后西方世界秩序下的核武器与核威慑

全球国际社会正处于一个关键的变化时期。长期以来占主导地位的西方秩序在如下几个方面面临包围:霸权分散、全球资本主义危机日益加重、全球共同面临恐怖主义、大规模移民以及环境变化等带来的各种威胁。英国脱欧、特朗普当选美国总统这些事件表明,作为世界秩序核心的英语世界,已失去其主导力量。目前的发展格局将朝着多元化的后西方世界秩序发展。在此秩序下,没有超级大国,只有大国,并且这些大国大多比较自我封闭,因此,并不存在真正意义上的争夺全球霸权的现象。文化差异将比意识形态差异更为重要。文章首先将这一秩序的轮廓做一大致勾勒,然后探讨这一秩序对未来几十年核武器与核威慑所要扮演的角色来说将意味着什么。最为关注的着眼点是,全球格局从全球层面向区域层面的转变以及复杂的核扩散与核威慑态势。     

数字鸿沟与国际关系知识霸权

霸权是国际关系的伴生物。农业社会霸权国家具有明显的军事强权特性,工业社会霸权国家具有明显的工业强权特性,信息社会霸权国家初步显形知识霸权的特性。数字鸿沟的浮现使得国际关系中的知识霸权凸现,成为发达国家获利、强国和称霸的利器,科学的认识和探讨知识霸权对当代国际关系的影响具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

Israel's Deterrence Strategy Revisited

During the 2001–2009 period when American foreign policy was internationally unpopular and perceived as unilateral, many states strengthened their security cooperation with the United States and facilitated the reach of the us military. This behavior spans a range of actions along a spectrum from reaffirming traditional alliances to far more subtle forms of alignment. This pattern is in large part driven by the actions of regional powers such as Russia and China whose rising power pushes neighboring states to seek the assurance of the United States, and it has distinct implications for the endurance of American hegemony. As those regional powers seek to expand their influence, secondary states may increase their contributions to the maintenance of American hegemony, thus helping to extend it well into the future. They are less prone to do so, however, if the United States follows a strategy of restraint that calls into question its willingness to defend its hegemony. Therefore, a policy focused on maintaining American military preeminence and the demonstrated willingness to use it may be what sustains the cooperation from second-tier states that helps to maintain American hegemony.     

Balance of Power Politics and the Rise of China: Accommodation and Balancing in East Asia

Realists agree that great powers balance the military power of rising powers, but there is little agreement regarding secondary-state responses to rising powers. First, there are differences regarding whether secondary states balance or accommodate rising powers. Second, there are differences among realists regarding the distinct roles of economic and military factors in secondary-state alignment policies. Third, some scholars argue that state alignments are not necessarily determined by realist variables, but can reflect preferences shaped by intentions, historical experiences, or cultural influences. This paper addresses these issues in balance-of-power theory. Its empirical focus is the impact of the rise of China on secondary-state alignments in East Asia. After examining the complex mix of China's military and economic reach in East Asia, it concludes that secondary-state behavior is sensitive to local variation in the great power capabilities and that secondary states tend to accommodate rather than balance rising powers. It further concludes that economic capabilities alone are insufficient to generate accommodation, so that the political-economy literature should reexamine cases of apparent secondary-state accommodation to economic dependency, sensitive to the presence of military vulnerability on the part these secondary states to proximate great powers. These conclusions suggest that there is nothing sui generis or culturally-determined in East Asian international politics and that realism can explain alignment behavior among East Asian states as well as it does among European states. Research on East Asia's response to China's rise that is sensitive to intra-regional variations in U.S. and Chinese military and economic capabilities also challenges assumptions of an emerging Chinese regional hegemony or of a costly region-wide U.S.-China competition.     

