Predictive accuracy of static risk factors for Canadian Indigenous offenders compared to non-Indigenous offenders: implications for risk assessment scales

ABSTRACT

The over-representation of Indigenous offenders in Canadian prisons highlights the importance of research on the generalizability of potential static risk factors for this group. The current investigation examined whether 87 static indicators currently assessed in Canadian federal prisons were differentially present and related to outcomes (revocations, general recidivism, and violent recidivism) for Indigenous (n?=?1500) and non-Indigenous (n?=?6684) male federal offenders. The follow-up was eight months for revocations and five years for any/violent recidivism. Indigenous offenders scored significantly higher risk than non-Indigenous offenders on the majority of the indicators (particularly criminal history indicators). Generally, most criminal history indicators and some offence severity indicators predicted revocations, general, and violent recidivism for Indigenous offenders; however, several of the indicators had significantly lower accuracy for Indigenous offenders (particularly criminal history indicators). Overall, Indigenous offenders are a higher risk population and several static risk indicators do not perform as well for this group as for non-Indigenous offenders. Nonetheless, there were numerous static indicators that did predict outcomes for Indigenous offenders. The current findings suggest that it is possible to meaningfully assess static risk for recidivism among Indigenous offenders.     

The null hypothesis is not called that for nothing: statistical tests in randomized trials

This article aims to update readers on different ways to arrange one’s thinking about conventional null hypotheses in randomized trials. It covers basic criticism of conventional hypotheses and, beyond this, covers relevant developments in methodological, organizational, and science policy arenas. This article includes coverage of new ways to frame null hypotheses, new technical resources, standards for registering trials and reporting on them, cumulating results, common mistakes, and post-trial analysis of null results. The paper includes ideas for research and development on each topic.

On risking risk assessment of delinquent juveniles: some questions concerning the role of psychopathy

In recent years much research effort has been directed at assessing psychopathic personality disorder in juveniles and at devising structured assessment procedures for recidivism risk. Clinicians, however, are often reluctant to incorporate this recent research into their practice. While accepting the importance of a better understanding of the development of psychopathic personality disorder, we discuss three arguments against the uncritical application of current research findings concerning the disorder and its clinical value as a risk factor. We briefly review empirical evidence for the role of the disorder in risk assessment. A developmental psychopathology argument against current thinking about juvenile psychopathic personality disorder, and a criminological argument against risk assessment but in favor of a desistance approach to delinquency are discussed.     

Emotions and terrorism research: A case for a social-psychological agenda

Limited attention has been paid to the intersection of emotions and the etiology of terrorism. Instead, research priorities have tended to focus on the structural (e.g., poverty; weak and failing states), sociopolitical (e.g., U.S. foreign policy; a “clash of civilizations”), or codal (e.g., madrassas; Wahhabism). The aim here is to outline an agenda which transitions discourse related to the “body” of the terrorist (i.e., his/her historical and social positioning) to one focused on intrapsychic and interpersonal emotional processes. As such, scholarship's predictive and explanatory capacities will be heightened if it adopts a perspective grounded in the emotions of terrorists and their source communities, particularly for those phenomena that suggest a fluidity of movement of actors across a continuum of zealotry. Criminology and criminal justice are well suited to assess the expressive byproducts of humiliated fury, contempt, moral outrage, and disgust and how such emotions may distillate as impulses that form a basis for terror.     

Socially desirable responding and psychometric assessment of dynamic risk in sexual offenders against children

Does socially desirable responding (SDR) represent a threat to the validity of dynamic risk assessment in sex offenders’ self-reports? We studied a sample of men (N?=?218) who completed a psychometric assessment battery while enrolled at Kia Marama, a prison-based treatment program for sexual offenders against children. SDR, as measured by the Marlowe-Crowne scale, was elevated compared to non-offender samples, increased from pre- to post-treatment, and was negatively correlated with dynamic risk (rs?=??.30 to ?.40), consistent with previous research. Measures of dynamic risk factors derived from the psychometric battery were correlated with sexual recidivism, but correlations were little changed when variance associated with SDR was removed using a regression procedure [Mills, J. F., &; Kroner, D. G. (2006). Impression management and self-report among violent offenders. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 21(2), 178–192.]. These results suggest that there is a substantial component of the variance in psychometric self-reports of sexual offenders that is associated with SDR (approximately 10%), but that it does not compromise the predictive or construct validity of dynamic risk measures derived from these reports.     

