THE ABILITY OF OLDER WORKERS WITH IMPAIRMENTS TO ADAPT TO NEW JOBS: CHANGING THE AGE CRITERIA FOR SOCIAL SECURITY DISABILITY INSURANCE

Many applications for Social Security Disability Insurance cannot be evaluated based on medical criteria alone. In specific cases, the current regulatory structure dictates that applicants who can no longer do past jobs are expected to adapt to new jobs up to the age of 55, but not after. As the proportion of these cases has grown and life expectancy among beneficiaries has increased, policymakers have considered whether expectations for adapting to new jobs above age 55 should be adjusted. Some recent reform proposals call for increasing the age cutoffs in the regulations. Although prior research predicts reduced program costs, the capacity of potentially affected applicants to continue working is unclear. Filling this gap, we evaluate the work capacity of applicants above age 55 using an instrumental variables strategy. Our estimates indicate that, for applicants on the margin of allowance, at most an additional 11.2 percent would work above the regulatory definition of meaningful employment (known as Substantial Gainful Activity) in the absence of Disability Insurance benefits. We explore the implications for adapting to new jobs above age 55 under the proposed policy regime.     

A POLICY OF OUR OWN: LOCAL FEMINIST NETWORKS AND SOCIAL SERVICES FOR WOMEN AND CHILDREN

This article examines the ways in which a feminist family policy agenda has led to significant political action and change within American cities. Feminist groups, during the past fifteen years, became a part of emerging local women's rights policy networks that effected changes in several services for women and children: libraries (programming for women and non-sexist children's literature acquisitions policies); public education (gender equit under Title IX); social welfare (child care and displaced homemaker services); and criminal justice and health (the treatment of the victims of rape and domestic violence). This policy success stems not only from the workings of traditional interest group politics and policy networks but also from the astute use of political symbols, bureaucratic norms, and the federal system.     

THE INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL VALIDITY OF THE REGRESSION DISCONTINUITY DESIGN: A META‐ANALYSIS OF 15 WITHIN‐STUDY COMPARISONS

Theory predicts that regression discontinuity (RD) provides valid causal inference at the cutoff score that determines treatment assignment. One purpose of this paper is to test RD's internal validity across 15 studies. Each of them assesses the correspondence between causal estimates from an RD study and a randomized control trial (RCT) when the estimates are made at the same cutoff point where they should not differ asymptotically. However, statistical error, imperfect design implementation, and a plethora of different possible analysis options, mean that they might nonetheless differ. We test whether they do, assuming that the bias potential is greater with RDs than RCTs. A second purpose of this paper is to investigate the external validity of RD by exploring how the size of the bias estimates varies across the 15 studies, for they differ in their settings, interventions, analyses, and implementation details. Both Bayesian and frequentist meta‐analysis methods show that the RD bias is below 0.01 standard deviations on average, indicating RD's high internal validity. When the study‐specific estimates are shrunken to capitalize on the information the other studies provide, all the RD causal estimates fall within 0.07 standard deviations of their RCT counterparts, now indicating high external validity. With unshrunken estimates, the mean RD bias is still essentially zero, but the distribution of RD bias estimates is less tight, especially with smaller samples and when parametric RD analyses are used.     

COORDINATION IN GOVERNMENT: DECOMPOSITION AND BOUNDED RATIONALITY AS A FRAMEWORK FOR “USER FRIENDLY” STATUTE LAW*

Abstract: Many interactions between adjacent elements of public administration are “resolved” by a weak form of bi-lateral and non-hierarchical coordination. There are quite intractable obstacles to achieving a good fit between bi-lateral resolution and higher order aims of government. Formal limits to the results that can be achieved by coordination may be derived from the requirements for optimality in the “Decomposition Model” of decentralised administration. Limits to human capabilities are widely recognised in contemporary computer software that is designed to be “user friendly”, yet in the design of systems of statute and administration the limits of human rationality are commonly ignored. Proper statutory definition of functional boundaries can harness innate strengths in the “bounded rationality” of which mere mortals and their institutions are capable, and partially guard against the unwanted effects of its weaknesses. Three main classes of interactions may be defined, and can be dealt with respectively by (a) an external and superior source of statutory power, (b) the use of temporary concurrence powers, and (c) statutory plans. The trick is to be clear about which applies in the circumstances.