“央强地弱”政治信任结构与抗争性利益表达方式——基于城乡二元分割结构的定量分析

处于转型期的中国社会,抗争性利益表达已经成为公民表达利益诉求的重要方式之一.利用GCSS2010相关调查数据和Logistic回归模型,本文在对居民利益表达途径做“二维四元”划分基础之上,主要考察了中国“央强地弱”政治信任结构与居民抗争性利益表达途径之间的关系,具体就是考察“央-地政治信任差距”与“体制内非惯例化利益表达”和“体制外惯例化利益表达”的关联.研究发现:与非农业人口比,农业人口选择抗争性利益表达的可能性更大;“央强地弱”政治信任结构与抗争性利益表达之间也存在显著性正向相关关系;同时,女性抗争性利益表达参与率要低于男性.对利益表达途径做“二维四元”划分有助于深入把握和理解当前中国抗争性利益表达的发生机制;而厘清政治信任结构与居民抗争性利益表达之间的逻辑,则有助于认清当前中国政府治理中存在的问题.当然,本文还存在一些不足,特别是未能把体制内非惯例化和体制外惯例化利益表达“同时采取”,以及“均未采取”的情况考虑在模型之内.     

Social Capital and Political Trust in Finland: An Individual-level Assessment

Political trust has in previous studies mainly been associated, either positively or negatively with a set of political variables, such as subjective knowledge of and interest in political issues, political efficacy, national pride, post-materialist values and corruption permissiveness. More recently, it has been debated whether or not indicators of social capital also have an impact on political trust. It has been argued that social capital helps to sustain civic virtues and that lack of it will create democratic problems like political dissatisfaction and declining political participation. While trends in social capital seem stable and high at the aggregate level in Finland, the level of political trust has varied to a much larger degree. In this article, indicators of social capital, political variables and social background variables are set against the Finns' trust in politicians and the parliament as well as their satisfaction with democracy. The analysis shows that social capital, as defined by a set of variables comprised of interpersonal trust and voluntary organisational activism, does not, en bloc, prove to be a powerful predictor of political trust. However, when the social capital items are examined as single factors, interpersonal trust seems to have strong impact on all levels of political trust, while the influence of voluntary organisational activity is less evident.     

Political efficacy and trust: A report on the NES pilot study items

Political efficacy and trust—among the most frequently used survey measures of general political attitudes—are often maligned for their lack of reliability and validity. This paper reports results from the National Election Studies 1987 pilot study, which included more than thirty-five efficacy and trust items. Five attitudinal dimensions were hypothesized; four emerged clearly. One scale, internal efficacy, is especially robust; a four- to six-item scale represents a considerable improvement on existing NES measures. External efficacy is distinguished from political trust, at least when the former is measured in terms of the fairness of political procedures and outcomes rather than in terms of elite responsiveness to popular demands. Though less decisive, there also is support for dividing trust into incumbent- and regime-based components. The failure to find a similar incumbent- and regime-based distinction for external efficacy is in accord with theoretical perspectives.Revised version of a paper presented at the 1988 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association.     

Political Trust,Individual‐level Characteristics and Institutional Performance: Evidence from Finland, 2004–13

Several scholars agree that low political trust has fundamental negative implications for society at large. This study tests the power of institutional performance theory in explaining the differences between individuals in political trust (cross‐sectional) and fluctuations of political trust over time (longitudinal). Indeed, the dominant scholarly debate has concerned whether political trust is stable and dependent of endogenous factors such as political socialization and social trust, or whether it is exogenous (i.e., in constant fluctuation due to later experiences with institutions and the outputs they produce). In terms of cross‐sectional differences, the aim is to assess the relative impact institutional performance on political trust of a citizen. As regards the longitudinal approach, political trust varies over time and from an explanatory perspective it is important also to understand how well the institutional performance theory predicts over‐time variation of political trust. The study employs repeated European Social Survey data for Finland between 2004 and 2013. The results show, first and foremost, the strong impact of evaluations of institutional performance on political trust: satisfaction with government and economy explains differences both between individuals and over time. Social trust and welfare state performance are also strong predictors, but they explain differences only at the individual level and do not predict over‐time variations.     

