for any/violent recidivism. Indigenous offenders scored significantly higher risk than non-Indigenous offenders on the majority of the indicators (particularly criminal history indicators). Generally, most criminal history indicators and some offence severity indicators predicted revocations, general, and violent recidivism for Indigenous offenders; however, several of the indicators had significantly lower accuracy for Indigenous offenders (particularly criminal history indicators). Overall, Indigenous offenders are a higher risk population and several static risk indicators do not perform as well for this group as for non-Indigenous offenders. Nonetheless, there were numerous static indicators that did predict outcomes for Indigenous offenders. The current findings suggest that it is possible to meaningfully assess static risk for recidivism among Indigenous offenders.     

The null hypothesis is not called that for nothing: statistical tests in randomized trials

This article aims to update readers on different ways to arrange one’s thinking about conventional null hypotheses in randomized trials. It covers basic criticism of conventional hypotheses and, beyond this, covers relevant developments in methodological, organizational, and science policy arenas. This article includes coverage of new ways to frame null hypotheses, new technical resources, standards for registering trials and reporting on them, cumulating results, common mistakes, and post-trial analysis of null results. The paper includes ideas for research and development on each topic.

Actuarial risk assessment and recidivism in a sample of UK intellectually disabled sexual offenders

Abstract

This study examines the effectiveness of three risk assessment instruments: Static-99, Risk Matrix 2000 (RM2000) and the Rapid Risk of Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR), in predicting sexual recidivism among 27 intellectually disabled sex offenders. The overall sexual offence reconviction rate was 30%, while non-recidivists remained offence-free over 76 months of follow-up. Static-99 presented as performing as well as guided clinical judgements in mainstream population studies [area under the curve (AUC)=0.64] exceeding the performance of RM2000 (AUC=0.58) in predicting sexual recidivism. However, the results were not statistically significant. In contrast to previous findings, the RRASOR presented the worst level of prediction (AUC=0.42). These results highlight the need to investigate further with larger sample sizes and in conjunction with more dynamic measures of risk. Proposed relevant factors are discussed in detail.     

Dynamic risk and sexual offending: the conundrum of assessment

ABSTRACT

The potential to reduce sexual victimisation, promote community safety, and decrease incarceration costs has resulted in considerable progress in terms of how we understand and predict sexual recidivism. And yet, the past decade has seen a degree of fragmentation emerge as research attention has shifted away from relative risk prediction (with its focus on static risk factors) to the identification of factors capable of reducing risk through intervention (i.e. dynamic risk). Although static and dynamic risk are often treated as orthogonal constructs [Beech, A. R., & Craig, L. A. (2012). The current status of static and dynamic factors in sexual offender risk assessment. Journal of Aggression, Conflict and Peace Research, 4(4), 169–185. doi:10.1108/17596591211270671], there are arguments to support a claim that the two are in fact functionally related [see Ward, T. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: Scientific kinds or predictive constructs. Psychology, Crime & Law (in 22(01–02), 2–16); Ward, T., & Beech, A. R. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: A theoretical dead-end? Psychology, Crime & Law, 21(2), 100–113. This discussion clearly affects how we assess dynamic risk. This review considered several commonly used methods of assessment and the evidence offered for their predictive accuracy. Of note were differences in the predictive accuracy of single psychometric measures versus composite scores of dynamic risk domains and the conventions used for establishing effect sizes for risk assessment tools.     

On risking risk assessment of delinquent juveniles: some questions concerning the role of psychopathy

In recent years much research effort has been directed at assessing psychopathic personality disorder in juveniles and at devising structured assessment procedures for recidivism risk. Clinicians, however, are often reluctant to incorporate this recent research into their practice. While accepting the importance of a better understanding of the development of psychopathic personality disorder, we discuss three arguments against the uncritical application of current research findings concerning the disorder and its clinical value as a risk factor. We briefly review empirical evidence for the role of the disorder in risk assessment. A developmental psychopathology argument against current thinking about juvenile psychopathic personality disorder, and a criminological argument against risk assessment but in favor of a desistance approach to delinquency are discussed.     

Referrers' views of structured professional judgement risk assessment of sexual offenders: A qualitative study

Abstract

The Risk for Sexual Violence Protocol is a structured professional judgement (SPJ) tool that aids risk assessment of sexual violence. It is widely used internationally. The aim of this study was to explore the clinical practice of SPJ risk assessment and risk management through qualitative analysis of the accounts of users of these assessments. Questionnaires and semi-structured interviews were conducted with a sample of 31 criminal justice professionals in southeast Scotland. The participants' accounts were explored using the framework method. Five themes emerged from this analysis: informing risk management; confirming what was known and giving weight; understanding personality; treatment; and the usefulness and limitations of risk assessment. The participants reported that the assessments were influential with respect to risk management. The study revealed some important implications for service development. The authors suggest possible future use of the framework method in research investigating the risk assessment of sexual violence.     

