Dealing with uncertainty: the illusion of knowledge in the study of counterterrorism effectiveness

Efforts to combat terrorism have become a priority in the security agenda of most countries around the world, while the respective policies, tools and instruments have amounted to significant costs. In this article, we review the literature on counterterrorism (CT) effectiveness and draw a series of rather negative conclusions with regard to the reliability of our knowledge in this area. We find that the literature displays case and data selection biases, and the results produced are oftentimes contradictory, mostly due to the use of different indicators. We then propose a conceptualisation of CT effectiveness, which should help to resolve some of the issues outlined. The article concludes by outlining some future research directions that should improve our methodological grasp in the field.     

Resistance and reform: discourses on marital law in Japan*

This article examines opinions concerning fūfubessei (a married couple retaining their birth surnames) posted on an online forum. Recently, the topic of fūfubessei has once again come under a spotlight, since the Japanese Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the Civil Code Article 750, which stipulates that a married couple must choose either the husband's or wife's surname upon marriage registration. Owing to the large number of women forfeiting their surnames, the fūfubessei issue has often been researched from feminist perspectives, which may have hindered the voices of others. This article analyzes, using text mining (quantitative analysis) and discourse analysis (qualitative analysis), a large number of opinions from people of various cultural backgrounds. The results of this study reveal a diversity of beliefs and attitudes towards Article 750, reflecting the complexity of the issue. In general, proponents of reform claim the law violates equality, rights and liberty. From opponents there was a strong push to conform rather than to recognize a need for individual choice. Moreover, the many personal narratives provided insight into issues on the ground and revealed how many in Japanese society have dealt with the law, social pressure and social expectations and why they have followed the path they have chosen.     

俄罗斯西西伯利亚油气开采区社会经济问题分析

世界经济的发展对石油和天然气的需求不断加大,这也使提高产地产量和开发新产地成为油气开采区的主要发展方向。西西伯利亚是俄罗斯最主要的产油区,随着西西伯利亚油气产区各类经济活动的全面开展,当地居民的生活水平也发生了巨大变化。但是,油气资源的不可再生性,也要求当局在进行资源开采的同时,考虑在产量下降乃至枯竭时可能引发的经济和社会后果。     

Mental discipline,punishment and recidivism: reading Foucault against de-radicalisation programmes in the War on Terror

This article uses Michel Foucault’s Discipline and Punish to examine how de-radicalisation programmes in the War on Terror transform power–knowledge relations, mental discipline and punishment by attempting to instil self-governance through non-violence. Foucault’s theories on the evolution of discipline and punishment can be applied to de-radicalisation programmes, but only after considerable revision. By asking questions on the nature of knowledge, practice, state involvement and recidivism of de-radicalisation, I contend that many programmes may be ultimately limited by a disproportionate focus on religious rehabilitation rather than political dialogue regarding the motivations for such violence.     

Post-9/11 counterterrorism in popular culture: the spectacle and reception of The Bourne Ultimatum and 24

This article examines the representation of counterterrorism in contemporary film and television and surveys its reception among active online audiences. Contemporary counterterrorism fiction like The Bourne Ultimatum (2007 The Bourne ultimatum. 2007. Film. Directed by Paul Greengrass. Produced by Doug Liman, Henry Morrison and Jeffrey M. Weiner. USA.  [Google Scholar]; Film. Directed by Paul Greengrass) and the TV series 24 (2001–2010; Television series. Created by Robert Cochran and Joel Surnow), present viewers with conventional hero-driven narratives wrapped in a spectacle of high-tech surveillance technologies. As counterterrorism is an inherently covert exercise, the widespread popularity of these Hollywood franchises raises questions about how the public understands the capabilities and ethics of counterterrorism. These questions are addressed through an analysis of the generic and aesthetic features of the texts along with a survey of audience responses on the Internet Movie Database (IMDb).     

保护东南亚的文化多样性：东南亚的人类口头非物质遗产

东南亚地区是世界知名的人类文化多样性的宝库，在全球化时代，保护本土民俗文化、民族传统的传承和发展成为了紧迫的任务。21世纪，联合国教科文组织把东南亚地区的9项非物质文化列入了“人类口头非物质遗产代表作”名录。本文首先梳理了“口头非物质遗产”这一文化概念的定义，以及其中的社会话语内涵；然后把入选的9项代表作进行分类归纳，探讨它们的特点；最后分析了这些代表作在文化多样性保护中面临的问题和相应的保护行动。     

东南亚教堂艺术的表现形式与本土化特点

作为西方文化的典型代表,基督教在东南亚社会中具有深厚而长远的影响。本文重点选取菲律宾和越南的天主教堂作为研究对象,集中讨论巴洛克式和哥特式建筑风格在东南亚地区教堂中的体现。笔者认为,第一,教堂建筑为了适应东南亚的地理环境,进行了大量外形上的变化。建造教堂的工匠又在建筑的细节部分加入了许多本土文化的元素。第二,殖民统治结束以后,教堂已经成为西方文化的象征,在现代东南亚社会中,教堂已经成为本土文化特定的表现形式。     

Social accountability and community forest management: the failure of collaborative governance in the Wombat Forest

This article presents a critical analysis of what caused the failure of Australia's first Community Forest Management (CFM) trial. We explore how ‘community’ was conceptualised and represented through the dynamic CFM process, leading to contradictions and conflicts that could not be resolved. We examine the governance structures and institutions that were created to try to enable community participation in forest management. Ambiguity and uncertainty in the power and purpose of the CFM organisation, as well as power relationships within the organisation, all contributed to conflicts that eventually tore the CFM process apart.     

