Foot Patrol in Violent Crime Hot Spots: The Longitudinal Impact of Deterrence and Posttreatment Effects of Displacement

This study revisited the Philadelphia Foot Patrol Experiment and explored the longitudinal deterrent effects of foot patrol in violent crime hot spots using Sherman's (1990) concepts of initial and residual deterrence decay as a theoretical framework. It also explored whether the displacement uncovered during the initial evaluation decayed after the experiment ended. Multilevel growth curve models revealed that beats staffed for 22 weeks had a decaying deterrent effect during the course of the experiment, whereas those staffed for 12 weeks did not. None of the beats had residual deterrence effects relative to the control areas. The displacement uncovered had decayed during the 3 months after the experiment, and it is theoretically plausible that previously displaced offenders returned to the original target areas causing inverse displacement. These results are discussed in the context of Durlauf and Nagin's (2011) recent proposal that prison sentences should be shortened, mandatory minimum statutes repealed, and the cost savings generated by these policy changes shifted into policing budgets to convey more effectively the certainty of detection. It is concluded that if Durlauf and Nagin's proposal is to succeed, then more holistic policing strategies would likely be necessary. Foot patrol as a specific policing tactic seems to fit nicely into a variety of policing paradigms, and suggestions for incorporating them to move beyond strictly enforcement‐based responses are presented.     

Hot Spots of Juvenile Crime: A Longitudinal Study of Arrest Incidents at Street Segments in Seattle,Washington

Recent studies have shown that crime is concentrated at micro level units of geography defined as hot spots. Despite this growing evidence of the concentration of crime at place, studies to date have dealt primarily with adult crime or have failed to distinguish between adult and juvenile offenses. In this paper, we identify crime incidents in which a juvenile was arrested at street segments in Seattle, Washington, over a 14-year period, to assess the extent to which officially recorded juvenile crime is concentrated at hot spots. Using group-based trajectory analysis, we also assess the stability and variability of crime at street segments over the period of the study. Our findings suggest that officially recorded juvenile crime is strongly concentrated. Indeed, just 86 street segments in Seattle include one-third of crime incidents in which a juvenile was arrested during the study period. While we do observe variability over time in trajectories identified in the study, we also find that high rate juvenile crime street segments remain relatively stable across the 14 years examined. Finally, confirming the importance of routine activity theory in understanding the concentration of juvenile crime in hot spots, we find a strong connection between high rate trajectory groups and places likely to be a part of juvenile activity spaces. Though place-based crime prevention has not been a major focus of delinquency prevention, our work suggests that it may be an area with great promise.     

城中村犯罪热点研究:以深圳L村为例

城中村一直被笼统地描述为犯罪高发区。利用深圳L村2007、2008年的犯罪记录,发现城中村的犯罪并不是平均分布的,城中村中居住区的犯罪密度最高,其次为商业区和村落周边区域,工业区的犯罪密度最低。城中村的犯罪热点主要集中在居住区、商业区等人员密集的区域、村落周边等偏僻地点。犯罪热点形成的原因在于,偏僻的地理位置、复杂的地理环境、高度拥挤的居住环境导致区域的监控能力弱,犯罪容易实施。从犯罪预防的角度,对不同区域的热点,应提供不同的解决途径,居住区的犯罪防御应主要解决防盗问题,商业区主要解决欺诈和打架问题,周边地区应主要解决抢劫问题。     

犯罪热点成因:基于空间相关性的解释

随着犯罪地理学的兴起,犯罪聚集分布及热点相对稳定分布的原因亟待释疑。鉴于热点的空间属性,从空间相关性出发,在制图验证犯罪聚集性和热点稳定性的前提下,以回归分析筛选空间变量,发现标志性建筑等五种因素在63.7%的程度上影响盗窃密度变化;创建空间滞后模型,量化犯罪自相关对空间相关性的影响,发现标志性建筑对盗窃犯罪有较强吸引力,商业点密度等因素与犯罪呈线性正相关,公交站点密度等因素与犯罪呈非线性关系,且存在犯罪临界值。这种从相关到因果的分析思路为犯罪原因研究带来了经验到量化、模糊到精确、定量到定性的方法论改进,从聚焦稳定热点、依靠数据决策、评估犯罪风险、借力城市设计方面为创新立体化防控提供了理论支持。     

The Trajectories of Crime at Places: Understanding the Patterns of Disaggregated Crime Types

Objectives

Investigate the spatial concentrations and the stability of trajectories for disaggregated crime types on street segments and intersections in Vancouver, Canada.

