Terrorism and Politics: The Case of Northern Ireland's Loyalist Paramilitaries

This article reviews the history of the various political parties associated with the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) and the Ulster Defence Association (UDA): the two main loyalist or Protestant terrorist organizations in Northern Ireland. In the 1970s and 1980s, the UDA was more successful than the UVF in establishing a political presence, partly because it had the more distinct political philosophy and partly because its political leaders were able to distance themselves from the organization's terror campaign. However, since the ceasefires of 1994, fortunes have been reversed. The UVF's political party has been more successful; partly because it has managed to create the more distinct political position and partly because the new climate made close association with terrorism something of a political advantage.     

Irregular Warfare and Tactical Changes: The Case of Somali Piracy

The aim of this article is to analyze the tactical behavior of Somali pirates, international naval forces, and the shipping community operating in the Gulf of Aden and the Somali Basin. To what extent has tactical behavior changed over time and can this process be understood in more theoretical terms? Our theoretical framework centers around some concepts often used in naval doctrine, discussing tactical change in terms of command and control, force, mobility, protection, intelligence, and endurance. We also evaluate this change using two tactical concepts—tactical adaptation and tactical development. The empirical data is based on statistics from the International Criminal Court-International Maritime Bureau and the EU NAVFOR Operation Atalanta, as well as interviews. We conclude that Somali piracy has unquestionably adapted their tactics to circumstances, while naval forces have increased their capacity to capture pirates and shipping to avoid pirates.     

恐怖主义、全球化与中东——一个来自博弈论的解析

本文通过博弈论的框架分析了美国对阿富汗塔利班政权发动的战争。美军虽然在这场战争中进展顺利，但很难达到最初确定的抓获本·拉登等恐怖主义头目的目标。恐怖主义的全球化发展要求世界各国采取全球化的反恐怖措施，其中最重要的一条是和平、公正、合理地解决巴勒斯坦问题，从而消除恐怖主义滋生的根源。     

从俄新版《军事学说》看其军事理论的新变化

军事学说作为俄罗斯军事思想的集中体现,代表着俄最高当局最新的军事政策的动向。俄新版《军事学说》的出台,标志着俄军事理论发生了新的重大变化。从发展看,在短期内俄军事理论总体框架难有大的变化。     

Terrorism,violence against the public,and the media: The Australian approach

This paper examines the balance between the apparently competing objectives of government and the media in the general area of violence against the public and details the Australian model for handling issues associated with terrorism and the media. Australia's counterterrorism strategy may be considered holistic, going beyond the idea of a comprehensive capability for response to an actual public incident to include preventive measures and enhancement of the national security environment, suggesting that all elements of the society, including the media, regard security as a cooperative endeavor. These elements have been developed in the “National Anti‐Terrorist Plan” (NATP), developed by Australia's Standing Advisory Committee on Commonwealth/State Cooperation for Prevention against Violence (SAC‐PAV). For the past several years, the SAC‐PAV has been developing a basic strategic guide to provide structure for its many activities, and the committee has agreed that the NATP requires a fourfold strategy for dealing with the media: (1) public communication policies and guidelines, (2) incorporating media response and incident management strategies, (3) media training, and (4) physical controls. In addition, the SAC‐PAV has formulated a set of guidelines for the media to apply when covering terrorist incidents, indicating clearly what crisis managers and counterterrorism response organizations expect of media handling of public crises.     

The Homegrown Threat: State Strength,Grievance, and Domestic Terrorism

Scholars maintain that, similar to insurgency, terrorist violence is precipitated by both relative deprivation and state weakness. Yet aggrieved minority groups within a country should turn to terrorism when they are weak relative to the state rather than strong. Empirical evidence shows minority group discrimination and fragile political institutions to independently increase domestic terror attacks. But it remains unclear whether grievances drive domestic terrorism in both strong and weak states. Using data from 172 countries between 1998 and 2007, we find that for strong states the presence of minority discrimination leads to increased domestic terrorism, while for weak states the presence of minority discrimination actually leads to less domestic terrorism. Consequently, increasing state capacity may not be a panacea for antistate violence, as nonstate actors may simply change their strategy from insurgency or guerrilla warfare to terrorism. Efforts to reduce terrorist violence must focus on reducing grievance by eliminating discriminatory policies at the same time that measures to improve state capacity are enacted.     

Terrorism and the media: Problems,solutions, and counterproblems

This article is divided into two main parts. The first part frames the problem of “terrorism and the media” in terms of a complex interaction involving three kinds of relationships. The first is the relationship between terrorists and governments; the second is the relationship between terrorists and the media; and the third is the relationship between government and the media. The second part examines the specific roles of the media in covering terrorism and the impact of such coverage. Four kinds of solutions to the problems deriving from this impact are examined in turn: the use of media guidelines, the use of legislation and legal sanctions, media‐government cooperation, and training and education. Finally, the practicality of these solutions is examined by highlighting the kinds of problems or “counterproblems” that are inherent in each solution.     