Science,society and the sea of fertility: new reproductive technologies in Japanese popular culture

Since the late twentieth century, assisted reproductive technologies have brought new challenges to our understanding of the family and gender relations. There are ever-widening gaps between medical practice, legal regulation and everyday understandings and practices. Some recent popular cultural texts in Japan have explored the issues raised by non-commercial surrogate motherhood. The background to these texts is a series of controversies concerning surrogacy and the use of assisted reproductive technologies and wider societal anxieties about family, reproduction and population management. In this article, I will focus on two novels by a medical practitioner and popular novelist who writes under the pseudonym Kaidō Takeru – Gene Waltz (Kaidō 2008) and Madonna Verde (Kaidō 2010) – and the associated film (ōtani 2011) and television series (NHK 2011). The fact that it was the national broadcaster Nippon Hōsō Kyōkai (NHK) that dramatised Madonna Verde suggests that the discussion of these issues was thought to have wide social and cultural resonance. I will place these texts in their social and cultural context with reference to medical, legal and popular discourses on new reproductive technologies in contemporary Japan. These new reproductive technologies have the potential to force a rethinking of masculinity, femininity, parenthood, family and gender relations. The popular texts also, however, draw on pre-existing ways of thinking about masculinity, femininity, marriage, reproduction and the relationships among science, ‘nature’ and society.     

和平与认同：小觑越南河内华族的民族认同感

移民及少数民族的民族认同感变化已成为全球感兴趣的课题，并越来越受重视。中华民族是世界上最大的民族群体，二战结束后，中国移民民族认同感变化的现象引起了学者们的关注，人们开始从社会学角度研究此现象。早期研究主要针对半世纪前生活在东南亚地区、在当地被视为少数民族的华族。本文的研究对象是目前西方学者很少涉及的越南河内的“华族”。我们认为，和其他东南亚国家不同，中越之间特有的历史、文化以及政治关系对越南华族认同感的改变有着很大的影响。     

区域化整合的文化型经济：中国与东南亚变动关系中的种族和资本因素

本文探究东南亚各国华人在变化的更大区域中所起的作用。本文从文化和经济的理论视角来审慎地评价文化主义的观点,认为不应通过幼稚的文化主义公式化,而是可以通过探究在当代资本主义形成过程中各种经济、政治、文化和社会因素的相互影响和相互渗透,来获得比较正确的认识。     

Space-Time Granger Analysis of the War in Iraq: A Study of Coalition and Insurgent Action-Reaction

We investigate insurgent-coalition interaction using the WikiLeaks dataset of Iraq war logs 2004–2009. After a review of existing theoretical interventions on the dynamics of insurgency and presenting a baseline model of violent events, we test a conceptual model of reciprocity using an innovative space-time Granger causality technique. Our estimation procedure retains predicted probabilities of reaction in response to a previous opponent's action across different temporal and spatial configurations in Iraq and in Baghdad. Our conclusions about conflict in Iraq are based on these profiles of risk—what we call space-time signatures. We find strong evidence of “tit-for-tat” associations between coalition/Iraq forces on one side and insurgents/militants on the other. Specifically, we find that the action-reaction association varies strongly by majority ethnic region across Iraq and in Baghdad, by urban and nonurban location, and within Sunni-dominated areas, by district income. While violence is strongly temporally dependent in the same location, the effect of distance varies significantly across the different subsets of the Iraq data.     

中国企业投资越南之法律环境OT分析——以《越南投资法》与《中国——东盟全面经济合作框架协议投资协议》为视角

在全球投资自由化、中国企业走出去战略的背景下,中国企业向海外投资的步伐与程度在加快加深。海外投资中分析资金投向地的法律环境是投资安全的重要前提。以越南为投资目的国,将《越南投资法》与《中国—东盟全面经济合作框架协议投资协议》进行文本实证比较分析,析透出在越南外商投资法律环境的机会与挑战,为中国企业安全走出去提供参考。     

Instrumentalizing Fukushima: Comparing Media Coverage of Fukushima in Germany,France, the United Kingdom,and Switzerland

According to the theory of instrumental actualization in mediated conflicts, the mass media tend to exaggerate events consistent with the editorial line. This theory was tested using press coverage in Germany, Switzerland, France, and the United Kingdom on the Japanese seaquake, the tsunami it caused, and the nuclear disaster of Fukushima. Within a period of seven weeks after the seaquake, the coverage in the four countries in 27 national newspapers and magazines on the three events was analyzed. As hypothesized from theory, German and Swiss media concentrated on Fukushima and stressed its relevance to domestic nuclear plants, whereas French and British media placed a greater emphasis on the tsunami and rarely related the nuclear catastrophe in Japan to domestic nuclear programs. In addition, there were remarkable correlations between the views of journalists and the bias of statements on nuclear energy presented in their news sections. Findings are discussed and related to the theory of public opinion and political decisions in liberal democracies.