Why Counter-terrorism Breeds Yet More Terrorism

The global campaign against terror has achieved considerable success over the past five years since the events of 9/11. The Taliban forces in Afghanistan have been destroyed and Al-Qeda has received a devastating blow. In Russia, Chechen secessionist terrorist forces have also suffered heavy losses. Nevertheless, the major terrorist attacks that took place in the UK, Spain, Russia, Iraq, India and Indonesia clearly demonstrate that terrorism has not yet disappeared.Terrorist attacks are on the increase, the targets are becoming more varied, and the methods more covert and more violent. Terrorist groups and organizations have become better organized in their activities and there is a trend towards the use of high-tech in the attacks.Some world public media refers to these phenomena as "counter-terrorism leading to yet more terrorism". Therefore, two fundamental questions may be posed to all countries throughout the world: What are the roots of terrorism? How can terrorism be eradicated?     

"越反越恐",原因何在?

“9·11事件”是冷战结束后最具标志性的事件。值此“9·11”五周年之际,《现代国际关系》编辑部举办了“‘9·11’以来国际形势变化与中国外交”专题研讨会,邀请在京二十余位国际问题专家就五年来的国际形势变化、反恐形势、当前国际体系中的深层矛盾、大国关系的调整、国际格局的演变趋势、美国反恐的得与失、美国国际地位及实力的升与降、中国国际地位与国际战略等问题进行了深入分析和探讨。现将与会专家学者的主要观点辑录刊发,以期对读者把握国际战略形势及理解中国对外战略有所裨益。     

人民币是否升值不仅是经济问题也是政治和社会问题

汇率问题从来就不是纯粹的经济问题 ,也不是纯学术问题 ,至少在国际政治经济学领域一直是一个争论不休的问题。日美等国热衷于鼓动人民币升值不仅是要在近期限制中国出口的增长 ,从长期看还企图拖跨中国经济 ,让中国重蹈日本1990年代以来经济衰退的覆辙。因此 ,我们应引起足够的重视     

Nothing Is True,Everything Is Permitted: Premodern Religious Terrorism

Abstract

In the beginning faith was the alpha and omega of revolutionary dreams and terrorist actions. This article will examine case studies among the Peoples of the Book—Judaism, Christianity, and Islam—for religious terrorism is not the product of one faith. It argues that the cultural resonance of each movement examined offers a blank slate on which contemporary seekers, dreamers, and fighters may write. The title, borrowed from a popular novel, is the leitmotif of this form of violence. By all objective forms of analysis, the movements chronicled in these pages are a parade of seemingly stupid ideas held by idealists, fools, and fanatics who dreamed that, with God at their side, they could bring perfection to a fallen world. In such a cause, antinomian violence is inevitable and genocide its logical outcome. Yet these early movements are not to be despised, for together it was they, not the huddled masses cowering before the powers that be, that created the modern world.     

The Myth of Media Globalization: Why Global Media Is Not Truly Globalized,by Kai Hafez

Political discussion is often seen as a potential shortcut to enlightened voting. If uninformed individuals receive useful information from their discussion partners, then they can make quality decisions at the ballot box without incurring the costs of becoming informed. Discussion partners, however, have biases and these biases are reflected in what they say about candidates. If individuals accept messages from sources with different preferences, they could end up supporting candidates who benefit their discussion partners instead of themselves. This article argues that egos will often accept messages from individuals with an incentive to mislead. Instead of evaluating the messenger, individuals evaluate the messages. When the messages are all in accord, individuals support the candidate suggested by the messages even if the messengers are all biased. This article presents the results of a group-based experiment in which ego networks were exogenously determined by the researcher. In the experiment, egos tend to vote for their party's candidate, but they defect with greater frequency when they receive messages from members of a different party. This willingness to listen to the other side has detrimental effects for the quality of their decisions.     

The Four Horsemen of Terrorism: It's Not Waves,It's Strains

David Rapoport's concept of Four Waves of terrorism, from Anarchist terrorism in the 1880s, through Nationalist and Marxist waves in the early and mid-twentieth century, to the present Religious Wave, is one of the most influential concepts in terrorism studies. However, this article argues that thinking about different types of terrorism as strains rather than waves better reflects both the empirical reality and the idea that terrorists learn from and emulate each other. Whereas the notion of waves suggests distinct iterations of terrorist violence driven by successive broad historical trends, the concept of strains and contagion emphasizes how terrorist groups draw on both contemporary and historical lessons in the development of their tactics, strategies, and goals. The authors identify four distinct strains in total—Socialist, Nationalist, Religious, and Exclusionist—and contend that it is possible to trace each strain back to a “patient zero” active in the 1850s.     

美国为何敌视委内瑞拉

20 0 1年 1月 2 0日 ,布什登上美国总统的宝座。布什上台后多次声称重视发展同拉美国家的关系 ,进一步加强对美国“后院”的控制。在美拉关系中 ,委内瑞拉占据重要地位。这不仅因为委内瑞拉是距美国最近的南美国家 ,地理位置重要 ;更重要的是 ,委内瑞拉是美国石油的第 2大供应国 (仅次于沙特阿拉伯 ) ,与美国经济有密切联系。然而 ,在 2 0 0 1年美国发表的人权报告中 ,美国歪曲事实 ,污蔑委内瑞拉不尊重人权 ;在美国发表的《2 0 0 0年国别反毒评估报告》中 ,美国还粗暴干涉委内瑞拉内政。布什政府为什么对委内瑞拉采取敌视态度 ?笔者认为有…     

