Trade liberalization and the new regionalism in the Asia-Pacific: taking stock of recent events

In the aftermath of the regional financial crisis of 1997–98,many Asian economies have underscored the need consciously andaggressively to explore alternative liberalization paths or‘fallback positions’. This is where the ‘newregionalism’ or new regional trade agreements (RTAs) becomerelevant. This paper explores some of the primary rationalebehind, and main concerns regarding, the proliferation of bilateraland plurilateral trade pacts in the Asia-Pacific region. Italso considers the ‘dynamic time path’ of AsianRTAs. Do they facilitate or hinder multilateral trade liberalization?     

Monetary policy and overinvestment in East Asia and Europe

The paper analyzes the role of monetary policy for cyclical movements of investment and asset markets in East Asia and Europe based on a Mises-Hayek overinvestment framework. It is shown how the gradual global decline of interest rates has triggered wandering overinvestment cycles in Japan, Southeast Asia, and China. Similarly, it is shown how a one-size monetary policy within the European Monetary Union has not preserved the European Monetary Union from idiosyncratic economic development and crisis because of uncoordinated fiscal policies. With monetary policy crisis management being argued to impede financial and economic restructuring, a timely exit from ultra-expansionary monetary policies is recommended for both East Asia and Europe to reconstitute economic stability and growth.     

Environmental cooperation of Northeast Asia: transboundary air pollution

The puzzle of why Northeast Asian countries do not have anyenvironmental cooperation comparable to Europe's successfulregulatory regime even though both regions have borne similarconditions of the atmospheric problem has been explored. Inorder to answer this question, the author shed light on someof the conditions in Northeast Asia that would be necessaryfor regional cooperation to take place, by examining the factorsthat shape the environmental foreign policy of sovereign states.The success of Europe's regional cooperation in dealing withacid rain has been investigated, through the lens of interest-basedand epistemic community approaches. The interest-based approachprovides two factors – ecological vulnerability and economiccost – to show why some countries have taken more activepositions than others. In addition, the author argues that onemore factor is necessary, the existence of an epistemic community,out of the knowledge-based community perspective, because evenself-interested states have difficulties in defining their interestsdue to high uncertainty and complexity about developing goalsand preferences. After applying the two perspectives to thecooperation of Northeast Asian countries, it is found that lackof domestic and regional consensus on ecological vulnerabilityto transboundary acid deposition and the high economic costsof reducing emission have contributed to slow development ofthe cooperation of Northeast Asia. In addition, the lack ofsolid expert communities in Japan, as a leading country, couldhinder Northeast Asian countries from speeding up the transitiontoward regulatory regime formation from the current informationsharing cooperation. Received for publication August 12, 2005. Accepted for publication December 22, 2006.     

东亚货币合作的模式选择与中国的对策研究

货币合作是当今国际金融领域的热点议题。从已有的货币合作实践看,基于经济高度一体化的欧洲形成了单一货币形式,即欧元产生;相应的在拉美国家也出现了美元化趋势。而按照Mundell金融稳定性三岛的预言,作为世界经济发展重要一极的亚洲并没有出现单一的货币形式。在面对有缺陷的现行国际货币制度之下,东亚国家需要在现实的经济合作基础之上,选择合适的货币合作模式,推动东亚经济和货币一体化进程。这既是区域经济发展的需要,也是区域经济安全的需要。     

东亚金融合作与制约因素

东亚地区的经济发展在世界经济中占有比较重要的位置,是世界上三大经济区之一,各种形式的经济合作也在不同的层面上不同程度地有所发展.在金融领域,东亚国家政府和学术界提出了各种合作倡议和构想,在有的方面取得了进展.但总的看,东亚地区货币、金融合作相对滞后,迄未形成较高层次的制度化合作安排.这对东亚国家规避金融风险、防止金融危机及东亚经济一体化的发展都不利.     

