2007-2008年东盟经济回顾与展望

2007年是亚洲金融危机10周年，适逢东盟成立40周年和《东盟宪章》签署，因此对东盟来说，2007年是不平常的一年。尽管遇到区域内外多种不利因素的干扰，2007年东盟经济总体上仍然保持了较快增长，对外贸易增长加快，个别国家进出口创历史新高，东盟与中国的贸易获得突破性进展，东盟再次成为世界资本的投资热点。展望2008年，东盟面临不少挑战，但从主导因素来看，从影响东盟经济趋势的动态因素来看，新的一年东盟经济有望获得平稳较快发展。     

日本与东盟的经济相互依赖分析——基于贸易与FDI的实证分析

日本与东盟的经贸合作在日本对外经济合作中占有优势地位。随着东盟地位和作用的提升，东盟和日本的经贸关系从依赖发展为相互依赖。近二十年来，在内外多重因素的影响下，日本与东盟的经济相互依赖关系发生了深刻变化。本文旨在通过发展态势、国别结构和评价三个方面对日本与东盟经济相互依赖关系的变化进行研究，对双边关系中的敏感性和脆弱性进行比较分析。     

东盟经济合作面临的挑战与发展趋势

自东盟成立以来，区域内经济合作始终滞缓拖沓，乏善可陈。20世纪90年代开始，东盟加速了经济领域的合作步伐，确定了具体的目标和发展方向。但东盟经济合作越向前发展，其所面临的困难和挑战也越大。今后东盟经济合作能否按预期的目标发展，关键在于能否协调成员国之间的不同意见，使其所推行的一系列合作方案如期实行。     

共同应对内外挑战 努力维护“中心地位”——东盟2022年回顾与2023年展望

2022年，由于国际形势复杂多变，新冠疫情持续肆虐，乌克兰危机升级，东盟面临一系列内外风险和挑战。东盟轮值主席国柬埔寨以“东盟：共同应对挑战”为主题，以推动政治安全、经济和社会文化三大共同体建设为核心事项，继续致力维护地区和平稳定与发展繁荣，统筹疫情防控与经济发展，构建以人为本、共同发展的东盟共同体，维护东盟统一性和“中心性”。这一年，东盟多次派特使访问缅甸，积极推动缅甸和平进程。原则上同意接纳东帝汶成为第11个东盟成员国，实现东盟扩容。经济上基本克服疫情影响，重视旅游业和数字经济发展潜力，加强国际和区域经济合作，努力促进经济全面复苏。对外关系上积极应对大国博弈，进一步巩固与中国的政治、经济和人文交流等各领域合作，将东盟与美国、印度的关系升级为全面战略伙伴关系，加强成员国与外部合作伙伴之间的联系，努力构建以东盟为中心的外交网络。展望2023年，东盟轮值主席国印度尼西亚将以“东盟事务：增长的中心”为主题，聚焦东盟内部事务及经济增长中心两大方面，加强东盟能力和有效性、维护东盟的团结及东盟中心地位，促进东盟经济发展。东盟将共同应对国际形势中的机遇和挑战，推动东盟共同体建设和可持续发展，提升东...     

日本-东盟CEP框架下的区域产业分工

2008年4月14日，日本与东盟在京都签署了《日本一东盟全面经济伙伴关系协定》（AJCEP）。AJCEP的签署，这是2002年1月以来日本对东盟经济外交取得的最重大成果。作为一个典型的“南北”型协定，同时也是日本首个与区域经济组织签署的自由贸易协定，AJCEP的出现既是日本对自身经济结构问题、区域经济一体化潮流和东亚区域产业分工发展的一种回应，又必将对今后的东亚区域产业分工格局产生重大影响。     

东盟经济一体化进程剖析

东盟是发展中国家较早诞生的地区性组织之一,目标是推进本地区政治、经济、社会、文化等领域的合作。经过多年的努力,东盟经济合作有了长足的发展,但1992年以前其经济合作一直局限于优惠贸易安排阶段。90年代,在世界经济区域集团化迅速发展的形势下,东盟加快经济合作步伐,于1992年东盟第四次首脑会议上决定建立自由贸易区,此     

中国-东盟经济关系20年：回顾与展望

2011年是中国与东盟建立对话伙伴关系20周年。20年来,随着中国与东盟战略伙伴关系的确立和中国-东盟自由贸易区的全面建成,中国与东盟经济关系呈现出一系列新的格局变化。展望未来,中国与东盟经济关系发展将面临新的机遇和挑战。     