太空安全秩序构建中的体系压力与战略指向

在当前“一超多强”的国际体系中,美国加大太空威慑不仅直接给对手带来清晰的威胁,还导致国际太空安全日益滑向军备竞赛和安全困境。这种由美国追求太空霸权所导致的国际体系层面的变化又反过来塑造着当前太空安全关系,促使其他各国在体系压力下作出包含反威慑在内的复杂应对。除了来自国际体系层面的安全压力,各国的太空安全战略选择还受到太空力量功效、太空法规意识、战略协调、国家互动情势、政治过程等中介变量的影响。这些中介变量不但影响国家对太空安全的认知,而且一段时间内会导致国家间太空安全决策的效率竞争型社会化。不过,随着国际社会过程不断延伸发展,太空力量功效和太空法规意识增强使相关国家安全决策更为谨慎和规范。全球化曲折推进中的战略沟通和政策协调使国家间太空安全互动情势由进化冲突向进化合作转变。在各国保持战略审慎的前提下,太空力量的多元化有助于构建包容、普惠、和谐的新太空安全秩序。太空全球性实质引领的共同利益观念又将助推人类命运共同体的构建。     

The Great Financial Crisis Catalyzes Great Transformations and Adjustments

Under the shadow of the financial crisis, the year 2009 presented numerous signs that the world is polarizing in terms of power balances, strategic readjustments by the world powers, and relations between these world powers. Meanwhile, despite intense competition, new advances may be perceived in the peaceful and incremental evolution of the international system, in terms of mechanisms, concepts and the realignment of forces. The transformation of the world order and the acceleration of a systematic evolution will inevitably result in power vacuums and disorder. Together with the growing negative effects of the financial crisis, this will further complicate the international security situation. As an emerging center for this great transformation, Asia serves as a symbol of turbulence, realignment and uncertainty in the areas of international strategy and security. Interaction between China and the rest of the world is taking place across all sectors, at all levels, and with growing intensity, all amid great risks.     

The rise of “diminished multilateralism”: East Asian and European forum shopping in global governance

The article argues that the “principled multilateralism” of the immediate post-Cold War period is increasingly giving way to what may be called a “diminished multilateralism.” Newly emerging global and regional powers such as the BRICS states (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and other rising powers in the Global South are increasingly questioning the legitimacy of the existing international architecture which they regard as a vehicle of the USA and Western countries to conserve their international influence in an era of rapid change. In the process, international institutions have increasingly become arenas of power rivalries which take the form of contests over access and membership, decision-making rules and normative order. The result is an increasing paralysis of these institutions and their inability to solve global problems. One aspect of these institutional power struggles is “forum shopping.” The article shows that East Asia and Europe have both become active players in forum shopping. Three conditions facilitated forum shopping: major crises and external shocks; sentiments of frustrated entitlement in connection with exclusive and discriminatory international institutions, and extra- and intra-regional power shifts.     

Language Use in Postcolonial Zimbabwean Alternative Theatre Performance

Abstract

This paper deploys the sociolinguistic concepts of indexicality and language ideologies to examine Amakhosi Theatre Productions and Rooftop Promotions’ use of language and linguistic frames as a performance resistive strategy in the postcolonial Zimbabwean landscape. These concepts offer a framework to critically appraise the political, social, ideological and cultural meanings latent in language/s used in alternative theatre performances, which have the ability to influence and define identities and ideological structures. From this lens, colonial residual hegemony, dominance and cultural subjugation expressed through English and/or Shona are challenged and re-framed through code- switching, translanguaging and language mixing. From an interpretive approach, this paper shows that the creative linguistic methods employed by Amakhosi Theatre Productions and Rooftop Promotions to reject normative and metropolitan power enforced by English purists (Ndebele and Shona in the context of Zimbabwe) over means of communication. In essence, this paper provides deeper insights into syncretic linguistic forms, and culture vis-à-vis colonial residual domination, hegemony and cultural subjugation in postcolonial Zimbabwean alternative theatre.     

