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We have shown first, that if the electoral college was abolished the theoretically measured power of voters would increase and second, that in presidential elections the measure of voting power used does in fact have a highly significant impact on the decision as to whether or not to vote. Thus, the analysis predicts that the abolition of the electoral college would have a significant impact on voter participation. From a policy viewpoint, if we view participation in elections as desirable, this could be used as an argument in favor of direct election of the president. From a scientific viewpoint, we are able to make a strong and unambiguous prediction about the results of a (possible) future event from theoretical considerations. If the electoral college should be abolished, it will be possible to test our predictions. In addition, we have provided a further test of the rational behavior view of electoral participation and have shown that this model applies to presidential elections. Finally, we have shown that the theoretical measure of voting power does predict actual behavior. 相似文献
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The Electoral College has a measurable effect on the propensity of the rational voter to vote for the candidate he most prefers. The ‘slippage’ between the individual's articulated preference ordering and his actual vote is analyzed (using 1968 data) with respect to the strategic position of the voter in his state. The direction of the findings support the theoretically-derived propositions. Nevertheless, the low overall incidence of shifts and the reluctance of voters to shift from nationally-viable candidates demonstrates the overwhelming influence of the national electoral environment. 相似文献
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E. SPENCER WELLHOFER 《European Journal of Political Research》1991,19(4):425-439
Abstract. Four sources of variance are examined in the construction of ecological models of electoral behaviour: aggregation bias, contextual effects, temporal and spatial diffusion. The proper specification of both micro- and macro-models of political behaviour requires these four sources of variance to be taken into account. Ecological analysis may make valid inferences to individual behaviour once the models are properly specified. Electoral data for Britain between 1955 and October 1974 are used to test a series of structural equation models specifying developmental relationships between class and electoral behaviour and taking into account the four potential sources of bias. 相似文献
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Taken from an infinite set of divisors methods, the D’Hondt formula is the unique rule that maximizes the minimum number of seats for parties exceeding average size but not surpassing an absolute majority of the votes. This property is also shared, in the quota set of methods, by the Droop formula. At the same time, these two methods are those most commonly observed in practice. This paper relates the property stated to the observed facts. If parties try to maximize the minimum number of seats for a given share of votes, then the D’Hondt formula should be chosen. This choice is consistent with rational parties that make institutional choices in an uncertain environment. 相似文献
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Tse-hsin Chen 《Electoral Studies》2011,30(2):295-308
This paper tackles the micro-foundations of voting and addresses why proportional representation systems (PR) are associated with higher turnout than majoritarian systems (SMD). I argue that individual evaluations of the differential benefit in the calculus of voting are affected by spatial party competition framed by electoral institutions. Unlike PR, SMD constrains the number of parties and creates large centripetal forces for party competition, which reduces the perceived benefits of voting. A citizen’s voting propensity is related to the distance between her preferred policy position and those of her most- and least-favored parties. I use multilevel modeling to analyze individual voting decisions structured by aggregate variables across 64 elections. The empirical findings confirm the argument and the mechanism holds both in established and non-established democracies. 相似文献
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Recent interpretations of British politics have moved from the social and political homogeneity thesis to acknowledgment of Britain as a multinational and multiethnic state. An ‘ethnic marginals’ argument even contends that immigrant groups have played a crucial role in the outcome of recent general elections. This paper tests the electoral impact of different immigrant groups by matching the results of the 1981 Census by parliamentary constituency to the results of the 1983 general election. Immigrant groups collectively and individually are found to have almost no net effect on party voting patterns, but a substantial impact, largerly negative, on turnout. This evidence does not support the ethnic marginals argument. Although Britain is a multi-ethnic society, political cleavages not yet based on ethnic lines. 相似文献
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Attila Tasnádi 《Public Choice》2008,134(3-4):293-305
The Hungarian mixed-member electoral system, adopted in 1989, is one of the world’s most complicated electoral systems, and, as this paper demonstrates, it suffers from the “population paradox.” In particular, the governing coalition may lose as many as 8 seats either by getting more votes or by the opposition obtaining fewer votes on each territorial list. 相似文献
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David Hirschmann 《公共行政管理与发展》1998,18(1):23-36
This article's primary focus is on improving techniques of crisis management of electoral assistance. In so doing it intends to contribute to a more systematic sharing of information about lessons learned and possible responses to the pressure of providing electoral support when time is short. It is therefore concerned with situations in which there are not only the usual large gaps between ideal and reality, a host of imperfections and uncertainties, a multiplicity of chains of command and conflicting agendas, a shortage of resources, and endless possibilities for genuine and crafted misunderstandings, but also a lack of time for analysis and preparation. The article looks at such ‘rushed’ electoral assistance from the perspective of the ‘manager’; this is a term that will serve as shorthand for a hypothetical electoral assistance manager in an international governmental or non-governmental donor agency who is given responsibility for managing the assistance but is usually not part of the political or policy-making office of his or her embassy or agency. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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The electoral consequences of the Great Recession are analysed in this article by combining insights from economic voting theories and the literature on party system change. Taking cues from these two theoretical perspectives, the impact of the Great Recession on the stability and change of Western, Central and Eastern European party systems is assessed. The article starts from the premise that, in order to fully assess the impact of the contemporary crisis, classic economic voting hypotheses focused on incumbent parties need to be combined with accounts of long‐term party system change provided by realignment and dealignment theories. The empirical analysis draws on an original dataset of election results and economic and political indicators in 30 European democracies. The results indicate that during the Great Recession economic strain was associated with sizable losses for incumbent parties and an increasing destabilisation of Western European party systems, while its impact was significantly weaker in Central and Eastern European countries, where political rather than economic failures appeared to be more relevant. In line with the realignment perspective, the results also reveal that in Western Europe populist radical right, radical left and non‐mainstream parties benefited the most from the economic hardship, while support for mainstream parties decreased further. 相似文献
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民族学本科专业的课程体系如何设置,是当前民族学本科专业建设的一个重要课题。以重庆三峡学院民族学本科专业为个例,探究了民族学本科专业应用类课程体系改革的原则,分析了民族学本科专业应用类课程体系的设置现状和存在的问题,在此基础上,提出了该类课程的改革思路。 相似文献
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On the eve of Chile's transition from military to elected government, the outgoing regime enacted an electoral engineering project intended to conserve the constitutional order it encoded in 1980. An analysis of 1989 and 1993 general elections shows that the way votes are translated into seats favors, as intended, the second largest electoral block, the Chilean Right. This bias, along with the number of appointed senators and the special majorities required for constitutional amendments, gives the Right a minority veto power on any reform initiative. Moreover, the electoral system produces incentives for parties, candidates and voters that enhances this balance of power. The role that the electoral system plays in Chile therefore consolidates a limited form of democracy, rather than a liberal one. 相似文献
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PETER MAIR 《European Journal of Political Research》1993,24(2):121-133
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