Adding immigrants to microsimulation models

Forecasts of the financial status of Social Security's Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) programs and forecasts of the effects of various OASDI policy options on Americans would be improved if information about the earnings and labor force behavior of various population subgroups were included in projection models. Focusing on the projection of immigrant earnings, this article proffers a conceptual basis for incorporating immigration into microsimulation models. Key results from research on immigrant earnings, as described in the first article in this trilogy--"Research on Immigrant Earnings"--are linked to methods for forecasting individual earnings in microsimulation models. The research on immigrant earnings also inspires new methods for forecasting earnings in microsimulation models as well as the projection of immigrant emigration. Forecasting immigrant earnings and emigration is discussed in the context of a "closed system"--that is, forecasts are only made for a given population, which is represented in the base sample of the microsimulation model. The third article in our trilogy--"Incorporating Immigrant Flows into Microsimulation Models"--explores how to project immigrant earnings in the context of an "open system," which includes future immigrants.     

Research on immigrant earnings

As the first in a trio of pieces devoted to incorporating immigration into policy models, this review of research on immigrant earnings trajectories brings to light several findings. Controlling for demographic and human capital characteristics, immigrants often start their U.S. lives at substantially lower earnings, but experience faster earnings growth than natives with comparable years of education and experience. The extent to which the earnings trajectories of immigrants and natives differ varies by country of origin, with the source-country's level of economic development being a key determinant of the size of the U.S.-born/ foreign-born difference. The earnings profiles of immigrants from economically developed countries such as Japan, Canada, or Western Europe resemble those of U.S. natives who are of the same age and education level. In contrast, the earnings of immigrants from developing nations tend to start well below those of U.S. natives with comparable education levels and experience, but rise more rapidly than their U.S. counterparts. Comparing the earnings profiles of immigrants of similar age, sex, and years of schooling, over time and across groups, a strong inverse relationship emerges between their initial earnings and their subsequent U.S. earnings growth. In other words, the lower (higher) the initial earnings are, the higher (lower) the earnings growth. These and other research results have important implications for the projection of immigrant earnings and emigration in microsimulation models, as discussed in the two articles following this one: (1) "Adding Immigrants to Microsimulation Models" and (2) "Incorporating Immigrant Flows into Microsimulation Models".     

Citizenship,enclaves and earnings: comparing two cool countries

This paper uses the Canadian 2006 Census and the Swedish 2006 register data to analyse the citizenship effect on the relative earnings of immigrants, using instrumental variable regression to control for citizenship acquisition. We ask: ‘Is there a citizenship effect and if any, in which country is it that we find the largest effect and for which immigrant groups?’ We add one further dimension, asking if the size of the co-immigrant population in the municipality has an effect on earnings. We find that the impact of citizenship acquisition is substantial in both Canada and Sweden. However, the place of birth of immigrants is important. In most cases, immigrant women in Sweden enjoy a higher citizenship premium than is the case for immigrant women in Canada. Amongst men the picture is more mixed. Most European groups receive a larger citizenship premium in Canada as compared to Sweden. Being in a city with more immigrants of the same background is better for earnings in Sweden than in Canada. However, being in a city with a lot of immigrants (regardless of origin) is better in Canada as compared to Sweden.     

Incorporating immigrant flows into microsimulation models

Building on the research on immigrant earnings reviewed in the first article of this series, "Research on Immigrant Earnings," the preceding article, "Adding Immigrants to Microsimulation Models," linked research results to various issues essential for incorporating immigrant earnings into microsimulation models. The discussions of that article were in terms of a closed system. That is, it examined a system in which immigrant earnings and emigration are forecast for a given population represented in the base sample in the microsimulation model. This article, the last in the series, addresses immigrant earnings projections for open systems--microsimulation models that include projections of future immigration. The article suggests a simple method to project future immigrants and their earnings. Including the future flow of immigrants in microsimulation models can dramatically affect the projected Social Security benefits of some groups.     

Amor,Que Piensas?: Spousal Political Socialization in Mexican Immigrant Communities

This article examines the role of spousal political socialization among Mexican immigrants in the United States. Political socialization literature has often dismissed the socializing influences of spouses or significant others due to a focus on native born respondents. In immigrant communities, however, spousal political socialization plays a more vital role given the presence of a non-native born spouse. The result is a distinct dynamic that influences immigrant political socialization in previously under-explored ways. I use the theory of multi-tiered membership to examine the interactions of spouses within Mexican households, and immigrants specifically, to explain their subsequent informal and formal membership in the US. I use quantitative data from the Developing Civic Actors survey to model these experiences. I hypothesize that Mexican origin households where one spouse is an immigrant will rely more heavily on their spouses for political information and communication, compared to native born Mexican origin or white respondents. Early findings indicate that immigrant parents already rely on informal and familial resources like their children, and they subsequently hold their spouse as an important source of political information. This indicates a possible predictive measure for understanding how spousal political socialization may in fact lead to more engaged citizenship.     

