全球化的背景下国际组织与主权国家的互动分析

随着经济全球化的迅猛发展,国际组织成为具有结构性协调功能的重要的国际行为主体,国际组织是由主权国家建立的,它的权力是主权国家赋予的,主权国家是国际组织的实际推动者,国际组织既对国家权力产生限制和制约,又是国家利益延伸和权力共享的机制和平台。分析国际组织与主权国家之间互动关系,对于更好地维护国家利益具有十分重要的现实意义。     

Sustainable fiscal policies and budgetary risk under alternative monetary policy arrangements

Early work on the theory of economic policy stressed the importance of the interactions between fiscal and monetary policy. Tinbergen, and Cooper, showed us that there would be costs in instability and protracted imbalances, in particular fiscal imbalances, if this was not recognised. Yet most models we use today treat fiscal or monetary policies as if they operated alone. This paper reviews the advantages of recognising those interactions. We consider three possibilities: fiscal leadership (in the sense of acting first), monetary leadership, and simultaneous decision making, each underpinned by independence at the central bank. This temporal separation is important because it creates an opportunity for punishment by the follower (a result from asynchronous games). Making fiscal policy lead, and monetary follow, provides fiscal precommitment and the best results for output, inflation and fiscal balances. In particular, it ensures sustainable public finances without the need for arbitrary (and easily evaded) external restrictions. We show these results are proof against override by rational governments; and robust to changes in structure caused by flattening of the Phillips curve, globalisation, market reforms, and changes in savings.

Battered women's perceptions of risk versus risk factors and instruments in predicting repeat reassault

This study partially replicates and expands on a previous study that showed women's perceptions of risk to be a strong predictor of reassault among batterers. The current study employed a larger and multisite sample, a longer follow-up period of 15 months, and multiple outcomes including "repeated reassault" (n = 499). According to the multinomial logistic regressions, women's perceptions of risk improved prediction with risk factors (ROC area under the curve improved by.04 and sensitivity of repeated reassault increased 12 percentage points). In comparison to simulated risk instruments, women's perceptions by themselves were better predictors than the K-SID, similar in predictive ability to the SARA, and almost as strong as the DAS. The best prediction of repeated reassault was obtained using risk markers, including women's perceptions (ROC AUC =.83; 70% sensitivity) or by using the DAS and women's perceptions together (ROC AUC =.73; 64% sensitivity).     

Disaster management,risk reduction and international disaster response laws in the Commonwealth

This paper considers the existence and use of disaster risk management laws across the Commonwealth. It commences by considering approaches to risk management and disaster response. It reviews international and regional disaster law, policy and tools. The paper examines national disaster risk management laws through the lens of a typology of laws, based on the complexity and scope of the disaster risk reduction and response system. It makes recommendations for Commonwealth countries relating to review of disaster laws, implementation of international frameworks, and the inclusion of disaster risk reduction, recovery, climate change, quality standards and the prevention of sexual and gender-based violence in disaster laws.     

A Bayesian approach to the group versus individual prediction controversy in actuarial risk assessment

Recent attempts to indict the use of actuarial risk assessment instruments have relied on confidence intervals to demonstrate that risk estimates derived at the group level do not necessarily apply to any specific individual within that group. This article contends that frequentist confidence intervals are inapposite to the current debate. Instead, Bayesian credible intervals are necessary-in principle-to accomplish what commentators are concerned about: describing the precision of an actuarial risk estimate. After illustrating both the calculation and interpretation of credible intervals, this article shows how such intervals can be used to characterize the precision of actuarial risk estimates. It then explores the legal implications of wide and overlapping intervals. Contrary to what detractors claim, the fact that risk estimate intervals overlap is not a germane to legal (logical) relevance, and therefore actuarial risk estimates cannot be per se "inadmissible" on this basis.     

Pollution and international trade in services

Two central topics in recent rounds of international trade negotiations have been environmental concerns and services trade. While each is undoubtedly important, they are unrelated. In this paper, I show that the services-environment link is small, for two reasons. First, services account for only a small fraction of overall pollution. For none of five major air pollutants does the service sector account for even 4% of total emissions; for three of the five services account for less than 1%. Second, those service industries that do pollute are the least likely to be traded internationally. Those services for which the United States collects and publishes international trade data—presumably those services that are traded internationally—are less polluting than services for which trade data do not exist—presumably because the services are not traded. Even if we limit attention to the services that are traded across borders, the service industries most intensively traded are the ones that pollute the least. The bottom line is simple. International services trade bears little relation to the environment, because services in general contribute relatively little to overall pollution, and those industries that are traded internationally are among the least polluting.     

