Confronting Coup Risk in the Latin American Left

Military coups d'état have become dramatically less frequent in Latin America over the past 20 years, leading many analysts to conclude that the risk of coups in the region today is negligible. Yet we observe that a particular subset of presidents in the region—namely, those commonly associated with the radical left—pursue a wide range of “coup-proofing” behaviors, primarily in the way that they manage relations with their militaries, but also in their political rhetoric. Our goal in this article is to explain why some Latin American presidents spend precious resources on coup-proofing. First, even as we demonstrate that coup activity is significantly diminished across the region as a whole, we offer evidence to suggest that coup risk is quite real in countries with radical left presidents. Second, we identify several specific strategies that these presidents have pursued to minimize coup risk. We explain the coup-proofing rationale behind each of these strategies and document their use in Venezuela, Bolivia, and Ecuador. Third, we show that no similar set of strategies or policies has been pursued by moderate leftist or more conservative presidents in the region. We infer from these empirical patterns that radical left presidents have undertaken substantial efforts to maintain military allegiance and to mitigate coup risk precisely because they recognize the possibility of military intervention. In our conclusion, we suggest that these strategies may confer a short-term benefit for the presidents who implement them, but they are likely to have negative consequences for the long-term stability of democratic institutions.     

Latin American environmentalism: Comparative views

This article examines three common generalizations from the literature on Latin American environmentalism. The validity of these generalizations, structured as hypotheses, is tested with four case studies from Costa Rica, Mexico, Venezuela, and Brazil. The first generalization is that tensions arise between international environmentalists principally concerned with wildlands conservation and national environmentalists engaged in a broader array of local and domestic issues including urban environmental quality and access to natural resources. The second is that environmental groups in Latin America are elitist in structure and participant base. The third is that the particular tactics employed by environmentalists will be closely tied to the relative openness of their nation’s political system. Through a cross-disciplinary case study approach we find the first two hypotheses quickly break down upon closer inspection, while the third is supported. We suggest a modified framework for interpreting environmental activism in the region, one that weights the role of the state as well as the competing strategies employed by grassroots, private voluntary, and professionalized environmental groups. Latin American environmentalism is highly diverse, presenting many faces in different time periods and different countries. Developing one general theory of environmentalism in Latin America is impossible, but more specific categorizations of the middle range may be achievable.     

Distributional effects of dollarisation: the Latin American case

Over the past two years Ecuador, El Salvador and Guatemala have adopted the US dollar as a legal currency in their countries. Several other Latin American countries, including Argentina, are currently discussing dollarisation. In this policy paper we look at the existing evidence for answers to two basic questions. First, under what general circumstances might dollarisation make sense? Second, are there clearly differentiated winners and losers from dollarisation and, if so, can we identify them, so that policy can take these political economy factors into consideration? Our review of the evidence demonstrates that there are consistent patterns of distributional effects, both positive and negative, from the choice of exchange rate regime. These effects are presently not considered in exchange rate policy decision making, but should be. While the effects are not as pronounced as those from major trade liberalisation agreements, they are significant. Ways to cushion the effects of exchange rate regime choice should be considered in the future by policy makers. Moreover, we find that dollarisation is embedded in the politics of the region. Dollarisation is often sold as a substitute for the deeper institutional reforms needed to improve economic performance and distribution in Latin America.     

历史与现实中的拉丁美洲主义

拉丁美洲主义的形成与发展 在15世纪末16世纪初,西班牙和葡萄牙殖民主义者用“火和剑”征服了美洲,将其变为殖民地。1635年和1647年法国殖民主义者又将美洲的瓜德罗普和马提尼克分别变为殖民地。西、葡、波殖民主义者皆讲带有拉丁语词干的拉丁语系语言。这些殖民主义者力图巩固在已占领地区的统治地位,竭力传播其宗教(主要是天主教),推广其拉丁语词干的拉丁语系语言,故将其占领的美洲称之为拉丁美洲。而西班牙殖民主义者在美洲国家中占领的殖民地     

Fostering the post-development debate: the Latin American concept of tecnologia social

This essay revisits the historical development of a concept – tecnologia social – as one avenue for discussing alternatives to post-development, arguing that the Western-based historical path of technology development is one of the main sources of growing human impoverishment, social inequalities and economic dependency. The concept of tecnologia social points towards political processes that create opportunities to redefine the arrangements among social groups, artefacts and methods used in everyday life, particularly for production and consumption. Because the post-development debate has been criticised for formulating a sound and strong critique to mainstream development but failing to propose concrete empirical alternatives, we seek to foster the debate through the Latin American concept of tecnologia social.     

拉美政坛上的女总统

1974年庇隆夫人当选为阿根廷总统,使得拉美地区成为全世界第一个女总统的诞生地,从此揭开了拉美女总统的政治篇章。算上2010年10月31日当选的巴西总统迪尔玛·罗塞夫,拉美政坛先后出现过11位女总统。本文对现任三位女总统作一一介绍。     

Gender,Sexuality and the Latin American Left: testing the transformation

This article examines the extent of change under Latin American left governments by assessing their actions on women's and lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) rights. To provide a historical context, it first offers an overview of the relationship between feminist movements and the left. It then employs a four-country comparison of Brazil, Bolivia, Chile and Venezuela on women's socioeconomic status; feminist state–society relations; women's representation in national decision-making positions; legislation on violence against women; reproductive rights; and sexual rights. It concludes that standard political and economic divisions among the cases do not explain their response to the demands of feminists and LGBT activists. While governments have improved women's status and inclusion, the transformation of gender and sexual power relations remains unfinished.     

