Exchange Rate Adjustment in Partially Liberalized Economy

This paper develops a model of exchange rate determination in partially liberalized post-socialist economy that operates under soft budget constraints in nontradable sectors. The model captures the factors that determine the evolution of a country's external balance during the initial phase of economic liberalization. Three types of disturbances are the center of analysis: liberalization of trade and foreign exchange regime, devaluation, and price liberalization. We show that the real exchange rate appreciation may either improve or worsen the trade balance depending on the sources of this appreciation. Thus, we argue that the real exchange rate cannot reflect true country's competitiveness unless all sectors are equally exposed to hard budget constraints. The model implications are further analyzed through the empirical evidence on the relationship between the real exchange rate and trade balance in three selected East European countries.     

Impacts of realized volatility of oil price over foreign trade related activities in Turkey

Since 1973 oil crises, especially, small open economies have considered sudden and highly volatile movements in currencies and current account deficits. Oil prices have been breaking new historical price records since second quarter of 2014, especially from last quarter of 2015 to first quarter of 2016, which have gradually put pressure on political, geographical, and currencies risks in the Middle East and Eastern European countries. Similarly, because Turkish economy has been experienced serious current account deficit problems especially since 2002, the effect of decline in oil prices and increased volatility has been worth of investigating. For 2003M1–2015M7 period, export–import ratio, real exchange rate index, realized volatility in oil prices calculated based on monthly OPEC basket price, industrial production index, and consumer price index were collected to analyze these effects and causality relationship among these variables. Test results of unit root test with and without structural break, ARDL bound test and co-integration test were sorted out among variables. Initial result is that price volatility increases and total import decreases more sharply than total export after the decline in oil prices; thus, export–import ratio increases. Another is that there is a negative relationship between real exchange rate index and export–import ratio for real economy because of low oil substituents. As expected, inflation has an adverse effect on foreign trade ratio. Consequently, because of lower pressure of energy-induced inflation, economy policy makers will have some ability to change their priorities from inflation issue to other structural problems.     

Impacts of Monetary,Fiscal and Exchange Rate Policies on Output in China: A Var Approach

Applying the VAR model and using the interest rate as a monetary policy variable, we find that in the long run, output in China responds negatively to a shock to the interest rate, the real exchange rate, government debt, or the inflation rate, and it reacts positively to a shock to government deficits or lagged own output. When real M2 is chosen as a monetary policy variable, long-term output in China responds positively to a shock to real M2 or lagged own output, and it reacts negatively to a shock to the real exchange rate, government debt, or government deficits. Its response to a shock to the inflation rate is negative when government debt is used and is positive when government deficits are considered. In the short run, fiscal policy is more important than monetary policy in three out of four cases. In the long run, monetary policy is more influential than fiscal policy in three out of four cases. Therefore, the government may consider conducting monetary and fiscal policies differently in the short run and long run. The government needs to be cautious in pursuing deficit spending as its long-term impacts depend on the monetary variable employed. The policy of maintaining a relatively stable exchange rate is appropriate as the depreciation of the Yuan may hurt the economy in the short run.     

Redistributing the energy tax burden in the Philippines

This paper uses an aggregate modelling approach to assess the impacts of a redistribution of the taxes and duties that currently exist on crude oil and refined petroleum products on the Philippine economy. The approach used in the analysis consists of a general equilibrium model composed of fourteen producing sectors, fifteen consuming sectors, three household categories classified by income and a government. The effects of replacing the taxes and duties on crude oil and refined petroleum products with a more broad based tax on manufacturing and service sectors output on prices and quantities are examined. The results are revealing. For example, the consequences of redistributing the tax burden away from petroleum products to the manufacturing and service sectors of the Philippine economy will be an increase in output by all producing sectors of about 3.5 percent or about 2.4 hundred billion Philippine pesos, a rise in the consumption of goods and services by about 6.1 percent or 1.6 hundred billion Philippine pesos, a rise in total utility by 6.9 or 1.9 hundred billion Philippine pesos, and virtually no change in tax revenue for the government. When subjected to a sensitivity analysis, the results are reasonably robust with regard to the assumption of the values of the substitution elasticities. That is, while the model's equilibrium values do vary in response to different assumptions of the values of these elasticities, the fluctuations are not so enormous to suggest that the model is unrealistically sensitive to these parameters.     

