中国崛起与东亚地区秩序演变

冷战结束后,东亚地区秩序的变化显而易见,但如何界定当今的东亚地区秩序却一直存有争论。本文试图从地区秩序的界定和分类入手,结合冷战后有关东亚地区秩序的争论,分析中国崛起对东亚地区秩序的影响,以辨析和把握东亚地区秩序的发展方向。作者发现,冷战后有关东亚秩序的争论说明,东亚地区尚未形成得到普遍认可的秩序安排,但决定其未来发展走向的两个核心因素已愈发明确,即美国的东亚同盟体系的延续和中国经济实力的崛起。东亚地区秩序演变趋势是,美国依托其东亚同盟体系与经济崛起的中国协调,共同塑造地区规则,维护地区稳定安全。其具体特征是:美国依靠其地区同盟发挥作用;中国与美国及其盟国通过多边或双边协调解决地区安全问题;中国自我克制缓解地区安全问题。决定东亚地区秩序未来的关键是既有的美国东亚同盟体系如何应对中国崛起。要巩固、深化地区协调共治秩序,需要美国及其东亚同盟体系对中国的自我克制政策做出善意的战略回应。     

试析后冷战时期中国加强东亚地区合作的动因

本文认为,后冷战时期中国加强东亚地区合作,是由于东亚地区彼此的认知结构发生变化,导致中国对自我身份重新定位,中国的国家利益随之扩展。由此,中国加强东亚地区合作,给东亚地区带来的是和平与安全,而非动荡与威胁。     

东南亚国家的经济外交与地区安全秩序的重塑

冷战结束后,塑造东亚地区安全秩序的力量来源主要有两个:一是雅尔塔体系的遗产,二是东南亚国家的经济外交。一方面,中国与俄罗斯通过上海合作组织构建了在安全等领域的合作,而美国在美日同盟的基础上强化了其在东亚的单边及多边同盟体系。因此,雅尔塔体系遗产的组织化程度较以往明显提高。另一方面,东南亚诸国通过在东盟"10+"合作框架、亚太经合组织以及亚欧会议等平台实施经济外交,比较成功地把主要大国及区域集团力量牵绊在东亚地区,并藉此影响了冷战后东亚地区的政治、安全秩序。     

美国对亚非会议政策再探讨——基于东亚冷战的视角

20世纪50年代中期东亚地区冷战的特点是美国着力组建旨在遏制中国的军事同盟体系,而中国通过落实国际和平统一战线政策力图突破美国的封锁。亚非会议成为中美两国冷战角力的焦点。美国对亚非会议的政策有两个基本点:第一,美国不公开反对召开亚非会议,但鼓励所谓“温和国家”与会,以间接发挥美国对会议的影响力;第二,全力阻止会议发起国做出邀请中国与会的决定。在行动没有奏效的情况下,转而要求自己的盟国代表“自由世界”发言,尽可能限制中国代表团在会上的影响。会议开幕后,美国没有对周恩来提出的缓和台湾地区紧张局势的声明给予积极回应。会议结束后,美国逐渐认识到周恩来的外交活动在会议上取得了成功,但仍然未能促使它改变遏制、敌视新中国的政策。     

安全预期、经济收益与东亚安全秩序

冷战后,东亚地区不仅没有进入一个充满紧张和冲突的时期,反而维持了相对长时间的和平状态。有关东亚安全秩序的既有解释主要强调的是体系结构或过程,但不足以解释东亚安全秩序内部的动力和机制,以及这种秩序蕴含的内在不稳定性的主要原因。本文提出了一种功能论的解释,认为美国和中国分别为东亚地区提供了安全预期和经济收益两项最为重要的公共产品,是维系当前东亚安全秩序的基础。然而,在中国崛起和美国重返东亚带来的冲击下,这两种地区性公共产品的供给脱节和供给矛盾使既有东亚安全秩序面临内在的不稳定性。为了应对这种不确定性,达到稳定周边环境和缓解崛起疑虑的效果,中国在为本地区提供稳定的经济收益的同时也需要在政治和军事方面采取积极的安全保障措施,营造东亚安全秩序的新基础。     

危机幕后的东亚地区秩序分析

本文认为,东亚当前出现"大战不犯,小乱不断"状况的根源在于新旧嬗变中的地区秩序远未就域内各国的政治安排形成制度化设计,在于东亚地区秩序的"有气无力"。历史上,东亚地区秩序曾经历了天朝礼治秩序、条约秩序和冷战下"自主"秩序三种形态。依据历史脉络的梳理,本文认为有美国、中国、日本等七个要素影响着东亚地区秩序。为明确这些要素的特征及相互作用,本文提出了反映国家和国家关系总体形态的"锥体"模型。美国是影响东亚地区秩序的决定性变量,利用"锥体"模型,本文认为,美国现实主义的热情与贪婪,地缘战略的坚持与冷静,相互依赖的推动与困惑等特征共同勾画着东亚战略。中国的复兴是影响东亚地区秩序的突出变量,其显著特征在于整体性的成长。日本"正常化"是影响东亚地区秩序的另一主要变量,其特征在于日本自身的"二重性"。朝鲜半岛、台湾、东南亚由于其关键性和不稳定性而成为东亚地区秩序的缝合口。此外,俄罗斯要素也不可或缺。在美国要素与中国、日本等要素的复杂互动中,中美关系是东亚地区秩序的主轴,作为其中一方的中国,如何把握自身不断增长的力量至关重要。     

