The unipolar exit: beyond the Pax Americana

In this article I show that the unipolar era already is drawing to a close. Three main drivers explain the impending end of the Pax Americana. First, the rise of new great powers—especially China—is transforming the international system from unipolarity to multipolarity. Second, the United States is becoming the poster child for strategic over-extension, or as Paul Kennedy dubbed it, imperial overstretch. Third, the United States' relative economic power is declining, and mounting US fiscal problems and the dollar's increasingly problematic role as the international financial system's reserve currency are undermining US hegemony. After examining how these trends undermine the argument for ‘unipolar stability’, I conclude by arguing that over the next two decades the Pax Americana's end presages dramatic changes in international politics.     

The Financial Crisis and US Economic Hegemony

The US financial crisis and its result--a severe recession--are spreading quickly across the world. Why has the US, the head of the world economy, been hit so hard all of a sudden？ Or is the US economy indeed suffering so much？ What impact does the crisis have on the future of US economic hegemony？ Or will the crisis considerably weaken the comprehensive strength of the US and thus change its relations with all other countries in the world？ This essay analyses the economic situation of America from the perspectives of history and the angles of international politics, and pays special attention to the potential influence of the current crisis on the future of US economic hegemony and the international relations.     

集体行动的难题与制衡霸权

国际政治中的一个突出的现象是,对霸权国或霸权觊觎者的制衡常常是低效的,甚至以失败而告终。本文借助集体行动的理论,试图对这一现象加以解释。通过对中国战国时期六国抗秦战争、拿破仑战争以及冷战后国际关系的历史考察,文章指出,国家间的猜忌与不信任、公共物品本身的属性、个体理性与集体理性之间的张力等一系列集体行动本身所固有的困境,是造成反霸失败或低效的重要原因所在。     

单极称霸与多极反霸两种势力继续深化较量的一年--2004年国际政治形势回顾

2004年的国际政治关系总的形势是美国把反恐与称霸紧密结合,加紧实现其建立单极世界的图谋;多极化继续在曲折中深入发展;联合国内多边主义与单边主义的斗争持续不断.     

The Challenge to the Peace and Security in East Asia

Today, there are three major economic communities in the contemporary world: North America, Europe and East Asia, among which the East Asian economic community distinguishes itself as the most dynamic and energetic one. The peace and stability in this region are not only of vital importance to the national security and economic development of both China and Japan,     

The Challenge of Learning

This essay offers one attempt to apply insights from educational psychology to the teaching and learning of negotiation skills. First, we suggest a key reason why becoming an expert is challenging, namely, people's naïve theories about negotiation need to be challenged and largely put to rest. Second, we examine how professional schools typically teach negotiation. Third and finally, we offer suggestions for improving our negotiation pedagogy. To this end, we describe and review our research on analogical learning and how it can be used in classrooms to enhance learning.     

Preemption, Unilateralism, and Hegemony: The American Tradition?

Historian John Lewis Gaddis has found precedent for the current war on terror in early American history, arguing that the British burning of the capitol in 1814 had an impact on defense policy similar to the terrorist attacks of 9/11, leading to an emphasis on preemption. In basic respects, Gaddis restates the consensus among diplomatic historians that the early republic's foreign policy focused on preemption, unilateralism, and hegemony. But these depictions of early American diplomacy conflate separate eras and ignore an opposing tradition that was more moderate and principled. They are not without some truth, but their imperious sway in histories of our country needs to be checked and balanced.     

The Constituent Foundations of the Rally-Round-the-Flag Phenomenon

Despite the massive attention heaped on the rally-round-the-flag phenomenon by public opinion scholars, relatively little attention has been paid to its constituent elements. Yet, recent research has found that different groups of Americans respond differently to presidents' activities according to their interests and attentiveness. In this study, I disaggregate public opinion along two dimensions: political party and political sophistication. I argue that in responding to high-profile presidential activities abroad, different groups of Americans weigh various individual, contextual, and situational factors differently. I investigate all major U.S. uses of force between 1953 and 1998 and find that the propensity of different groups to rally does indeed vary according to individual and environmental circumstances. To explain these differences, I employ two models of public opinion. The first emphasizes the importance of threshold effects in explaining opinion change. That is, individuals who are closest to the point of ambivalence between approval and disapproval are most likely to change their opinion in response to external circumstances. The second emphasizes both the propensities of different types of individuals to be exposed to a given piece of information, and their susceptibility to having their opinion influenced by any additional information. My results offer a more nuanced picture of the nature and extent of the rally phenomenon than has been available in previous studies. My findings also hold important implications for other related scholarly debates, such as whether, and under what circumstances, the use of force can successfully divert public attention from a president's domestic political difficulties.     

霸权·制度·战略——读《霸权之翼:美国国际制度战略》

二战结束,特别是冷战结束以来,美国在世界权力结构的优势地位更加明显,美国霸权的神奇性色彩愈发突出.然而,对于美国霸权在世界政治转型中所出现的新变化,已有的霸权理论模式("霸权稳定论"、"霸权周期理论"、"霸权转移论"等)未能做出迅速而有效的解释,国际关系学界有必要对此而为之.中央党校国际战略研究所门洪华博士新近完成的<霸权之翼:美国国际制度战略>(以下简称<霸权之翼>)一书,[1]就是上述有益探索中的一种尝试.     

