Radicalism of the Hopeless: Refugee Flows and Transnational Terrorism

We examine whether refugee flows increase transnational terrorism in states to which refugees flee. Recent studies find that refugee flows contribute to the spread of interstate and civil war, but to a far lesser extent have studies examined how refugee flows could lead to other forms of political violence. We discuss two ways in which refugee flows can lead to transnational terrorism: how conditions in camps contribute to the radicalization of refugees; and how poorly host states treat refugees. We then conduct empirical tests using data on worldwide international refugee flows and transnational terrorism. Specifically, we model the effect of refugee flows on transnational terror attacks within a directed dyad framework to account for characteristics of origin and host states. Using a rare-events logit model, along with count models to check robustness, we find that refugee flows significantly increase the likelihood and counts of transnational terrorist attacks that occur in the host country, even when controlling for other variables. Given the prominence of refugee flows and populations worldwide, the results suggest that states with significant refugee populations and the international community at large should take measures to address the conditions in refugee camps, as well as the treatment of refugees by host states in order to prevent transnational terrorism.     

“东方主义”的另一种解读——艺术的东方主义

爱德华.W.萨义德(Edward.w.Said)于20世纪末阐发的东方主义理论作为后殖民主义文化批评理论之一引发了东西方学者的共鸣,因而风靡世界。在这一理论热潮的背景下,不免会出现套用或者误用的嫌疑,生搬硬套地阐释某一具体文本或作家的现象;或者出现以偏概全,完全被东方主义理论而障目,不见更丰富的文本含义等现象。为此,有必要阐明萨义德东方主义理论的缘起,从而明确"东方主义"理论具体的使用语境;通过对西方唯美主义思潮中表现出来的"日本风"等文学文化现象的解析,从另一个角度来阐释"东方主义"的丰富内涵;对唯美主义者追求的东方艺术与萨义德的东方主义理论进行比较研究,从而为同行们提供一个新的视角来理解唯美主义乃至东方主义。     

Terrorist Incidents in India, 1998–2004: A Quantitative Analysis of Fatality Rates

Using data from the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database II, this paper first provides information on the nature of terrorist incidents in India in the period 1998-2004: the Indian states that were worst affected by terrorist incidents and fatalities; the terrorist groups responsible for such incidents and their modus operandi. Next, the paper focuses on the issue of fatalities from terrorist incidents. It inquires into the extent to which the number of fatalities following an incident was influenced by the type of attack (bombings, armed assault, etc.) and the extent to which it was influenced by the type of terrorist group. By examining the number of fatalities resulting from terrorist attacks in India, the paper disentangles the influence on this number of attack type and attack group. Lastly, the paper applies Atkinson's concept of equality-adjusted income to terrorism to arrive at the concept of equality-adjusted deaths from terrorist incidents: in order to avoid spectacular incidents resulting in the loss of a large number of lives—as in New York on September 11, 2001 and in Mumbai 26–29 November 2008—“society” might be prepared to tolerate “low-grade” terrorism which resulted in a larger number of deaths in total but avoided a large number of deaths from a single iconic incident.     

Nuclear Terrorism: What Can We Learn from Los Alamos?

ABSTRACT

The international security community is increasingly concerned about the nexus between indiscriminate terrorism and the proliferation of nuclear technology and materials. Many nuclear terrorism threat assessments focus primarily on terrorist motivations to employ an atomic bomb, the availability of nuclear know-how and technology, and the opportunity for clandestine organisations to acquire fissile material. Scholars and experts, however, often neglect to elaborate on the challenges for terrorist organisations in organising and implementing the construction and detonation of a crude atomic bomb. This will most likely be a complex project. This article will therefore explore the organisation of such an endeavour. To be precise, we will highlight the impact of the organisational design of the terrorist group. The organisational design determines the division of tasks and how coordination is achieved among these tasks. It therefore has a strong impact on the functioning of any organisation, especially an innovative and complex terrorism project. Building on a case study of Los Alamos, we inductively infer that terrorist organisations face an inherent effectiveness-efficiency trade-off in designing a nuclear armament project.     