东盟合作机制与合作原则改革的争论及前景

今年是东盟成立40周年。经过40年的发展，东盟已经从原来的6国发展成为涵盖整个东南亚地区10国，GDP总额接近1万亿美元，对外贸易总额1．3万亿美元，在国际和地区事务中发挥着重要作用的国家集团。在2003年底于印度尼西亚巴厘岛举行的东盟峰会上，东盟各国领导人签署了具有里程碑意义的《第二巴厘协定》，决定到2020年将东盟建设成为东盟经济共同体、安全共同体、社会和文化共同体。目前，东盟的发展正处于十字路口，     

近十年中国—东盟经济关系新格局

2013年是中国与东盟建立战略伙伴关系10周年。10年来,随着中国与东盟战略伙伴关系的确立和中国—东盟自由贸易区如期建成,中国与东盟经济关系呈现出一系列新的格局变化。展望未来,中国与东盟经济关系发展将面临新的机遇和挑战。     

泛北部湾区域经济合作的法律分析及广西的应对

东盟10国领导人于2007年11月20日在新加坡签署《东盟宪章》，这预示着东盟共同体将正式建立。泛北部湾经济合作是中国与东盟经贸合作关系在次区域的进一步深化和细化，对该区域内相关国家及地区的经济社会发展将产生重大影响。笔者不揣浅陋，就泛北部湾经济合作可能面临的法律问题与注意事项，及广西应采取的应对措施，谈些管见。     

Explaining US–China economic imbalances: a social perspective

China has witnessed a continual drop in the labour income share of its gross domestic product (GDP) and a steep rise in income that has caused a savings glut and high investments. China’s shrinking domestic demand indicates that its output growth must increasingly rely on expanded manufacturing exports to the US. China’s state accommodation for US offshoring further aggravates trade imbalances between the two countries. The United States is also experiencing a rise in social inequality associated with a decline in savings that is a fundamental cause of its current-account deficit with China. The swelling US service sector interacts with a high ratio of consumption to income, and the liberal US policy for cost outsourcing to China has a complicated impact on employment and an adverse effect on inequality.     

越南加入世界贸易组织后贸易制度的变迁

一、加入世界贸易组织后越南对外贸易的表现 加入世界贸易组织(以下简称WTO)后,越南对外贸易发展迅速,2007年和2008年出口都大幅增长,但由于全球金融危机的影响,从2008年8月开始,出口逐月下降,同时贸易逆差仍然巨大.     

What Kinds of Trade Liberalization Agreements Do People in Developing Countries Want?

One of the most striking developments in the global economy in the past decades is the rapid proliferation of preferential trade agreements (PTAs), with many of them concluded among or with participation of developing countries. On the presumption that current popular debates on trade policy are not so much about whether citizens want free trade but rather what kinds of trade liberalization they want, we examine individual trade policy preferences with regard to PTAs that can vary in content along several dimensions. To that end we carried out conjoint choice experiments embedded in representative surveys in three developing countries that differ strongly in income levels, political system, and trade liberalization history: Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Vietnam. We conceptualize trade policy preferences as preferences over the scale and scope of trade liberalization, environmental and labor standards, and labor market access (migration). Two main findings emerge. First, non-economic considerations, such as sympathy/antipathy toward particular countries and environmental and labor rights concerns influence citizens’ preferences at least as much as factors based on standard economic logic. Second, preferences over particular facets (attributes) of trade liberalization, that is PTA content, are surprisingly consistent across countries, despite strong differences in macro-economic and political context.     

India: In Search of the Drivers of the Next Wave of Growth

India’s unprecedented growth since the mid-1990s and increased macroeconomic resilience has been against the backdrop of wide-ranging reforms, growing trade and financial integration, buoyant external demand, and ample global liquidity. Looking ahead, like most emerging markets, India is likely to face stronger headwinds, with less buoyant external financing conditions, and potentially lower growth in advanced markets. This raises questions about the sustainability of growth, sources of future growth, and reform priorities for restoring the momentum of convergence to higher income levels. Using the “distance to frontier” approach, the analysis in this article finds that the sizeable convergence gaps with respect to advanced and other emerging market economies imply considerable opportunities for catch-up. But structural transformation and convergence to higher living standards in India will be conditional on policy and institutional reforms to alleviate market and government failures, as well as on the ability of labor and capital to move toward higher-productivity sectors and activities.     