Information Shocks and the Take‐Up of Social Programs

The causes of participation in social programs have been studied extensively, with prominent roles found for program rules and benefits. A lack of information about these programs has been suggested as a cause of low participation rates among certain groups, but it is often difficult to distinguish between the role of information sharing and other features of a neighborhood, such as factors that are common to people of the same ethnicities or socioeconomic opportunities, or uniquely local methods of program implementation. We seek to gain new insight into the potential role of information flows by investigating what happens when information is disrupted. We exploit rich microdata from Florida vital records and program participation files to explore declines in Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) participation during pregnancy among foreign‐born Hispanics in the “information shock” period surrounding welfare reform. We identify how the size of these reductions is affected by having a high density of neighbors from the same place of origin. Specifically, we compare changes in WIC participation among Hispanic immigrants living in neighborhoods with a larger concentration of own‐origin immigrants to those with a smaller concentration of own‐origin immigrants, holding constant the size of the immigrant population and the share of immigrants in the neighborhood who are Hispanic. We find strong evidence that having a denser network of own‐origin immigrants mediated the information shock faced by immigrant women in the wake of welfare reform.     

Integrating Immigrants: Morality and Loyalty in US Naturalization Practice

The issues of how to integrate immigrants and ensure the integrity of citizenship have become passionate topics of public discourse and policy debate in recent years in a number of immigrant receiving countries. Behind these debates are often unarticulated questions about how to ensure loyalty to the state and to particular conceptions of national identity among prospective citizens. These issues have been explicitly debated in the United States since the enactment of the first naturalization law in 1790, which requires that immigrants who wish to become citizens demonstrate their good moral character and attachment to the country. This article explores the ways that these morality and loyalty requirements have historically been applied and institutionalized in US naturalization practice, particularly through government sponsored immigrant education programs. It does so first through a discussion of the interpretation of these laws, and then through a case study of the original 1914 Bureau of Naturalization initiative that resulted in the incorporation of these laws into naturalization testing and citizenship education for immigrants. It concludes with a discussion of the implications of this history for current debates in both the United States and elsewhere on immigrant integration.     

Growing numbers,growing influence? A comparative study of policy congruence between parliaments and citizens of immigrant origin

A large set of research argues that policy responsiveness towards excluded societal factions such as minorities of immigrant origin improves through the presence of group members in parliaments because they bring forward different perspectives during parliamentary debates. This article challenges the straightforwardness of this relationship by demonstrating that the ability of legislators with immigrant backgrounds to shift the parliamentary agenda closer to the ideal points of citizens of foreign descent is conditional on two factors. First, representatives of immigrant origin need incentives to cultivate a personal vote, and second, their overall proportion of parliamentary seats has to remain rather marginal to influence the policy positions of the majority of representatives. The article's findings thus stress the importance of studying the contextual factors that moderate the relationship between group belonging and the capacity to promote group interests. Empirical evidence from nine European Democracies between 2002 and 2014 substantiates this argument – so that the analysis constitutes the first cross‐country comparison in a research field that has so far been dominated by single country studies. By using policy congruence as a measure for responsiveness, this article shifts the focal point from individual representatives’ attempts to promote the interests of citizens with immigrant backgrounds towards effectiveness of these endeavours.     

Immigrants in the Political Process

Immigrants, who comprise a growing group in many European countries, are usually under-represented in the political process. Sweden's immigrant policy, with its far-reaching social and political rights, liberal citizenship laws and respect for cultural differences, is often regarded as an exemplary model of how to integrate immigrants in society. The 1975 electoral reform in Sweden gave immigrants the opportunity to become active in the democratic process by allowing foreign citizens to vote in local political elections. This article examines the political and organizational participation of immigrants. The findings indicate widespread and significant exclusion and under-representation of immigrants in political and organizational life. We argue that immigrant political participation is best understood in terms of a tension between individual characteristics and institutional and organizational factors. In particular, the long-term exclusion of large numbers of immigrants from labor related organizations is shown to be an important obstacle to their further social and political participation.     