印度缘何核军备动作频繁

进入 2 0 0 3年后 ,印度宣布组建核司令部 ,试射“烈火”Ⅰ型短程导弹 ,宣称将于年中试射射程超过3 0 0 0公里的“烈火”Ⅲ型中远程导弹。在核军备采购方面印度也动作频繁 ,与俄罗斯签订协议 ,准备购进“戈尔什科夫海军上将”号航空母舰 ,租用“阿库拉ＩＩ”型攻击核动力潜艇和“图 2 2Ｍ3”型战略轰炸机 ;与法国签订协议 ,将购进价值 2 0亿美元的潜艇和导弹。这一系列举动反映了印度的核战略考虑。核战略是印度大国战略的重要组成部分 ,提升战略核威慑力是其实现战略目标的既定步骤。印度一直笃信实力 ,尤其是以核威慑为重心的军事实力 ,认…     

金融危机背景下全球军费为何攀升

国际金融危机使全球经济出现整体衰退,但全球军费反而大幅攀升。造成这种局面的主要原因有:反恐战争促使一些国家力图通过军事手段来解决面临的棘手问题;国际社会仍未跳出根深蒂固的安全困境思维;和平红利充实了可以付账的钱袋子;某些区域大国提升军事影响力导致周边国家竞相提高自身防御能力;各种新的威胁为扩张军备提供了借口。巨额军费开支必然导致军备竞赛加剧,分散各国在经济复苏方面的精力,从而影响世界经济回暖的进程。     

拉美国家的收入分配为什么如此不公

拉美是世界上收入分配最不公平的地区。具体表现在基尼系数上,拉美的基尼系数是世界上最高的:拉美国家的基尼系数虽然在70年代显著下降,但80年代又开始上升,90年代的下降幅度不大。笔者认为,拉美国家收入分配严重不公的原因是多方面的:历史上遗留下来的大地产制,其土改并未从根本上改善农村的收入分配结构;自然禀赋和地理位置与收入分配密切相关。笔者同时认为,导致收入分配不公的其他原因包括:拉美国家的工业化模式具有自然资源密集型和技术密集型的特点,城乡差别难以缩小,税收制度不合理,宏观经济不稳定,金融市场不健全,受教育的机会不均。     

大连凭什么让达沃斯论坛“流连”

世界经济论坛第三届新领军者年会（2009年达沃斯论坛夏季年会）9月10日在中国大连举行。至此，达沃斯论坛夏季年会两次选择了中国的大连。人们不禁要问，大连凭什么让达沃斯论坛“流连”？     

为什么没有中国的国际关系理论?

本文对中国国际关系研究中存在的问题进行了进一步的反思,认为机构中稳定的职业国际关系学者的匮乏,研究中科学与实证精神的忽视,问题意识的缺失,是中国国际关系研究发展的障碍所在。文章最后建议,中国国际关系研究应该坚持人文与科学两条研究方向,赋予国际关系研究以更多的政治哲学与科学含义。     

委内瑞拉政局为何再次动荡

委内瑞拉粉碎“四一二”政变 8个月后 ,政局再次发生动荡。从国内来说 ,反查派倒查之心不死 ,梦想恢复传统政党的统治。他们利用手中的媒体进行反查宣传 ,使用掌握的警察力量镇压拥查派群众 ,勾结军队内部的反查分子阴谋再次发动政变。经济的严重衰退则使部分群众产生不满情绪 ,倒向反查阵营。从国际来说 ,美国实行敌视查韦斯政权的政策 ,对委内瑞拉政局恶化起了推波助澜的作用。由于查韦斯采取了不少应急和应变措施 ,而且他还拥有广泛的群众基础 ,仍然得到军方和国际社会的支持 ,因此查韦斯不会轻易倒台。     

Terrorism and the media

The linguistic turn in political science is an important step toward more sophisticated political knowledge. Greater awareness of political language implies attention to words such as reason. Reason is central to modern political discourse because of its historical and cultural importance and because of the contemporary dominance of the rational choice paradigm. Reason the concept therefore justifies closer scrutiny of reason the word. The meaning of reason is constructed as a variable. Standing by itself, reason seems relatively shapeless and empty; dictionary definitions are circular and tautological, although some subtle nuances derive from the network of reason's root words. Most of the variance in the meaning of reason is determined by other words that surround it, with a significant portion of reason's meaning being defined by its context. Anterior meaning shifters, nominal referents, spatiotemporal modifiers, and textual narrative all surround reason and fix it in a large lattice. The meaning of reason in use varies continuously. From this perspective, it becomes clear how reason functions as an important rhetorical trope in political discourse. Its plasticity and flexibility help reason stimulate and evoke variable mental images and responses in different settings and situations, all the more important because these go largely unnoticed. The example of reason of state shows reason's rhetorical power and privilege, its normative dimension, its persuasiveness, and its consequences. Seen in this light, a weak version of reason of state is preferable to a strong one. Pluralistic reason opens new paths for democratic thought and political action.     

欧盟对华军售难以解禁的背景综述

2003年秋天起,欧盟能否解除持续了近15年的对华军售禁令问题进入人们的视野,并逐渐成为舆论关注的一个焦点。法国和德国认为该禁令早就该解除,美国和日本等国则强烈反对。2004年11月17日,欧洲议会以中国人权问题为由,通过决议要求欧盟继续维持对华武器禁运。①这个决议虽没有实际约束力,却反映出一部分欧洲人在该问题上的心态。同年12月8日举行的中欧峰会上,欧盟宣布将于2005年6月给出一个明确解决方案,欧盟正式启动了对华军售解禁的程序。但在随后的发展中,欧盟这一立场却多次动摇。现在看来,解禁的日期将可能继续后延。一、美国出于战略考…