胁迫式外交:战略竞争时代美国对外战略的转型

以特朗普政府2017年《国家安全战略报告》和2018年《国防战略报告》为标志,世界进入美国启动的战略竞争新时期,地缘政治争夺和大国竞争再度成为世界政治的突出主题。美国重振和维护世界主导地位的目标未变,但"胁迫式外交"成为特朗普政府推行对外战略的常态,美国对外行为出现了冷战结束以来最为显著的变化,表现为重新激活战略军事威慑以压制战略军事竞争对手、以贸易热战和科技冷战方式打压战略经济竞争对手、以政治勒索方式逼盟友承担义务、以极限施压方式压制地区敌对国家、以退群和搅局方式阻挠多边外交。美国推行胁迫式外交与特朗普个人的执政风格相关,但根本性的原因是国际政治权力结构的重大变化和战略竞争时代的来临,推动美国对外权力输出发生了转型性变化。这也意味着美国对外权力输出方式正在发生从软实力向硬实力、从依赖制度优势向依赖实力优势的巨大偏转。美国所谓国际"领导力"正加速蜕变为维护美国特权的"胁迫力",美国权力输出的这种变化可能代表着未来美国外交发展的一种长期趋势。     

Scales of Political Action in the Anthropocene: Gaia,Networks, and Cities as Frontiers of Doing Earthly Politics

The purpose of this article is to propose a new theorisation of “scale” in doing earthly politics (i.e. who is acting, who should be responsible for addressing planetary environmental degradation). I connect the politics of scale in global urban politics with the scale question in environmental politics. While the existing paradigm on “politics of scale” have made an excellent contribution on performative aspects of scale, they have failed to respond to the affirmative movements in which scholars and policy makers attempt to theorise scales as ranges in which political action can be mobilised. On the other hand, the new “down-to-earth” affirmative ecopolitics movement often fails to move beyond the romanticisation of the local, which is easily subject to criticisms, such as “local trap” where the small is not always intrinsically “good”. As an alternative, I theorise “scales of political action” that can be simultaneously both materially situated (local) and ubiquitous (global), mainly using Gaian ecology and complex theory. Finally, as a concrete example of “scales of political action”, I propose cities as frontiers of doing earthly politics, focusing on the characteristics of urban conditions that match our new theorisation of scale.     

World Geopolitics and China＇s Choices

Since the beginning of the 21st century, international geostrategic thinking has experienced two important changes. First, the rise of the Asia Pacific region as a global economic power has shifted the world geopolitical center of gravity from the Euro-Atlantic region to the Asia Pacific region at an ever increasing speed. Second, globalization along with Asia Pacific＇s rise has shaken up world geopolitics. Traditionally, geopolitics centered on power struggles and preparations for war but this is now dying out. New geopolitics emphasizes global interdependence and cooperation. These changes provide a rising China with new opportunities. They are creating favorable conditions for the nation in its ascendance. China now needs to formulate a new geostrategy.     

United States Hegemony and the New Economics of Defense

Liberal theory asserts that the need for cost-effective, technologically advanced weapons requires the United States to acquiesce to increasing defense globalization even as this restrains U.S. power. Realist logic dictates that the United States should resist defense liberalization to retain its self-sufficiency. This is a false choice; the United States encourages defense globalization in order to extend its international political influence. This paper proposes an alternate theory of technological hegemony that explains the U.S. policy of massive R&D investment in both the late Cold War and the current era of American preponderance. Modern weapons' complexity and economies of scale tend to produce monopolies, and the value chain for the production of these monopolistic goods is dominated by the systems integration techniques of prime contracting firms. In turn these prime contractors remain largely enthralled by U.S. market power. The United States gains international influence by controlling the distribution of these weapons. Put simply, technology with international political effects is likely to have international political origins.     

Assessing violent nonstate actorness in global politics: a framework for analysis

This article begins with the assumption that the most important shift that is taking place in contemporary global politics is the shift in polity power from the predominance of the state to the rising importance of nonstate actors. It goes on to argue that disciplinary understandings of this shift and, in particular, the nature of the actors driving it, remain dispersed. This article aims, therefore, to provide a framework for evaluating the global political potential—or actorness—of one type of nonstate actor, the violent nonstate actor, positing it as that most overtly challenging states' authority, and therefore with the potential to play a uniquely stimulating role in the shifting of power. Based on three principles of autonomy, representation and influence, the framework provides broad criteria for understanding violent nonstate actors, as well as a means for evaluating violent nonstate actorness and for exploring its potential in global politics.     