Working with sex offenders in a climate of public blame and anxiety: How to make defensible decisions for risk

Abstract

Work with sex offenders takes place in a climate of public blame and anxiety. This requires practitioners to adopt the highest standards of practice to ensure that defensible decisions are made. These are decisions that must withstand hindsight scrutiny in the light of a risk management failure. This paper reviews the key practice points that will assist practitioners in making defensible decisions, and the key challenges for practitioners in this challenging area of work.     

Mapping an agenda for the study of youth sexual aggression in Europe: assessment,principles of good practice,and the multilevel analysis of risk factors

ABSTRACT

Sexual aggression is a serious threat to young people's sexual health in Europe, but establishing the exact scale of the problem has been hampered by a variety of conceptual and methodological problems. This article presents a framework for studying youth sexual aggression that addresses both prevalence and risk factors of victimisation and perpetration. It proposes a research tool to comprehensively assess the perpetration of, and victimisation by, sexual aggression that captures different coercive strategies, sexual acts, victim–perpetrator relations, and gender constellations. The instrument is rooted in a clear conceptual definition of sexual aggression and was pilot-tested in 10 countries of the European Union (EU). Furthermore, a list of good practice criteria is proposed to promote the quality and comparability of research on youth sexual aggression in Europe. A multilevel approach combining individual-level and country-level predictors of sexual aggression is outlined and illustrated with data from the pilot study in 10 countries.     

Socially desirable responding and psychometric assessment of dynamic risk in sexual offenders against children

Does socially desirable responding (SDR) represent a threat to the validity of dynamic risk assessment in sex offenders’ self-reports? We studied a sample of men (N?=?218) who completed a psychometric assessment battery while enrolled at Kia Marama, a prison-based treatment program for sexual offenders against children. SDR, as measured by the Marlowe-Crowne scale, was elevated compared to non-offender samples, increased from pre- to post-treatment, and was negatively correlated with dynamic risk (rs?=??.30 to ?.40), consistent with previous research. Measures of dynamic risk factors derived from the psychometric battery were correlated with sexual recidivism, but correlations were little changed when variance associated with SDR was removed using a regression procedure [Mills, J. F., &; Kroner, D. G. (2006). Impression management and self-report among violent offenders. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 21(2), 178–192.]. These results suggest that there is a substantial component of the variance in psychometric self-reports of sexual offenders that is associated with SDR (approximately 10%), but that it does not compromise the predictive or construct validity of dynamic risk measures derived from these reports.     

Emotions and terrorism research: A case for a social-psychological agenda

Limited attention has been paid to the intersection of emotions and the etiology of terrorism. Instead, research priorities have tended to focus on the structural (e.g., poverty; weak and failing states), sociopolitical (e.g., U.S. foreign policy; a “clash of civilizations”), or codal (e.g., madrassas; Wahhabism). The aim here is to outline an agenda which transitions discourse related to the “body” of the terrorist (i.e., his/her historical and social positioning) to one focused on intrapsychic and interpersonal emotional processes. As such, scholarship's predictive and explanatory capacities will be heightened if it adopts a perspective grounded in the emotions of terrorists and their source communities, particularly for those phenomena that suggest a fluidity of movement of actors across a continuum of zealotry. Criminology and criminal justice are well suited to assess the expressive byproducts of humiliated fury, contempt, moral outrage, and disgust and how such emotions may distillate as impulses that form a basis for terror.     

Violence risk and gang affiliation in youth offenders: a recidivism study

Abstract

Youth gangs are ubiquitous around the world and have been problematic for the social and criminal justice agencies. Despite widespread public concern, there has been relatively scarce empirical scrutiny of youth gangs internationally and little outside of America and Europe. In particular, the activities of youth gangs, the function of gang membership, the criminogenic needs of gang-affiliated youth, and the risk of criminal recidivism for gang-affiliated youth remain unclear. Against this background, this study explored the sociodemographic characteristics, risk and rate of criminal recidivism in a cohort of 165 male youth offenders in Singapore, of which 58 were gang-affiliated. Multivariate analyses revealed that gang-affiliated youth offenders were significantly more likely to have histories of substance use, weapon use and violence than nongang-affiliated youth offenders. Gang-affiliated offenders also scored higher on measures of risk for recidivism (SAVRY and YLS/CMI), and engaged in violent and other criminal behaviors more frequently during follow-up. These differences indicate a significant relationship between gang affiliation and criminal recidivism in youth offenders. Furthermore, these findings have important clinical and policy implications, indicating an increased requirement for additional and more intensive assessment and tailored interventions for gang-affiliated youth offenders.     