The micro–macro interactive approach to political trust: Quality of representation and substantive representation across Europe

The relevance of the macro-context for understanding political trust has been widely studied in recent decades, with increasing attention paid to micro–macro level interactive relationships. Most of these studies rely on theorising about evaluation based on the quality of representation, stressing that more-educated citizens are most trusting of politics in countries with the least corrupt public domains. In our internationally comparative study, we add to the micro–macro interactive approach by theorising and testing an additional way in which the national context is associated with individual-level political trust, namely evaluation based on substantive representation. The relevance of both types of evaluation is tested by modelling not only macro-level corruption but also context indicators of the ideological stances of the governing cabinet (i.e., the level of its economic egalitarianism and cultural liberalism), and interacting these with individual-level education, economic egalitarianism and cultural liberalism, respectively. As we measure context characteristics separately from people's ideological preferences, we are able to dissect how the macro-context relates to the levels of political trust of different subgroups differently. Data from three waves (2006, 2010, 2014) of the European Social Survey (68,294 respondents in 24 European countries and 62 country-year combinations), enriched with country-level data derived from various sources, including the Chapel Hill Expert Survey, are used in the multi-level regression analyses employed to test our hypotheses. We found support for the micro–macro level interactions theorised by the evaluation based on the quality of representation approach (with higher levels of trust among more-educated citizens in less corrupt countries), as well as for evaluation based on substantive representation in relation to cultural issues (with higher levels of trust among more culturally liberal citizens in countries with more culturally liberal governing cabinets). Our findings indicate that the latter approach is at least equally relevant as the approach conventionally used to explain context differences in political trust. Finally, we conclude our study with a discussion of our findings and avenues for future research.     

Democratic Performance of Parties and Legitimacy in Europe

This article analyses the development of legitimacy across 20 European democracies (1990–2010). The claim is that the democratic performance of parties affects levels of legitimacy. A conceptual and empirical discussion is presented to establish this relationship. Democratic performance is characterised by trusting parties to be responsive to the electorate and responsible in government. Legitimacy is defined as a composite measure representing satisfaction with parties, compliance with the rule of law as well as voter turnout and willingness to protest. The responsiveness of parties appears less representative on public concerns and governmental responsibility appears closer to party interests than to the general interest. Hence, a ‘democratic deficit’ seems to have emerged across Europe, manifested by more electoral volatility, new parties and alternation in government and lower survival rates of governments. This negatively affects trust in parties, parliament and government efficacy. Hence, party behaviour has not strongly contributed to political legitimacy since the 1990s.     

Political Trust, Ideology, and Public Support for Government Spending

This article analyzes the relationship between political trust, ideology, and public support for government spending. We argue that the political trust heuristic is activated when individuals are asked to sacrifice ideological as well as material interests. Aggregate- and individual-level analysis shows that the effects of political trust on support for government spending are moderated by ideology. Consistent with the unbalanced ideological costs imposed by requests for increased government spending, we find that the effects of political trust are significantly more pronounced among conservatives than among liberals. The analysis further demonstrates that ideology conditions the effects of political trust on attitudes toward both distributive and redistributive spending. Our findings suggest that political trust has policy consequences across a much broader range of policy issues than previously thought.     

Trust in government increased during the Covid-19 pandemic in Australia and New Zealand

Using an online panel, we surveyed a representative sample of 500 each in Australia and New Zealand during July 2020, in the middle of the Covid-19 pandemic. We find trust in government has increased dramatically, with around 80% of respondents agreeing government was generally trustworthy. Around three quarters agreed management of the pandemic had increased their trust in government. Over 85% of respondents have confidence that public health scientists work in the public interest. Testing four hypotheses, we find that income and education predict trust in government and confidence in public health scientists, as does voting for the political party in government. Trust in government and confidence in public health scientists strongly predict Covid-19 phone application use, largely through convincing people the App is beneficial. Trust in government then is both an outcome and antecedent of government effectiveness. Building trust is important for governments implementing difficult policy responses during a crisis.     

Rejecting representation? Party systems and popular support for referendums in Europe

Under what conditions do citizens favor deciding political issues by popular vote? Models of support for popular vote processes usually consider the influence of individual attitudes such as political trust and interest in politics. But much less is known about the effect of institutional variables on support for popular vote processes. This article builds on research showing that disaffection with elected officials shapes support for referendums by considering the influence of the party system. First, an analysis of multilevel data from twenty-four European democracies indicates that individuals are more supportive of referendums in countries with fewer effective political parties. Second, a mediation analysis provides evidence that the number of parties influences referendum support through individual-level political trust and external efficacy. Where there are fewer viable parties, feelings that elected officials are unresponsive tend to increase popular support for referendums. These findings suggest a trade-off between available representation by political parties and support for direct influence over public policy.     