The freedom of navigation in international law and the utility of international society discourse

In the international law of the sea, the emergence of new actors and systems influencing relations between states has lead to evolving rules and calls for the redefinition of the traditional issues such the allocation of jurisdiction and rights to states in its maritime zones. In the maritime domain, this is seen thrice in the evolution of the various maritime zones in the United Nations Conferences for the Law of the Sea （UNCLOS I, II and III）. In the maritime domain, there are certain actions that are not dependent on any state＇s consent. One of such is the rule of freedom of navigation. This paper, argues for the possibilities of concomitance between international law and studies in international society based on the growing recognition of the importance of examining the sociological and historical element in rule development. This paper focuses on a rule in the international law of the sea with the aim of determining the extent to which norms have caused changes in rule development, if any. This method, known as the English School method of international relations, acknowledges the benefits of international law positivism in highlighting generality with the benefits of a normative discourse in highlighting alternatives and the utility of compliance. So, although the maritime domain is rooted in a state system, one where the parts interact as a whole, a branching-out analysis towards the normative discourse in the development of this rule will facilitate more understanding, as the case-specificity of most issues in the maritime domain cannot be overemphasised.     

Interdisciplinary research on international relations theory and international law in China over the past 10 years

From the origin, there has been a strong connection between international relations and international law. In the development of the history of different academic subjects, the research on international relations and international law are interdependently promoting each other. As a result, the realization of interdisciplinary research on international legal theory and the study of international law is inevitable. As a matter of fact, even though the interdisciplinary research of the two subjects has been separated for almost half a century, the need for the development of the subject and the changing world political and economical status give them a new chance for reunification. Recently, the interdisciplinary research on international relations theory and international law by the Western academic is becoming the order of the day, which has become the latest shining point of the recent development of the two subjects, which is even regarded as the new revolution of international relations theory and the study of international law. In this context, the past ten years is a period of emergence of Chinese international relations and the interdisciplinary research of international law. In the past ten years, some scholars have overcome “the difficulty of interdisciplinary research,” “the prejudice within the subject” and “the gap among different subjects,” and made pioneering research in the field of “systematic connection” and “issues in overlapping field.” Moreover, they gradually make the interdisciplinary research to be a popular method and a common recognition. Based on the current studies, interdisciplinary research will have a broad future in the fields such as “the interchange of concepts,” “the exchange of method,” and “the mutual assistance of materials,” which will provide scholars in this area with a broad space for research.     

Experience in international travel and aversion to terrorism

Conclusion Unlike the great majority of international travelers whose purposes are mainly recreational, touring or visiting among relatives and friends, business executives are obliged by the nature of their occupations, much like airline personnel and other professional groups, to travel despite varying degrees of hazard to their persons. And it is this segment of the traveling public that has suffered the most in terrorist incidents. Within the subject populations of international travelers, the outcomes were apparent, both of which involved rationalizations in overcoming fear. For the inexperienced international travelers who depend on second hand accounts of danger, they tend to accept sensational accounts of terrorist threast and overestimate risks; experienced executives who have traveled and who possess more reliable, concrete knowledge of terrorism, react differently: in their case, reactions are also psychologically determined. They are induced by dental, but are additionally informed by more valid information and experiences about the extent and dangers of terrorism.     

再论我国证券监管法律体系的完善

历经十多年的发展,我国在证券市场的法律监管方面已经取得了很大的成绩,建立了一个较为完整的法律体系。但是对于快速成长的中国证券市场而言,这个法律体系不可避免地存在着一些缺陷。如果能及时解决证券立法过程中的滞后、短视和结构偏失的问题,相信我国的证券监管法律体系会更趋完善,它将保障我国证券市场走向更大的发展。     

Gene tests and employees in an international comparison.

In this research, Professor Jürgen Simon and Christian Ravenstein have highlighted the general existing prohibition, in the labour field, of the undertaking of genetic tests that could mean discrimination for the genetic heritage of the worker. They have made a comparative study of several member States of the EU that have specific regulation on this area.     

Between demand and supply: Bribery in international trade

The use of kickbacks and illicit payments to win foreign sales is eroding fair trade and undermining good governance around the world. While often seen as discrete acts by unscrupulous businesses, bribery in international trade is better seen as driven by push and pull forces larger than individual firms. Two hypotheses on the dynamics of transnational bribery are formulated and tested in this study. The demand-pull hypothesis views multinational corporations as victims of corruption in host countries and predicts a positive relationship between corruption in host countries and bribery by guest businesses. The supply-push hypothesis treats multinationals as proactive parties and proposes a positive relationship between pro-bribery conditions in exporting countries and the inclination of their multinationals to foreign bribery. Analysis of cross-national data yielded no support for the demand-pull hypothesis, but strong backing for the supply-push hypothesis. This finding validates the potential of effective bribery reduction through supply-side controls. Direct all correspondence to Hung-EnSung, The National Centeron Addiction and Sub-stance Abuseat Columbia University, 633 Third Avenue, 19th Floor, NewYork, NY 10017, USA.