战争、和平与全球治理

战争与和平是人类社会面临的重大问题。战争的爆发与和平的实现既受国际政治经济因素的影响,也是国内政治力量相互作用的结果。裁军是决定战争与和平的重要因素,然而,当今国际社会在裁军方面的进展十分缓慢。随着全球化步伐的加快,尤其进入21世纪以来,国际安全形势令人担忧。大规模杀伤性武器的有增无减以及恐怖主义的蔓延继续威胁着国际社会,原先的国际治理逻辑已不再适用。为消除战争、增进和平,重塑全球治理机制的呼声愈加高涨。为此,国际社会需要引入新的治理机制,对影响国际安全的因素加以管理。世界各国日益加深的相互依赖意味着以议题关联为核心的治理手段能够发挥更大作用。为提升和改进全球治理的效果,国际社会必须引入具有动机的激励机制,建立起可信和可核查的制度,对违反协议的国家实施惩罚和制裁,这不仅是国际协议和国际行动成功的关键,也是确保全球治理有效性的不二选择。     

Terror mandated by god

Religion's renewed political presence on a global scale is often accompanied by violence ‐ in part because of the nature of religion and its claims for power over life in death; in part due to the nature of secular politics, which places its own legitimacy on the currency of weapons and can only be challenged successfully on a military level; and in part due to the nature of political violence. The symbolic power of violence can be a valuable commodity for religious as well as for political forces. Through violence, the proponents of a religious ideology like Aum Shinrikyo remind the populace of the godly power that makes their ideology potent, and at times religious activists create man‐made incidents of terror on God's behalf.     

The Global Expansion of Capital Logic

In analyzing international politics and economics, scholars have used a variety of paradigms. Economists, for example, look at globalization and its effects on consumers, developed and developing countries, and its effect on the political structure of various countries. In the realm of politics, some look to the role of the United Nations, others look to the role of the United States as the lone superpower.     

西方“技术联盟”:构建新科技霸权的战略路径

新一轮科技革命与产业变革正在深入发展,科技正成为大国战略竞争的主战场。围绕科技发展与应用之规则、标准、体系等因素的竞争,将直接影响到国际战略的权力结构与国际体系的重塑。基于"技术多边主义"战略,美国将与其伙伴国家围绕高科技领域组建"技术联盟",共同制定全球科技发展与治理的新规则、新标准,进而实现对新科技塑造权力的掌握。随着西方"技术联盟"框架体系日渐成型,全球力量结构、国际格局与国际体系都将受到深刻影响。     

The political theology of the empire to come

This article considers the character and substance of the war on terror and the global security paradigm in the light of political theology and its pivotal place in the constitution of modern liberal politics. The argument is that global liberal governance is predicated on a sacralised temporality, the historicisation of eschatology, and this claim is developed in the light of the juridical–political logic of states of emergency.     

金融全球化、全球金融治理改革与国际金融安全*——基于信息科技革命的视角JP〗*

从本质上说,金融业是一种“信息密集性”或“信息敏感性”产业,对于金融全球化而言,信息技术进步具有特殊重要的意义。在信息科技革命引领和推动下,互联网与金融业相互融合,掀起了人类历史上第二次大规模的金融全球化浪潮。当代金融全球化迅猛发展对国际金融安全产生了重大而深远的影响,新一轮大规模金融全球化、国际金融体系的巨大变化以及由此而形成的新的国际金融格局与既有的全球金融治理框架之间的均衡逐渐被打破,既有的全球金融治理框架越来越难以适应信息科技革命条件下金融全球化发展和维护国际金融安全的要求。为更好地适应当代金融全球化条件下建立新的国际金融公共秩序,更好地维护国际金融安全的需要,以2008年全球金融危机爆发为契机,国际社会揭开了全球金融治理改革的大幕。在国际金融体系和全球金融治理框架处于大变动和寻求新均衡的背景下,中国应抓住有利时机,以更加积极、主动的姿态参与和推动全球金融治理改革,坚持命运共同体理念,遵循责任、权力相一致和平衡的原则,倡导在全球金融治理中加强互联网的运用,为维护国际金融安全做出更大贡献。     

低碳经济背景下俄罗斯能源效率问题探析

低碳经济成为21世纪全球经济发展的一个重要趋势,这一趋势对于经济全球化中的各国能源效率提出了严峻挑战。俄罗斯既是能源出口大国,又是能源消耗大国。高耗能在推动俄罗斯经济快速增长的同时,也带来了诸多环境问题。因此,俄罗斯须在复杂的国际和国内政治经济环境中建设性地参与应对气候变化,在节能减排、提高能效和技术创新等方面,做好向低碳经济转型的准备。     

后冷战时代日本环境外交战略研究

冷战结束后,环境议题成为日本谋求"政治大国"地位的重要手段,其纳入日本对外战略框架有着深刻的国内社会背景和国际政治环境,以对外输出资本和环保技术为主要内容的日本环境外交战略在树立环保大国形象及提高国际声誉方面取得了一定成绩,但公益性的实施方式并没有改变其作为一国外交政策的利益性本质。     