Transnational Capital,the US State and Latin American Trade Agreements

This paper examines the role of US-based transnational corporations in advancing trade, investment, regulatory and intellectual property rights provisions within NAFTA and DR–CAFTA. I explore the linkages between US firms, the US state and investment patterns in Mexico, Central America and the Dominican Republic in order to develop a framework for understanding the political economy of these regional trade agreements. I locate the timing of each of these agreements within the context of the goals of a transnational interest bloc that includes US-based transnational firms, US state officials and regional business interests and state bureaucracies in Latin America, with each trying to utilise regional agreements as a substitute for failed multilateral initiatives as well as a springboard for advancing a more aggressive set of protections for investors within bilateral investment treaties. In order to determine the extent to which transnational firms based in the USA have influenced these trade agreements, I explore three interrelated aspects of business influence: the extent to which transnational firms with investment interests in Mexico and Central America were involved in organisations that had regular access to key US policy makers; the historical development of a transnational interest bloc that has linked US firms and the US state to transnational capital and state bureaucracies in Mexico, Central America and the Dominican Republic; and the extent to which the same group of transnational firms has been attempting without success to advance a policy agenda in the WTO that incorporates many of the provisions of NAFTA and DR–CAFTA. The failure of this transnational interest bloc to effect substantial changes in WTO policies has led the bloc to rely on regional trade agreements to pursue its interests.     

门罗主义——美国拉美政策的基石

门罗主义是美国政府制定拉美政策的基本依据和指导性方针.历届美国总统谈及拉美政策时,都会援引门罗主义的基本原则.自1823年<门罗宣言>发表到波尔克任期内门罗主义的初步确立,迄今已有100多年的历史.本文将论述从<门罗宣言>到门罗主义的历史演变过程,探讨门罗主义对美国拉美政策的影响,并分析门罗主义对美国拉美政策产生影响的原因.     

The ownership advantage in Latin American FDI: A sectoral study of us direct investment in Mexico

This article develops a model which tests the hypothesis that sectoral FDI flows from the United States to Mexico over a four‐year period can be explained by the ownership advantages of US multinationals. Theoretical developments in the concept of ‘ownership advantage’ are used to guide the formulation of the research. The findings suggest that direct investment into US MNEs’ affiliates in Mexico is driven by benefits derived from embedded human knowledge, technology‐embodied advantages, and possibly from scale advantages. Local R&D is negatively associated with FDI.     

The free-market city: Latin American urbanization in the years of the neoliberal experiment

We examine the evolution of Latin American cities in the last two decades of the twentieth century and in the first years of the twenty-first on the basis of comparable data from six countries comprising over 80 percent of the region’s population. These years correspond to the shift in hegemonic models of development in the region, from import-substitution industrialization to neoliberal “open markets” adjustment. We examine how the application of the new policies correlates with change patterns in four areas: urban systems and urban primacy; urban unemployment and informal employment; poverty and inequality; and crime, victimization, and urban insecurity. We present detailed analyses of each of these topics based on the latest available data for the six countries. We conclude that significant changes in patterns of urbanization have taken place in the region, reflecting, in part, the expected and unexpected consequences of the application of the new model of development. Implications of our findings for each of the four areas examined and for the future of the region are discussed. Alejandro Portes is department chair and Howard Harrison and Gabrielle Snyder Beck Professor of sociology, and director of the Center for Migration and Development at Princeton University. His current research focuses on the adaptation process of second-generation immigrants and the rise of transnational immigrant communities in the United States. Bryan R. Roberts is professor of sociology and C.B. Smith Chair in US-Mexico Relations at the University of Texas, Austin. His most recent work explores issues of develorment, globalization, immigration, and social policy in Latin America. Data on which this paper is based were collected by theLatin American Urbanization at the End of the Twentieth Century project, sponsored by the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation. We thank our collaborators and directors of country teams, without whom this study would not have been possible: Marcele Cerruti and Alejandro Grimson in Argentina; Licia Valladares, Bianca Freire-Medeiros, and Filippina Chinelli in Brazil; Guillermo, Wormald, Francisco Sabatini, Yasna Contreras and their collaborators in Chile; Marina Ariza and Juan Manuel Ramirez in Mexico; Jaime Joseph and the Centro Alternativa research team in Peru; and Ruben Kaztman, Fernando Filgueira, Alejandro Retamoso and their collaborators in Uruguay. We would also like to thank Carolina Flores and Lissette Aliaga for their assistance in assembling and analyzing survey data-bases from the six countries. We also thank anonymous referees of this journal for their comments. Responsibility for the contents is exclusively ours.     

Neo-extractivism and the new Latin American developmentalism: the missing piece of rural transformation

What, if anything, is actually new about political and economic transformation in twenty-first century Latin America? Here we explore how ostensibly ‘new’ policies are being built on two ‘old’ foundations that may be mutually exclusive. These are ‘extractivism’ and ‘developmentalism’, concepts that have been used rather loosely to describe current economic policies. The new developmentalism, however, may not only be contradicted by extractivism; it may be more constrained than its predecessor by fortified capitalist class interests and new global conditions. Moreover, it pays little attention to the employment-generating potential of rural areas or to the agricultural sector.