How important is information format? An experimental study of home energy audit programs

Among alternative regulatory responses, information provision programs are receiving increasing attention despite the decidedly mixed evidence about their effectiveness. This paper provides detailed experimental evidence to demonstrate that for one important example of an information program, the use of energy audits to stimulate residential energy conservation, the effectiveness of the program is highly sensitive to the information processing behavior of the users of the information. Simple changes in the format of the information provided to homeowners produced marked improvements in the efficiency of consumer choices. The study illustrates Stern's conclusion in a recent issue of this journal that laboratory experimentation provides a useful alternative to model-based analysis of natural experiments, especially for policy design issues involving information acquisition and processing. The paper also offers conclusions about improving the effectiveness of home energy audits, as well as the entire class of information provision programs.     

Bias and Overconfidence in Parametric Models of Interactive Processes*

We assess the ability of logit, probit and numerous other parametric models to test a hypothesis that two variables interact in influencing the probability that some event will occur [Pr(Y)] in what we believe is a very common situation: when one's theory is insufficiently strong to dictate a specific functional form for the data generating process. Using Monte Carlo analysis, we find that many models yield overconfident inferences by generating 95% confidence intervals for estimates of the strength of interaction that are far too narrow, but that some logit and probit models produce approximately accurate intervals. Yet all models we study generate point estimates for the strength of interaction with large enough average error to often distort substantive conclusions. We propose an approach to make the most effective use of logit and probit in the situation of specification uncertainty, but argue that nonparametric models may ultimately prove to be superior.     

Causal Inference with Differential Measurement Error: Nonparametric Identification and Sensitivity Analysis

Political scientists have long been concerned about the validity of survey measurements. Although many have studied classical measurement error in linear regression models where the error is assumed to arise completely at random, in a number of situations the error may be correlated with the outcome. We analyze the impact of differential measurement error on causal estimation. The proposed nonparametric identification analysis avoids arbitrary modeling decisions and formally characterizes the roles of different assumptions. We show the serious consequences of differential misclassification and offer a new sensitivity analysis that allows researchers to evaluate the robustness of their conclusions. Our methods are motivated by a field experiment on democratic deliberations, in which one set of estimates potentially suffers from differential misclassification. We show that an analysis ignoring differential measurement error may considerably overestimate the causal effects. This finding contrasts with the case of classical measurement error, which always yields attenuation bias.     

Incorporating immigrant flows into microsimulation models

Building on the research on immigrant earnings reviewed in the first article of this series, "Research on Immigrant Earnings," the preceding article, "Adding Immigrants to Microsimulation Models," linked research results to various issues essential for incorporating immigrant earnings into microsimulation models. The discussions of that article were in terms of a closed system. That is, it examined a system in which immigrant earnings and emigration are forecast for a given population represented in the base sample in the microsimulation model. This article, the last in the series, addresses immigrant earnings projections for open systems--microsimulation models that include projections of future immigration. The article suggests a simple method to project future immigrants and their earnings. Including the future flow of immigrants in microsimulation models can dramatically affect the projected Social Security benefits of some groups.     

Hannah Arendt's analysis of antisemitism in The Origins of Totalitarianism: a critical appraisal

ABSTRACT

Hannah Arendt's seminal work The Origins of Totalitarianism begins with an extended study of the history of antisemitism. Many of Arendt's arguments in this groundbreaking text have been challenged by other scholars. Examining the chief contours of Arendt's account of the rise of modern antisemitism, Staudenmaier offers detailed reasons for approaching her conclusions sceptically while appreciating the book's other virtues. Arendt's repeated reliance on antisemitic sources, her inconsistent analysis of assimilation, her overstated distinction between social and political dimensions of anti-Jewish sentiment, and her emphasis on partial Jewish responsibility for antisemitism indicate fundamental problems with her interpretation of the historical record. A thorough critical appraisal of Arendt's argument offers an opportunity for both her admirers and her detractors to come to terms concretely with the contradictory aspects of her historical legacy.     

Changing Regulation and Governance of Finnish Energy Policy Making: New Rules but Old Elites?