Exploring the residual effects of malingering in mock victims of violent crime: an experimental vignette study

The current study investigated the residual effects of malingering in a sample of 94 Dutch university students. Participants were ordered or advised (but not obliged) to fake psychological symptoms in response to an imaginary act of violent crime victimization in order to obtain financial compensation from the Dutch state or to respond honestly. Participants’ willingness to malinger was assessed with three types of questionnaires: (1) a questionnaire which measures the tendency to report bizarre and unlikely symptoms, (2) a questionnaire which measures the tendency to underperform on facial recognition tasks, and (3) a questionnaire which measures the tendency to report extremely high levels of posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms. After completion of a Sudoku puzzle, participants were again instructed to fill out the three questionnaires, but this time they all had to respond honestly. Results indicated that participants who had been instructed to malinger (ordered or advised) had higher scores on all questionnaires, not only on the first but also on the second occasion. This suggested that residual effects of initial malingering had occurred. Results further suggested that detection of residual effects may depend on measurement method and instruction wording. Findings are discussed in light of the literature and study limitations.     

An elasticity approach to the analysis of Romanian foreign trade policy during the years of transition

This paper focuses on the effect of exchange rate variations on the economic evolution of a country in transition, facing inflation, output decrease and negative external shocks; the particular case of Romania is considered. The theoretical part is linked to the Fleming-Mundell model for an open economy, but additional assumptions of price mobility and capital immobility are introduced. The usual interest rate versus output graphic framework is switched from one to another, which plots the exchange rate (or real exchange rate) versus output; the author considers that such a representation fits the behavior of an economy in transition towards a market-based system better. A main role, according to this interpretation, is played by the exchange rate elasticities of imports and exports, which influence the images of the equilibria on the goods market and the balance of payment (the IS and BOP curves' slopes). Finally, an empirical analysis is made, as an example, on the Romanian energy imports data series; the attempts to calculate the exchange rate elasticity may be considered as reliable only in the short term. In order to estimate the global exchange rate elasticities of imports and exports, some aggregations of partial sectorial results might be a possible solution. In the Romanian case, the resulting elasticities seem to be lower than for other countries; this poses the question as to the effectiveness of exchange rate policies in managing the Romanian economy.     

现货与期货交易的界分标准与法律规制

商品现货中远期交易平台具有促进商品交换与商品流通、管理风险等多种功能,在服务实体经济中具有特殊地位。从历史上看,是先有现货中远期交易,而后才演化出了期货交易,二者关联度极高。区分现货与期货交易,应从二者不同的交易目的、功能定位、主体特征和交易结果等整体情况综合判定,而不宜倚重于依据二者某些交易规则的相似性进行显性判断。其相关立法、行政监管和司法裁判应坚持整体判断标准,进一步促进此类平台向服务实体经济转型。     

The cross holding of company shares

Cross shareholding is a practice whereby pairs of companies exchange holding of shares. It is vitally important to recognize that cross shareholding has both positive and negative effects, the latter of which demand particular scrutiny. This article tries to suggest a possible framework for the regulation of cross shareholding in China, by mainly applying lessons and implications from the experiences of Japan, where cross-holding has contributed to the spike and collapse of its economy. Currency appreciation, accounting rules changes and capital market restructuring are putting China in the similar shoes. Targeting at different situations, hereby a spectrum of rules has been proposed.     

Attitudes of Dutch citizens towards male victims of sexual coercion by a female perpetrator

ABSTRACT

This vignette study examines the differences in Dutch people's attitudes towards sexual coercion perpetrated by a male against a female versus sexual coercion perpetrated by a female against a male. In total, 583 Dutch citizens (16–86 years, 59.7% female) evaluated a control scenario and three sexually coercive scenarios (verbal coercion, purposeful intoxication and force), in which the sex of perpetrator and victim was purposely varied. The variables studied include: (1) scenario acceptability, (2) victim responsibility, (3) perpetrator responsibility, (4) victim pleasure, (5) victim distress and (6) support for filing a police report. The results indicate that sexual coercion of men is taken less seriously than sexual coercion of women, especially among Dutch men. However, most differences between attitudes towards male and female victims were found only in the physical force scenario. The findings highlight the importance of educational programmes to raise awareness and reduce stereotypical views on male sexual victimisation.     

