中印外贸比较及双边贸易前景

中印两国从很古以来,就已有经济来往和贸易关系。本世纪四十年代末,两国先后取得解放和独立,开创了两国社会和经济发展的新纪元。从四十年代末到五十年代末中、印双方保持着良好的政治、经济、文化和外交方面的关系,以后因众所周知的原因从六十年代初期到七十年代中期两国关系恶化,并中断经济贸易往来达十五年之久,直到1977年双方才开始恢复了贸易往来。近几年两国领导人有了较多的接触,并都表示了进一步扩大双边经济技术     

中亚五国发展回顾与跨世纪展望

中亚乌兹别克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、土库曼斯坦、哈萨克斯坦五国1991年先后独立至今,已经度过了9个年头。在经历了曲折艰难的国家草创初期之后,各国的政权建设趋于成熟稳定,经济生产开始缓慢恢复,对外政策也逐渐灵活稳健。但是,随着中亚地区①内部各种矛盾的发展和地区外部势力影响趋强,中亚各国在跨入新世纪时仍将面临纷繁复杂的形势,广阔的前景与潜在的危机共存,构成了中亚各国发展的共同特点。一中亚五国独立后克服了最初几年暂时的迷惘和彷徨,在政权体制、经济发展和对外政策等重大领域中都取得了显著成就,为今后的发展奠定…     

越南革新与中国改革进程比较

中越两国都是社会主义国家,两国先后于70年代末80年代初开始了一项以变革旧的经济体制为核心内容的伟大事业,越南称之为革新,中国称之为改革.在改革前两国都实行高度集中的中央计划经济,同为落后的农业国.两国的改革经历了相似的三个阶段,即摸索起步,全面展开和深化改革的三个阶段.两国都采取了渐进的改革策略.由农村开始,然后扩展到城市;先搞试点,然后逐步推广.而不像某些前社会主义国家那样搞激进的一步到位的“休克疗法”.两国的改革都获得了巨大成功.实践证明,这种方法适合中越两国的国情.不过,中国和越南毕竟是两个不同的国家,它们的改革仍有不同的特点.本文试图对两国的改革进程及在各阶段的成败得失作一比较和总结.     

中俄美大三角与中亚的地缘政治战略——兼论上海合作组织的国际地位

随着苏联的解体和原加盟共和国的纷纷独立,中亚在全球地缘政治和战略上的重要地位日益凸显.中、俄、美三国与中亚均有利益关系,三国对中亚所持的政治态度及其地缘政治战略各有特点.在"9·11"事件后大三角关系在中亚的演变,使上海合作组织在中亚具有显赫地位及影响力.在一定时期内,三国将在中亚地区以反恐合作为契机,以合作为动力,共创"三赢"的局面.     

独联体国家如何应对“颜色革命”

2003年以来,格鲁吉亚、乌克兰、吉尔吉斯斯坦等国先后爆发了以"民主"为口号,以"街头政治"为特征的一系列"色彩革命".如果说格鲁吉亚发生"玫瑰革命"时,独联体各国还将其视为"偶然性的"个案,那么从乌克兰的"橙色革命"开始,尤其是在乌兹别克斯坦"安集延"事件之后,未变色的独联体国家开始审时度势,纷纷将防止发生颜色革命和维护政权稳定视为头等大事,在政治、经济、立法、舆论、外交等方面采取了一系列预防性措施.     

吉尔吉斯斯坦独立20周年回顾与展望

苏联解体后，吉尔吉斯斯坦独立，这是吉尔吉斯斯坦2000多年历史上的重大事件。独立20年来，吉尔吉斯斯坦在国家建设方面取得了一些成就，巩固了主权与独立，建立了独立的经济体系，但同时也出现了一些困难和问题。特别是在2005年爆发的所谓“郁金香革命”之后，吉尔吉斯斯坦成为中亚地区相对不稳定的国家，内部政治斗争激烈，政权更迭，经济发展困难。2010年“4·7”事件后，吉尔吉斯斯坦实行了议会制，建立了平衡各派利益的执政联盟，政局出现回稳迹象。吉未来发展需要依靠高素质的人力资源、优美的自然环境和丰富的矿产资源，而要真正实现在各领域的主权独立，仍需数十年的艰苦努力。吉中建交20年来，双边关系发展顺利，两国建立了睦邻、友好合作关系，今后两国需坚定不移地巩固和深化双边合作。     

