The Iran Nuclear Issue in Sino-U.S. Relations

The Iran nuclear issue has become the "third factor" in Sino-U.S. relations. Problems began when the U.S. imposed sanctions against Chinese companies, and this became a major issue affecting Sino-U.S. relationship.China and the U.S. have different agendas in dealing the Iran nuclear issue. However, they also share some common ground. Different scenarios regarding the Iran nuclear issue affect Sino- U.S. relations in different ways.     

评美国主流学派之美日同盟观

就20世纪90年代强化后美日同盟的未来发展,美国学者提出了“维持同盟现状”、“适应日本的崛起”、“渐进主义”、“成熟的伙伴”等观点,其中对美国新政府影响最大的是“阿米蒂奇-奈报告”,这一报告呼吁美国政府基于美英特殊关系的模式提升美日双边安全关系,并确定有6个领域需要作重大调整才能创造一种成熟的伙伴关系和持久的美日同盟。这些主流思想学派存在着一个共同观点和目标,即都支持美国政府维持或加强美日同盟关系。他们都认为美日同盟对于亚太地区的长期和平与稳定,特别是两国的安全利益是至关重要的,因而必须予以维持或强化。     

Understanding the Unilateralist Turn in U.S. Foreign Policy

How should we explain the recent unilateralist turn in U.S. foreign policy? Some accounts treat growing American unilateralism as a passing aberration attributable to the neoconservative ideology of the Bush administration. This paper, by contrast, traces U.S. unilateralism to the structural effects, at home and abroad, of the end of the Cold War. Internationally, the removal of the Soviet threat has undermined the "institutional bargain" that once guided relations between the U.S. and its major allies. Absent Cold War imperatives, the U.S. is less willing to provide collective goods through strong international institutions and other states are less likely to defer to U.S. demands for special privileges that exempt the U.S. from normal multilateral constraints. Domestically, the end of the Cold War has weakened the ability of presidents to resist the appeals of powerful veto players whose interests are threatened by multilateral commitments. These factors suggest that American unilateralism may have deeper roots and more staying power than many expect.     

奥巴马的外交政策与中美关系展望

奥巴马成功当选美国总统,美国政治步入“奥巴马时代”。本质上属于自由主义的奥巴马具有“现实的理想主义”外交理念,在确保美国全球霸权地位的前提下,他会在安全、经济、民主以及全球性问题等对外政策领域有所调整。奥巴马对华政策的延续性将大于变革性,有理由对未来中美关系的发展持谨慎乐观的态度。     

美国对华经贸规锁:典型事实、行为逻辑与战略约束

特朗普政府执政后,美国从升级对华关税制裁、重塑国际贸易规则、严控高新技术获取、扩容货币互换协议、打压中国概念股票、推进产业链自主化和"去中国化"六个维度,对中国实施选择性"挂钩"和关键领域"脱钩"的经贸规锁。其行为逻辑,一是为满足国内多元化经济集团的利益诉求,二是基于美国对中国崛起的"威胁认知"和大国战略竞争的"权力逻辑"。从战略约束看,美国开放性利益集团的经济理性、其他经济体的行为取向、中国的结构性国家竞争优势,构成了美国对华经贸规锁的重要制约因素。作为应对,中国需确定"全政府"的战略模式,理解"双循环"的科学内涵,贯彻改革开放的既定方针,重视"一带一路"倡议的战略意义。     

新一届美国政府对外政策及影响前瞻笔谈

近年来,世界多极化趋势不断发展,美国主导的全球秩序开始显露坍缩征兆。然而,美国仍然保持着当今世界唯一的超级大国地位,其内政外交政策选择一直具有全球性影响。特朗普政府实施的"美国优先"政策对全球秩序造成了严重冲击,特别是对华发动极限施压性的"贸易战"和战略竞争,使中美关系发生严重倒退。特朗普政府随心所欲、极端强硬的执政风格,不仅招致很多国家的激烈批判和反对,在美国国内也引起了巨大争议。美国大选已经落下帷幕,尽管现任总统特朗普仍然没有承认和接受败选事实,但美国政府更迭已经无可逆转。新一届美国政府将采取什么样的对外政策?我们将如何应对美国因政府更迭而发生的政策调整?为加强对美国对外政策的前瞻研究,2020年11月5日,本刊编辑部联合吉林大学经济学院、现代国际关系研究所、东北亚研究院、东北亚研究中心、美国研究所等单位召开了"美国大选后的世界格局与中美关系"学术研讨会,10位专家做了会议发言。本刊选择其中3篇和另外1篇投稿摘要刊发,希望能够促进对美国新一届政府内政外交政策的前瞻性研究。     