Assessment of violence risk in youth for juvenile court: relevant factors for clinical judgment

BACKGROUND: Assessment of violence risk in youth for juvenile court needs to be improved. AIM: To determine which items of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) are recorded in pre-trial mental health evaluations and which of these items are associated with the clinical judgment of the risk of violent recidivism. METHOD: A total of one hundred forensic diagnostic juvenile court files were rated with regard to the presence or absence of the thirty SAVRY risk items: ten historical, six contextual and eight individual items, and six protective items. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to examine the relationship between SAVRY risk items and the clinical judgment of violence risk. RESULTS: Most SAVRY-items had been recorded in the files. However, five historical items and the contextual item 'rejection by peers' did not appear in 25-62% of the files. Especially SAVRY items like 'negative-attitudes' and 'psychopathic traits' were the most powerful predictors for clinical judgment of high violence risk. Unexpectedly, historical items played a minor role in clinical judgment. CONCLUSION: Prospective research is needed with the use of SAVRY-items to improve evidence based violence risk assessment in court ordered mental health evaluations of youngsters.     

HCR-20 violence risk assessments as a guide for treating and managing violence risk in a forensic psychiatric setting

Abstract

Over the past decades there has been a vast development in the research into risk factors for violence and the development of risk assessment instruments. One instrument that has been given special attention is the HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme. However, little attention has been paid to the clinical applicability of this tool, i.e. how does this assessment scheme perform when utilized in clinical practice as a tool to guide intervention and management in order to alleviate risk of violent behaviour? The present study was a true prospective study into the utilization of the HCR-20 as a clinical routine. Data on forensic psychiatric patients (n = 81) from a forensic unit in Denmark are presented. As part of a clinical routine all patients were assessed for risk of future violence utilizing the structured professional judgement model, the HCR-20. Outcome measures were aggressive episodes during hospitalization and new convictions post discharge. The predictive validity of the HCR-20 was lower compared with previous findings. It is argued that this does not necessarily indicate poor predictive accuracy of the HCR-20. Rather, it may indicate that the HCR-20 is suitable for guiding risk management in order to prevent violent behaviour.     

Typologies,risk and recidivism in partner-violent men with the B-SAFER: a pilot study

The research describes the criminal profile of 100 imprisoned partner-violent men (PVM) in Spain, and the follow-up for an average of 15 months of 40 released cases. The ability of the Brief Spousal Assault Form for the Evaluation of Risk (B-SAFER) to classify offenders according to typologies and to predict recidivism is analyzed. The results show that PVM have low level of specialization (only 45% limit their criminal activity to intimate partner violence (IPV)) and high level of recidivism (47% previously have been in prison, and 41% have prior arrest for IPV). The B-SAFER shows a high capacity to classify according to batterers typologies (accuracy of 79% with a score ≥13) in two groups: non-pathological and antisocial/pathological offenders. After prison release, 17.5% relapsed (15% in IPV), and 66% have done so within the first year. The B-SAFER had a predictive accuracy of 70% (sensitivity 100%). From antisocial/pathological group, 21% have recidivate compared to 12.5% in non-pathological aggressors, with an over-representation of antisocial/pathological subtype among recidivists (71%). The best predictive variables are the justification of violence, age at first imprisonment, and treatment. There is a 9% of recidivism among treated offenders compared to 50% in the untreated group.     

Dynamic risk and violence in individuals with an intellectual disability: tool development and initial validation

Without a violence risk assessment designed for people with an intellectual disability (ID), assessors are reliant upon tools developed for mainstream offenders or develop their own tools. This study describes the early stages of development of the Current Risk of Violence (CuRV), an informant-reported measure of dynamic risk for aggression in adults with an ID. The pool of items was generated from a multitude of sources. Predictive accuracy for aggression was tested prospectively among 64 adults with an ID and history of aggression. The 34-item CuRV was found to be a brief, uncomplicated risk assessment. Initial findings revealed good predictive validity over a five-month period: area under the curve (AUC) range from .72, 95% CI [.59, .85] to .77, 95% CI [.66, .89]. These preliminary findings suggest that the CuRV may assist staff to perform assessments of risk in busy clinical settings. Future research effort is needed to fully explore the psychometric properties of the CuRV.