Methods

A longitudinal analysis of 16 years of crime data using street segments and intersections as the units of analysis. We use the k-means non-parametric cluster analysis technique considering eight crime types: assault, burglary, robbery, theft, theft of vehicle, theft from vehicle, other, and total crime.

Results

The overall results for the individual crime types versus overall crime are similar: crime is highly concentrated regardless of crime type, most street segment and intersection trajectories are stable over time with the others decreasing, and most decreasing trajectories are in the same general areas. However, there are notable differences across crime types that need to be considered when attempting to understand spatial pattern changes and implement crime prevention initiatives.

Conclusions

The law of crime concentration at places holds in Vancouver, Canada for disaggregated crime types in the context of spatial concentrations and their stability over time. However, notable differences exist across crime types that should be accounted for when developing theory or policy.

     

A New Index for the MMPI‐2 Test for Detecting Dissimulation in Forensic Evaluations: A Pilot Study

This pilot study is the starting point of a potentially broad research project aimed at identifying new strategies for assessing malingering during forensic evaluations. The forensic group was comprised of 67 males who were seeking some sort of certification (e.g., adoption, child custody, driver's license, issuance of gun permits, etc.); the nonforensic group was comprised of 62 healthy male volunteers. Each participant was administered the MMPI‐2. Statistical analyses were conducted on obtained scores of 48 MMPI‐2 scales. In the first step, parametric statistics were adopted to identify the best combination of MMPI‐2 scales that differentiated the two groups of participants. In the second step, frequency‐based, nonparametric methods were used for diagnostic purposes. Results: A model that utilized the best three predictors (“7‐Pt”, “L,” and “1‐Hs”) was developed and used to calculate the Forensic Evaluation Dissimulation Index (FEDI), which features satisfactory diagnostic accuracy (0.9), sensitivity (0.82), specificity (0.81), and likelihood ratio indices (LR+ = 4.32; LR? = 0.22).     

The Impact of Hot Spots Policing on Collective Efficacy: Findings from a Randomized Field Trial

In disadvantaged neighborhoods, prior research has found reduced social cohesion and less willingness among residents to address disruptive behaviors and violations of social norms. This deficiency is commonly associated with higher levels of disorder and crime. Therefore, recent scholarship has begun to consider whether police can help foster collective efficacy, especially in places struggling with serious crime problems. Early results are somewhat mixed. Yet the cooperation hypothesis asserts that when neighborhood residents see police as a more viable and reliable resource, residents will be emboldened to exert informal social control to address problems. Over the last two decades, hot spots policing has been recognized as an effective method to reduce crime. At the same time, there have been few rigorous studies of whether this approach impacts collective efficacy at hot spots. To investigate this question, we conducted an experiment in 71 crime hot spots, comparing a collaborative problem solving versus a directed patrol (police presence) approach versus standard policing practices. Over time, a substantial increase in police presence did appear to promote modest improvements in collective efficacy. We attribute this finding to the cooperation hypothesis.     

Violence in Urban Neighborhoods: A Longitudinal Study of Collective Efficacy and Violent Crime

Objectives

Cross-sectional studies consistently find that neighborhoods with higher levels of collective efficacy experience fewer social problems. Particularly robust is the relationship between collective efficacy and violent crime, which holds regardless of the socio-structural conditions of neighborhoods. Yet due to the limited availability of neighborhood panel data, the temporal relationship between neighborhood structure, collective efficacy and crime is less well understood.