The relationship between political attitudes and political participation: Evidence from monozygotic twins in the United States,Sweden, Germany,and Denmark

Many studies have shown that political efficacy, interest in politics, and political knowledge are strongly related to political participation. In most analyses, these variables are described as having a causal effect on participation. In this paper, we examine the extent to which the relationship between political attitudes and participation is confounded by familial factors. By using the discordant twin design, which relates within-pair differences in political attitudes to within-pair differences in political participation, we are able to examine the relationship net of confounding factors rooted in genes and the early rearing environment. Using four samples of monozygotic twins from the United States, Sweden, Germany, and Denmark, we find that the relationship between political attitudes and political participation is confounded to a large extent. This study makes an important contribution to the literature on political attitudes and political participation given the longstanding idea that attitudes cause political participation. Our findings also have practical implications for those interested in elevating levels of political participation. In addition, they have important implications for how scholars theorize about, model, and examine political participation in the future.     

Attitudes,behaviors, and the influence of the family: A reexamination of the role of family structure

Political socialization researchers have long declared the importance of the family to the socialization of young people. But political science has not kept pace with the dramatic changes in family over the last 25 years. Where, in the past, family was generally a two-parent family, today more than 25 percent of the families with children under 18 are single-parent families. This research seeks to reexamine the traditional assumptions about how family structure influences socialization by testing the hypothesis that young adults raised in single-parent families experience different patterns of political socialization than those raised in two-parent families. However, the data provide no support for this hypothesis. There is no relationship between family structure and political efficacy, political knowledge, or political participation, and only a weak one between structure and political trust.     

Citizens' Attitudes Towards Municipal Mergers – Individual-level Explanations

Municipal mergers are one of the most common reforms of jurisdiction size. While there are many studies of municipal mergers at the contextual level and some about how mergers affect opinions, studies of how individual citizens regard prospective mergers are still scarce. Thus, we study why citizens have different opinions on prospective mergers that are yet to be decided on. Specifically, the factors of main interest in this study are political efficacy and political trust since these relate to how citizens make sense of the complex and uncertain reforms that municipal mergers are. To study this, we disseminated a population survey (N = 6,686) in the Finnish municipality of Korsholm in 2018. At that time, a merger was planned with the neighboring city of Vaasa. This merger was surrounded by a very heated debate, mainly due to the fact that the merger would have affected the position of language minorities (a very salient issue in bilingual Finland) whereby the Swedish-speaking majority in Korsholm would become a minority in a merged new municipality. Using regression analyses where internal- and external political efficacy and political trust are tested as predictors of opinions on this proposed merger, with control for demographic, socio-economic and social factors, the study demonstrates that external efficacy and political trust have independent significant impact on citizens' opinions on mergers. The findings also show that salient issues connected to mergers are important factors as are social factors.     

Disinterest,disaffection, and participation in presidential politics

Undue emphasis on the decline of voter turnout in national elections and its interpretation as indicative of political malaise are likely to make for erroneous understanding of the American democracy. Evidence from studies of the national electorate conducted between 1952 and 1978 shows that the explanation for declining turnout is not to be found in commensurate diminution in political interest or involvement, or in a decreasing sense of civic duty, feeling of political efficacy or trust in government. Where patterns of change have coincided, further analysis indicates an absence of possible cause-and-effect relationships. The decline has been chiefly limited to those population sectors characterized by lack of interest or involvement in national partisan politics. The article concludes with a projection of likely developments in political participation, including turnout, in future presidential elections.An earlier version of this paper was presented to the Conference on National Elections 1980: Continuity and Change in American Politics, Washington University, St. Louis, May 1980.     

Political Information, Political Involvement, and Reliance on Ideology in Political Evaluation

Many studies have focused on the relationship between political information and the use of ideology. Here, we argue that two “evaluative motivations”—general investment of the self in politics and extremity of partisanship—serve as moderators of this relationship. Specifically, we use data from two recent national surveys to test whether the possession of information is more strongly associated with a tendency to approach politics in an ideological fashion among individuals high in both types of evaluative motivation. Results supported this hypothesis, revealing that information was more strongly associated with ideological constraint and with a tendency to give polarized evaluations of conservatives and liberals among those who highly invest the self in politics and those with more extreme partisanship. As such, this study suggests that information and involvement interact to shape the use of ideology.     

