Regime Critics: Democratization Advocates in Vietnam, 1990s–2014

ABSTRACT:?

Beginning in the mid 1990s, public criticism of the Communist Party government in Vietnam spread to the point that by 2014 it had become a prominent feature of the country's political scene. This article emphasizes critics who want to replace, nonviolently, the present regime with a democratic political system. Drawing primarily on the writings and actions of Vietnamese critics themselves, the analysis shows that they differ over how to displace the current system. Some regime critics think the Communist Party leadership itself can and should lead the way; others form organizations to openly and directly challenge the regime; still others urge remaking the current system by actively engaging it; and some favor expanding civil society in order to democratize the nation. Underlying the four approaches are different understandings of what democratization entails and how it relates to social and economic development.     

Testing for sources of electoral competition under authoritarianism: an analysis of Russia’s gubernatorial elections

What drives electoral competition in competitive authoritarian regimes? Most scholarship has assumed that the outcome of these elections is decided by regime manipulation alone. Using three rounds of newly reinstated gubernatorial elections in Russia’s regions, I test this assumption. I identify three distinct measures of competition calibrated to authoritarian elections and assess whether voter preferences or regime manipulation best explain the degree of electoral competition. Relying on new data on protests across Russia’s regions, I find that regions with high protest activity have more contested elections with narrower margins of victory. The results also confirm recent scholarship highlighting the importance of voter turnout for delivering pro-regime victories.     

Do Provincial Governors Control National Legislators? Quasi-Experimental Evidence of Argentine Federalism

Do governors control the behaviour of legislators from their provinces and parties in the national congress? The aim of the article is to test gubernatorial subnational political influence on national legislators. I first discuss the problems of the logic behind empirical exercises that measure the legislative influence of governors. Then the study tests gubernatorial influence using quasi-experimental evidence from Argentina, a federalism that bears all the hallmarks for governors to be central actors in the legislative arena. The results support the hypothesis that governors influence the behaviour of legislators from their provinces and parties in the national congress.     

Invisible and slow: small business and the “civic-ness” of Russia's regions, 1991–2009

This article suggests that incremental small business development across Russia's regions has been associated with greater “civic-ness” as defined by civil society activism, diversity, and independence of regional press and media, greater transparency in regional and municipal policy deliberations, and greater dispersion of power among governors, mayors, legislatures, and courts. A retrospective analysis of regional variation over the period 1991–2009 allows for a theoretically informed inquiry into the mutuality of property rights, entrepreneurship, norms of citizenship, and liberal democracy. While Russia has become more authoritarian at least since the mid 2000s, the variation in governance across regions remained significant, creating a promising basis for exploring the reasons for this variation. Might democratization viewed comparatively across regions be associated with the extent of liberalization of regional economies and specifically with the extent of small business development?     

The electoral logic of governor rotations in Ukraine: rulers’ authority,party strength,and regional polarization

How and under what conditions do authoritarian rulers use the state apparatus to help ensure victory? To answer this question, this paper examines electoral mobilization as a rationale for the appointment of governors in hybrid regimes. Given their absolute authority to use administrative resources, autocratic rulers prefer governors who can perform well in mobilizing the electorate in their favor. However, several circumstances make this strategy suboptimal or impossible. To provide empirical evidence supporting this argument, this study conducts a survival analysis using an original dataset of gubernatorial appointments and dismissals in Ukraine from 1996 to 2017. The results confirm that electoral performance was the primary driver of governor appointments during the presidency of Leonid Kuchma. In addition, it is demonstrated that various institutional conditions, such as party strength, the weak authority of the ruler within the central government, and regional polarization resulted in the adoption of different appointment strategies by subsequent presidents.     

Forward to democracy or back to authoritarianism? The attitudinal bases of mass support for the Russian election protests of 2011–2012

Two UK-based political scientists present the results of an original survey they conducted in Russia soon after the presidential elections of 2012. The survey examines the interaction between mass attitudes toward the causal triggers of protest during the 2011–2012 electoral cycle and underlying political attitudes regarding the preferred alternatives to a hybrid regime (both more democratic and more authoritarian). They find that supporters of the protests were not stronger advocates of a democratic transition; on the contrary, they were more likely to support authoritarian leadership and ethno-nationalism. This finding leads to a discussion of whether one of the major constraints on elite-mass mobilization in Russia is the authoritarian direction such mobilization might entail.     