Methods

In this paper, we provide an empirical test of the collective efficacy-crime association over time by bringing together multiple waves of survey and census data and counts of violent crime incident data collected across 148 neighborhoods in Brisbane, Australia. Utilizing three different longitudinal models that make different assumptions about the temporal nature of these relationships, we examine the reciprocal relationships between neighborhood features and collective efficacy with violent crime. We also consider the spatial embeddedness of these neighborhood characteristics and their association with collective efficacy and the concentration of violence longitudinally.

Results

Notably, our findings reveal no direct relationship between collective efficacy and violent crime over time. However, we find a strong reciprocal relationship between collective efficacy and disadvantage and between disadvantage and violence, indicating an indirect relationship between collective efficacy and violence.

Conclusions

The null direct effects for collective efficacy on crime in a longitudinal design suggest that this relationship may not be as straightforward as presumed in the literature. More longitudinal research is needed to understand the dynamics of disadvantage, collective efficacy, and violence in neighborhoods.

     

罪数形态研究述评

在过去的三十年间,我国关于罪数形态的理论研究从无到有、从粗到细。目前,罪数形态已经成为学术界关注程度相当高的一个研究领域。总体来看,在罪数判断标准和一罪类型体系这两个问题上,理论界已经基本形成通说观点,当然也还存在不同声音;与之相比,关于具体罪数形态的概念内涵、处罚原则、存废取舍等诸多问题,则存在更多争议,个别问题的研究显得较为混乱。     

The Effects of a School Policing Program on Crime,Discipline, and Disorder: A Quasi-Experimental Evaluation

This study analyzes the impacts of school-based law enforcement officers on school crime, disciplinary actions, and disciplinary problems in 238 middle and high schools in West Virginia using a non-equivalent groups design and three years of data. Propensity score weights are utilized to reduce selection biases resulting from non-random group assignment in observational data. Binary and multinomial logistic treatment models are used when estimating treatment effects to examine whether the extent to which police officers are present in schools impacts problem outcomes. Findings indicated that while the presence of school police officers increased drug-related crimes and out-of-school suspensions for drug crimes regardless of whether they were present in schools for a single year or multiple years, there were deterrent effects observed for violent crimes and incidents of disorder when police officers were present in schools during all school years. Implications for policy and practice are discussed.

     

Delinquency and Crime Among Youths in the Philippines: A Test of Legal Cynicism

The construct of legal cynicism is gaining currency in the United States and other western developed countries in explaining why people break the law. This construct is viable in societies with strong economies and mature political and criminal justice institutions. This paper asks whether the construct of legal cynicism is applicable in societies with differing economic, political and social conditions. Specifically, the paper investigates whether legal cynicism can explain the delinquent behaviors of youths in the Philippines. Despite diligent efforts to duplicate the measures of legal cynicism, the paper finds that this construct is a weak predictor of youth delinquent behaviors. This contradictory finding is explained by looking at the historical and sociopolitical conditions of the country.     

The Intersection of Crime Seriousness,Discretion, and Race: A Test of the Liberation Hypothesis

Spohn and Cederblom’s interpretation of the liberation hypothesis asserts that with trivial crimes, judges are “liberated” to consider extra-legal attributes such as race when making sentencing decisions. The current study posits that this perspective may be too theoretically simplistic because it fails to distinguish between the concepts of discretion and uncertainty. In light of this argument, we examine the sentencing decisions of felony cases in the Florida circuit courts. Results indicate that blacks and Hispanics are more likely to be imprisoned than whites, and males more so than females. Contrary to expectations, this disparity increases with crime seriousness. Consistent with the imprisonment model, blacks and males receive longer sentences and the effect increases with case seriousness. We found no evidence that the effect of offender extra-legal attributes depends upon the characteristics of the judges handling the cases. Suggestions for future research and implications for the liberation hypothesis are discussed.     

