Development Trends for International Strategy and Security Environment

The year 2010 bids farewell to the first decade of the 21 st century and ushers in its second ten years. In the past decade or 20 years since the end of the Cold War, the world has experienced sustained and deepening development of globalization, polarization and informationization, the Gulf Wars, the Kosovo War, the September 11 Incident, the Iraqi War and the Afghan War as well as the food crisis and financial crisis. Under the spur of such significant events, international politics, economy, society,     

中亚国家:国际战略、外交政策与国家安全

分析影响中亚五国制定国际战略、外交政策和国家安全战略的各种因素,简介各国国际战略、外交政策和国家安全战略的异同点及其原因,以及中亚五国外交和国家安全观的特点,指出维护国家利益和民族利益是各国制定国际战略、外交政策和国家安全战略的出发点和核心.在当前国际形势相当复杂和"三股恶势力"肆虐中亚的情况下,中亚各国国家安全战略正面临巨大的考验.     

International Strategy and Security Environment Development Trends over the Next 5 to 10 Years

The world will continue to change radically over the next five to ten years. The current one superpower and many powers order will change to one of multi-polarity. Relations between major powers will take on a new shape. The rate of change will start to accelerate but these changes will continue to be peaceful and incremental. Competition will intensify over who will set the rules. Chaos,disorder,uncertainty and even turmoil will grow more apparent in the international security situation. This will make nat...     

EU Security Strategy

The European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) comprises an important part of the EU's Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). The aim of ESDP is to strengthen the EU's external ability to act through the development of civilian and military capabilities for international conflict prevention and crisis management. In December 2003, the EU adopted its first European Security Strategy (ESS). Ever since then, the implementation of the ESS has been regarded as one of the biggest challenges for the EU in CFSP/ESDP matters. Although much progress has been made in its independent security and defence-building process, EU still faces serious problems and difficulties in this policy area. This paper tries to examine these recent developments, assess their impacts in regional-global security, and analyze existing problems and future trends. Finally, the author also examines EU-China engagements in recent years and explores possibilities for their future cooperation in the area of international security.     

2011年拉美地区安全形势回顾

2011年拉美地区继续保持总体和平的安全形势,地区内国家通过双边和多边机制构建互信和加强防务合作,应对与地区外国家的冲突。巴西和阿根廷积极加强双边防务合作,成为深化地区安全合作的重要驱动力。拉美国家,尤其是南美国家在近年普遍提高军费支出,掀起一轮军备更新的热潮,但是这种状况并未恶化为一场地区性军事竞赛,拉美军费支出的绝对值仍然处于较低水平。在非传统安全领域,拉美面对来自有组织犯罪和恐怖主义的挑战。反毒是当前美国与拉美安全合作的关键所在,美国希望加强与拉美国家的合作,以便共同打击贩毒,改善公共安全。     

国际能源安全的新变局

能源安全不仅关系到国家的经济安全,而且影响到政治与军事安全。因此,能源安全是一国的战略问题,是国家安全的核心内容。进入21世纪以来,国际恐怖活动猖獗,全球地缘政治形势不稳,国际油价持续飙升,使能源安全问题再次升温。为确保能源安全,美国、欧盟和日本等先后制定新的能源战略或政策,突出节流,强化开源,加强国际合作,坚持多样化原则。     

Infectious Diseases and International Security

The article discusses the relationship between epidemics and international security. It analyzes how human economic behaviors have broken the equilibrium of co-evolution, and examines the possible dangerous impacts of this upon human society. Finally, mechanisms of cooperation against pandemics at the governmental and grassroots level are listed. The authors argue that only by revising our conception of development and establishing an integrated understanding of global progress can we achieve international cooperation against epidemics.     