喀麦隆人民的反帝斗争

在六十年代开始的第一天,黑非洲又出現了一个新独立的国家。法屬喀麦隆結束了托管,取得了独立。这是帝国主义在非洲被迫敗退的又一例証。喀麦隆人民为了摆脫殖民統治,取得民族独立,进行了長期的斗爭。近三年多以来,喀麦隆人民所进行的反帝武装斗爭,也有了进一步的發展,从根本上动搖了帝国主义統治。法帝国主义者在这种情况下,被迫于1958年同意喀麦隆在1960年获得独立。1959年3月联合国大会在西方殖民国家操縱下又通过了美国等国的提案,     

试论欧盟中亚战略的演变

在中亚国家独立后相当长的一段时间里,欧盟并非中亚地区事务的积极参与者.大体而言,欧盟对中亚事务的参与可以划分为三个阶段.第一个阶段从中亚各国独立到2001年"9.11"事件的发生;第二个阶段为"9.11"事件发生之后到2006年;而到了2006年下半年,在德国的推动下,欧盟开始积极酝酿出台完整的中亚战略.经过一段时间的讨论,欧盟最终于2007年6月22日通过了<欧盟与中亚:新伙伴关系战略>这一文件.这一文件的通过,既为欧盟全面介入中亚事务提供了政治纲领与政策框架,同时也标志着欧盟开始以一种全新的姿态出现在中亚地区.     

中亚民族国家建设中的民族因素问题

中亚五国系指哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、土库曼斯坦、塔吉克斯坦，它们是1991年底先后独立的，在建设独立主权国家的道路上已经走过十年。十年来在建设国家的过程中遇到许多困难和问题，民族问题便是其中之一。本文简要介绍这些国家在建设民族国家过程中遇到的与民族因素有关的几个问题。     

大事综览

2002年10月大事各方有如下评述: 一、中美首脑举行会晤。22—25日,国家主席江泽民应邀访问美国。江主席先后访问了休斯顿和位于得克萨斯州克劳福德的“西部白宫”(布什总统的私人牧场)。两国元首就发展中美建设性合作关系和重大国际及地区问题深入交换了看法,达成了一系列重要共识,再次强调中美平等友好合作对两国和世界的重要性。双方决定加强两国高层战略对话和交往,在双向互利的基础上加强反恐交流与合作,加强在经济贸易领域的合作,恢复两军交往和副外长级战略安全、军控和防扩散等磋商。美方重申坚持一个中国政策、遵守中美3个联合公报的原则,反对台湾独立。 美方认为中美关系改善的理由充足,但现在说两国关系将在很长一段时间内保持稳定还为时过早。美国总统国家安全顾问赖斯指出,“9·11事件”后,“美中关系通过反恐合作建立了良好的基础”,这暗示两国关系正迎来30年来最为稳定的时期。但在世界性的大竞争中,两国将作为对手激烈交     

Nordic involvement in the Baltic states security: Needs,response and success

Since regaining their independence in 1991, the three Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have sought to bolster their security by applying for NATO membership. This article examines their security context and the security challenges they face. It shows the attempts by the Nordic states to address these problems by offering assistance to the three countries, by supporting them in international institutions and by introducing them to new concepts of security. Thus the Nordic states have tried to ease confrontation in the Baltic, and have created a Nordic project of some importance.     

戈尔巴乔夫、叶利钦与苏联解体

戈尔巴乔夫在改革之初并没有注意到苏联的民族问题,在改革的过程中更多强调的是给公民以民主权利,而没有想到改革不合理的联盟体制,错过了改革联盟的良机,使波罗的海三国争权益的运动发展成要求独立的运动,戈尔巴乔夫没有找到好方法阻止这三国的独立。叶利钦在波罗的海三国独立问题上起了推波助澜的作用,他所领导的俄罗斯联邦争主权和最终抛弃联盟的行为,直接导致了苏联彻底解体。     

Liberalism and geopolitics in EU–Russia relations: rereading the “Baltic factor”

Contrary to some expectations, the Baltic states’ accession to the EU in 2004 was not followed by an improvement in their relations with Russia. Instead, the Baltic states became known as the “troublemakers” of EU–Russia relations. This was commonly explained by their history and national identity, which contributed to an understanding of the Baltic concerns as marginal. The Ukraine crisis brought a reaction of “I told you so” by the Baltic states that for many years had been warning the West about Russia’s expansionist ambitions. This article explores the ideational underpinnings of the gap between the Baltic states’ perceptions of and relations with Russia on the one hand and mainstream views in Europe on the other. It identifies liberal interdependence, democratic peace, and realist geopolitics as key ideas that have framed the EU’s and Baltic states’ perceptions of Russia. In the vein of constructivist foreign policy analysis, these ideational structures are seen to condition the EU’s and Baltic states’ interests and policies vis-à-vis Russia. An analysis of the “Baltic factor” helps to illuminate the contradictions and shortcomings in the EU’s Russia policy and review its ideational basis which is now in need of a strategic rethink.     