Assessment of violence risk in youth for juvenile court: relevant factors for clinical judgment

BACKGROUND: Assessment of violence risk in youth for juvenile court needs to be improved. AIM: To determine which items of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) are recorded in pre-trial mental health evaluations and which of these items are associated with the clinical judgment of the risk of violent recidivism. METHOD: A total of one hundred forensic diagnostic juvenile court files were rated with regard to the presence or absence of the thirty SAVRY risk items: ten historical, six contextual and eight individual items, and six protective items. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to examine the relationship between SAVRY risk items and the clinical judgment of violence risk. RESULTS: Most SAVRY-items had been recorded in the files. However, five historical items and the contextual item 'rejection by peers' did not appear in 25-62% of the files. Especially SAVRY items like 'negative-attitudes' and 'psychopathic traits' were the most powerful predictors for clinical judgment of high violence risk. Unexpectedly, historical items played a minor role in clinical judgment. CONCLUSION: Prospective research is needed with the use of SAVRY-items to improve evidence based violence risk assessment in court ordered mental health evaluations of youngsters.     

Assessing change in dynamic risk factors in forensic psychiatric inpatients: relationship with psychopathy and recidivism

This study explored change in dynamic risk for violence using the Clinical and Risk Management subscales of the Historical Clinical and Risk Management-20 version 3 (HCR-20 v3) and sought to determine whether change was associated with violent recidivism. The association between the magnitude of change and psychopathy was also assessed. Participants were 40 male (n = 32) and female (n = 8) forensic psychiatric inpatients discharged from a secure forensic mental health service. Results showed that participants significantly improved on the HCR-20v3 Clinical subscale but significantly worsened on the Risk Management subscale. Psychopathy was unrelated to change in Clinical and Risk Management subscales. The hypothesis that changes in dynamic risk would predict recidivism over and above total pre-treatment risk (HCR-20v3 Total score) and psychopathy was not supported. These results suggest that improvements in mental state risk factors alone are insufficient with regard to lowering violence risk.     

Assessing dynamic risk and protective factors in the community: examining the validity of the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry

Recently, there has been a growing interest in advancing the state of offender risk assessment: particularly through the development of risk instruments to assist with parole management and the incorporation of protective factors specific to re-entry. The current study's aim was to validate a measure of stable and acute dynamic risk factors and protective factors used by probation officers managing offenders in the community: the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-Entry (DRAOR). Empirical examination of the structure of DRAOR scores soon after release from prison suggested four components, rather than the theoretically proposed three-subscale structure. Both the original three subscales and the four new subscales showed good convergent validity with other dynamic risk instruments, and reliably predicted new convictions; however, only the new stable component added significant incremental predictive power over existing static and dynamic risk instruments. These findings provide initial support for the validity of the DRAOR; suggestions for future research are discussed.     

Forensic mental health assessment in France: Recommendations for quality improvement

The quality of forensic mental health assessment has been a growing concern in various countries on both sides of the Atlantic, but the legal systems are not always comparable and some aspects of forensic assessment are specific to a given country. This paper describes the legal context of forensic psychological assessment in France (i.e. pre-trial investigation phase entrusted to a judge, with mental health assessment performed by preselected professionals called “experts” in French), its advantages and its pitfalls. Forensic psychiatric or psychological assessment is often an essential and decisive element in criminal cases, but since a judiciary scandal which was made public in 2005 (the Outreau case) there has been increasing criticism from the public and the legal profession regarding the reliability of clinical conclusions. Several academic studies and a parliamentary report have highlighted various faulty aspects in both the judiciary process and the mental health assessments. The heterogeneity of expert practices in France appears to be mainly related to a lack of consensus on several core notions such as mental health diagnosis or assessment methods, poor working conditions, lack of specialized training, and insufficient familiarity with the Code of Ethics. In this article we describe and analyze the French practice of forensic psychologists and psychiatrists in criminal cases and propose steps that could be taken to improve its quality, such as setting up specialized training courses, enforcing the Code of Ethics for psychologists, and calling for consensus on diagnostic and assessment methods.     