退出冷战:戈尔巴乔夫的主动选择

美国人一直以冷战的胜利者自居,这并不符合历史事实。第二次世界大战结束后美苏对抗了几十年,双方都投入了大量人力物力,恶化了国际环境,造成了许多矛盾与冲突,损害了世界和平。戈尔巴乔夫上台后,采取的第一个步骤便是改善苏美关系,试图摆脱冷战的桎梏。     

东盟实施大国平衡战略的新进展

冷战结束以来,东盟一直在推行大国平衡战略,尤其是维持中、日、美三国在东亚地区影响力的平衡.东亚峰会的召开使东盟的这种战略扩展到了印度、澳大利亚和新西兰.然而同时,东盟的地区主导作用又受到新的威胁和挑战,无疑这又会影响它实施这一战略.另外,美国的无暇东顾又使得东盟倍加担忧,从而迫使东盟召唤美国关注东南亚,以恢复大国的平衡.     

社会科学文献出版社

<正>东亚地缘环境变化与中国区域地缘战略郭锐/著2015年6月出版/59.00元ISBN 978-7-5097-7173-0本书梳理了冷战后地缘理论的发展和演变,分析了冷战后随着全球化的发展和国际环境的深刻变化,东亚地区发生的巨大变化,阐述了东亚地缘经济合作的现状与问题、美国东亚联盟的转型、中俄能源合作等一系列问题,并相应地提出了一些应对的思路和建议。     

东亚地区政治经济形势与朝鲜半岛

东亚地区政治经济形势与朝鲜半岛韩镇涉冷战结束和苏联解体给东亚地区带来的冲击比人们的预料要轻。但在变化了的新的国际形势下，越来越多的东亚国家在加速本国经济发展和加强区域合作的同时，对就东亚地区的政治和安全问题开展多边对话和合作给予更大重视，这是区别于其...     

Determinants of a regional organisation's role in peace and security: the African Union and the European Union compared

This article presents the determinants of the influence of regional organisations in the area of international peace and security. It is aimed at initiating and provoking debate on the preponderant factors shaping that influence. The factors or determinants treated include (1) the willingness of the regional organisation to act, (2) the acceptance of its actions and (3) its capacity to discharge such peace-related tasks. The determinants are contingent on nine sub-determinants. The article uses a comparative approach, focusing on the African Union and the European Union after placing the discussion in the context of the relationship between regional organisations and the United Nations in international peace and security efforts.     

How China Seeks to Foster an Asia‐Pacific Security Community: Peace through Consultation,Cooperation and Co‐development

Faced by increasing challenges to its national security and development, China has taken active measures to improve its security position in the Asia‐Pacific and to foster a lasting and commonly‐beneficial regional security order based on its “New Asian Security Concept”, highlighting common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable peace. Though the Chinese government tends to follow a bilateral rather than collective approach to consolidate its regional security stance for the time being, one can expect China to push forward an all‐inclusive and comprehensive platform for enhanced collective security. Yet China will not pursue a completely new security order to replace the old one. Instead, it is taking a pragmatic and incremental approach to shape the necessary environment for the evolution of the US‐led hegemonic order into a more pluralistic, inclusive, and comprehensive one, where peace and security are guaranteed through closer political consultation and more integrated economic and social development among regional countries. If Sino‐US relations can be well managed and China keeps projecting its growing power in a restrained and contributive way to provide more public goods for regional peace and development, then one can hope for an Asia‐Pacific security community to take shape in the coming decades.     

Regional economic communities and peacebuilding: The IGAD experience

This article examines the role of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in peacebuilding, considering its experience in peacebuilding in the greater Horn of Africa. The article critically examines IGAD’s performance in executing its mandates, as defined in the regional body’s constitutive act. IGAD’s peace mediation and peacebuilding efforts show mixed outcomes. This mixed outcome is attributed to a number of factors that include the structure of IGAD, its dependence on external funding, a dearth of capacity and the member states’ narrow national interests. The article argues that problems arising from the structure of IGAD are compounded by its heavy dependence on external aid; in addition, Ethiopia’s domination has rendered the organisation very weak in its peacebuilding efforts in the region compared to other African regional economic communities.     

Peacekeeping in a Francophone Space: Experiences of Ghanaian Peacekeepers in Côte d’Ivoire

Abstract

This article adds historical and empirical insights to the ongoing global debate on peace operations in francophone contexts, by providing a historical analysis of Ghana’s participation in francophone peacekeeping operations, with a special focus on Côte d’Ivoire. It investigates the interrelationship between anglo-francophone African peace operations and its implications for negotiating colonial discourses and barriers and as a means to promoting deeper regional integration. The paper argues that the fundamental reasons behind the difficulties experienced by Ghanaian peacekeepers in francophone peacekeeping theatres, especially in the case of Côte d’Ivoire, resulted from the differences in culture, language, ethnic proximity and regional politics. We demonstrate in our discussions that solving the language problem, for instance, will foster better understanding and cooperation, but also fast-track and contribute to effective regional peacekeeping efforts and facilitate the establishment of the elusive regional standby force.     