Black and immigrant labor force participation in America

Model minority theory frequently ascribes blame for the socioeconomic condition of African Americans to their own lack of positive work-related attitudes. Data from the 1990 Census of Population are used to assess the relative work situation of three major Black groups in America–African Americans, African, and Caribbean immigrants. The findings are not supportive of the hypothesis that African Americans are less motivated to work relative to their Black immigrant counterparts. Rather, a key finding is that the employment status of Black natives and immigrants is a function of the income or money available to individuals. Once Blacks are employed, there are no differences in work intensity between African Americans and their African and Caribbean immigrant counterparts.     

Explaining Different Trajectories in Immigrant Political Integration: Moroccans and Turks in Amsterdam

This article examines why the political integration and representation of ethnic minority groups may develop along different paths. Taking Amsterdam as a case study, it compares two of the city’s most predominant immigrant groups: Turks, who have taken a group-based incorporation strategy – visible in this group’s dense organisational infrastructure – and Moroccans, who have followed a more individualist assimilation strategy. The distinct trajectories have produced a relatively high proportion of Turkish-origin elected officials, while individuals of Moroccan origin feature more prominently in executive office, exercising power over day-to-day decisions. The article proposes that whereas features of the electoral system determine which opportunities exist for immigrants to participate in the political process, it is the structure of an immigrant group that affects the ability of members to seize such opportunities. Furthermore, it shows how political parties and party elites act as gatekeepers and facilitators of immigrants’ political participation.     

Immigrant-Serving Non-profit Voter Mobilization in Off-Cycle Elections: An Institutional Explanation of Differential Political Participation Patterns

Abstract

Immigrants in the USA tend to vote less than other groups, and immigrants vote at even lower levels during off-cycle elections. The aim of this article is to analyse whether these same patterns can be observed in the electoral activities of non-profit organizations that represent immigrants. I argue for a theory of reflective non-profit representation to explain how immigrant-serving organizations make decisions about electoral activities. By analysing original survey data collected in 2012 and 2013, the article finds that immigrant-serving non-profits are less likely to mobilize immigrants in off-cycle compared to on-cycle elections, and less likely to mobilize voters than organizations serving other communities. These findings suggest that immigrant voting could increase if non-profits increased their political involvement, reimagined their identities to include politics as a part of their mission, and generated new revenues to support these activities.     

Islam,immigration and group recognition 1

Islam generally, and Muslim immigrant communities in particular, have recently been targeted for criticism by Western academics and in popular Western media. This article explores the substance of these criticisms and weighs them against the beliefs and practices of Muslim immigrants in Western liberal democracies. The article addresses three distinct questions. First, what sorts of cultural adaptations is it reasonable for liberal democratic states and societies to expect immigrants to make, and what kinds of adaptation is it unreasonable to demand? Second, how vulnerable are Islamic beliefs and practices to the criticisms commonly leveled against them in the name of liberal democracy and gender equality? Finally, how strong are the parallels between the claims for political recognition and accommodation that issue from immigrant cultural communities and the claims for recognition and inclusion that issue from groups that have historically been marginalized within liberal democratic societies? Although the authors do not dismiss the notion that there may be tensions between the core commitments of liberal democratic societies and some Islamic practices, they conclude that these tensions are exaggerated by Western writers. Muslim communities generally pose no greater challenge to liberal societies than do other religious and immigrant communities. Western writers should be chary of rejecting their claims to toleration and accommodation too swiftly.     

Welfare Nationalism and Popular Support for Raising the Child Allowance: Evidence from a Norwegian Survey Experiment

Refugee and labour immigration have placed the issue of immigrants’ access to welfare benefits high on the political agenda. This article explores how voter preferences for increases in the child benefit change when respondents are reminded about immigrants’ access to benefits. The survey experiment shows that information about newly arrived immigrants’ access to child benefit has only a small impact on support for increasing the child allowance. By contrast, information about labour migrants’ access to benefits for children living in another European Union country has a strong impact, and the observed sensitivity to this cue is not to the same extent confined to respondents who otherwise support welfare dualism.     

Controlling immigration? How regulations affect migration flows

The aim of this article is to investigate whether or not and how immigration policies affect immigration flows. Such policy impacts have hardly been investigated so far as the necessary data is lacking. For the first time, two new datasets are combined to systematically measure immigration policies and bilateral migration flows for 33 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) destination countries from over 170 countries of origin over the period 1982–2010. The study finds that immigration policies have an important effect on immigration flows and thus that states are able to control their borders. To some extent the control capacities depend on other factors in attracting or deterring immigrants. The article shows that the deterrence effect of restrictive immigration policies increases when unemployment rates are high. It appears that, in these contexts, states start to care more about effectively protecting their national economy. Moreover, policies are more effective for migrant groups from former colonies or when the stock of this group is already high in a destination country. In these circumstances, information on border regulations are more easily disseminated, which in turn makes them more effective.     