宏观经济相互依存与东亚货币合作可行性

东亚地区存在两个层面的宏观经济相互依存。第一个层面是东亚与美国经济的相互依存,第二个层面是东亚区域内部经济的相互依存。全球性金融危机充分体现了东亚和美国之间经济相互依存的不对称性,而这种不对称性是不能够长期持续的,全球性金融危机促使东亚加强区域、国际的经济协调,验证了相互依存理论的合理性。相互依存的东亚需要通过政策的协调解决宏观经济政策的外部性和溢出效应问题,因而东亚地区进行货币合作的可行性较高。     

The International Monetary Fund: A review of the recent evidence

A review of recent quantitative studies on the International Monetary Fund reveals that much of the conventional wisdom is incorrect. Recent studies have demonstrated a new degree of methodological rigor, have drawn more heavily upon insights from political science, and have asked a number of new questions. We review studies of participation in IMF programs, design of IMF conditionality, implementation and enforcement of IMF conditions, conventional program effects and catalytic effects. At every stage, we find substantial evidence of the influence of major IMF shareholders, of the Fund’s own organizational imperatives, and of domestic politics within borrowing countries. We conclude that very little is known with certainty about the effects of IMF lending, but that a great deal has been learned about the mechanics of IMF programs that will have to be taken into account in order to obtain unbiased estimates of those effects.

中俄在东北亚地区战略协作方向探析

中俄均重视东北亚国家外交,今后两国将在四个方向上加强战略协作.它们是:我国东北振兴与俄远东开发的互动;东北亚地区能源及环保合作;推进东北亚区域经济一体化;维护东北亚地区的和平与安全.     

东亚货币金融合作的深化:从“清迈倡议”到“清迈倡议多边化”

2008年的全球金融风暴对东亚国家的货币金融稳定带来了严峻的挑战,并促使东亚国家加强区域货币金融领域的合作.东亚"10+3"的财长们于2009年12月发表了有关"清迈倡议多边化"(CMIM)的联合声明,决定成立采取自我管理的区域外汇储备库安排(SRPA)作为"清迈协议多边化"的具体形式.从2000年以双边货币互换为特征的"清迈倡议"(CMI)到以自我管理的区域外汇库安排为特征的"清迈倡议多边化"过渡与发展,表明了东亚"10+3"货币金融合作进一步走向深化.     

Towards green energy cooperation in Northeast Asia: implications from European experiences

Faced with the dual challenge of depletion of fossil fuels and climate change, three Northeast Asian countries—China, Japan and Korea—introduced green energy initiatives in recent years. Even though the portion of renewable energy in the energy mix has been limited, a rapid shift to green initiatives has given a strong boost to renewable energy resources. Cooperation with respect to green energy in Northeast Asia (NEA) may eventually overcome the geopolitical constraints and zero-sum nature of the fossil fuel supply in the region. However, this cooperation also faces a number of obstacles to be overcome. Energy cooperation in NEA is still in an embryonic stage, and the level of institutionalisation is low. Green energy cooperation is not free from neo-mercantilist competition either, as the current green initiatives entail elements of strong industrial policy. European experience may shed light on the burgeoning green energy cooperation in NEA, in terms of methods and scope. The EU is currently adopting the most advanced policies on renewable energy and climate change. A series of green energy initiatives has provided a concrete platform for further green energy cooperation that could be pursued at the Union level. On the other hand, the history of European energy cooperation indicates that a long stage of market integration, institutional development and policy coordination are prerequisite. Northeast Asian green energy cooperation should be based on a continued momentum of green initiatives at the domestic level as well as the advancement of sub-regional institutional build-up. Regional multilateral institutions, such as Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, Association of Southeast Asian Nations Plus Three and ASEAN Regional Forum, as well as diverse international organisations and Track II institutions can provide a useful venue for Northeast Asian countries to share information and adopt a common position towards green energy cooperation.     

劳动力跨境流动和东亚货币合作

东亚各国和地区不同程度的美元化使传统意义上的本地货币定义变得不再准确,为了防止成为全球经济失衡的最大受害地区,东亚各国和地区之间展开货币合作是必然选择①。问题在于,货币合作如何与实体经济合作相匹配。《清迈协议》签订后,东亚货币合作需进一步深化,不能仅停留在初级     

Regional energy cooperation in North East Asia: Lessons from the European Experience

The three major oil importing countries of Northeast Asia—China, Japan and South Korea—are concerned about future security of energy supplies to fuel their dynamic economic activity. Currently all three countries are highly dependent on imports of oil from the Middle East, a region with inherent political instability. Russia’s rich reserves of oil and gas in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East offer an obvious alternative. Given the geographical proximity of Russia and its desire to increase its energy exports to Northeast Asia, there is huge potential for cooperation. So far there has been no real intra-regional cooperation and no common external policy towards Russia. Despite obvious differences between Europe and North East Asia, the European model of energy cooperation, developed over the past 50 years, offers some useful lessons.

