Searching for Sanctuary: Government Power and the Location of Maritime Piracy

Recent systematic work on the incidence of maritime piracy shows the importance of various political, economic, and geographic correlates at the country level. Yet these correlates tell us little about the determinants of piracy location off states’ coasts, despite the fact that piracy is well known to cluster locally. Conceptualizing pirates as strategic actors who consider the risk of detection and capture, this article argues that states’ ability to project power over distance affects pirates’ decisions on where to organize and operate. As state capacity increases, piracy will locate farther away from government power centers, whereas piracy can flourish closer to state capitals in weak states that struggle to extend control over space. Using geocoded data from the International Maritime Bureau for the 1996–2013 period, results show that increases in state capacity are associated with greater median capital--piracy distances. These findings are robust to several changes in model specification. Our results have important implications for the study of piracy and crime.     

南海地区安全：打击海盗与反恐合作

南海地区不仅具有重要的战略地位，而且是世界上最繁忙的国际航道之一，其安全正面临着海盗与恐怖分子的威胁。随着国际海事局有关海盗定义的修订，要维护南海地区的安全仅依靠南海周边国家的力量是不够的，特别是马六甲海峡。因此，海峡沿岸国要求海峡使用国共同分摊维护安全的经费负担，并提供有关培训、设备和信息情报等援助。这种情况说明，维护南海地区安全必须由南海周边国家及南海航道使用国共同合作，只有通过密切的国际合作，才能有效地打击海盗与恐怖主义活动，真正地维护南海地区的安全。     

《亚洲打击海盗及武装抢劫船只的地区合作协定》评价

2006年9月4日,正式生效的《亚洲打击海盗及武装抢劫船只的地区合作协定》(以下简称《协定》)将对该地区的国际关系和打击海盗与武装抢劫船舶活动造成重要影响。对于同样是该地区有重要影响的中国来说,国内学界未对《协定》进行专门分析与论述。本文就《协定》产生的背景、《协定》与《联合国海洋法公约》中关于“海盗行为”与“武装抢劫船舶”定义之异同、缔约国在《协定》中享受的权利与义务、《协定》的意义与特点进行了分析与论述。     

The Spread of Military Innovations: Adoption Capacity Theory,Tactical Incentives,and the Case of Suicide Terrorism

What explains the adoption of military innovations? In this article, we assess the empirical validity of adoption capacity theory by reconsidering one methodologically important case analyzed by Michael Horowitz: the diffusion of suicide terrorism. We show that, when addressing problems in Horowitz's research design, the case of suicide terrorism fails to support adoption capacity theory. We argue that, in order to account for the diffusion of this innovation, one needs to take into consideration the tactical incentives to overcome technologically superior enemies. The results of our quantitative and qualitative analyses suggest that terrorist groups fighting against very powerful states in terms of conventional capabilities are more likely to employ suicide attacks than those fighting against poorly equipped ones. Our findings are important because they provide systematic evidence in support of Kalyvas and Sànchez-Cuenca's argument that suicide terrorism is driven by tactical considerations and because they provide confidence in the external validity of Berman and Laitin's hardness of targets hypothesis. Our results also question Lyall and Wilson's finding that highly mechanized armies are inherently inadequate to win counterinsurgency operations. The superior conventional capabilities of a counterinsurgency army might in fact make traditional insurgent tactics ineffective and thus give insurgents an incentive to adopt suicide attacks.     

The Practice and Impacts of Russian-style Hybrid Warfare

The term hybrid warfare was first coined by US military scholars and later widely adopted in the West to refer to Russian military operations in the Ukrainian and Syrian crises.In Russia,it is called "Gerasimovism".Russia adapted the idea of hybrid warfare for its military operations in Ukraine and Syria into a Russian-style hybrid warfare that has seen successful results so far.This model is likely to impact future military developments.     