Immigrant Engagement in Participatory Budgeting in New York City

Participatory Budgeting (PB) is a welcome experiment in participatory democracy in New York City (NYC), one that could produce greater civic engagement of traditionally marginalized groups and more equitable resource distribution. By engaging immigrants, PB aims to affirm and elevate their voices, help develop their civic capacities, and promote their political participation and community empowerment. During the past four years, participation by immigrants (foreign-born residents) in New York City’s PB process (PBNYC) has steadily increased, growing from nineteen to twenty-eight percent of all PB voters. Yet, immigrant participation lags compared to their numbers, with great variation among PB districts. Using a mixed methods approach that incorporates surveys of and interviews with immigrant community members, staff at immigrant serving community-based organizations, and City Council staff, this article aims to parse out the logistical and affective barriers to participation immigrants face in PB districts and how PBNYC’s design attempts to circumvent said barriers and facilitate participation. Ultimately, our study reveals a complex mix of promising practices and structural constraints involved in working toward PB’s “inclusive” and “equitable” aims.     

Re-thinking urban citizenship for immigrants from a policy perspective: the case of Barcelona

This article proposes that the role of cities in immigrant integration be reconsidered through the prism of urban citizenship, looking at how local policies co-regulate immigrants’ status, rights and identity. It argues that urban citizenship connects two dominant understandings of citizenship, as city governments are under pressure to reconcile the normative perspective of formal membership of the state with the claims for rights expressed by excluded parts of the urban citizenry. A case study of an inclusive way of regulating citizenship in Barcelona illustrates how a citizenship perspective can cast light on the specific ways in which cities regulate immigrant citizenship in interaction with higher levels of government, and highlights some of the levers cities possess to modify the boundaries between inclusion and exclusion of immigrants locally.     

Who is a ‘Deserving’ Immigrant? An Experimental Study of Norwegian Attitudes

Previous research demonstrates that opposition to immigration increases when immigrant groups are seen as economically non‐viable and burdened with distinctive and unassimilable cultural practices. However, no research to date has investigated the parallel relationship between attributes of individuals and willingness to admit these individuals as legal immigrants. This study examines Norwegians’ evaluations of individual immigrants. Using an experimental design, specific attributes of immigrants are manipulated, making them appear more or less likely to make an economic contribution and more or less likely to assimilate into Norwegian culture. It is found that the decision to admit individuals is predominantly influenced by the immigrant's economic background. Norwegians are especially supportive of highly skilled immigrants. The immigrant's race is also relevant, but the effect of racial cues varies between men and women. Immigrants with an Afrocentric appearance are more likely to be rejected by men, but accepted by women. The article recommends that immigration researchers measure public support for immigration at both the policy and individual immigrant levels.     

Being Canadian: Citizenship in Canada

This article analyses interviews conducted in 1996–97 with 78civic leaders in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. In part, the interviews focused on what it means to respondents to be Canadian. Among the respondents were 36 immigrants and 23 persons not of European ancestry, including four aboriginal people. The article addresses the challenge of creating a sense of citizenship—a moral sense of belonging—among a population of increasingly diverse origin in anglophone Canada. The argument proposed is that despite the diverse ancestral and geographical origins of the inhabitants of the country, Canadianness exists. Canadians, both native‐born and immigrants, recognize themselves as Canadians. They do so because they recognize the opportunities and freedoms available to them in Canada, and the day‐to‐day respect they enjoy. To be Canadian and recognized as such by others is meaningful. Even very recent immigrants do not define themselves primarily as members of their ancestral cultural communities. Spinner's concept of pluralistic integration seems a better way to describe Canadian society than the popular concept of multiculturalism.     

Taiwanizing female immigrant spouses and materializing differential citizenship

Taiwan holds the Asian record for the proportion of families that involve so-called ‘foreign brides’. Marriage migration has brought close to half a million immigrant spouses into the country over the past decades. Most of these women come from Mainland China, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. This paper discusses how the Taiwanese state and society have actively pursued the integration of immigrant spouses since 2002, with a set of policies that acknowledge the massive migration of ‘foreign brides’ and the impact of this phenomenon on society. It argues that the attempt to integrate new immigrants is fraught with a discourse that serves to further stigmatize these women, discriminate against them, and, therefore, create an ‘Other’ that is used to erect the ideology of nation-building in Taiwan. The paper provides a critical analysis of policies, academic discourse and NGOs fundraising strategies to show how these institutions reinforce the idea that immigrant spouses are problematic and, therefore, need to be ‘Taiwanized’. This results in a system of differential legal and social citizenship in which immigrant spouses are at the bottom of the social hierarchy in Taiwanese society.