俄格冲突剖析

2008年8月发生的俄格军事冲突有着复杂的历史、现实和地缘政治等多种原因，现今深层次因素是俄美在高加索和中亚地带的角力与博弈。冲突及其引起的国际反应表明，俄罗斯已有足够的政治影响力和军事实力在高加索和中亚地区发挥其传统作用。俄格冲突对独联体今后的发展、对俄格双方与北约的关系、对俄欧及俄美关系都将产生广泛而深远的影响。     

巴以冲突剖析

阿拉伯国家与以色列之间的冲突从1948年第一次中东战争算起,已延续54年。其间还曾爆发三次战争。大国对中东的争夺是该问题产生并长期得不到解决的重要原因。巴勒斯坦问题是阿以冲突的核心。因巴以分歧严重,特别是美国偏袒以色列,不能公正调解,致使双方至今未能实现和解,     

Competition≠Conflict

Fu: The above discussions clearly show that the cooled relations between the United States and Russia lie in the basic factor that the political development in Russia has failed to meet American wishes. The catalytic factor of such relations probably could be found in the issues of strategic competition that confirm with "the cold peace. " Of course, we may discuss whether on earth there is such a competition. If there is,then what are Russia's conditions and considerations in the competition? The competitions between America and Russia are different from that between the United States and the Soviet Union in the Cold War years, but they can also be seen in geostrategic competition as well as in the means of strategic competition.     

Conflict Analysis and Conflict Resolution: Divorce or Friendly Mediation?

The interests, needs, and academic practices of conflict analysis scholars are often fundamentally at odds with those of conflict resolution scholar practitioners. In this essay, I make suggestions for new academic arrangements that could allow both groups to be productive and empowered in their theory building and teaching and also have positive impacts on the development of students and on global institutions and conflict environments.     

Resolving Conflict Across Languages

English is increasingly used as an indispensable interlanguage, the commonthird language of non-native speakers, in international negotiations.In technical or commercial talks, where interlocutors share a stock ofexpert knowledge, semantic problems are relatively easily overcome. Inemotive and complex negotiations to resolve protracted international conflict,however, intriguing problems of interpretation arise. Though interlocutorsspeak in English, they are unlikely to think or work in English.Back home the political debate is conducted in the mother tongue. Thus thesemantic fields, the full range of meanings and connotations, of keyabstract concepts at the heart of the negotiation may not be conveyed intranslation. The ill-fated Syrian-Israeli peace talks are drawn upon to exemplifythe argument.     

Russia-Georgia Conflict and Beyond

Yet another Post 9/11 historical event indicating a significant turning point in the Post-Cold War era, Russia-Georgia conflict represents a remarkable change in the international strategy of a resurgent Russia. It also signifies that former Soviet republics are still groping for a new identity and that a new round of realignment will persist in the vast Eurasia region. The conflict reveals declining U.S. global control, flawed European integration, and NATO embarrassment. To a certain extent, it exposes chaos brought about by international nonpolarity and world governance vacuum. It also highlights what serious consequences can a double standard inflict on the principles of international law. A reasonable arrangement for global security and economic growth is therefore challenging the resolve and wisdom of international strategists. Actually fierce geopolitical rivalry for energy resources is at work behind the Russia-Georgia conflict. This will further compound the international energy strategic environment.     

Attachment Styles, Conflict Perception, and Adolescents' Strategies of Coping with Interpersonal Conflict

In this study, we examined the relationships between and among adolescents' attachment styles, conflict perceptions, and strategies for coping with conflicts with their peers. The study participants were 146 pupils at a junior high school who completed self-report questionnaires about their attachment styles (secure, anxious, or avoidant), conflict coping styles (avoiding, dominating, obliging, compromising, and integrating), and conflict perceptions (positive or negative), as well as social and academic status and the frequency with which they and their friends were involved in conflicts.
We found strong, statistically significant correlations between attachment style, coping strategy, and conflict perception. Generally, participants whose secure attachment scores were higher reported that they held more positive attitudes toward conflict, used more cooperative strategies to cope with conflicts, and were involved in conflicts less often; they also seemed to be less obliging and more dominating in their coping strategies. Avoidant attachment adolescents in our study displayed more negative conflict perceptions and made greater use of dominating strategies.
We also found that participants' conflict perceptions mediated the relationship between their attachment styles and coping styles. Because it is generally easier to change attitudes than it is to change attachment styles, which are more fixed, our findings suggest that changing adolescents' conflict perceptions, through school curricula, for example, may be an effective way to improve their ability to cope with conflict.     