Globalisation or ‘glocalisation’? Networks,territories and rescaling

This paper argues that the alleged process of globalisation should be recast as a process of ‘glocalisation’. ‘Glocalisation’ refers to the twin process whereby, firstly, institutional/regulatory arrangements shift from the national scale both upwards to supra‐national or global scales and downwards to the scale of the individual body or to local, urban or regional configurations and, secondly, economic activities and inter‐firm networks are becoming simultaneously more localised/regionalised and transnational. In particular, attention will be paid to the political and economic dynamics of this geographical rescaling and its implications. The scales of economic networks and institutional arrangements are recast in ways that alter social power geometries in important ways. This contribution, therefore, argues, first, that an important discursive shift took place over the last decade or so which is an integral part of an intensifying ideological, political, socioeconomic and cultural struggle over the organisation of society and the position of the citizen. Secondly, the pre‐eminence of the ‘global’ in much of the literature and political rhetoric obfuscates, marginalizes and silences an intense and ongoing socio‐spatial struggle in which the reconfiguration of spatial scale is a key arena. Third, both the scales of economic flows and networks and those of territorial governance are rescaled through a process of ‘glocalisation’, and, finally, the proliferation of new modes and forms of resistance to the restless process of de‐territorialisation/re‐territorialisation of capital requires greater attention to engaging a ‘politics of scale’. In the final part, attention will be paid to the potentially empowering possibilities of a politics that is sensitive to these scale issues.     

地缘政治学与现时代

随着全球化的不断发展和科学技术的日益进步,地缘政治学似乎已经过时了。但是,从地缘政治学的理论立论来看,“人与自然环境”的联系链条作为其立论的依据是始终存在的,地理环境对国家政治行为的影响是客观的事实。在现时代,分析冷战结束以后的国际政治现实以及中国所处的国际环境,也说明了地缘政治研究的重要意义。因此,现时代的地缘政治研究性质抛弃了原有的旧观念,是用适应时代发展的新的观念来考察新的国际政治现实,其意义更为重要。     

东北亚区域经济合作的政治环境

国际政治环境不仅是一个国家制定内、外政策的依据,更是影响其发展的关键因素。东北亚国际政治环境对于区域经济合作具有重要意义。东北亚这一区域正在经历全球体系中发生的三项重大变革:即,全球化、现代化与国际体系力量核心的转移。这些变革直接影响到区域内的国家之间的关系及其地区内的格局。其中,全球化、国际体系与国家关系的演变对区域合作产生重要的影响。     

Central America,civil society and the ‘pink tide’: democratization or de-democratization?

In the literature on the turn to the left in the wider Latin American region, Central America has generally been neglected. The aim of this article is to seek to fill that gap, while specifically assessing the left turn's impact on prospects for democratization in the sub-region. Using three case studies – El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua – the article questions the usefulness of transition theory for analysis and instead offers a framework based on state/civil society interaction within the context of globalization. Four key conclusions are made: First, democratization is not a linear process, but can be subject to simultaneous processes of democratization and de-democratization. Second, continued deep structural inequalities remain central to the region's politics but these often provoke unproductive personalistic and partisan politics which can inhibit or curtail democratization. Third, interference from local and/or international economic actors can curtail or reverse democratization measures, underlining the influence of globalization. Fourth, Central America is particularly revelatory of these tendencies due to its acute exposure to extreme oligarchic power and outside influence. It hence can help shed light on wider questions on the blurring of boundaries between state, civil society and market and its impact on democratization, especially within the context of globalization. In this way the article contributes to the analysis of Central America in the current context of the ‘pink tide’, underlines the importance of continued analysis of Central America for democratization studies, and brings new insight to debates on transition theory.     

全球化时代的新地缘政治安全观

安全是一个国家最首要的关切,只有在对国家的安全需求和安全观念充分了解的基础上,才能分析和解读国家的行为和理解国际政治现象。传统地缘政治学有着独特的安全观,即对于"空间安全"的关注。但是在当今时代,受到全球化所裹挟的各种因素的冲击,传统地缘政治安全观已经不能适应时代的要求。由于全球化时代空间性质的变化和安全内涵的拓展,新地缘政治安全观应当是在充分关注大空间范围内的安全相互依赖的基础上形成的一种综合的安全观。在以和平、发展为主题的时代背景下,理解新地缘政治安全观,有利于更好的实现特定空间背景下国家之间的合作。     

Indigeneity,Ethnicity, and the State: Australia,Fiji, and New Zealand

This article draws on the politics of indigeneity to distinguish the claims of first occupancy from simple ethnic identity politics, illustrating that relative political marginalization in Australasia is not so much a function of minority status but of indigeneity itself. The politics of indigeneity's aim is to create political space for self-determination and a particular indigenous share in the sovereign authority of the nation-state itself. The Australasian states are compared with Fiji to demonstrate that the significance of historical constraints on political authority transcend the withdrawal of a colonial power and the restoration of collective indigenous majority population status.     

Will science and technology undermine the international political system?

The framework, actors and issues of international politics havechanged as a result of the massive effects of advances in scienceand technology, but the fundamental principles and organizationof the international system have not been substantially altered.Science and technology are no more or less subversive of theinternational political system than are other pressures forchange. Rather, the nation-state structure, with all its problems,will be essential to manage this increasingly complex and interdependentworld. The policy processes within nations, in fact, rarelyallow scientific and technological factors to dominate policy,even in international issues in which those aspects are clearlycentral, might be thought to be the overwhelming considerations,and might have been expected to overturn traditional patternsin the international system. With climate change as the primaryexample, it is seen how and why economic, political and socialconsiderations dominate, not the scientific and technological.