Nuclear Terrorism Redux: Conventionalists, Skeptics, and the Margin of Safety

The casual media observer might well believe that nuclear terrorism is highly likely in the United States and it is a question of “when, not if.” This is the view of the “conventionalists.” But there is a second school, the “skeptics,” that believes the nuclear world is more secure than at any time in history and that the possibility of a nuclear terrorist event is overstated. This article articulates arguments made by these two schools of thought and develops a framework for analyzing the issue. It concludes that while enhanced national and international vigilance against nuclear terrorism is necessary, when viewed through an historical lens, today's margin of nuclear safety may actually be higher than in the past.     

The Four Horsemen of Terrorism: It's Not Waves,It's Strains

David Rapoport's concept of Four Waves of terrorism, from Anarchist terrorism in the 1880s, through Nationalist and Marxist waves in the early and mid-twentieth century, to the present Religious Wave, is one of the most influential concepts in terrorism studies. However, this article argues that thinking about different types of terrorism as strains rather than waves better reflects both the empirical reality and the idea that terrorists learn from and emulate each other. Whereas the notion of waves suggests distinct iterations of terrorist violence driven by successive broad historical trends, the concept of strains and contagion emphasizes how terrorist groups draw on both contemporary and historical lessons in the development of their tactics, strategies, and goals. The authors identify four distinct strains in total—Socialist, Nationalist, Religious, and Exclusionist—and contend that it is possible to trace each strain back to a “patient zero” active in the 1850s.     

China, Nuclear Security and Terrorism: Implications for the United States

This article outlines Chinese strategic nuclear forces and the Chinese philosophical approach to nuclear security. It then focuses on the domestic conditions in China which could precipitate vulnerabilities to its nuclear forces. From information about internal security conditions in China, specific internal threats to Chinese nuclear security will be derived. Based on these threats, several outsider and insider scenarios will be outlined involving a variety of terrorist or terrorist related behaviors. These notional scenarios will include everything from overrun or attack, to diversion, to cyber terrorism, to sabotage. The article will then cover what these scenarios and the possible Chinese reaction to them may mean for the security, military and diplomatic strategies of the United States.     

Landpower,Time, and Terrorism: A Strategy of Lightness in the Counter-ISIS Campaign

The range of strategic ends and contingencies that could require seizing, securing, and controlling territory on land is not diminishing. But the means of employing landpower have repeatedly exhausted the domestic basis and political will to sustain it over time, as in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. A way of applying landpower that allows for the essential element of time, sustainable over protracted periods in the court of public opinion, would offer immeasurable strategic value. Drawing on the author's work and observations while deployed to the U.S./coalition headquarters in command of military operations against ISIS, this article suggests that the answer to the dilemma of landpower, however preliminary, lies at the nexus of strategy and cost.     

美国海外军事基地部署的四个维度——以大中东地区为例

鉴于美国是世界强国中唯一处于西半球的国家,且对大中东地区的能源依赖度逐年下降,所以美国理应减少对该地区的军事部署。但是,长期以来,美国在大中东不仅军事基地规模最大,而且驻军人数最多。为解释这一现象,本文以大中东地区为例,从战略层面、军事层面、政治层面和利益层面四个维度出发,考察美国海外军事基地部署的动因。研究发现,将敌人遏制在战区范围内是美国海外军事部署的隐性逻辑。通过在盟国土地上部署军事基地,美国不仅可以对各区域分而治之,而且成为利益攸关方和议题设置者。美国在大中东地区部署军事基地,承载着谋求地区领导权、增强军事投射能力、巩固军事联盟体系和维护现实利益等多重功能。尽管特朗普政府对大中东地区事务缺乏干预的热心,但是对于实力衰落的美国来说,海外军事基地的政治象征意义与军事作战意义同等重要,美国在大中东地区的军事基地将继续发挥传统军事功能和非传统政治与外交功能。     

非洲艾滋病蔓延的社会原因——乌干达、肯尼亚个案分析

近年来，艾滋病在非洲大陆流行快、危害大。究其社会原因主要有以下几方面的因素普遍的贫困，传统的社会习俗，妇女的屈从地位，宗教的负面影响。本文以肯尼亚和乌干达为个案，对此进行分析。     

反恐对印度尼西亚政治经济与对外关系的影响

“9·11”事件后,美国经过阿富汗战争,打垮了“基地”组织。然而国际恐怖活动并未减少,反而呈扩大和蔓延之势。在印尼和菲律宾相继发生恐怖爆炸案之后,东南亚国家成为恐怖活动的危险地区。“9·11”事件后美国展开的全球反恐怖主义行动对许多国家的国内政治经济与外交取向带来了深远的影响。被视为美国反恐行动第二战场的东南亚国家在这方面显然并不例外,其中对印度尼西亚的冲击尤为重大。本文主要分析反恐行动对印度尼西亚的对外关系与国内经济、政治的影响。—、印度尼西亚的反恐立场在反恐问题上,刚开始印度尼西亚政府的反恐措施不力,直…