Energy policy making is commonly seen as a sector dominated more by experts and technocrats than politicians. Regulation of Finnish energy policy, which was traditionally characterized by state‐centeredness and detailed governmental control, was step by step annulled in the mid‐1980s on, and a deregulation policy was introduced. The return of regulation can be timed to in the beginning of the twenty‐first century, being the result of the global debate and measures dealing with climate change. The purpose of this study was to assess the extent to which the changes of operational environment have transformed the power structure of Finnish energy policy making and whether the key actors constitute a coherent energy elite in terms of attitudinal unanimity and interaction networks. Methodologically the study was based on three sets of elite interview data collected in 1987, 1997, and 2009 and a postal survey conducted among the citizenry in 2007. The major finding was that despite fundamental changes in the operational environment the power structure of the energy sector policy making has been fairly stable from 1987 to 2009 and the old cohesive energy elite is still in power.     

Politics as usual? Assessing the extent and content of candidate-level online campaigning at the 2015 UK general election

There has been much work done investigating the adoption of online campaigns in UK general election campaigns. Although some research has focussed on the candidate-level (Gibson, R., W. Lusoli, and S. Ward. 2008. “Nationalizing and Normalizing the Local? A Comparative Analysis of Online Candidate Campaigning in Australia and Britain.” Journal of Information Technology and Politics 4: 15–30; Lee, B. 2014. “Window Dressing 2.0: Constituency-level Web Campaigns in the 2010 UK General Election.” Politics 34 (1): 45–57; Southern, R. 2015. “Is Web 2.0 Providing a Voice for Outsiders? A Comparison of Personal Web Site and Social Media Use by Candidates at the 2010 UK General Election.” Journal of Information Technology &; Politics 12 (1): 1–17), this is an under-researched area. This is despite early web-campaign scholars (Margolis, M., and D. Resnick. 2000. Politics as Usual: The Cyberspace Revolution. Sage) maintaining that e-campaigning could provide the most important advantages to campaigns at the candidate level. In light of this, the paper aims to provide the most comprehensive study of candidate-level online campaigning carried out in the UK to date. This paper employs original data, measuring website and social media use by candidates during the 2015 UK general election campaign. These data allow for a detailed explanation of the normalization thesis, one of the leading theories in the field of e-campaigns. The findings here are significant as there are several instances where normalization does not hold, suggesting that online tools are contributing to campaign change. Green Party candidates subverted normalization to a significant degree, particularly on social media. Assessing the campaign content, a quarter of candidates adopted more than one interactive feature on their website and furthermore, interactive use of Twitter was the most common type of Twitter use.     

Designing and Implementing Cross‐Sector Collaborations: Needed and Challenging

Theoretical and empirical work on collaboration has proliferated in the last decade. The authors’ 2006 article on designing and implementing cross‐sector collaborations was a part of, and helped stimulate, this growth. This article reviews the authors’ and others’ important theoretical frameworks from the last decade, along with key empirical results. Research indicates how complicated and challenging collaboration can be, even though it may be needed now more than ever. The article concludes with a summary of areas in which scholarship offers reasonably settled conclusions and an extensive list of recommendations for future research. The authors favor research that takes a dynamic, multilevel systems view and makes use of both quantitative and qualitative methods, especially using longitudinal comparative case studies.     

Organizational Resources and Methods of Participation

This report deals with the influence of various organizational resources upon methods of participation. We found it useful to subdivide the concept of political participation into four groups: Input participation, decision participation, consumer participation, and respondent participation. Using data from one city and one sector we cannot suggest any general conclusions. Our findings show these various methods of participation to be highly intercorrelated and that the various methods of participation - along with organizational resources as income and staff, the contextual variable, and preoccupation with the local system level - influenced each method of participation. This means that we have to take the positions of organizations in the political system into consideration if we want to study their participation in the political processes. The resources stemning from positions in the political system are perhaps more influential upon the method of participation than the traditional organizational resource variables.
The process of consuming public finances is not without political effects. Consumer participation is related both to decision participation and to input participation. Our study also indicates that it is wrong to assume closed models with no feedback loops when we study relations between interest organizations and public authorities.     

Social Desirability Bias in Measuring Public Service Motivation

ABSTRACT

Public service motivation (PSM) is usually measured using self-report data, which suggests that PSM measures can be influenced by social desirability bias. This study investigates whether respondents tend to report an inflated view of their attitudes and orientations during surveys on PSM. Experimental survey research (list experiment) is conducted to analyze the magnitude of social desirability bias in PSM measurements and to examine the relationship between socio-demographic factors and social desirability bias in Korea. The results show evidence of social desirability responding bias, although the pattern of bias varies across socio-demographic subgroups. Respondents in their forties or fifties, conservatives, Protestants, and those without a religious affiliation show more bias than other subgroups. This finding implies that correlational analysis in PSM research may be prone to the moderating effect of social desirability bias. Research that does not recognize and compensate for this bias may produce unwarranted theoretical or practical conclusions.     