艰难的睦邻之路——苏联解体以来的俄罗斯与波罗的海三国

苏联解体至今,随着政治经济转轨的完成和双方国家利益与外交政策的磨合,俄罗斯与波罗的海三国走出了"文明离婚"的困境,步入了务实合作的道路,但是还没有建立起睦邻友好关系.俄罗斯对波罗的海三国政策缺乏连贯性和协调性,受到北约因素和欧盟因素的深刻影响,具有政治导向性.影响俄罗斯与渡罗的海三国关系发展的不利因素包括讲俄语居民地位问题、三国的历史记忆和民族情感、三国的反俄政治势力;有利因素包括俄罗斯同欧洲长期合作的政策取向、三国与俄罗斯发展经贸合作的互利性.在未来相当长的时期内,俄罗斯与波罗的海三国难以建立真正的睦邻友好关系.     

Acting small in a large state's world: Russia and the Baltic states

The interest in small states ebbs and flows as important international affairs include small states. Russia's actions and policies vis-à-vis Ukraine, and the resultant intensified apprehension among Russia's smaller neighbours, aim the proverbial microscope at the size and power discrepancies between states. Russia, by most metrics, is a large state and the Baltic states, by those same metrics, are small states. Small-state scholars expect large and small states to act differently. However, the case of Russia and the Baltic states indicates that large and small states do not, in fact, act all that different. This being the case, this article calls into question many of the assumptions made by small-state scholars about the difference between large- and small-state action and argues for changes within small-state studies as a subdiscipline of the larger international relations discipline.     

A defence model for the Baltic states

It is often argued that the Baltic states should not be accepted in NATO because they are not defensible and NATO forces would not be able to intervene in time if they were attacked. This article presents a possible Baltic defence concept which appears to be well adapted to Baltic terrain and Baltic material and manpower resources, and which should at the very least impose significant delay (weeks) and heavy losses on a massive attack. Friendly intervention could be in the form of air strikes against aggressor columns blocked on the roads.     

The Baltic predicament in the shadow of Russia’s war in Ukraine

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has once again reinvigorated the debate about the likelihood of conflict spreading into NATO’s frontline states, namely the Baltic republics. This article argues that somewhat paradoxically, the Baltics currently find themselves in both the best of times and the worst of times. On the one hand, with each “turn of the screw”—Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014 and 2022—Moscow has ensured a greater allied presence across the Baltics. Still, despite this and Russia’s substantial losses incurred in the war, the Baltic lawmakers will not write off Russia as a military threat any time soon.     

1970年代美苏粮食贸易的双层博弈分析

美苏20世纪70年代的粮食贸易因其独特形式,成为透视这一时期美苏关系的一个窗口。本文系统回顾了美苏之间在70年代进行的粮食贸易,介绍美苏之间进行粮食贸易的背景、70年代的两次购粮高潮以及1975年之后美苏间粮食贸易的走向。同时使用双层博弈模型,分析了国内层次、国际层次利益集团之间的博弈,最终总结出美苏之间在70年代的粮食贸易,是建立在双方实力的对比之上的,是当时国内博弈和国际博弈综合作用的结果。不管是国际还是国内层次发生变化,最终都会导致粮食贸易的走向发生变化。     

Identity and democracy in the Baltics

The purpose of this essay is to consider the probable impact of issues related to ethnic and cultural identity on democratization in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Particular attention will be given to the demographic make‐up of the Baltic states, which are home to a high percentage of Slavs (mostly Russians but also Belarusians, Poles, and Ukrainians), and to those factors which affect how these Slavs and the majority Baits: (1) identify themselves; and (2) identify with the new states in which they find themselves. The key question is the degree to which civic democracy can prosper in a newly emerging multi‐ethnic state. The answer is important not only for the Baltic states but also for the other new multinational states that have emerged from the former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern Europe in the past few years.     

Convergent Geography and Divergent Identities: A decade of transformation in the Baltic states

In an incredibly short period of time the Baltic States transformed themselves from former 'Soviet republics' into potential EU member states. This article attempts to interpret foreign and security policies of the Baltic States as an embodiment of their emerging political identity. The focus is mainly on the issue of how 'Europe' is being integrated into the national identities of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. This analysis leads to the conclusion that the Baltic States' political identity is constituted mainly within the framework of the meanings of nation-state discourse characterised by the East-West opposition. However, their participation in the EU integration process weakens the symbolic link between the state and the nation and creates tensions between the demands of identity and the actual practices of integration. This might be a hindrance to the Europeanisation of the Baltic States' identity and their international socialisation.