Accountability Expectations in an Intergovernmental Arena: The National Rural Development Partnership

This article explores the expectations and accountability relationshipspresent in an intergovernmental experiment known as the NationalRural Development Partnership (NRDP). As such, this study extendsearlier analyses of accountability dynamics beyond the boundsof a single agency into the organizationally less tidy realmof intergovernmental relations. This research focuses on theunique expectations and accountability dynamics facing participantsin the NRDP and identifies gaps between expectations at thecorporate (agency) and individual levels and between arenasin the intergovernmental system. These gaps complicate the accountabilitydynamics for NRDP participants and contribute to the challengesof operating within the rural development policy arena. TheNRDP is designed to emphasize the relationship between processesand substantive outcomes. It has developed a tendency to relyon professional and political accountability relationships thathave little to do with formal responsibilities.     

当代西方政府信任危机透析

民众对于政府的支持与信任是任何政权合法性的重要基础,也是任何政体正常运转的重要保障。20世纪末以来,西方民主国家中政府的公信力下降已经演化为一股国际性的趋势,成为各国政府面临的严峻问题。西方人民对政府的不信任是众多因素长期混合和交互作用的结果,包括政治选举、政府本身、利益集团、社会文化以及大众传媒等方面的原因。为了提高公民对政府的信心和满意度,巩固政权的正当性和合法性,西方国家采取了多样的手段,开始了塑造“公民性政府”的历程。我国在社会经济改革加速前进的过程中也伴生了一些严重影响政府信任的现象,在这方面,西方国家政府信任危机的内在症结及其解救的经验措施,对于我们提高政府公信力无疑具有重要的启示和借鉴意义。     

Education and support for representative,direct and stealth democracy

Using data collected within the scope of a Dutch internet panel survey (LISS) in 2011, this study tracks public support for direct, stealth and representative democracy according to educational level. Our findings indicate that, in terms of overall support for each specific type of democracy, lower educated citizens are significantly more supportive of stealth and direct democracy than highly educated citizens. While the mean levels of support for representative democracy do not differ significantly between levels of education, multivariate OLS regression analyses show that lower educated citizens are noticeably more supportive of representative democracy once political efficacy, trust and satisfaction are introduced. When contrasting the different types of democracy directly with one another, we find that lower educated citizens have a greater tendency to prefer direct and (to a lesser extent) stealth democracy over representative democracy than higher educated citizens. Multivariate OLS regression analyses indicate that most of these educational gaps cease to be significant once the lower levels of political efficacy, trust and satisfaction of lower educated citizens are taken into account. Implications of these results for the debate on the functioning of democracy are discussed.     

External influence on parliamentarians in Kenya

Many scholars argue that the media can influence parliamentarians though the extent of that influence is hotly debated. There is some evidence that the relationship is two way, with politicians taking note of salient media stories but using the media to communicate with their constituents. It is also apparent that, whilst the media may have a role in drawing attention to specific issues, politicians in Kenya do not entirely trust it and thus use a wide range of other sources including government agencies as well as third party sources such as interest groups. This article addresses two gaps in our knowledge―the extent to which parliamentarians in Kenya turn to unofficial sources for information and public opinion, especially interest groups, and the extent to which the media in particular influences parliamentarians in Kenya. The results suggest that parliamentarians in Kenya rely to some extent on both the media and interest groups and that the media is good at raising awareness and stimulating action but that it has only a modest effect on political actions.     

Political brand experience and voting intention: Is there a relation?

The current study reveals that Indian voters' political brand experiences positively influence their engagement and trust in a political party. Voters' addiction to political parties mediates the relationship between their party engagement and voting intentions. Thus, political marketers should increase voters' party brand addiction for proper conversion of party engagement in the ballot box. Although voters' political brand trust directly influences their voting intentions, interestingly, their political brand addictions indirectly influence the relationship between brand trust and voting intentions. The findings advocate that political marketers should ensure positive political party experiences to ensure voters' engagement with the party. Positive party experiences increase voters' trust in the party further. Another critical input for political marketers is the role of political brand addiction, which the study findings corroborate. Political brand addiction develops a set of loyal voters for a party and guarantees those voters' support for the party.