Countering Aggressive Rising Powers: A Clash of Strategic Cultures

The United States has to contend with rising powers ranging from the prc, which is already an economic and political great power and potentially a military threat, to Al Qaeda and the network of Islamist terror organizations, whose means to power remain limited but whose will to power and aggression are great. In the middle are states that already or may soon possess nuclear weapons. Each of these powers has its own “strategic culture” that affects its decision-making, and attention needs to be paid to how the strategic habits of today's rising and aggressive powers might intersect with U.S. strategy.     

The unipolar exit: beyond the Pax Americana

In this article I show that the unipolar era already is drawing to a close. Three main drivers explain the impending end of the Pax Americana. First, the rise of new great powers—especially China—is transforming the international system from unipolarity to multipolarity. Second, the United States is becoming the poster child for strategic over-extension, or as Paul Kennedy dubbed it, imperial overstretch. Third, the United States' relative economic power is declining, and mounting US fiscal problems and the dollar's increasingly problematic role as the international financial system's reserve currency are undermining US hegemony. After examining how these trends undermine the argument for ‘unipolar stability’, I conclude by arguing that over the next two decades the Pax Americana's end presages dramatic changes in international politics.     

论技术性级差空租与外空安全机制的成长

外层空间被誉为是继陆地、海洋、大气层之后人类生存和发展的第四环境。伴随着人类对外层空间探索、开发和利用，外层空间对主权国家的生存和发展具有多方面的意义。鉴于一个国家开发利用外空的能力，从某种程度上决定着它在国际政治斗争中的政治地位以及国际事务中的发言权，因此，外层空间的和平开发利用在当今国际政治中具有重要的战略意义。     

Ideological Polarity and Balancing in Great Power Politics

This article examines the international effects of a variable that has yet to be studied in a systematic manner in the international relations literature: the number of prominent, distinct ideological groups that are present in a particular system, which is a variable that I label “ideological polarity.” My basic argument is that systems in which the great powers are divided into one, two, or three or more ideological groups (or “ideological unipolarity,” “ideological bipolarity,” or “ideological multipolarity,” respectively) have very different dynamics, including major variations in overall threat perceptions among the great powers and the efficiency of the balancing process against perceived dangers. The effects of ideological polarity explain key outcomes that analyses based on power polarity cannot. I test the argument by examining great power relations in two cases: the decades after the Napoleonic Wars and the years leading up to the Second World War. Both periods were multipolar in terms of power but varied in terms of ideological polarity. The result was significant variations in states’ core security policies for reasons consistent with the argument.     

International Strategy and Security Environment Development Trends over the Next 5 to 10 Years

The world will continue to change radically over the next five to ten years. The current one superpower and many powers order will change to one of multi-polarity. Relations between major powers will take on a new shape. The rate of change will start to accelerate but these changes will continue to be peaceful and incremental. Competition will intensify over who will set the rules. Chaos,disorder,uncertainty and even turmoil will grow more apparent in the international security situation. This will make nat...     

Emerging powers and the responsibility to protect: non-linear norm dynamics in complex international society

The perceived clash of norms associated with the emergence of rising powers is nowhere more pronounced than in relation to the responsibility to protect (RtoP). However, attempts to explain rising powers’ engagement with norms such as the RtoP are often limited and limiting in what they can tell us. Orthodox models portray predominantly linear and diffusionist logics of norm evolution that underplay the complex interaction implicit in unpredictable outcomes at the systemic level. This article identifies a range of factors that drive participation (or generate hesitation) amongst emerging powers in the development and application of the RtoP. It proceeds to illustrate how changes in normative behaviour emanate from top-down and bottom-up processes as well as the feedback between them. It argues that norm evolution is consequently a unique and emergent outcome of complex international society and therefore argues for using complexity thinking as a heuristic to augment current models and explanations of the evolution of norms in the international system.     

日本谋求“战略自主”:举措、动因与制约（英文）

Japan is adopting the most independent and high-profile attitude toward the rest of the world since the end of World War II. Its pursuit of strategic independence will likely shape it into a major power in the international political arena. In addition to affecting Japan's own peace and prosperity, it will also change the future East Asian order.     