The Personalization(s) of Politics: Israel, 1949–2003

The relationship between the United States and Iran has had an important influence on world affairs during the past two decades. Accordingly, the U.S. news media have an instrumental role in portraying U.S.‐Iran relations to the public. The Iranian Revolution and hostage crisis of 1979–1981, the TWA hijacking of 1985, the Irangate controversy of 1986–1987, and the Persian Gulf War of 1990–1991 are examples of important media events that have impacted public opinion regarding U.S. policy toward Iran. This research analyzes government and print media portrayals of the Reagan administration's U.S.‐Iran policy during Irangate. Results supported the prediction that the print media would fulfill their “watchdog” function by providing more critical portrayals of the United States' policy toward Iran than the Tower Commission Report, an investigative document published by President Reagan's Special Review Board. Among the three leading newspapers analyzed, there was significant diversity in the reporting of U.S.‐Iran relations. Results indicate the Reagan administration's attempt to “spin” its version of Irangate did not successfully pressure the media to neglect their watchdog role. Although the Tower Commission Report was less critical of U.S. policy toward Iran than the print media, all four print media sources portrayed the Reagan administration's policy as a flawed approach that degenerated into trading arms for hostages. Implications of these findings for future research are discussed.     

美国防部《2009中国军力报告》评析

美国国防部发布的“中国军力报告”既是美国对中国军力的认知反应,也是美国拟定对华政策的重要参考依据。《2009中国军力报告》总体上缺乏新意,一方面反映奥巴马政府对华战略尚处于构建阶段,预示其将延续前任政府的对华政策;另一方面也表明中美关系的发展将处于相对稳定状态。然而,就报告出台的背景及报告本身的权威性而言,仍值得关注。     

The Futenma Issue： Implications for U.S.-Japan Alliance

The U.S.-Japan alliance is undergoing a ＂quiet crisis＂ over the plan to relocate the U.S. Marine Corps Air Station at Futenma. While it is the Japanese side that is hesitating over the relocation, relations between the two countries are also affecting how this issue is being tackled and will impact the formal alliance in the long run.     

The Gwadar Port Issue in Sino-U.S. Relations

Because of its unique geopolitical importance,China's aid to construct Gwadar Port has caused much concern in the U.S. and other countries. The U.S. sees it as strategic expansion in the Indian Ocean and claims that China is intent on using Gwadar Port as a naval base in its "string of pearls strategy." The U.S. and China maintain conflicting interests on this issue. Although Sino-U.S.relations may not be affected greatly in the near future, the negative influence in the long term cannot be ignored.     

Future U.S.-Russian Relations

Presidential changes in Russia and the U.S. may open new opportunities for improving increasingly important bilateral relations, but expectations are not high. With the elapse of the so-called Putin autocracy and the Bush unilateralism, U.S.-Russian relations are overshadowed by a new ＂Cold Word War,＂ if not a Cold War. The U.S. will continue to accuse Russia of running an autocracy in order to justify its own invasive foreign conduct and gain the moral high-ground. The two powers will be involved in a bitter struggle, alternating between offensives and defensives, containment and cooperation.     

U.S. National Identity,Political Elites,and a Patriotic Press Following September 11

In the aftermath of the terrorist attacks on New York City and Washington, D.C. on September 11, 2001, U.S. government and military leaders often articulated distinctly pro-American themes in their public communications. We argue that this national identity discourse was at the heart of the U.S. government's attempt to unite the American public and to mobilize support for the ensuing "war on terrorism." With this perspective, we content analyzed Time and Newsweek newsmagazines for the five weeks following September 11 to identify potential communication strategies employed by government and military leaders to promote a sense of U.S. national identity. Findings suggest (a) that government and military officials consistently emphasized American core values and themes of U.S. strength and power while simultaneously demonizing the "enemy," and (b) that journalists closely paralleled these nationalist themes in their language.     

The Growing Role of States in U.S. Foreign Policy: The Case of the State Partnership Program

States can and do play an important role in contemporary U.S. foreign policy. This article will discuss the growing role of states through an investigation of the State Partnership Program (SSP). The SSP pairs state National Guards with the militaries of other countries through U.S. military engagement programs. The state-level National Guard then becomes the primary site for implementing U.S. military engagement programs. Both a federalism and decision-making perspective, however, are unable to recognize this role. The decision-making bias of foreign policy analysis affords states a limited international role and minimal influence in shaping the policies of the government toward other countries. An implementation perspective, however, reveals a growing role of states carrying out U.S. foreign policy, including the "high politics" of national security issues. States give decisions meaning through the practice of policy implementation. A detailed case study of the Maryland–Estonia partnership illustrates how an implementation perspective can recognize a growing role of states in shaping U.S. foreign policy.     