China's exchange rate and the balance of trade

This paper examines the responsiveness of the balance of trade of the People's Republic of China to the real exchange rate. We find that, in both the short-run and the long-run, devaluation serves to improve the balance of trade. Using quarterly data for 1980:I to 1989:IV we show that the bulk of the response to devaluation occurs over a one year period, with noJ-curve effect. These results suggest that the two-tier price system and other measures to liberalize the Chinese economy have made the exchange rate an effective indirect tool for regulating trade.     

物权公示方式研究

物权公示方式不外乎占有或者交付、登记、标示三种类型。占有或者交付是物权公示方式的最直观最古老的形态,标示是变态的占有,登记则属于发展了的标示。背书不是独立的物权公示方式。由于登记方式加入了公共权力的因素,其公示力应当最强,标示次之,占有最弱。选择物权公示方式,除物的本身自然属性之外,至少还应当考量以下三个因素:其一,物权客体本身的特性,即作为物权客体是物还是所有权之外的财产权利;其二,物的价值大小以及国家对价值大的财产通过登记进行管理的需要;其三,其他方面的经济要求。权利物权的公示方式与动产物权、不动产物权都不一样,其公示方式呈现出多元化的趋势。非移转占有型动产让与担保最合适的公示方式还是登记与标示相结合的方式。     

Dutch real estate search engine found to provide lawful deep linking to websites of realtors

In preliminary relief proceedings against the Dutch search enginezoekallehuizen.nl, the Dutch court turned down the claims ofthe Dutch association of real estate agents (NVM) that the provisionof deep links to its members' websites infringed the copyrightand database rights of those realtors, but found that the NVMinfringed competition law by asking its members to make it impossiblefor zoekallehuizen.nl to provide deep links to their websites.     

Ethnic differences in the relationship between psychopathy and (re)offending in a sample of juvenile delinquents

The present study focused on the relationship between psychopathy and delinquency in a multiethnic sample of juvenile offenders (N=207, n=105 native Dutch, and n=102 immigrants) referred to a treatment program. Aims were (1) to examine the cross-ethnic equivalence of the Antisocial Process Screening Device (APSD); (2) to compare the mean levels of psychopathic traits in native Dutch and immigrant juvenile delinquents and (3) the strength of the associations between psychopathic traits and delinquency in both the native Dutch and immigrant samples. Measurement invariance was established for APSD factors assessing callous-unemotional (CU) traits and impulsivity. However, there were ethnic differences in the factor structure of narcissism. No differences were found between ethnic groups in mean levels of CU traits and impulsivity. Finally, the association between impulsivity and self-reported delinquency was stronger for native Dutch than for immigrant juveniles. Further research is needed in order to make the treatment of juvenile delinquents with psychopathic traits in ethnic minority groups more effective according to the specific needs of these juveniles.     

Purchasing Power Parity in Three Transition Economies

This paper uses cointegration analysis on monthly data over April 1994-December 2000 to test the relevance theory of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for two advanced transition economies (Poland and the Czech Republic) and one lagging transition economy (Romania). PPP is not rejected between the lagging reformer and developed market economies, but is rejected between the advanced reformers and the developed economies. However, PPP is not rejected between the two advanced transition economies, though it is rejected between the lagging and advanced transition economies. The evolution of the real exchange rates over 1994-2000 suggest that a significant explanation for these findings is the central role of the exchange rate in the disinflation strategies of Poland and the Czech Republic in the early part of this period, in contrast to the managed float followed by Romania throughout the period.     

The mental health needs of incarcerated youth in British Columbia, Canada

The purpose of the study was to identify the current prevalence of mental disorders and mental health needs among incarcerated male and female youths in Canada, and to present these data in the context of rates found in other jurisdictions. One hundred forty male and 65 female incarcerated young offenders in British Columbia were screened with the Massachusetts Youth Screening Instrument Version 2 (MAYSI-2); provisional psychiatric diagnoses were assessed with the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children Version IV (DISC-IV); abuse history and aggressive symptoms of Conduct Disorder (CD) were coded from file information. Nearly all youths (91.9% of males and 100% of females) met the criteria for at least one mental disorder. Substance abuse and dependence disorders were highly prevalent (85.5% of males and 100% of females). Aggressive forms of CD were common (72.9% of males and 84.3% of females), as were exposure to physical abuse (60.8% of males and 54.3% of females) and sexual abuse (21.2% of males and 42.4% of females). Female youths had significantly higher odds of presenting with: (1) substance abuse/dependence disorders; (2) current suicide ideation; (3) sexual abuse; (4) PTSD; (5) symptoms of depression and anxiety; (6) Oppositional Defiant Disorder; and (7) multiple mental disorder diagnoses. Male youths had significantly higher odds of presenting with aggressive symptoms of CD. Overall, rates of mental disorder among this sample of serious and violent young offenders were higher than rates previously reported for incarcerated youths — both in Canada and in other jurisdictions.     