The Impossibility of Party Unity in Peru: Party Affiliation,Subnational Electoral Competition and Party Discipline (2011–2019)

Party division in Peru is a constant event and has become an expected feature of Peruvian parliamentary politics. For instance, in 2016, the elected Congress was composed of six parliamentary groups, and at the moment of its dissolution, that number doubled. This article explores the factors that produce such rapid division in the Peruvian Congress during two parliamentary periods (2011–2016, 2016–2019). It argues, through quantitative analysis, that there is a direct and negative relationship between the fragmentation of parliamentary groups and party discipline due to party affiliation and the dynamics of subnational party competition.     

Understanding Russia’s energy turn to China: domestic narratives and national identity priorities

This study investigates whether, as part of a broader “Asian Energy Pivot,” Russia’s energy giant Gazprom refashioned its export strategy away from Europe, and what impact such a reorientation might have on the EU–Russia gas relationship. It uses four empirical cases to emphasize the domestic movers underlying Russia’s eastward shift in energy trade, developing a constructivist theory rooted in the dynamics of Russia’s dominant public narrative and the contours of domestic politics. It argues that Russia’s national interests changed as a result of how Russian policy-makers interpreted and reacted to the stand-off with Europe, in response to what they perceived as Europe’s attempt to isolate it economically and geopolitically. Russia’s Eurasianists, who had advocated the notion of a necessary turn to the East for a long time, positioned themselves as norm entrepreneurs and their new interpretation of the preexisting material incentives shaped the future course of action.     

Northern theories,Southern movements? Contentious politics in Africa through the lens of social movement theory

ABSTRACT

The article examines the extent to, and the conditions under which theoretical approaches from Social Movement Studies, mainly developed based on empirical experiences from the Global North, are appropriate for analysing contentious politics in the South, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. In order to answer this question, the article discusses whether social movements in Africa differ fundamentally from those in other world regions. Four main approaches from social movement theory are examined: resource mobilisation, political opportunity structures, framing, and collective identity, to find out how suitable they are for explaining empirical phenomena in Africa. It is argued that social movements in Africa are not principally different from those in other world regions. Approaches from social movement theory prove helpful in explaining phenomena in the South, although they suffer from the same weaknesses and limitations to their scope as they do regarding movements in the North.     

Soft competitive authoritarianism and negative stability in Kosovo: statebuilding from UNMIK to EULEX and beyond

ABSTRACT

After 1999, democratization, normalization and Europeanization were the key processes through which Kosovo’s final political status was expected to take shape. All three processes, however, were guided by the stability paradigm. Though Kosovo cannot be categorized as a typical authoritarian state, its political leaders have openly displayed illiberal tendencies, governing in an unaccountable manner and utilizing public assets for their private gain. In the period from 1999 to 2008, while UNMIK’s approach was based on maintaining stability instead of democratization, a soft competitive authoritarianism began to emerge incrementally. In its first decade of independence, Kosovo’s statehood remained internationally disputed, whereas its governance culture was characterized by a lack of internal accountability, which is a key component of the soft competitive authoritarianism in the country. Thus, the negative trajectory of political developments did not change even after the deployment of EULEX and the 2008 declaration of independence. This article analyses the development of authoritarian and illiberal tendencies in Kosovo and suggests that the democratization and Europeanization discourses served to conceal soft competitive authoritarian practices in Kosovo.     

Compromising coalitions and duplicitous diplomacy: US support for Tajikistan after 9/11 and its security implications

This article investigates the development of democracy in Tajikistan and analyzes what has earned it the most international acclaim: its secular-Islamic governing coalition. The investigation reveals a compromised and illegitimate coalition that, with American collusion in local regime repression, poses great dangers to international security. The article argues that government repression, leading to increasing radicalization, combines with foreign aid to damage long-term democracy potential in Tajikistan but also works against global security interests by creating doubt about American intentions and possibly allowing a concomitant rise in Islamic radicalism.