The dynamic political economy of support for Barack Obama during the 2008 presidential election campaign

In recent years, students of voting behavior have become increasingly interested in valence politics models of electoral choice. These models share the core assumption that key issues in electoral politicds typically are ones upon which there is a widespread public consensus on the goals of public policy. The present paper uses latent curve modeling procedures and data from a six-wave national panel survey of the American electorate to investigate the dynamic effects of voters’ concerns with the worsening economy—a valence issue par excellence—in the skein of causal forces at work in the 2008 presidential election campaign. As the campaign developed, the economy became the dominant issue. Although the massively negative public reaction to increasingly perilous economic conditions was not the only factor at work in 2008, dynamic multivariate analyses show that mounting worries about the economy played an important role in fueling Barack Obama’s successful run for the presidency.     

Multimodal turn allocation in ESL peer group discussions

This article reports on multimodal practices used by English as a Second Language students as they work to distribute primary speakership within their peer group discussions. Following Goodwin’s participation framework, the focus is on the embodied conducts of the non-talking recipients and their nonvocal displays of emerging speakership in peer discussions. Analyses of the non-primary speakers’ gaze, gestures, touch, and bodily conduct show that the students’ turn allocation practices embody their sensitivity to the spatial and visual field of co-participants, project changing participation frameworks, and achieve incremental coordination of speaker nomination. Explorations of such nonvocal behaviors lead to a detailed understanding of the students’ embodied participation frameworks and the visible processes through which the students claim or avoid speakership during peer group discussions.     

Managing the Environment: Rhetoric, Policy and Reality

This article argues that, despite environmental issues climbing higher on the political agenda and considerable recent policy activity, rhetoric is not matched by reality in our efforts to manage the Australian environment. We integrate the imperatives emerging from the policy and sustainability literatures and from actual policy, with detailed work on wildlife conservation in Victoria's Central Highlands. Our analysis demonstrates that, rather than undertaking the more intensive policy and 'adaptive management' that is needed, governments are often doing less and may actually be 'taking their hands of their wheel'. Some public policy and administration implications of the emerging policy field of sustainability are illustrated.     

Decision-making for Urban Technology

This article describes the decision-making process that is involved in introducing innovations to local public organizations. It defines six stages of the process of innovating in the public sector, as well as the four sets of actors involved in the process. The article is based on the findings of a study conducted for the National Science Foundation, entitled Adoption and Utilization of Urban Technology: A Decision-Making Process (1976). In this study, twenty case histories of urban innovation in Syracuse and Rochester, New York, provided an in-depth data base on decision-making with respect to new technology in the local public sector. The findings in these twenty cases are cited, together with an analysis of the factors that lead to success or failure. The role of urban entrepreneurship and coalition-building and its vital impact on the introduction of new technology is also examined. Some previous misconceptions regarding innovation in urban government are revealed in the conclusions. Also, the skills of key actors, especially bureaucratic entrepreneurs, that are necessary for succesful local innovation are depicted.     

Network Structure and Governance Performance: What Makes a Difference?

Comparing and evaluating the performance of governance networks are important tasks for researchers and practitioners of network governance and public administration. Limited by the lack of network data across space and time, the study of network performance and effectiveness at the network level is not on pace with advances in theories and methodologies in network analysis. With a novel methodology to measure clean energy governance networks using hyperlink network analysis across the contiguous United States, this article collects a large sample of self‐organizing policy networks in the same policy domain across geographic locations. This article proposes that governance networks with high overall bridging and bonding social capital perform better. Regression analyses show that network structures have statistically significant effects on governance outcomes. States with high average closeness and average clustering in their governance networks are more likely to have faster clean energy development.     