Toward the Year 2000

To adapt and renew today's fraying international order, the West must partner more closely with democratic rising powers that remain ambivalent about existing international arrangements. There are four such ‘global swing states’: Brazil, India, Indonesia and Turkey. An effective engagement strategy will need to adjust the order's main pillars to enhance their appeal without transforming the fundamental character of the system in the process. It will need to influence what global swing states want through outreach to publics and private sectors. And it will need to make the case that all four can best manage China's rise by strengthening international rules of the road. If the West can enlarge the circle of countries that uphold the global order to include these rising democracies, the system that has long safeguarded international security and prosperity and promoted human rights will be able to endure.     

Contestation and Transformation. Final Thoughts on the Liberal International Order

Abstract

The liberal international order, the inseparable mix of US geopolitical power and ideational project of organising international relations along normative frameworks such as internationalism, institutionalism and democracy, is reeling under the pressure of profound systemic changes such as greater interconnectedness and multipolarity. Predictions abound that increasing great power competition, most visibly at play in geographical areas of contested orders, will eventually tear it down. However, even if major actors – the US included – display a selective, irregular and often instrumental commitment to the liberal order, they are still repositioning themselves in that order and not outside of it. In addition, conflict is not the default outcome of order contestation, as hybrid forms of governance are possible even in troubled regions. No doubt, the world of tomorrow will be less American-shaped and less liberal, but transformation is a more plausible future than collapse for the liberal order.     

Diversity Management: Regionalism and the Future of the International Order

Abstract

The ongoing redistribution of power on the international stage points to a more decentred international system featuring a multiplication of governance arrangements. A larger range of pivotal countries have the capacity and the confidence to pursue different priorities, a development that questions the prevalent post-Cold War expectation that the liberal international order would grow both wider and deeper. The central challenge for the future of the international order is managing diversity in ways that minimise conflict and leverage the benefits of interdependence. The evolution of regionalism and regional orders will be a critical dimension of the realignment of power, interests and normative agendas at the global level. Both more competition and more cooperation are likely to take place at the regional level, with the mix changing in different parts of the world. Provided that it is not merely a cover for coercive hegemonic aspirations and that it is designed to complement other levels of cooperation, regionalism can play an important role in preventing a more polycentric world from becoming a more fragmented and unstable one.     

Global Governance Reform

President Barack Obama has trumpeted a ＂new era of engagement＂ for the United States. The central components of his strategy include a world order characterized by peaceful accommodation between established and rising powers; the collective management of transnational problems; and the overhaul of international institutions to reflect these shifting power dynamics and the new global agenda. Placing less emphasis than his predecessor on the pursuit of American primacy, Obama envisions--indeed, insists-that other global powers assume new responsibilities. Notwithstanding its multilateral instincts, though, the Obama administration is limited in its practical ability to promote and embrace sweeping reforms to global governance. Therefore, rather than casting its lot entirely with universal organizations like the United Nations, the United States will adopt a pragmatic approach to international cooperation that combines formal institutions with more flexible partnerships to achieve US national interests. The balance sheet for Obama＇s first year in office underscores both the opportunities for and the constraints on global governance reform in the current geopolitical environment.     

Emerging powers and the responsibility to protect: non-linear norm dynamics in complex international society

The perceived clash of norms associated with the emergence of rising powers is nowhere more pronounced than in relation to the responsibility to protect (RtoP). However, attempts to explain rising powers’ engagement with norms such as the RtoP are often limited and limiting in what they can tell us. Orthodox models portray predominantly linear and diffusionist logics of norm evolution that underplay the complex interaction implicit in unpredictable outcomes at the systemic level. This article identifies a range of factors that drive participation (or generate hesitation) amongst emerging powers in the development and application of the RtoP. It proceeds to illustrate how changes in normative behaviour emanate from top-down and bottom-up processes as well as the feedback between them. It argues that norm evolution is consequently a unique and emergent outcome of complex international society and therefore argues for using complexity thinking as a heuristic to augment current models and explanations of the evolution of norms in the international system.