Collective Security and Non-State Actors in Eurasia

International security cooperation usually takes one of two forms. A classical collective security organization is designed to promote international security through regulating the behavior of its member states. A defensive security organization is designed to protect a group of states from threats emanating from a challenging state or group of states. Both forms of security cooperation bind states to act in concert with respect to threats presented by other states. The emergence of non-state actors such as terrorist or extremist organizations challenges traditional forms of collective security. Threats from political extremism, terrorism, and outlaw organizations have grown in visibility during the past decade in the countries of Eurasia. The terrorist attacks of September 11 and the ensuing global war on terrorism have given added impetus to the Eurasian inter-state cooperation in confronting non-traditional threats and challenges from non-state actors. Bearing in mind the theory of collective security, this article analyzes threats posed by non-state actors with respect to Eurasian collective security organizations including the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures, and the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization. The article concludes that the effectiveness of these organizations at achieving stated objectives depends upon their capacity to adopt new criteria of effectiveness.     

The Stockholm solution? Papering over the cracks within the area of freedom,security and justice

Abstract

In 2010, the EU agreed its third five year programme for internal security, with the Stockholm Programme building on pre-existing arrangements from Tampere and The Hague. This article seeks, firstly, to highlight the nature of the problem that has confronted the EU in the area of internal security, by exploring a range of thematic concerns regarding both the institutional and conceptual construction of the EU's internal security regime, from the lack of an effective statistical analysis into the nature of the problem confronting the member states to the continued fragmentation of the European level as a practical venue for policy-making. Having considered the consequences of these continuing structural flaws, in terms of both the EU's wider credibility and legitimacy as an actor in this key security field, the second half of the article proceeds to critically appraise the solutions contained both within the 2010 Stockholm Programme and the Treaty of Lisbon. Having considered both, it will be argued that, at best, the ‘Stockholm solution' simply papers over pre-existing cracks, leaving the EU with a continued credibility gap in this important and developing area of co-operation.     

Does Proximity Encourage Tolerance and Less State-Centrism?: Dismissing Monolithic Chinese Youth Perception of Terrorism and Security in a Comparative Regional Study

After 9/11, the exact perception among young Chinese of terrorism and security is little known to the world. What are their views and how are they formed? Are there any obvious differences in perception between young Chinese in different parts of China? What causes this disparity, if there is any? Are these differences intentionally created by the Chinese party-state top-down, or are they only nurtured in a bottom-up, decentralized manner? Using primary research findings obtained from original quantitative surveys and qualitative analyses, this article attempts to offer an empirical answer to these questions. The article is arranged in three sections. The first provides a review of the literature on the topic and describes the research methodology used. The second offers an analysis of our survey findings on how university students from two different cities, Shanghai and Xi'an, evolve distinctive perceptions about terrorism and security. The third section explains the framework used to analyse our findings, which can be summarized as “the nearer, the more tolerant and the less state-centric” towards terrorist-related topics. A conclusion suggests the possible roles of—and wake-up calls for—the Chinese state and the media in light of these disparate perceptions.     

美印战略伙伴：进展、问题和前景

冷战结束后 ,美印关系的进展引人注目。通过 1998年后的战略对话和最高领导人的互访 ,以及 9 11后两国关系的转型 ,到今年年初双方宣布“下一步战略伙伴”倡议 ,双边关系进入一个新的高度。基于共同的价值和利益 ,华盛顿和新德里在经济和安全领域开展了前所未有的合作。但在双边关系不断升温的同时 ,两国在一系列国际问题上仍存在分歧。美印战略伙伴是暂时现象 ,还是会进一步走向战略同盟 ?这值得我们关注和准备必要的应对措施。     

Injustice and the New World Order: an anthropological perspective on “terrorism” in India