论卢布和外汇在俄罗斯经济发展中的作用

自俄罗斯独立以来,卢布汇率和外汇政策一直变化莫测。稳定卢布汇率,制定切实可行的外汇政 策,正确认识卢布、美元、欧元在俄罗斯经济中的地位。特别是在世界经济一体化的进程中,要发挥卢布对世界 经济的影响以及使俄罗斯尽快加入世界贸易组织,重返国际大家庭。     

中国—东盟贸易模型的演进和变迁——从亚洲金融危机到东亚一体化加深（1997～2004年）

过去10年间，东亚经历灾难性的亚洲金融危机和之后的蓬勃发展的区域经济一体化加深两个完全不同的阶段，对东亚地区的经济发展以及世界经济格局都产生了迥异而深远的影响。亚洲金融危机导致东南亚国家和除中国外的东亚国家货币大幅贬值，股票价格和资产价格下跌，许多国家多年的经济繁荣毁于一旦，不仅破坏了东亚乃至全球的金融体系，而且对世界经济增长以及贸易流量产生了严重的消极影响。     

Crossing the threshold: A positive analysis of IBRD graduation policy

According to World Bank policy, countries remain eligible to borrow from the IBRD until they are able to sustain long-term development without further recourse to Bank financing. Graduation from IBRD is not an automatic consequence of reaching a particular income level, but rather is supposed to be based on a determination of whether the country has reached a level of institutional development and capital-market access that enables it to sustain its own development process without recourse to Bank funding. This paper takes a positive approach to IBRD graduation policy, investigating what income and non-income factors appear to have influenced graduation status in recent decades, based on panel data for 1982 through 2009. Explanatory variables include the per-capita income of the country, as well as measures of institutional development and market access that are cited as criteria by the graduation policy, and other plausible explanatory variables that capture the levels of economic development and vulnerability of the country. We find that the observed correlates of Bank graduation status are generally consistent with the stated policy. Countries that are wealthier, more creditworthy, more institutionally developed, and are less vulnerable to trade, financial, and other shocks are more likely to be graduates. Predicted probabilities generated by the model conform closely to the actual graduation and de-graduation experiences of Trinidad and Tobago and Korea, among other countries, and suggest that Hungary and Latvia may have graduated prematurely—a prediction subsequently borne out by the large loans that they later received from the IBRD in the wake of the global financial crisis.     

辽宁省产业结构与经济增长实证分析

从对辽宁省的产业结构状况及细分的行业结构状况进行实证分析发现:辽宁省的第三产业相对于第一和第二产业而言已经过大,它的增加值对国内生产总值的产出弹性较小,制约了其他产业对国内生产总值的贡献;在细分行业中,辽宁省的整体经济中能最有效地拉动经济增长的是第一产业和第二产业中的建筑业,其次是第三产业中的批发零售餐饮业。     

The most-favored nation rule in principle and practice: Discrimination in the GATT

The conflicts of interest that prevailed between the great powers in the wake of the First World War eviscerated their ability to respond collectively to the advent of the Great Depression. Instead, each turned to discriminatory trade barriers and trade blocs to try to revive domestic output. Persuaded that trade discrimination exacerbated the political tensions that erupted in World War II, policy makers constructed a postwar economic order that institutionalized nondiscrimination. Thus, Article 1 of the charter of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) mandates most-favored nation (MFN) treatment. We argue here that the MFN clause itself encouraged the adoption of practices and policies that actually recreated discrimination. In particular, we argue, developing countries, long regarded as victims of discrimination, institutionalized it in their negotiations with each other. We examine two developing country PTAs that included about 80 percent of all developing-country GATT members by output (the Global System of Trade Preferences and the Protocol Relating to Trade Negotiations). We show that as in the GATT writ large, their patterns of tariff cuts and trade expansion were highly skewed toward a small number of their largest members. In trying to avoid discrimination, policy makers actually encouraged its de facto adoption.     

新形势下中国与老挝双边贸易关系研究

本文基于中国与老挝贸易的发展现状与特点,从双边贸易结构、双边贸易政策和贸易人才与基础设施等方面探讨了中老双边贸易存在的问题,在此基础上为促进中老双边贸易提出一些看法,即以优势互补促进中老双边贸易的发展、以中国—东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)建立为契机促进中老双边贸易的发展。