Credibility and Strategy in International Mediation

We study mediation in international conflict as a process of strategic interaction among the two disputants and the (would-be) mediator. We develop a rational model that examines the choice, process, and outcome of mediation. We start with a conflict game of incomplete information played by rational players that examines the conditions under which disputants and would-be mediators would consider mediation a preferred strategy. The mediation game that follows models the mediator's choice of mediation strategy and the possible responses of the disputants offers. Finally, we explore the conditions under which a mediated solution emerges and the conditions under which mediation fails.

The credibility of the mediator—defined as the extent to which disputants believe the mediator's statements, threats, or promises and her ability to deliver the promised agreement—emerges as a key factor that drives the model. Each disputant has an assessment of the mediator's credibility. Broadly speaking, the more credible the mediator is perceived by the disputant, the more accepting the disputant will be of her offers. Yet, the mediator does not know how credible she is in the view of the disputants. This uncertainty affects the mediator's decision to intervene and her choice of strategies. We derive testable propositions from this model and test them on a dataset consisting of mediation efforts in international conflicts over the years 1945–1995. The findings generally support the propositions derived from the model, and we explore the theoretical and empirical implications of these findings.     

Strategy and Selection in International Relations

It is widely recognized that many of the samples we use for statistical analysis in international politics are the result of some selection process. Not surprisingly, selection models are becoming increasingly popular. At the same time, the role of strategic interaction has begun to play a more important role in statistical analyses. However, it has not been clear how statistical strategic models and selection models relate to each other, or what the effects are of employing one when the other is the more appropriate model. In this article, I 1) clarify why international relations scholars cannot shield themselves from selection bias simply by assuming their results are limited to a given sample; 2) show how recent statistical strategic models relate to traditional selection models and generalize the two sets of models by deriving a correlated strategic model; and 3) examine the effects of misspecifying either correlated errors or strategic interaction. My results indicate that failure to model the strategic interaction produces worse specification error than failure to account for correlated disturbances. In fact, traditional bivariate probit models appear to be superior only when states are almost completely uncertain about each others' preferences.     

美国国家安全战略调整与新世纪初的国际关系

美国国家安全战略的调整已是近几年来国际上最热门的话题。美国大幅调整国家安全战略牵动了新世纪初国际关系的变化。 美国国家安全战略调整与新保守主义思潮的兴起密切相关。美不少学者认为,随着伊拉克局势的恶化,新保守主义思潮在衰退,对美政府的影响在下降。这到底对美国安全战略将会产生何种影响,我们还需观察。 依赖军事优势“先发制人”,虽可攻城略地,但不会根除威胁,更无法赢得人心,反而会使国际关系紧张,造成世界局势动荡。 在新世纪的国际关系中,实现和平与发展的有利条件和不利条件相互交织,积极因素和消极因素相互转化,形成了一种机遇与挑战对立统一的辩证关系。面对这种复杂局面,国际社会应牢牢抓住和平与发展的时代主题,顺应合作与进步的历史潮流,坚持多边主义,加强国际合作,维护共同安全,实现共同发展。     

美国国际战略和国际关系研究中心

美国国际战略和国际关系研究中心于1 962年成立,是现在美国国内规模最大的国际问题研究机构,总部设在华盛顿。该研究中心是一个非党派、非政府的民间国际问题研究机构和免税组织。40多年来,国际战略和国际关系研究中心一直以宣传世界各国领导人关于现实中的重大国际问题和对未来的全球性问题的战略观点和政治决策为工作重点。该研究中心与很多国家的政要保持着密切的接触,与世界各国的3 0多个知名研究所有项目合作。国际战略和国际关系研究中心的研究成果受到世界各国的重视,尤其是美国国会十分看重国际战略和国际关系研究中心的研究能力,认…     

论当前国际军备控制与裁军形势

长期以来,国际军备控制机制得到国际上的广泛参与和普遍遵守,但由于种种原因,军控机制存在着严重的脆弱性和执行的复杂性。当前在军备控制领域,一方面是美国总统奥巴马"无核武器"的倡议在国际上引起强烈反应,另一方面是朝核、伊核问题前景扑朔迷离,核武器、核材料、核技术扩散形势严峻。此时,美俄两个核大国重启核裁军进程,促使其他核国家也为核裁军、保证核安全采取积极行动,形势有了转变。联合国安理会在促进国际军控、防止核扩散方面也可以有所作为。人们期待2010年的核不扩散条约取得成果。     