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东亚区域货币合作与我国的参与对策

由美国著名经济学家蒙代尔提出的最优货币区理论为区域货币一体化奠定了理论基础,而欧盟的实践使这一理论变成了现实。东亚金融危机的爆发,加快了东亚区域货币合作的进程。而作为已经加入WTO同时又是东亚最大发展中国家的中国,应该积极参与东亚区域货币合作,并针对这一趋势做出适当的对策选择。     

Civil society,political stability,and state power in Central Asia: cooperation and contestation

This article develops a concept of civil society in Central Asia distinct from that which emerged from the East European communist societies of the late 1980s. Kazakhstan presents a case study of a civil society that conceptually can be located between the vibrant civil society of the Baltic democracies and the civil society of the strongly repressive environments of Belarus or Uzbekistan. Kazakhstan's authoritarian structures and cultural traditions make it difficult to develop strong independent civic organizations – cooperation tends to mark state-civil society relations more than contestation, which shaped much of Eastern Europe's experience. Even in a context of relative affluence where civil society organizations are allowed some space to engage in critical activities, contestation tends to be minimized. This is only partially related to state suppression and cooptation; a political culture that views democratic processes as potentially destabilizing is also a significant factor. Kazakhstan represents a distinct Central Asian model of civil society, comparable to Russia but qualitatively different from that found in either Eastern or Western Europe, where civil society is less willing to confront the state, more cooperative with the authoritarian system, and wary of the potential for civic activism to degenerate into instability. Differentiating types of civil society is important because a key component of Western democracy assistance programmes has been providing assistance to build and strengthen civil societies. By refining our understanding of distinct civil society patterns in Central Asia, we can enhance our knowledge of political processes in this critical region, and we may improve the effectiveness of democracy assistance programmes. The study is grounded in field research, interviews, civil society workshops, survey research, and government documents.     

中国东北地区与东北亚的经济交流

在东北三省中 ,辽宁省地理位置优越 ,贸易量也最大 ,目前正在寻求市场的多样化发展。吉林省最大的贸易伙伴是韩国 ,有大量的劳务输出人员 ,突出的问题是边境流动人员复杂。黑龙江省主要从事对俄贸易 ,在外派劳务上存在着诸多问题。东北亚地区间的贸易正从封闭走向开放 ,但仍存在障碍     

东亚货币合作经济基础的实证分析

随着经济全球化和区域化的发展,世界范围内的区域金融合作也深入开展起来。欧元的成功实践为东亚国家（地区）开展货币合作提供了良好的示范,最优货币区理论的提出及发展为东亚货币合作提供了理论指导。东亚国家货币合作的经济基础有了很大的提高,为进一步开展更深层次的合作提供了保证。东亚国家可以根据各自的不同情况,选择最优合作伙伴,逐步推进次区域货币合作,最后通过长期的努力建立欧盟那样的货币联盟。     

Mortgage lending,banking crises,and financial stability in Asia and Europe

Our paper investigates the relationship between financial stability and mortgage lending. We estimated the effect of the share of mortgage lending by individual banks (together with some control variables) on two measures of financial stability—the bank Z-score and the non-performing loan ratio—for a sample of 1889 banks in 65 advanced and emerging economies for the period 1987–2014 from the Bankscope database. We specifically compared the behavior of banks in Europe and Asia. We find evidence that an increased share of mortgage lending is positive for financial stability, specifically by lowering the probability of default by financial institutions and reducing the non-performing loan ratio, at least in non-crisis periods, for levels of mortgage shares up to 49–68%. For higher levels of mortgage lending shares, the impact on financial stability turns negative. Also, the occurrence of a banking crisis reduces the diversification benefits associated with mortgage lending. Compared with the base sample, Asian banks show greater financial stability during non-crisis periods, but are more negatively affected by a higher mortgage ratio during crisis periods, while European banks show greater financial stability during non-crisis periods, but are less negatively affected during crisis periods. Finally, a higher level of regulatory quality improves both financial stability measures, but the effects of macroprudential measures are found to be mixed.