This article presents biographies of three activists of the Student Islamic Movement of India (SIMI). Following 9/11, the Indian state banned SIMI for fomenting “terrorism”, “sedition” and “destroying Indian nationalism”. Of the three SIMI activists, Qasim Omar had spent 30 months in prison and Samin Patel, a US citizen of Indian origin, 27 months. Both these prominent SIMI leaders were charged with denigrating the photo of India’s flag and making provocative speeches. I interviewed them after their release. The third was an ordinary (non-office bearer) activist. Drawing on their biographies, I argue that Islamist radicalism or “terrorism” should be construed politically. Contrary to the prevalent politics, the pivot of which is bare rationality of profit and loss and ruthless pursuit of national interests, the kind of politics SIMI actors enact is best understood as a profound act of ethics manifest in the quest for justice. As such, they are not enemies of freedom, democracy and human rights; on the contrary, activists such as those in SIMI strive to rescue freedom and human rights from being monopolised and molested by the mighty few and thereby truly universalise them. Against methodological nationalism, I take the post-World War II global order as the human condition in which to situate the radical politics of these young SIMI activists.     

国际安全态势分析与预测(2016-2017年)

2017年最新出版的《国际安全态势感知指数》对世界上169个国家的安全态势进行了排名,从而为理解当今的全球安全问题提供了一个崭新的视角。同2016年版的《国际安全态势感知指数》相比,新版的感知指数在变量选取上有了较大的突破,其主要特点是对变量的数量进行了精简,将变量数量从先前的五十余个缩减到十余个,并且针对不同国家的不同特点选择具有针对性的变量,以求更加准确地反映不同国家对于安全的客观需求。同时,2017年的研究报告实现了变量的动态调整,即坚持在开放的数据源当中随机挖掘数据,以保证随机变量可以不断涌入,从而实现可以剔除冗余变量以及寻找最紧密的关联关系。通过定量分析,可以发现2016年各个国家的安全态势相比于2015年又发生了一些变化。全球整体安全形势渐趋恶化,欧洲正在滑入“恐怖深渊”;发达国家普遍进入“多事之秋”,西亚北非深陷全球冲突“风暴中心”;全球恐怖主义由传统活动区域向周边国家扩散,“独狼式”攻击成为恐怖攻击新潮流。在此背景下,美国、俄罗斯等国家的排名变化较为明显,西欧地区的安全态势呈现出恶化的趋势。     

核安全全球治理:历史、现实与挑战

核安全风险超越国界,可能跨越地区,甚至影响全球,因而核安全的治理必然是全球治理。各国对核安全风险的评估、核安全意识的养成是一个演进的过程,与此同步的是核安全全球治理。核安全全球治理经历了冷战、冷战结束和九一一事件以来的三个发展阶段,治理的主要内容随着国际安全形势的变化而调整。冷战期间的核安全全球治理主要体现为建立国际原子能机构以管理核能的和平利用,防范无核国家以发展民用核能为由发展核武器,签署和履行与核安全密切相关的国际公约、培育核安全的意识;冷战结束初期,国际原子能机构强化了保障监督能力,多边出口管制机制加强了对涉核物项出口的管控,国家间展开了实质性的核安全合作;九一一恐怖袭击之后,核安全全球治理呈现加速度的趋势,国际社会日益形成核安全共识,全球性制度建设加速,多边合作加强。经过多年努力,核安全全球治理的制度建设取得了显著成就,双边和多边国际合作得到实质性推动,但核安全全球治理仍然面临如何有效减少核材料存量、如何推动相关国家切实履行国家责任等挑战。     

印度与东盟军事与安全合作试析

印度与东盟的军事与安全合作日趋频繁，合作层次不断提高，印度在东南亚地区的军事影响力正在逐年增强。但由于印度自身的政治、经济和军事实力仍然有限，印度与东盟军事、安全合作存在许多制约因素。