NATO--Upholding Ethics in International Security Policy

From a vantagepoint of the September 11 attacks on New York and Washington, this commentary assesses the role of NATO in the field of ethics in foreign policy. Jamie Shea interprets the decision to invoke the 'collective defence' Article 5 of the Washington Treaty as a continuation of the acceptance of a shared destiny which is at the heart of ethics in international security policy. The focal point of this argument is the need to develop the capacity to quickly deploy civilian capabilities, such as police, to conflict hot spots. Military success for crisis management missions depends critically on civilian success--and civilian success depends on effective law enforcement. Ultimately, ethics in international affairs does not end with fine principles and stern moral judgements, but rather with credible organisations and capabilities to ensure that democratic values are upheld. NATO is and will remain indispensable to this effort.     

以色列安全战略及其缺陷

近些年,以色列外部环境虽不断改善,却面临日益严重的外交孤立和安全威胁。这与以色列的安全战略过分倚重军事手段直接相关。军事手段本身的先天局限,加上以色列不顾外部和自身处境变化一味使用武力,使以色列安全环境难以乐观。从长远看,以色列要想谋得持久安全,需要更多地借助政治手段。     

Current International Cooperation and Developments in Information Security

Global information security and the threats to its integrity are becoming increasingly important. In this paper,the authors talk about areas requiring international cooperation, the major problems with current international cooperation, and finally give their reflections on international cooperation.     

International Conflict,International Security Environment,and Military Coups

Why do some countries repeatedly experience military coups while others seem immune? Are countries more prone to military coups when faced with external threats? The answers to these questions still remain contested: While several scholars hold that countries facing external threats are more vulnerable to coups, others argue that such countries are actually more secure from coups. I argue that by failing to distinguish between immediate and acute threats, caused by wars and militarized conflicts, and chronic threats from a state’s international security environment, the existing literature ignores the possibility that these two types of external threats differently affect the likelihood of coups. I propose that wars and militarized conflicts, infrequent and often short lived, decrease coup propensity, while a threatening security environment increases coup risk. I find strong supporting evidence that the presence of chronic international threats increases the likelihood of coups while acute international conflicts lower that likelihood.     

Future International Trends as Predicted from International Situation of 2011

The chaos of the international strategic situation of 2011 will lead to the decline of the West,the growth of the Asia-Pacific as the global geopolitical center,the weakening of the trend towards multi-polarization,the rise of the G2 pattern in international situation,the theme of "peace and development" in addressing new challenges,and increasing importance of the "war and peace" issue.     

国际安全制度与总体国家安全：一种理论分析

一国的总体国家安全虽然涉及方方面面,但国内政治和国际政治是贯穿这些领域的两条主线。国际安全制度构成了维护各领域国家安全的重要依托：国际安全制度能够塑造各国国家安全的外部环境,影响不同领域的国家安全利益,促进不同领域的国际安全合作,从而有利于实现各国的总体国家安全。二战结束以来,主权平等、不干涉内政和不使用武力解决国际争端等基本原则已经大大改善了全球安全环境,构成中小国家主权独立和国家安全的重要保障。同时,普遍性的国际安全原则和规范也可以应用到各个具体领域的安全规则的构建,从而直接影响各国维护相关领域国家安全的能力与利益。多边安全联盟会带来高水平的国际安全合作,促进联盟成员的总体国家安全,但也可能减损其他国家的安全水平,从而导致冲突。纯粹的区域性集体安全制度在提升各成员国家安全水平的同时,也具有合作安全和共同安全的优点。各国应该积极参与国际安全制度的构建,并有效运用国际安全制度提升本国的国家安全水平。