Patterns within prejudice: antisemitism in the United States in the 1940s

ABSTRACT

Ziege compares two field studies on ethnocentrism, racism and antisemitism among American workers during the Second World War: ‘Antisemitism among American Labor’ (1945) by the Frankfurt Institute of Social Research (ISR) in exile and Wartime Shipyard (1947) by Katherine Archibald at the University of California at Berkeley. The former was a large-scale team project headed by Friedrich Pollock, Theodor W. Adorno and Paul Massing, who had at their disposal a large number of fieldworkers as well as the support of the trade unions. Archibald worked in complete isolation. Yet, in spite of this and major differences in design and theory, the European Marxists and the American liberal came to similar conclusions: hostility towards Jews at that time had to be analysed in connection with hostility towards other groups (including women, Blacks, labourers from the American South and other ethnic and social minorities) and within the context of the war and the Holocaust. While aware of the innovations achieved in research by means of public opinion polls, both studies were pioneering in their ambition to improve on quantitative research by means of non-quantitative procedures and qualitative-participatory observation. Ziege links these studies to a third study, The Authoritarian Personality (1950), conducted by the ISR, particularly Adorno, which poses the question of how relevant the ISR's critical theory was for the innovations achieved in studies of prejudice, when Archibald's study, which eschewed social theory, arrived at similar conclusions regarding antisemitism.     

Analytical debates and policy learning: analysis and change in the federal bureaucracy

One of the primary agents of change within federal organizations is the policy analyst. This is so because analysts are formally charged with critiquing existing policies and the organizations that implement them, and with proposing new policies and implementation procedures. But it is often forgotten by both proponents and critics of policy analysis that analysts themselves work within — are are responsive to — an organizational context. This paper provides an attempt to view analysis as a process that initiates and responds to policy change, and that is constrained by the organizational context within which analysis takes place. A set of cases, drawn from energy policy at the federal level, are used to illustrate that process.     

Presidential address— Seeing through the fog

All public policies have two things in common. They deal with the future and, as a result, they are based on forecasts or projections. The forecasts or projections may be implicit or based on naive extrapolation or ad hoc assumptions. They may be explicit and based on elaborate extrapolations or on behavioral models. In either case, unfortunately, they are notoriously unreliable. In fact, they almost always are wrong—sometimes just a bit wrong, but often massively wrong. Nonetheless, forecasts are what distinguishes reasoned planning from blind action. Without forecasts, we would be totally at sea. That we have to use forecasts or projections, that we know they will be wrong, and that they usually are wrong raise some difficult questions for policy analysis and policymaking. Regrettably, in my view, they receive too little attention.2 My purpose today is to urge that they receive more. My comments are intended to make four points. First, it is important for policymakers to appreciate how errorprone forecasts and projections actually are. Second, it is important not to permit the availability of projections or forecasts to obscure fundamental policy questions that are important in any plausible scenario. Third, uncertainty means that, where possible, it is prudent to design policies with builtin flexibility that respond automatically to diverse possible outcomes. Fourth, where builtin flexibility is impossible, complete analyses should take into account the consequences if forecasts prove wrong, and weigh those consequences against the results of postponing action until information improves or against other policies under the plausible range of possible outcomes. © 2000 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Are China and Japan rivals in Latin America? A rivalry perception analysis

Abstract

This article investigates whether the People’s Republic of China and Japan perceive each other as rivals in Latin America (LA; both the Chinese and Japanese governments tend to refer to the region as Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), but for the purposes of this article we focus mainly on LA), and what impact such a perception might have on their foreign policy decision-making. We take LA as a case study because China’s and Japan’s recent (re-)engagement there began almost simultaneously in the early 2000s, and has developed against the background of domestic leadership transitions, growing demands for energy and markets, as well as international political agendas in which LA might play a key role. Developing the work of Thompson [(1995). Principal rivalries. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 39 (2), 195–223; (2001). Identifying rivals and rivalries in world politics. International Studies Quarterly, 45(4), 557–586] and Vasquez [(1993). The War Puzzle. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press; (1996). Distinguishing rivals that go to war from those that do not: Aa quantitative comparative case study of the two paths to war. International Studies Quarterly, 40 (4), 531–558] on rivalry, in combination with perception theory [Jervis, R. (1976). Perception and misperception in international politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press], the article suggests three indicators by which to measure the extent to which China and Japan might perceive each other as rivals. Drawing on content analysis of a range of Chinese- and Japanese-language official writing, news reports, and academic analysis, the article argues that, despite some media representation of China and Japan as competitors for resources and power in LA, in fact mutual perceptions concerning rivalry have not affected LA policy decisions of these two countries.