Conflict management and conflict resolution

In examining constructive responses to the problems caused by violent ethnic conflict a distinction is often made between the ‘management’ and ‘resolution’ approaches. Indeed, they are often defined so as to make them incompatible with each other. The basic assumptions upon which the differences between these two approaches are based are analysed, and the weaknesses of each are explored. Finally, the assumption of basic incompatibility is questioned, because it is generally unhelpful in promoting conflict resolution; and an attempt is made to show how the two approaches can be combined by introducing the concept of peace‐keeping (management) and peace‐making and peace‐building (resolution).     

Institutional Similarity and Interstate Conflict

This paper makes two arguments. First, the political and economic institutions of a state affect that state's foreign policy preferences. Second, dyads with similar political and economic institutions are less likely to experience conflict than other types of dyads. After developing the logic of these arguments, I create measures of political and economic institutional similarity and test the hypotheses against the empirical record. The empirical analysis supports the argument that dyadic institutional similarity reduces the likelihood of conflict. The most noteworthy finding is that economic institutional similarity, even when the political institutions in a dyad are dissimilar, reduces the likelihood of militarized conflict.     

The Microfoundations of Diversionary Conflict

Diversionary conflict theorists assert that leaders can become more popular at home by pursuing conflict abroad. At first glance this claim appears counterintuitive in light of the hardship conflict often imposes on ordinary citizens. Relying on social identity theory (SIT), I deduce two hypotheses to help explain why conflict can increase popular support for leaders. First, conflict with an outgroup can make people identify more strongly with their ingroup. Second, stronger ingroup identification can lead to increased support for leaders inside the group. The second part of the article applies these two hypotheses to Russia's seizure of Crimea in early 2014. Attitude surveys show that the Crimea conflict increased national pride among Russians while support for President Vladimir Putin rose dramatically, and they suggest that the two processes were causally linked. These findings support the article's two hypotheses.     

俄格冲突与上海合作组织

俄格冲突给国际关系带来的变化使上海合作组织面临极为复杂的国际和地区环境。冲突除导致俄美对抗加剧给上海合作组织的发展方向提出严峻挑战外，当事国俄罗斯的对外政策、对前苏联地区（尤其是中亚地区）的政策及其对上海合作组织的政策态度，都会对上海合作组织产生深刻的影响。在新的形势下，上海合作组织应在区域经济合作上有所突破，在地区安全（如阿富汗局势）上有所作为，以保持该组织的良好状态和发展活力。     

Perspectives on Managing Intractable Conflict

The author, a Swedish diplomat with extensive experience in peace-keeping initiatives of the United Nations, focuses on two questions that are prominent in the management of intractable international conflict: (1) the interplay between short-term and long-term interventions; and (2) the growing "tools" that are available to mediators and other peacemakers, and how to judge their effectiveness. This brief essay is an adaptation of the author's informal remarks at the March, 2002 Hewlett Centers meeting in New York City.     

Sacred Time and Conflict Initiation

This article examines the manner in which rituals and symbols associated with sacred time have influenced conflict initiation. Leaders will time their attacks with sacred dates in the religious calendar if the force multiplying effects of sacred time, motivation, and vulnerability, outweigh its force dividing effects, constraint, and outrage. This is most likely to occur under three conditions: When conflict occurs across religious divides, when the sacred day is unambiguous in significance and meaning, and when rituals connected to that day will undermine an opponents’ military effectiveness. I illustrate these effects with twentieth century examples, including the timing of insurgent attacks in Iraq and the launching of the 1973 Arab-Israeli War. By exploring the pervasive effects of religious calendars on modern combat, I hope to redirect the focus of the study of religion and violence away from the narrow preoccupation with fundamentalism and terrorism and onto the much broader range of cases in which religion shapes secular conflict in multiple—and often unexpected—ways.     

黎以战火重燃的背后

正当伊朗核问题愈演愈烈、朝鲜用导弹试射回应国际社会的关切、哈马斯绑架以色列士兵导致猛烈的"夏雨"攻势之际,7月12日黎巴嫩真主党越过黎以边界袭击了正在巡逻的以色列边防军,打死7人,绑架2人.以色列随即作出了强烈反应,导弹、飞机、激光炮一齐奔向黎巴嫩,致使双方无辜的平民再次饱受祸殃,第六次中东战争的猜测充斥媒体.