西方文化霸权与伊斯兰文化认同及其重构——评《西方霸权语境中的阿拉伯-伊斯兰问题研究》

虽然文化因素在国际关系中一直起着重要作用,但对国际关系学中的文化研究只是在20世纪90年代后才真正地在国内学界兴盛起来。1993年,塞缪尔·亨廷顿发表《文明的冲突》一文,论述了伊斯兰文明对以美国为首的西方文明的挑战。此文在世界范围内引起了广泛、深入和持久的论争,国内学者也发表了一系列论著和文章,或参与讨论,或加以批驳。一些学者透过“文明冲突论”敏锐地观察到,文化霸权正在构成当前国际关系领域中霸权政治和强权政治新的表现形式。“经济和政治军事力量强大的西方国家,运用文化强力来强制世界上的其他国家的国际行为,甚至国内…     

主权财富基金的兴起与美国金融霸权

主权财富基金在全球范围内的兴起正成为国际金融领域令人瞩目的重大事件。本文在简要分析该基金相关内容的基础上,着重探讨它与美国金融霸权之间的关系,包括其背后的美国因素、对美国金融霸权的影响以及美国的应对等。本文认为,主权财富基金的大规模出现是主权国家对美国过分推进金融自由化的一种必然反弹,是经济全球化遭遇的一种政治后冲。只要美国不停止其对金融霸权红利的过度享用,该基金就会对美国的金融霸权形成挑战,并越来越成为国际金融体系的重要组成部分。     

The Normative Bases of the Global Territorial Order

This article analyses states' support for international norms relating to the location of international boundaries. The key norms relate to the legitimacy of the international use of force, the placement of boundaries relative to previous international boundary accords, the views of populations, and broadly accepted ethical standards. These norms have become stronger over recent centuries, but their relative strength has varied. In comparing the influence of these norms in territorial disputes, this study aims to contribute to the understanding of international territorial politics and of the evolution of state sovereignty. Of particular note is that self-determination and human rights have achieved some modest but historically significant gains since the end of the Cold War.     

数字鸿沟与国际关系知识霸权

霸权是国际关系的伴生物。农业社会霸权国家具有明显的军事强权特性,工业社会霸权国家具有明显的工业强权特性,信息社会霸权国家初步显形知识霸权的特性。数字鸿沟的浮现使得国际关系中的知识霸权凸现,成为发达国家获利、强国和称霸的利器,科学的认识和探讨知识霸权对当代国际关系的影响具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

The Eurozone Crisis as a Challenge to Democracy and Integration in Europe

This article explores how both the sovereign debt crisis and the European Union's response illustrate fundamental characteristics of contemporary European integration. In the face of an unexpected emergency, national politicians took the lead and pressed ahead with more integration. The long-term results though depend on national acceptance of not just the bailout provisions but also enforcement of debt brakes mandated by the new EU treaty. This means democratic politics at the national level will continue to have a fundamental influence on EU affairs, while the North/South split will co-exist alongside a more marked separation between countries inside and outside the Eurozone. In this context of increased political turbulence within the EU, there is likely to be only a limited window of opportunity for successful negotiation of a free-trade deal with the United States.     

联合国改革的现实基础

联合国改革是指为了适应国际关系的变化和提高效率,而对联合国进行的机构性演变的过程。联合国自身发展的需要和国际关系的变化,是联合国改革的内外动因。"9.11"事件后,国际法律秩序的危机成了影响联合国改革进程的重要因素之一。     

The Challenge of Revolutionary Terrorism to Turkish Democracy 1960-80

After the dramatic failure of the socialist Turkish Labour Party in the election of 1969 many extremist left-wing ideologists seemed to regard terrorism as a legitimate method of achieving their objectives. Cayan, for instance, made it clear early in the 1970s that he considered that there was no alternative and that political power had to be obtained through the methods of armed violence. Although one of the main factors responsible for political violence was the autocratic state tradition and the rigid understanding about prevention of political terrorism and violence, the major political parties also failed to play a constructive role in protecting democracy in Turkey. The left in the period of 1960-80 claimed that parliamentary democracy in Turkey was a device to perpetuate social injustice and backwardness, allowing the upper classes to enrich themselves by maintaining semi-feudal relations in society while the right-wing groups considered that democracy had destroyed the traditional social order and its values, allowing the left the freedom to subvert and undermine the national integrity and character. In this framework, this article assumes that these bloody years in Turkey have many lessons for preventing revolutionary terrorism in a pluralistic environment.     

The Rockefeller and Gates Foundations in Global Health Governance

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) is the world's wealthiest philanthropic organisation and a major player in global health governance. While its emergence may be dramatic, BMGF's role in global health mirrors the experience of the Rockefeller Foundation's International Health Division nearly 100 years earlier. Both organisations provoked fear and consternation, but their supporters argued that both offered innovative techniques and filled niches governments could not or would not address. This article examines the parallels in arguments for and against the global health activities between the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Rockefeller Foundation. It also calls into question larger questions about the role of private actors in global governance and whether their activities in recent years are really all that unprecedented.     

The Challenge of Funding Consensus-Building Processes

Negotiation Journal -