共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
This paper brings to political science a new decision-making model based on research in consumer behavior. Individuals do
not necessarily make choices from the universe of alternatives; rather, they choose from a “consideration set,” a notion derived
from both utility maximization and information processing theories. Here I apply a model of heterogeneous consideration sets
to voting in the 2000 Mexican national election. I argue that the sub-national variation in the strength of Mexican parties
leads to heterogeneous consideration sets, resulting in individuals with identical issue preferences and personal attributes
making different voting decisions. Application of this model provides both interesting substantive conclusions about vote
choice in Mexico and a more general theoretical innovation regarding vote choice.
相似文献
2.
Cues and heuristics—like party, gender, and race/ethnicity—help voters choose among a set of candidates. We consider candidate professional experience—signaled through occupation—as a cue that voters can use to evaluate candidates’ functional competence for office. We outline and test one condition under which citizens are most likely to use such cues: when there is a clear connection between candidate qualifications and the particular elected office. We further argue that voters in these contexts are likely to make subtle distinctions between candidates, and to vote accordingly. We test our account in the context of local school board elections, and show—through both observational analyses of California election results and a conjoint experiment—that (1) voters favor candidates who work in education; (2) that voters discriminate even among candidates associated with education by only favoring those with strong ties to students; and (3) that the effects are not muted by partisanship. Voters appear to value functional competence for office in and of itself, and use cues in the form of candidate occupation to assess who is and who is not fit for the job. 相似文献
3.
In a recent paper, we posited that tolerance and intolerance judgments are characterized by two forms of variance. First,
the distinction between tolerance and intolerance is dichotomous in that individuals are or are not willing to extend the
full rights of citizenship to all others without exception. Second, among those not so willing, variance exists in the breadth
and depth of their intolerance. James Gibson challenges our view, arguing that we have advanced a fundamental shift in how
tolerance is conceptualized, and that this shift is not warranted empirically because very few Americans are tolerant under
our definition. In this response, we first outline the rationale for why our view does not constitute a significant shift
in the conceptualization of tolerance, but rather is merely an effort to pull the empirical treatment of tolerance into alignment
with the concept’s common definition. Second, we explain that Gibson’s finding that few Americans are tolerant gains noteworthy
meaning and significance from the view of tolerance we present. Lastly, we demonstrate that new insight on the antecedents
of tolerance and intolerance emerges when analyses attend to the two-part structure of tolerance judgments highlighted in
our research. 相似文献
4.
This article argues that foreign policy substitution arises as a result of the costs of foreign policies relative to state resources. States with few resources are constrained in foreign policy choice compared to states with an abundance of resources. As a result, states with few resources will, on average, select, lower‐cost policies than will resource‐rich states. Resource‐rich states, by virtue of their abundant resources, have greater discretion over policy choice and thus behave less uniformly than do resource‐poor states. Our empirical results provide evidence of this and support the argument that substitution is in the variance. 相似文献
5.
A growing literature establishes that presidential candidates can help and hurt themselves through their performance in televised debates. Debate performance, however, is a somewhat elusive concept. Voters' post-debate assessments of the participants may be heavily colored by pre-existing attitudes toward candidates, parties, and the incumbent president. This paper attempts to tease out the “true” impact of debate performance, i.e., those times in which the candidates' superiority or inferiority on stage breaks through voters' cognitive filters. We find that debate performance is responsible for only about half of the variance in viewers' assessments of winners and losers; that it is possible to be declared the winner in the post-debate polls based entirely on factors exogenous to the debate itself; and that even a highly successful performance might yield only a narrow win in the post-debate polls. We also present evidence that, when measured properly, debate performance can actually alter candidate preferences. 相似文献
6.
This article critically assesses the study of Boomgaarden and Vliegenthart (2007) on the relationship between media content and anti-immigrant party support. With regard to conceptualization, it is argued that their dependent variable is flawed, because it groups two parties together that do not belong to the same party family. Some data-related issues, such as measurement equivalence, are also discussed. Finally, it is argued that the causality might be easily reversed. Because anti-immigrant parties are able to exploit issues which are neglected by mainstream parties, it is possible that the media will give more attention to these issues. This study concludes that a causal relationship between news content and anti-immigrant party support is nonexistent in the Dutch case. 相似文献
7.
This paper explores the role that membership in a politicized church and believing in a black Christ have on the political
mobilization and participation of African Americans. Using data from the 1993–94 National Black Politics Study (NBPS), the
authors conclude that imagining a black Christ is a radicalizing force on political participation. Hearing politicizing messages
in a place of worship and believing that Christ is black appears to shift African Americans from relatively conservative or
traditional forms of political participation, such as contacting officials, to more non-traditional political protest. Further,
it appears that imagining a black Christ is distinct from other aspects of a racial belief system and while it has political
implications, it clearly has religious roots that separate it from other racial beliefs.
