Emergence of a Dominant Party System After Multipartyism: Theoretical Implications from the Case of the AKP in Turkey

This study aims to provide insights into how and why a dominant party system emerges after an era of multipartyism. Conceptualising the emergence phase of a dominant party system within the framework of Sartori's ‘predominant party system’, it elaborates the causal weight of different theories within the Turkish context through a comparative-historical analysis. Comparing the case of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) with the Justice Party (AP), it argues that perceptions of an incumbent's good economic performance and lack of centrifugal intra-party conflicts are two crucial factors that lead to the emergence of a dominant party system after multipartyism. Restrictive electoral rules and existing social cleavages, however, create a favourable setting for this outcome.     

Local Elections and the Turkish Voter: Looking for the Determinants of Party Choice

On 30 March 2014 Turkish voters elected their local (city) councillors. Their party preferences seem to indicate considerable correspondence with the national vote choices. So, do voters' choices in local elections differ from voters' party preferences at the national legislative elections? Based on previous research findings on Turkish voting behaviour, a list of hypotheses was compiled and tested, using binary logistic regression analyses and survey data collected immediately prior to the 2009 and 2014 local elections. The main findings are that the party lists are supported at the ballot boxes on the basis of the voters' party identification, ideological positions, and economic (dis)satisfaction, whether in national or local elections.     

经济危机、社会政策和经济发展:俄罗斯的经验

苏联解体之后,俄罗斯的社会政策保持了基本的连续性。尤其是叶利钦之后的俄罗斯,政府对社会保障和改善民生进行了巨大的投入,居民收入的增长和生活的改善非常明显。经济危机爆发之后,俄罗斯反危机政策更是赋予了社会政策以特别的使命,不仅缓解了危机的烈度,也起到了社会稳定器的作用。俄罗斯社会政策解决了国家长期发展需要面对的两个重要问题:一个是国家长期发展的人力资本积累问题,另一个是社会扩大再生产的可持续性问题。     

Comparing public attitudes on EU membership in candidate countries: the cases of Croatia,Macedonia and Turkey from 2004 to 2011

Past enlargements of the European Union (EU) have demonstrated that public attitudes on European integration can influence the course of accession processes. Beyond the literature on public EU support in member states and former candidates, the dynamics that shape public attitudes on EU membership within recent candidate countries have not been systematically examined. Analysing nine Eurobarometer (EB) surveys from 2004 to 2011, we argue that evaluations of EU membership in Croatia, Macedonia and Turkey are shaped by utilitarian considerations, belief in various political institutions as well as the fear of losing national identity. The economic crisis of 2008 has changed public opinion towards EU membership in all three countries, but Turkey appears to have been affected the most compared to Croatia and Macedonia.     

Explaining Crime in Buenos Aires: The Roles of Inequality, Unemployment, and Structural Change

Theoretical and empirical ambiguities suggest that it may be wrong to claim that unemployment increases crime, always and everywhere. Multiple regression results for Greater Buenos Aires during 1985–1997 show that inequality helps to explain crime, but unemployment does not. Moreover, unemployment fails to explain inequality. The discussion also raises some governability issues.     

中、韩、日三国女性战后教育、家庭地位变化及其异同

本文通过对中、韩、日三国女性现代社会地位的发展变化及其表现进行对比,着重分析随着二战结束和国际妇女运动的发展,三国女性在现代教育、家庭地位方面各自出现的变化以及造成这种变化的原因.     

苏东社会结构转型的社会学分析:阶级与阶层的视野

本文通过对苏联东欧社会变迁的实证分析,从社会结构分层的视角探索苏东社会转型的原因及过程.首先,高度工业化与城市化所导致的城乡社会结构的改变,是苏联东欧社会转型的根本原因,这是它与东亚、拉美等国或地区的社会转型具有深层关联性的一面.而农民迁移到城市的结构性流动所产生的复杂流动机制和分层机制,对苏东社会转型带来了直接的影响和冲击.苏东社会的中间阶层,其价值观、社会功能和政治态度对激进的制度转型具有不可低估的作用.其次,先是深层次的社会结构发生转变,即由农民向城市工人的阶级分层发生变化,然后才是表层的社会结构发生转变,即在市场化背景下,苏东社会的阶层分层因利益多元化而发生分化.苏东社会结构转型的具体过程明显地分为这两个阶段.     

Reevaluating the Taiwanese Democracy Movement: A Comparative Analysis of Opposition Organizations under Japanese and KMT Rule

This article reevaluates the first phase of Taiwan's democratization process (1914-1986) by exploring the similarities and differences between oppositional political organizations under Japanese and Kuomintang (KMT) rule. Employing a parallel structure, the article compares two distinct periods of time, 1914-1937 and 1977-1986. Including the Japanese colonial era in the evaluation of Taiwan's democratization process makes it possible to examine long-overlooked issues in Taiwan's political development such as the question of continuity and disjuncture. The author argues that the Japanese colonial era should be recognized as the starting point of Taiwanese political activities and the era of KMT one-party rule that followed as a re-colonization of Taiwan (lasting from 1947 until the early 1980s). The author's analysis reveals that (1) Taiwanese political opposition during both eras originated within rather than outside repressive political frameworks and that moderate opposition organizations emerged as the best possible reaction given those circumstances; (2) domestic organizations had a greater impact on the Taiwanese polity and society than those in exile; and (3) peaceful approaches were an important alternative to revolutionary movements. The author recounts the story of Taiwan's democratization process (until 1986) through the careers of two long-neglected moderate political activists, Lin Xiantang (1881-1956) and Kang Ningxiang (1938-).     

