UNEMPLOYMENT AND PUNISHMENT: AN EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT*

Evidence for a relationship between unemployment and imprisonment has been regarded as “elusive” and “conflicting.” Such conclusions have been based primarily on aggregate-level data. Individual-level data have provided only indirect evidence for this relationship. This research considers prosecution, incarceration, and length of incarceration outcomes for 1,970 criminal defendants arrested in 1982. Multivariate logit and OLS estimates show a significant, strong, and independent impact of unemployment on pretrial and postsentencing incarceration. The interaction of race and unemployment shows that the greatest likelihood of incarceration is for unemployed black defendants, especially those who are young males or charged with violent and public order crimes. Theoretical implications for the control and punishment of “dangerous classes” are discussed.     

THE RULE OF LAW IN CORPORATE SOCIETY: NEUMANN,KIRCHHEIMER AND THE LESSONS OF WEIMAR

The Rule of Law : Political Theory and the Legal System in Modern Society . By Franz L. Neumann . Social Democracy and the Rule of Law . By Otto Kirchheimer and Franz Neumann . Edited by Keith Tribe. Translated by Leena Tanner and Keith Tribe.     

DETERMINISM,INDETERMINISM, AND CRIME: AN EMPIRICAL EXPLORATION*

Most individual-level research in criminology is based on a deterministic model: the factors that constrain individuals to crime or conformity are listed, and those factors are used to predict differences in the level of crime between individuals or groups of similar individuals. This paper explores an empirical model derived from recent work on sop determinism and indeterminism. Behaviors are said to vary in the extent to which they are determined, with behavior being fully determined at one end of the continuum and largely free (indetermined) at the other end. There is a discussion of those factors that influence the extent to which behavior is determined. And it is hypothesized that crime will be more variable and less predictable when conditions favor indeterminism. The empirical model in this paper, then, focuses on those factors believed to foster freedom of action and choice, and it uses those factors to predict differences in the amount of variation (unpredictability) in crime between individuals or groups of similar individuals. Data from two national surveys of adolescents provide tentative support for the hypothesis.     

PARALLEL IMPORTATION AND SERVICE QUALITY: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF COMPETITION BETWEEN DVDS AND CINEMAS IN NEW ZEALAND

Investigations into the causes and effects of parallel importinghave concentrated on price discrimination, but arbitrage canalso occur on non-price dimensions. Using a natural experimentin the New Zealand film distribution industry between May 1998and November 2001, we examine the effect of parallel importingon quality as it relates to the timing of the availability offilm media. We demonstrate that (a) cinema revenues were underminedas consumers substituted viewing films on parallel importedDVDs for the cinema format and (b) that studios responded tothe threat of parallel imported DVDs by bringing forward therelease of films into New Zealand cinemas. The reduced delaybetween US and New Zealand cinematic release dates is shownto be consistent with the introduction of competition when timingis a dimension of quality and choice. We conclude that parallelimportation of DVDs almost certainly resulted in a net increasein welfare in New Zealand.     

SENTENCING AND UNWARRANTED DISPARITY: AN EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE LONG-TERM IMPACT OF SENTENCING GUIDELINES IN MINNESOTA*

Using an interrupted time-series design, this research note analyzes the long-term effect of Minnesota's sentencing guidelines on reducing unwarranted disparity in sentencing outcomes that fall within their scope of authority. Unwarranted disparity is defined as residual variation not attributable to legally mandated sentencing factors. Findings suggest that although the sentencing guidelines initially reduced disparity for the no prison/prison sentencing decision, inequality began to revert to preguideline levels as time passed. Further analysis revealed that the guidelines had a permanent impact on reducing disparities in decisions on the length of prison sentence. Overall we observed an 18% decline in disparity for the no prison/prison outcome and a 60% reduction in inequality for the judicial decision as to length of prison sentence. Two explanations for the reversionary trend in the no prison/prison series are highlighted.     

EMPIRICAL AND ETHICAL PROBLEMS WITH CUSTODY RECOMMENDATIONS:

This article proposes a four-level model of clinical inferences to analyze the psychological evaluation process in custody matters. At each level the authors summarize the status of the relevant psychological literature and conclude that, as clinicians respond to the ultimate issues (e.g., who should be the custodial parent) the empirical foundation for such conclusions is tenuous or non-existent. A jurisprudence argument is also made that such opinions should be routinely excluded from the fact-finding process. Given the significant potential for specific custody recommendations to limit personal liberties and the trajectory of a child's life, the paucity of relevant research available in this area, and profound evidentiary issues, such recommendations should be viewed as ethically inappropriate. A model for what clinicians can ethically say to courts is proposed.