Incidents of discrimination and risk for delinquency: A longitudinal test of strain theory with an African American sample

This article examines the relationship between racial discrimination and delinquency. Using longitudinal data collected on approximately 700 African American children, we begin by establishing an association between exposure to discrimination and delinquent behavior. Next, we use structural equation modeling to test various hypotheses regarding the emotional and cognitive factors that mediate this association. For boys, the association between discrimination and delinquency is mediated by feelings of anger and depression and by the belief that aggression is a necessary interpersonal tactic. The results are somewhat different for girls. Although anger and depression mediate part of the effect of discrimination on delinquency, discrimination continues to display a small but significant direct effect. The implications of these findings for criminological theory are discussed.     

Static and Dynamic Patient Characteristics as Predictors of Criminal Recidivism: A Prospective Study in a Dutch Forensic Psychiatric Sample

If clinicians in forensic psychiatry want to reduce risk of reoffending in their patients, they require insight into dynamic risk factors, and evidence that these add predictive power to static risk indicators. Predictors need to be evaluated under clinically realistic circumstances. This study aimed to validate dynamic and static variables as predictors of reconviction in a naturalistic outcome study. Data on static and dynamic risk factors were collected for 151 patients discharged from Dutch forensic psychiatric hospitals. Community follow-up was prospective, with a 5.5 year minimum. A prediction model was developed using Cox regression analysis. The magnitude of the predictive power of this model was estimated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The final prediction model contained four static and no dynamic predictors. The model's ROC area under the curve was .79 (95% CI .69–.89). Clinical risk ratings were non-predictive. Post hoc analyses exploring the influence of subgroups of patients did not yield better models. It is concluded that a small set of static predictors yielded a good estimate of future reconvictions; inclusion of dynamic predictors did not add predictive power.     

Discriminant function analysis for sex assessment in pelvic girdle bones: sample from the contemporary Mexican population

Sex assessment of skeletal remains plays an important role in forensic anthropology. The pelvic bones are the most studied part of the postcranial skeleton for the assessment of sex. It is evident that a population-specific approach improves rates of accuracy within the group. The present study proposes a discriminant function method for the sex assessment of skeletal remains from a contemporary Mexican population. A total of 146 adult human pelvic bones (61 females and 85 males) from the skeletal series pertaining to the National Autonomous University of Mexico were evaluated. Twenty-four direct metrical parameters of coxal and sacral bones were measured and subsequently, sides and sex differences were evaluated, applying a stepwise discriminant function analysis. Coxal and sacra functions achieved accuracies of 99% and 87%, respectively. These analyses follow a population-specific approach; nevertheless, we consider that our results are applicable to any other Hispanic samples for purposes of forensic human identification.     

Infant death scene investigation and the assessment of potential risk factors for asphyxia: a review of 209 sudden unexpected infant deaths

At the Wayne County Medical Examiner Office (WCMEO) in Detroit, Michigan, from 2001 to 2004, thorough scene investigations were performed on 209 sudden and unexpected infant deaths, ages 3 days to 12 months. The 209 cases were reviewed to assess the position of the infant at the time of discovery and identify potential risk factors for asphyxia including bed sharing, witnessed overlay, wedging, strangulation, prone position, obstruction of the nose and mouth, coverage of the head by bedding and sleeping on a couch. Overall, one or more potential risk factors were identified in 178 of 209 cases (85.2%). The increasing awareness of infant positions at death has led to a dramatic reduction in the diagnosis of sudden infant death syndrome at the WCMEO. This study suggests that asphyxia plays a greater role in many sudden infant deaths than has been historically attributed to it.