利益、战略及美国台海政策的矛盾性

外交领域里的利益、战略与政策是相互关联、相互影响的一组变量。美国维持台海“不统、不独、不武”的政策是美国实现其台海利益最大化的战略意图。“不统”是美国实现霸权的必然选择；“不武”才能维持东亚和平的基本态势：中国制止“台独”的意志和决心使美国不得不以遏制“法理台独”来防止武力冲突。美国的台海政策本身就是自相矛盾的。     

新安全视角下美国政府的气候政策

"人类安全"逐渐成为一种新的安全理念,环境气候问题等各种影响人类安全和福祉的非传统安全问题日益引起广泛关注。全球性安全威胁的严重程度则取决于治理框架的反应能力。包括气候政策、法律和机构在内的气候环境治理框架能够最大限度地削弱全球化冲突的根源,避免影响的发生或减缓其进程。奥巴马上任以来美国新政府能源、环境和应对气候变化政策出现较大调整,大力推动新能源法案来减缓气候变化。这一政策转向具有深刻的历史动因和政治基础,并将给美国经济复苏和美国企业的国际竞争力带来压力,加剧美国对外贸易摩擦和削弱其在国际气候环境合作中的领导地位。     

Chen''s Scrappiing of "NUC" and U.S. Predicament

On February 27, 2006, Chen Shuibian announced his decision to cease the operation of the "National Unification Council (NUC) and the application of its guidelines," which further increased the risk of "Taiwan independence." Chen's campaign for "Taiwan independence," which in essence was an attempt to change the status quo, thus gravely damaging the cross-strait relations. The next day,the White House and U. S. State Department made a separate response. On the one hand, they argued that Chen didn't change the status quo as he only "freezed" instead of "abolishing" the "NUC"and its guidelines. On the other hand, they urged the leaders of mainland China and the Taiwan authorities to go back to the negotiation table. ① Such understatement and seeming evenhandedness by the U.S. shows its acquiescence to the reality of Chen's abolition of the"NUC," and its limited ability to control Chen's activities for "Taiwan independence." In the coming two years, Washington's current Taiwan policy will hardly continue to work, as Chen will steadily promote the modification of "The Constitution" and the "legal independence." The U. S. must make an option between allowing the "Taiwan independence" forces to impinge on its "one-China policy' and clearly suppressing the movement for "Taiwan independence."     

China-U.S. Relations Facing with New Opportunities for Development

China-U.S. relations maintained a continued and steady growth accompanied with some positive and substantial changes during the 8-year of the Bush administration. On the basis of this, China-U. S. relations are faced with great opportunities for further development at a time when the international financial crisis continues to worsen and neo-liberalism is beginning to have a hold over the diplomatic ideas of the Obama administration.     

The Nonlinear Effect of Information on Political Attention: Media Storms and U.S. Congressional Hearings

Agenda-setting scholars have claimed that the typical punctuated pattern of governmental attention is a consequence of disproportionate information processing. Yet these claims remain unsubstantiated. We tackle this challenge by considering mass media coverage as a source of information for political actors and by examining the relationship between preceding media information and subsequent governmental attention. Employing data capturing U.S. media attention and congressional hearings (1996–2006), we find that the effects of media attention on congressional attention are conditioned by the presence of “media storms”—sudden and large surges in media attention to a given topic. A one-story increase in media attention has a greater effect on congressional attention in the context of a media storm, since media storms surpass a key threshold for catching policymakers’ attention. We find evidence that the influence of media attention on political attention is nonlinear; agenda-setting operates differently when the media are in storm mode.     

奥巴马治下美国“大中东”政策前瞻

奥巴马治下的美国对外政策的重点仍将是“大中东”。从伊拉克撤军,与伊拉克在政治、经济和安全关系协议方面作出规划,以解决美国在伊拉克长期利益和军事存在;可能与伊拉克进行谈判．但难度很大;中东和平进程有可能取得进展;阿富汗和巴基斯坦将成为美国的反恐重点地区;中国因素会受到越来越多的关注。     

Comparative Study on Chinese and U.S. Media

China and the United States are two countries with quite different histories, philosophies, values and political systems and because of these difference, the two countries have two quite different media. The most notable or maybe the most fundamental difference lies in the relationships of these two media with their respective govemmentso The Chinese medium is often a part of the government and the U.S.＇ medium is basically privatively owned. This makes them almost two different things, like an apple and an orange. In most of the case, one can not use one as the standard to criticize the other and vice versa.