The Moral Mirror Image of Crime: A Comparison of Recorded Crime and Crime Recorded in Fiction

Moral and ethical aspects of crime are often ignored in most criminological research. In order to probe these two dimensions, crime recorded in fiction was compared with statistically recorded crime. Two hypotheses were tested: the first suggested that crime fiction portrayed the “reality” of actual statistics, while the second suggested that crime fiction was totally unrelated to crime statistics. Comparing data obtained from a North American literary journal and crime statistics obtained from a Canadian province, the results of the study supported the second hypothesis and indicated that crime fiction was totally unrelated to recorded statistics. Crime fiction seemed to represent a moral pacemaker of the perceived fears of the public, while crime statistics seem to represent the criminal pulse of society.

The negative correlation between fiction and recorded statistics is a significant find in that it indicates the reading public's preoccupation and fascination with a very small segment of criminal activity in society—an unrealistic fear of serious injury or death due to violent crime, far out of proportion with reality especially when impending doom is much more probable on the highways in automobile accidents.     

Think Nationally,Act Locally: The Municipal-Level Effects of the National Crime Prevention Program in Finland

This paper gauges the effects of the National Crime Prevention Program (NCPP) on the level of crime in Finland. The research design involves comparisons between municipalities that vary in terms of their participation in the NCPP. Is this characteristic related to improvements in community safety? The analyses utilize data from victim surveys as well as police statistics. Findings from each type of analysis suggest that active participation in the national initiative has not resulted in reduced levels of crime and violence. The study concludes with a set of recommendations for improving the effectiveness of the NCPP.     

A Longitudinal Analysis of Japanese Crime From 1926 to 1987: The Pre-War,War, and Post-War Eras

This study examines Japanese crime trends and explores an area rarely investigated by researchers. By focusing on relationships between penal code offenses known to the police and population growth in Japan over the last six decades, it is possible to gain further insight into Nihon's (Japan's) low crime figures. In addition, the paper compares Japanese and American crime rates for selected offenses. The findings support previous research that identified low levels of crime in Japan. During the 62 year period included in this study, population and population density increased considerably in Japan, but crime rates, after fluctuations immediately before and after World War II, dropped significantly. On the average, total penal code offenses, homicide, and arson were greater during the pre-war years, and rape, robbery, and all felonies, as a composite, were higher in the post-war era.     

The Influence of Governors on Veto Override Attempts: A Test of Pivotal Politics

Abstract Using the “switcher” analysis developed by Krehbiel (1998), we examine the ability of Missouri governors to sway legislators on veto override attempts. Our initial results closely mirror Krehbiel's finding that the chief executive successfully achieves influence at and around the veto pivot, but these results change once we take into account the political party of the legislators. Governors are far more likely to influence legislators from their own party, regardless of legislator ideology. Our study provides a rare systematic analysis of gubernatorial influence in the legislative arena, while also contributing to the current debate over preference‐based versus partisan‐based theories of legislatures.     

Crime Places in Context: An Illustration of the Multilevel Nature of Hot Spot Development

Objectives

The present study provides an illustration of a statistical test of the Brantinghams’ theory about the formation of hotspots and the effects that nodes, paths, and environmental backcloth have on their development.

Methods

We used multilevel Poisson regression analysis to explain variation in the count of incidents at each address. Place-level proximity to nodes and paths was measured by using the Euclidian distance from each location to the closest carry-out liquor store, on-premises drinking establishment, and bus route. The broader environmental backcloth was represented by various census block-group characteristics, including density of commercial land use. A three-way place-level interaction as well as a cross-level interaction involving all four key independent variables were used to estimate the Brantinghams’ concept of the overlay of nodes, paths, and backcloth.

Results

The three-way interaction involving the distance to the closest on-premises liquor establishment, the distance to closest carry-out liquor facility, and the distance to the closest bus route was significantly and negatively related to place-level crime incidents. This three-way interaction had effects which varied across neighborhood contexts, with stronger negative effects on crime occurring in neighborhoods characterized by high levels of commercial density.

Conclusion

This study supported the notion of a multilevel theory of crime places and has implications for more effectively addressing crime. In particular, those places with multiple nodes and paths in their proximal environments and dense commercial land within their broader environments likely need additional crime prevention measures to get the same benefit relative to places with multiple nodes and paths in the proximal environments yet little commercial density within their broader environment.