相似文献
8.
It is often assumed that the institutional organization of electoral management bodies (EMB) has an impact on the credibility of elections, but this proposition has been difficult to verify empirically. I examine whether the degree of autonomy from the political process of EMB administrators affects attitudes towards elections among citizens and legislators by analyzing mass and elite surveys across Latin America. I conclude that levels of confidence in the electoral process among political elites are higher in countries with politically autonomous EMBs, but this effect is muted in the analysis of citizen attitudes. This association holds after controlling for individual-level determinants of trust in elections and for other relevant country-level predictors in multilevel statistical models. 相似文献
9.
The impact of racial context on white voters' support for black candidates in biracial elections has drawn considerable attention from students of racial politics. Two major theories—black threat and social interaction—use different geographic units and provide conflicting explanations. The present study seeks to contribute to the resolution of the controversy by empirically examining white crossover voting at both election unit and neighborhood levels. Twenty-nine mayoral and councilmanic district elections in New Orleans from 1977 to 1998 are investigated. The findings are not consistent with the hypotheses derived from black threat and social interaction theories. Rather than a reflection of racial tolerance or hostility, the changes in white crossover voting in different racial contexts may indicate a rational and strategic adjustment on the part of white voters when they face the prospect of black electoral success. 相似文献
10.
Media outlets in multiparty electoral systems tend to report on a wider range of policy issues than media in two‐party systems. They thus make more competing policy frames available to citizens. This suggests that a “free press” is insufficient to hold governments accountable. Rather, we should observe more challenges to the governments’ preferred frames and more politically aware citizens in multiparty democracies. Such citizens should thus be better equipped to hold their leaders accountable, relative to their counterparts in two‐party democracies. I propose a mechanism through which democratic publics can sometimes constrain their leaders in foreign policy. I test hypotheses derived from my theory with cross‐national data on the content of news coverage of Iraq, on public support for the war, and on decisions to contribute troops to the Iraq “Coalition of the Willing.” I find that citizens in countries with larger numbers of parties confronted more critical and diverse coverage of Iraq, while those with more widespread access to mass media were more likely to oppose the war and their nations likely to contribute fewer troops to the Coalition. 相似文献
11.
The implicit association test (IAT) is increasingly used to detect automatic attitudes. Yet a fundamental question remains about this measure: How well can it predict individual judgments? Though studies find that IAT scores shape individual evaluations, these inquiries do not account for an array of well-validated, theoretically relevant variables, thus raising the challenge of omitted variable bias. For scholars using the IAT, the risk here is one of misattributing to implicit attitudes what can be better explained by alternate and rigorous self-reports of explicit constructs. This paper examines the IAT’s performance in the context of U.S. immigration politics. Using a representative web survey of adults, I demonstrate the IAT effectively captures implicit attitude toward Latino immigrants. Critically, I then show these attitudes substantively mold individual preferences for illegal and legal immigration policy, net of political ideology, socio-economic concerns, and well-established measures of intolerance toward immigrants, such as authoritarianism and ethnocentrism. Combined, these results suggest the IAT measures attitudes that are non-redundant and potent predictors of individual political judgments. 相似文献
12.
Decades of research suggests that campaign contact together with an advantageous socioeconomic profile increases the likelihood
of casting a ballot. Measurement and modeling handicaps permit a lingering uncertainty about campaign communication as a source
of political mobilization however. Using data from a uniquely detailed telephone survey conducted in a pair of highly competitive
2002 U.S. Senate races, we further investigate who gets contacted, in what form, and with what effect. We conclude that even
in high-profile, high-dollar races the most important determinant of voter turnout is vote history, but that holding this
variable constant reveals a positive effect for campaign communication among “seldom” voters, registered but rarely active
participants who—ironically—are less likely than regular or intermittent voters to receive such communication.
相似文献
13.
It is generally held that individuals vote for the party that most closely aligns with their preferences, yet previous research identifies numerous factors which lead individuals to stray from the proximity logic. To shed light on this phenomenon, I examine proximity voting from a comparative perspective. Results from a multilevel model indicate that several individual- and election-level factors affect the likelihood of a proximity vote. I also find proximity voting to occur less in countries where political variation is not well-captured by a single dimension. These findings shed light on the bases of proximity voting and add to the general understanding of the nature of voting behavior. 相似文献
14.