国际金融中心:上海与莫斯科的博弈

基于对世界金融体系、区域金融布局、本国经济金融发展和政治影响力等方面的考虑,中俄两国相继提出要建立国际金融中心。通过对两国经济、金融、政策、基础设施和人才等多方面的现状比较可以发现,上海相对于莫斯科在建设国际金融中心的综合优势更加明显。但作为战略目标相近、地理位置相邻的两个大国,在未来两国建设国际金融中心的过程中,对于战略空间、金融资源、金融创新和货币领域的竞争将不可避免。因此,建议在竞争的同时,还要加强政策、资本市场、货币领域的合作,力争实现错位发展。     

欧美列强的东亚地缘及海军战略(19~20世纪中叶)

19~20世纪中叶,欧美列强在东亚推行由基地、经关键点、再进行展开以及建立缓冲区、防波堤的地缘战略;基于地缘之上,欧美列强推行夺取储煤站、建立海军基地、控制重要航道、以小规模舰队威胁或集中海上力量击溃对手的海军制胜战略。欧美列强的东亚地缘及海军战略对东亚尤其是中、日、俄三国关系产生了巨大的影响。     

建设东北亚航运中心与人才战略

大连建设东北亚航运中心需要一批高质量的航运专门人才与航运直接相关的专业人才以及非专业性的其他几类人才。目前,建设航运中心所需人才的量和质都远不能满足需要。建设航运中心,应大力抓好培养人才的基础工作,包括:树立科学的人才观;制定人力资源规划预测;抓好三个基本环节;建立符合航运中心建设需要的人才开发体系;通过抓好人才管理工作,发挥人才作用;发挥现有航运教育资源优势培养人才。     

The EU and China in a Polycentric World:The Case of Afghanistan

A Polycentric Post-Hegemonic World The world is becoming polycentric.The unipolar moment is fading,as the U.S.President himself has recognized.The relative decline of the U.S.and the EU is not the consequence of the current financial crisis but of the rise of China,India and Brazil and of a number of middle powers.As the EUISS ESPAS Report on Global Trends 2030 predicts,there will be a plurality of actors,and no single world power will play a hegemonic role.Polycentrism will be accompanied by an economic power shift toward Asia,where over half of the world's population will be concentrated by 2030.     

De-Europeanisation and Equal Citizenship in Turkey: The Case of Circassians

ABSTRACT

The Europeanisation process in Turkey that extended roughly from 1999 to 2006 boosted the political and cultural rights of diverse ethnic groups in Turkey, including Circassians, and strengthened their claims for equal citizenship. With the loss or weakening of the EU as an anchor for democratic reform in the post-2007 period, however, the de-Europeanisation process has resulted in the disappearance of the main legal and institutional basis for the democratic integration of ethnocultural minorities. Nevertheless, analysis of the activities of four large Circassian communities in Turkey shows that the same process has enhanced the cultural reification of these groups as their survival strategy.     

政治参与和政治稳定——关于当前拉美国家政局经常出现局部动荡的一种解释

拉美国家政治参与的主体主要有政党、社会运动、土著人组织、天主教会、工会、军队、国际组织和个人等。首先,上述任何参与既可能采取体制内或合法的参与形式,又有可能采取体制外的或非法的参与形式,这主要取决于一国和地区内各主体时代背景、政治经济条件以及参与主体的力量结构的不同。其次,上述任何主体体制外的政治参与都有可能影响到该国或地区的政治稳定。第三,拉美国家政局局部动荡的制度方面的原因,就是这些国家议会民主制度已经确立,但由于人民教育水平和政治觉悟的提高,文化、分配和政治上的需求迅速增加,与当前拉美的政治参与机制,如政党制度、三权分立等制度不健全之间产生矛盾,人民的愿望难以伸张,需求难以得到满足,对政府的信任度降低,转而采取非法参与形式,引发政治局部动荡。     

天主教会政治-社会立场的转变与政治发展进程:拉美实例

自天主教传入拉美近500年的历史进程中,教会在拉美的政治-社会地位经历了三次根本性变化,与此相适应,其社会-政治立场也发生三次重要转变.三次变化和转变既是拉美政治发展进程的结果,又对这一进程产生了巨大影响.天主教会一直与拉关的政治发展进程有着密切联系,是该进程的重要组成部分.经过政治-社会地位的重大变化,天主教会虽已不再是拉美国家政治舞台上最强有力的竞争者,但仍能在一系列重大问题上发挥重要影响.     