论东南亚地区秩序

进入21世纪以来,东南亚地区秩序发生了重大变化,东南亚的多极化格局已经形成。在这个格局中,中美日三个大国与东盟一起共同发挥作用,维护该地区的和平、稳定与繁荣。维护该地区的和平、稳定与繁荣既是中美日三个大国的共同目标,也是它们的共同利益。东盟是该地区一支重要的、不可替代的力量,中美日三个大国能否在该地区实现合作共赢,在很大程度上取决于东盟的影响和如何发挥作用。     

A Conceptual Analysis of the Six-Party Talks: Building Peace through Security Assurances

Abstract

Dissuading proliferators from developing nuclear weapons entails application of the global nonproliferation norm. Insomuch as proliferators' motivations to develop nuclear weapons are embedded in regional security concerns, security assurances taken for nuclear disarmament would include measures addressing these regional security concerns. Such measures are compatible with the need not to motivate other proliferators to develop nuclear weapons. The September 2005 Joint Statement of the Six-Party Talks incorporated a pledge to build a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula, which demonstrated the link between the regional undertakings and North Korea's denuclearization process. North Korea's nuclear test is no doubt a deviation from the document and the international community must retain collective sanctions. However, building a peace regime remains an effective means for defusing the nuclear standoff.     

Short term interests,long term perspectives: Balancing South Africa's peace and security approach in the EU–SA Strategic Partnership

ABSTRACT

South Africa’s peace and security outlook in the EU–South Africa Strategic Partnership has been guided by the content and substance of the founding document, which incorporates an interdependent approach to development. For South Africa, engagement in the EU–South Africa Strategic Partnership is framed by its historical background, its identity and the content of its foreign policy. South Africa's foreign policy in particular adopts an integrated approach to securing the state within its surrounding regional and continental geography. This article reviews South Africa's approach to peace and security, in the context of the strategic partnership. The article argues that, overall, South Africa's definition of peace and security is compatible with that of the EU; however, Pretoria's vision of how it provides peace and security has naturally changed in line with the varying international circumstances in which it has found itself. While this has proved difficult at times to reconcile, peace and security collaboration in the strategic partnership has managed to remain intact.     

Making the Strategic Partnership between Japan and Europe Work

EU-Japan cooperation on issues related to security includes efforts for eradicating terrorism, coordinating policy, and working together in crisis management operations. The EU and Japan share the same values and are societies based on democracy and the rule of law, and they have similar approaches to regional and global peace and stability. In 2015 the three focus areas are EU-Japan cooperation for global peace and stability, cooperation for contributing to addressing global challenges, and the promotion of the strategic partnership. This article suggests that bilateral cooperation between the EU and Japan will encourage multilateral commitment for global cooperation to resolve global problems.     

20世纪初韩国的和平思想——日本的“东洋和平论”批判和韩中日间合作的探索

20世纪初期,在日本帝国主义进行侵略和扩张的过程中,伊藤博文政府为了建立"东洋和平"和西方势力抗衡,主张在韩中日之间开展合作。但事实上这种主张不过是把当时以日本为中心的东北亚地区秩序合法化的说辞。针对这一点,安重根、安昌浩、申采浩等韩国独立运动家指出国家正处于丧失国权的危机之中,在对日本主张的"东洋和平"进行批判的同时,强调只有在韩国等周边国家的独立得到保障的情况下才有可能实现真正意义上的"东洋和平"。1910年日本帝国主义强行合并韩国以后,申采浩、朴殷植等韩国独立运动家在指出日本合并韩国的非法性的同时,还强调韩中日等东北亚地区国家间建立在信任基础上的交流和合作的重要性,主张韩国的独立有利于"东洋和平与世界和平"。尤其值得一提的是,柳麟锡在强调韩中关系在东北亚的重要性及中国作用的同时,还提出了韩中日三国在相互信任的基础上朝着共生关系发展的构想。     

Re‐evaluating Australia's “Cooperative Security” in Cambodia

Australia's role in resolving the conflict in Cambodia has been described as a triumph of cooperative security that achieved a balance between principles and pragmatism. The pursuit of cooperative security is a familiar theme in discussions of Australian diplomacy during the 1990s, yet there has been little scholarly consideration of whether this accurately captures the nature of Australian foreign policy at the time. This article explains Australia's conflict resolution role in Cambodia using an alternative, neoclassical realist framework. Specifically I demonstrate that expectations of reciprocity meant that Australia, when negotiating for peace in Cambodia, preferred bilateral over multilateral diplomacy. Secondly, Australia actively sought to lead the Cambodian peace‐keeping operation to enhance its regional security credentials. Finally, building closer ties with Vietnam was an important, often overlooked policy outcome.