Standard Symptom Inventories for Asylum Seekers in a Psychiatric Hospital: Limited Utility Due to Poor Symptom Validity

We examined symptom validity in two samples (Ns = 27 and 35) of asylum seekers who had been admitted to a psychiatric facility. Considerable proportions over-endorsed atypical symptoms (63 and 83%, respectively) and underperformed on a simple forced-choice task requiring the identification of basic emotions (41 and 71%, respectively). Over-endorsement and underperformance were unrelated to Dutch language proficiency but were related to raised scores on standard symptom inventories commonly used to assess psychiatric symptoms of asylum seekers. This pattern of findings casts doubts on attempts to monitor symptom severity and treatment progress in psychiatric asylum seekers without taking symptom validity into account.     

房地产投资信托(REITs)之功能演绎与成因探析——以美国REITs立法为背景

美国REITs的功能已从其初始立法目标——"被动"商业实体,逐步偏移成为现在积极的商业实体。美国REITs的功能变化很大程度上受美国税法的影响。税法从四个方面对REITs的功能变化产生积极影响:一是允许REITs成为积极的商业实体;二是使REITs对外国投资者更具吸引力;三是使不动产的直接所有权更难取得;四是REITs自身也通过交易的创新积极配合税法的发展。     

Rationales and mechanisms for revitalizing US manufacturing R&;D strategies

The race to economic superiority is increasingly occurring on a global scale. Competitors from different countries are employing new types of growth strategies in attempts to win that race. The United States cannot, therefore, continue to rely on outdated economic growth strategies, which include an inability to understand the complexity of the typical industrial technology and the synergies among tiers in high-tech supply chains. In this context, a detailed rationale is provided for maintaining a viable domestic technology-based manufacturing capability. In the United States, the still dominant neoclassical economic philosophy is at best ambivalent on the issue of whether a technology-based economy should attempt to remain competitive in manufacturing or let this sector continue to offshore in response to trends in comparative advantage, as revealed through shifts in relative prices. The paper argues that the neoclassical view is inaccurate and that a new innovation model is required to guide economic growth policy. Specifically, the paper provides (1) a rationale for why an advanced economy such as the United States needs a manufacturing sector; (2) examples of the process of deterioration of competitive positions for individual industries and, more important, entire high-tech supply chains; (3) an explanation of the inadequacy of current economic models for rationalizing needed new policy strategies; and (4) a new economic framework for determining both policy mechanisms and targets for those mechanisms, with emphasis on the systems nature of modern technologies and the consequent requirement for public–private innovation ecosystems to develop and deliver these technologies. Several targets are suggested for major policy mechanisms.     

Money,Mortgages, and the Conquest of America

In colonial America, land acquired new liquidity when it became liable for debts. Though English property law maintained a firm distinction between land and chattel for centuries, in the American colonies, the boundary between the categories of real and personal property began to disintegrate. There, the novelty of easy foreclosure and consequent easy alienation of land made it possible for colonists to obtain credit, using land as a security. However, scholars have neglected the first instances in which a newly unconstrained practice of mortgage foreclosure appeared—the transactions through which colonists acquired land from indigenous people in the first place. In this article, I explore these early transactions for land, which took place across fundamental differences between colonists’ and native communities’ conceptions of money, land, and exchange itself. I describe how difference and dependence propelled the growth of the early American contact economy to make land into real estate, or the fungible commodity on the speculative market that it remains today.     

房地产泡沫：理论分析与长三角实证检验

房地产泡沫是一种与人的心理预期有关的价格现象,对房地产泡沫的测度应综合考虑经济基本面和心理预期因素.以上海、南京和杭州为样本,对1999-2007年长三角的房地产价格泡沫程度和发展趋势进行实证分析,发现2002年之前长三角房地产价格泡沫在5%以内,属于合理范围;从2003年起房地产泡沫开始加速膨胀,2006年达到顶点,2007年有所回调.应当密切注意其房地产价格波动,并进行正确的引导,这对房地产市场的建康发展至关重要.