经济自由与非传统安全——基于拉丁美洲经济研究

20世纪80年代,新自由主义改革在美国的实践取得了一定的成效,于是西方国家把其当作发展经济的“药方”向发展中国家推销,拉美国家成了新自由主义的“试验田”。新自由主义的改革使拉美国家迎来了短暂的经济繁荣,但数年之后它们纷纷爆发了金融危机。本文认为,新自由主义在使拉美国家的经济体制不断走向市场化和自由化的同时,也为拉美国家带来了经济和社会等方面的非传统安全问题。非传统安全是近些年来逐渐在国际政治学界和国际实践中广为使用的一个概念。它主要包括经济安全、社会安全等方面。随着全球化的发展,各国的经济联系越来越密切,经济风险也随之加大。在经济安全方面,国际行为体成为西方发达国家施加干预和影响的工具。例如,国际货币基金组织对1982年墨西哥爆发的债务危机加以干涉。社会安全包括政局动荡、犯罪、人权、道德、人民健康等问题。在社会安全方面,在西方国家的干预下,拉美国家进行了经济自由化改革,其结果是,失业人数大增,价格剧烈波动,劳动者实际收入减少,生活水平下降。作者认为,拉美国家受新自由主义危害的惨痛教训给中国的启示是,中国的改革不能照搬新自由主义模式,应处理好经济自由与经济安全和社会安全之间的关系,以防范非传统安全的隐患。     

Transnational Networks and Policy Diffusion: The Case of Gender Mainstreaming

How can we account for the global diffusion of remarkably similar policy innovations across widely differing nation-states? In an era characterized by heightened globalization and increasingly radical state restructuring, this question has become especially acute. Scholars of international relations offer a number of theoretical explanations for the cross-national convergence of ideas, institutions, and interests. We examine the proliferation of state bureaucracies for gender mainstreaming. These organizations seek to integrate a gender-equality perspective across all areas of government policy. Although they so far have received scant attention outside of feminist policy circles, these mainstreaming bureaucracies—now in place in over 100 countries—represent a powerful challenge to business-as-usual politics and policymaking. As a policy innovation, the speed with which these institutional mechanisms have been adopted by the majority of national governments is unprecedented. We argue that transnational networks composed largely of nonstate actors (notably women's international nongovernmental organizations and the United Nations) have been the primary forces driving the diffusion of gender mainstreaming. In an event history analysis of 157 nation-states from 1975 to 1998, we assess how various national and transnational factors have affected the timing and the type of the institutional changes these states have made. Our findings support the claim that the diffusion of gender-mainstreaming mechanisms has been facilitated by the role played by transnational networks, in particular by the transnational feminist movement. Further, they suggest a major shift in the nature and the locus of global politics and national policymaking.     

Terrorism and Politics: The Case of Northern Ireland's Loyalist Paramilitaries

This article reviews the history of the various political parties associated with the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) and the Ulster Defence Association (UDA): the two main loyalist or Protestant terrorist organizations in Northern Ireland. In the 1970s and 1980s, the UDA was more successful than the UVF in establishing a political presence, partly because it had the more distinct political philosophy and partly because its political leaders were able to distance themselves from the organization's terror campaign. However, since the ceasefires of 1994, fortunes have been reversed. The UVF's political party has been more successful; partly because it has managed to create the more distinct political position and partly because the new climate made close association with terrorism something of a political advantage.     

The Political Cost-Effectiveness of Private Vessel Protection: The Italian Case

Italy has traditionally been wary of private providers of security. Still, private military and security companies (PMSCs) have recently started to play an important role in protecting Italian merchant vessels, eventually replacing the military vessel protection detachment units (VPDs) provided by the Italian Navy. Drawing on neoclassical realism, the increasing involvement of PMSCs in protecting Italian merchant ships is presented as an attempt to reduce the political costs associated with the use of military personnel abroad, epitomised by the arrest of two Italian Navy fusiliers by Indian authorities in February 2012.     

当代东南亚华人社团的发展变化——以泉州籍华人同乡社团为例

东南亚地区历来是海外华人社团集中之地。21世纪50年代以来,随着适应当地国社会和国际环境的变化,东南亚华人社团不断进行自我调适和完善。本文以东南亚泉州籍同乡社团为例,详细分析泉州籍同乡社团出现的发展变化：定位本地化、管理信息化、发展国际化及重视培育青年力量,进而探讨当代东南亚华人社团的普遍发展趋势。