Mapping Civil Society in the Middle East: The Cases of Egypt,Lebanon and Turkey

This article comparatively assesses the meaning of civil society in Egypt, Lebanon and Turkey, by utilising the results of a study conducted among civil society actors. In recent decades, civil society has become integral to discussions of political liberalisation. At the same time, there is a growing rift between international democracy promotion through investment in civil society and the more critical literature on the relationship between the two. This article makes three contributions to these debates by comparing the actual experiences of civil society actors. First, it argues that the boundaries between states and civil societies are indeterminate, making it problematic to expect civil society organisations alone to become catalysts for regime transformation. Second, it shows that expectations of monolithic generation of civic values through civil society organisations do not reflect the actual experience of actors in this realm. Finally, it argues for taking into consideration other sources of mobilisation as potential contributors to meaningful political and social transformation.     

冷战后印度与东盟关系:调整、发展与趋势

20世纪90年代,适应大国崛起战略的需要,印度的"东向政策"出台。印度的"东向政策"推动了冷战后印度与东盟关系的调整与发展。冷战后的印度与东盟关系的发展呈现"双轮驱动"的态势,一方面印度发展与东盟国家的双边关系,另一方面,依托东盟相关机制,印度发展同东盟的多边关系。未来10-15年,印度与东盟关系的发展将是经贸与安全"齐头并进"的趋势。     

Employment Status,Social Capital,and Political Participation: A Comparison of Unemployed and Employed Youth in Geneva

Abstract: This paper examines the relationships between employment status, social capital, and the participation of young people in different kinds of political activities such as contacting, consumer, and protest activities. We focus on the role of social capital for political participation, addressing three related questions: Do unemployed and employed youth display different levels of social capital and political participation? Does social capital favor the political participation of unemployed and employed youth? Is social capital more important for unemployed youth than for employed youth? To address these questions we compare long‐term unemployed youth to regularly employed youth using original survey data. Our analysis suggests that the employment status has only a limited impact on political participation, affecting only consumer actions. In contrast, the social capital resulting from associational involvement is positively correlated to political participation. However, rather than countering the effect of exclusion from the labor market, it plays a similar role for unemployed youth and employed youth.     

"体制外"增长与"体制内"导向:从身份认定看中国留学生政策与侨务政策的关系

中国海外留学生的规模是引人注目的,中国的侨务政策是独特的.留学人员作为有着较强跨国"流动性"和一定"海外关系"的群体以及潜在或可能的移民,中国目前对于他们有着怎样的政策,这些政策与中国原有对待其海外移民的侨务政策又有着怎样的关联与不同?本文试图着眼于此,在概述和评估有关中国改革开放以来留学生派出及回国政策的同时,以身份认定作为探讨政策导向及其预期目标和影响的基本出发点,对中国留学生政策与侨务政策之间的关系作一初步考察.     

抗争的动力:新媒体与缅甸的民主化

自从2007年以来,缅甸社会政治发生了很大变化,其中新媒体起了很关键的作用。在2007年"藏红花"革命和2008年纳吉斯风灾中,缅甸人民利用互联网、移动电话等新媒体技术向世界传递了政府镇压和掩盖的真相。缅甸军人政府也明显感到了新媒体技术对其统治的压力,因此在2010年缅甸大选之前,严格控制国内的互联网。新媒体技术的出现虽然没有导致缅甸社会权力结构发生实质性的变化,但是新媒体技术打破了原来军政府对信息的封锁,逐渐促进了缅甸的民主化进程。     

The Women Preachers of the Secular State: The Politics of Preaching at the Intersection of Gender,Ethnicity and Sovereignty in Turkey

This article analyzes the politics of preaching in Turkey in the last decade by focusing on the appointment of women as preachers and vice-muftis by the Turkish Presidency of Religious Affairs (Diyanet), a state institution established for the protection of secular foundations through religious service. It asks what happens when women wearing headscarves become civil servants and give religious guidance in a secular state, which prohibits headscarves in public offices and schools. It shows that the context, the use and the interlocutors of preaching make ordinary religious activity a complicated political practice that interacts with gender, ethnicity and state sovereignty. It argues that exceptional integration of headscarved women into public offices would seem to be an achievement given the long lasting political activism of women over the headscarf, but in the final analysis it serves the sovereign power of the state, which aims to absorb both Islamist and Kurdish challenges by mobilizing women preachers.     

都市中的熟人社会--缅甸曼德勒华人的生存场域、社会交往及其与缅人的族群关系

曼德勒为缅甸第二大城市,它既是缅甸地理意义上的中心,也是缅北地区政治、经济与文化的中心。近年来,随着曼德勒华人的日益增多,华人与当地主体族群———缅人的关系成为曼德勒最重要的族群关系之一,而这种关系并非总是处于友好和谐的状态,甚至时而可以体会到这座城市中的反华情绪。笔者通过田野调查发现,曼德勒华人在都市的法理空间中,践行熟人社会的社会交往方式是导致出现这种紧张族群关系的重要原因之一。综合曼德勒华人与缅人两个群体的表述,揭示日常生活中曼德勒华人的熟人社会的社会交往方式,将会为理解曼德勒华人的境遇及缅华关系提供一种新的视角。