This paper examines the rational choice reasoning that is used to explain the correlation between low voter turnout and the disruptions caused by weather related phenomena in the United States. Using in-person as well as phone survey data collected in New York City where the damage and disruption caused by Hurricane Sandy varied by district and even by city blocks, we explore, more directly than one can with aggregate data, whether individuals who were more affected by the disruptions caused by Hurricane Sandy were more or less likely to vote in the 2012 Presidential Election that took place while voters still struggled with the devastation of the hurricane and unusually low temperatures. Contrary to the findings of other scholars who use aggregate data to examine similar questions, we find that there is no difference in the likelihood to vote between citizens who experienced greater discomfort and those who experienced no discomfort even in non-competitive districts. We theorize that this is in part due to the resilience to costs and higher levels of political engagement that vulnerable groups develop under certain institutional conditions. 相似文献
15.
How does corruption affect voting behavior when economic conditions are poor? Using a novel experimental design and two original survey experiments, we offer four important conclusions. First, in a low corruption country (Sweden), voters react negatively to corruption regardless of the state of the economy. Second, in a high corruption country (Moldova), voters react negatively to corruption only when the state of the economy is also poor; when economic conditions are good, corruption is less important. Third, respondents in Sweden react more strongly to corruption stimuli than respondents in Moldova. Finally, in the low corruption country, sociotropic corruption voting (or voting based on corruption among political leaders) is relatively more important, whereas in our high corruption country, pocketbook corruption voting (or voting based on one's own personal experience with corruption, i.e., being asked to pay bribes) is equally prevalent. Our findings are consistent with multiple stable corruption equilibria, as well as with a world where voters are more responsive to corruption signals more common in their environment. 相似文献
16.
According to many theoretical accounts of the vote choice, distal determinants (e.g., party identification) influence proximal
determinants (e.g., perceptions of candidates), which in turn shape candidate preferences. Yet almost no research on voting
has formally tested such mediational hypotheses. Using national survey data collected between February and September of 2004,
this paper begins by illustrating how to conduct such investigations. We explored whether public approval of President Bush’s
handling of a series of specific national problems (e.g., the Iraq war) influenced overall assessments of his job performance
and evaluations of his likely future performance versus John Kerry’s, which in turn shaped vote choices. The results are consistent
with the claim of mediation and shed additional light on the impact of various issues on the 2004 election outcome. We also
tested what we term the “dosage hypothesis,” derived from news media priming theory, which posits that changes in the amount
of media coverage of an issue during the course of a campaign should precipitate changes in the weight citizens place on that
issue when evaluating the president’s overall job performance, particularly among citizens most exposed to the news. Surprisingly,
this analysis did not yield consistent support for the venerable dosage hypothesis, suggesting that the conditions under which
priming occurs should be specified much more precisely in future work.
相似文献
17.
The British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) is one of Britain's most controversial Overseas Territories. Its indigenous people, the Chagossians, were exiled from their homes in the 1960s and 1970s so that BIOT could play host to a US military base on the island of Diego Garcia. Meanwhile, Diego Garcia has been tarnished by revelations regarding its role in the CIA's ‘extraordinary rendition’ programme and by allegations of torture. And earlier this year, an international tribunal ruled that the UK government had violated international law by pushing through a Marine Protected Area to cover the territory over and above the protestations of neighbouring states. In this article, I argue that allowing the resettlement of BIOT by the Chagossians would go a long way towards improving the way that the territory has been governed for the past five decades. 相似文献
18.
容错纠错机制是宽容干部失误错误、鼓励干部改革创新的重要保障。以2016—2018年各级地方政府出台的78份容错纠错政策文本为研究对象,运用政策文献计量分析法从时间和层级两个维度对容错纠错政策文本进行统计分析,可以发现,容错纠错机制的演进表现出明显的地方先行特征,虽然注重容错纠错的程序设计并体现容错纠错的权益保障,但是忽略了容错纠错的错误识别。容错纠错机制的完善,应该以错误识别环节为突破口,同时明确容错与纠错的区分标准,以增强容错纠错制度的现实可操作性。在此基础上,容错纠错的制度建设和实践发展,还需要考虑其背后可能支撑的原理或价值,从法律秩序与法治价值的层面予以审视。 相似文献
19.
At the 2010 UK election, Labour proposed a referendum on changing the House of Commons electoral system from single member plurality to the Alternative Vote. Subsequently, a coalition was formed between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, yet it was Labour's policy on electoral reform that was implemented. The paper explains why this proved to be politically convenient for Labour's opponents. At the same time, however, holding the referendum reflected an emergent de facto convention that significant constitutional change should only be introduced after it has secured popular endorsement. The paper assesses whether the dynamics of public opinion during the AV referendum suggests that voters' eventual decisions about constitutional questions reflect their views about the merits of the relevant arguments. 相似文献
|