Al Qaeda Versus Big Brother: Anxiety About Government Monitoring and Support for Domestic Counterterrorism Policies

Explanatory models of attitudes toward U.S. domestic counterterrorism policy routinely incorporate individual concern over terrorism, but uniformly disregard concern about the government??s use of domestic surveillance. Indeed, one of the most prominent works of this kind explicitly argues that ordinary Americans will not perceive that government monitoring targets people like themselves and thus domestic surveillance programs will not generate anxiety. We question this assumption on theoretical and historical grounds. Our research uses a unique probability sample survey to demonstrate that significant portions of ordinary Americans feel anxious about domestic government monitoring. Moreover, the results show that anxiety about government monitoring negatively relates to attitudes toward domestic counterterrorism policies. Although never included in previous models, and even plainly dismissed as irrelevant, felt anxiety about government monitoring importantly predicts attitudes about domestic counterterrorism policies.     

Voting functions in the EU-15

This paper examines whether the European integration process, by transferring policy instruments to supra-national authorities, has affected voters’ evaluations of governments’ economic performance at elections. The analysis is implemented on a panel of 15 EU countries, from 1970 to 2011. Results suggest that before the Maastricht Treaty, citizens held incumbents responsible for GDP growth and for the evolution of inflation, particularly when measured relative to the EU average. After the Maastricht Treaty, there was a significant reduction in the impact of economic variables, especially inflation, on electoral outcomes. During the current economic crisis the capacity to control the budget deficit appears to be the main determinant of incumbents’ vote shares.     

‘A Conquerable Yet Resilient Foe’: British Perceptions of the Imperial Japanese Army's Tactics on the India-Burma Front,September 1942 to Summer 1944

Britain's ability to discard its image of the Imperial Japanese Army (IJA) as an invincible enemy during the Burma campaign hinged upon two key factors. First, accurate assessments of the appropriate means to overcome the IJA not only hinged upon reliable intelligence, but of greater importance, the level of experience which the British-Indian army had in engaging its opponent. Second, the uncertainty was compounded by concerns arising from the IJA's ability to inflict considerable delays and casualties on its Allies counterparts, in spite of its shortage of modern weapons and lack of adequate training in their use. Apprehensions could not be lifted until Allied forces had proven themselves capable of conducting operations against the Japanese without incurring excessive losses. The Fourteenth Army's victories at Imphal and Kohima in June 1944 did not discredit the IJA's ability to pose a difficult challenge. The only reassurance which field commanders could draw was that their own forces had developed the skills necessary to undertake their quest to dislodge the IJA from its positions in Burma.     

Waking up on another September 12th: implications for intelligence reform

Abstract

After 9/11 the US Government tried to ‘fix’ intelligence by adopting the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act (IRTPA). Resources increased and, to varying degrees, performance improved – particularly in counterterrorism. This article, however, argues that the constellation of Intelligence Community authorities and organizations, either created or left in place by the IRTPA, coupled with the challenges of a complex security environment, leaves us ill-prepared to deal with the Country’s twenty-first century intelligence requirements. Should that critique prove accurate, and should future intelligence failure(s) be judged strategically and politically unacceptable, the second half of the article provides a framework for revising the IRTPA; the proposals substantially increase the authority of the head of the Intelligence Community, consolidate structures, and create centers of analytic critical mass necessary to meet the knowledge requirements for both regional and transnational security issues. Reflecting the Intelligence Community’s long standing tradition of questioning assumptions, the article is meant to foster reflection and debate about whether the Intelligence Community is postured to meet the needs of the Country, and if not, what needs to change.     

Covid-19 and UK Universities

Universities UK (UUK) has suggested that there may be very significant losses to higher education as a consequence of Covid-19. However, losses are likely to be substantially lower than the potential losses estimated by UUK. But the magnitude of losses is very uncertain. The UUK’s proposal to restrict undergraduate enrolment per university to stop institutions poaching students is not in the interests of the most highly regarded universities, or that of students. Some rationalisation of the sector should be the price of further government support. Now is also the time to reconsider how university research is funded.     

地权诉求、宅基地流转与农村劳动力转移

当前城乡统筹发展实践中农民地权诉求常被忽略,而地权诉求是理解宅基地流转和劳动力转移的关键。本文基于5省11县2192份农户调查问卷数据,采用双变量Probit模型实证分析地权诉求对宅基地流转和劳动力转移的影响效应。研究发现,地权诉求对宅基地流转和农村劳动力转移具有显著影响,其中地权诉求强度具有正向激励作用,地权诉求越强的农户,其宅基地流转和劳动力转移意愿也越强。地权诉求结构作用显著,其收益性诉求起正向激励作用,而保障性诉求起负向激励(抑制)作用。宅基地流转和劳动力转移存在相互作用,而地权诉求是其共同影响因素。论文研究对未来的宅基地流转政策具有参考意义,通过充分理解和尊重地权诉求,构建与地权诉求激励相容的政策方案,共同推动农村宅基地流转和劳动力转移,可实现宅基地流转及其与劳动力转移的和谐性。     

France in Mali: rapid reaction

On 11 January 2013 France initiated military operations against Islamist rebels in Mali in order ‘to stop the terrorist aggression … make Bamako safe … and enable Mali to recover its territorial integrity’. It hopes that the current ground and air offensive will be limited in duration. But this will depend on several factors, including the effectiveness of its planning and intelligence, and the tactics of the opposition. If Bamako is to reassert its authority over the country's ungoverned north, the capacity of Mali's military will need to be dramatically enhanced.     

Institutions and economic growth: Recent British experience in an international context

The impact of institutions and political constraints on economic growth is greater than many economists’ models acknowledge. At the same time judgements about growth performance and policy effectiveness need to take account of differential scope for growth through ‘catch‐up’ across countries and over time. British performance, particularly that of the 1980s, seen in the light of the earlier relative economic decline of the UK, is reviewed and comparisons with other European countries are highlighted. This evidence confirms the importance of an approach to growth based on political economy and permits some predictions about relative growth rates in the 1990s.     

Four years of the Ghana district assemblies in operation: Decentralization,democratization and administrative performance

Ghana's District Assemblies were created in 1989 as ‘integrated’ decentralised authorities, combining oversight of deconcentrated line Ministries with the revenue powers and functions of devolved democratic local government. The frequently invoked but little studied relationships among democratisation, decentralisation and changes in the performance of government institutions are analysed on the basis of two case-study Districts, defining performance as output effectiveness, responsiveness and process acceptability. Although development output did increase after democratisation, it remained inadequate and did not show any significantly closer responsiveness to popular needs. This was mainly because local accountability was undermined by continuing central control over staffing and finances, the clash with national policies of retrenchment and the continued power of central government agents. The communal, non-party basis of representation also had a perverse effect on the ability of elected representatives to enhance the legitimacy of local taxation, particularly as the system embodied an unresolved contradiction between notions of community based self-help and representative district government. One of the lessons of the Ghanaian experience is that genuine local autonomy in an agreed area-the basic condition for effective accountability-is better based on more modest, local-level authorities, leaving larger, expensive functions as well as supervision of a deconcentrated civil service to more powerful regional administrations.     

‘Strangers in their own Country’: Epideictic Rhetoric and Communal Definition in Enoch Powell's ‘Rivers of Blood’ Speech

This article treats Enoch Powell's ‘Rivers of Blood’ speech as an example of the epideictic rhetoric of blame and exclusion. Drawing on a framework proposed by Celeste Michelle Condit, the analysis explores the functions of the address for the speaker and for the audience. Of particular concern are Powell's self‐presentation as a statesman and prophet; his account of the impact and consequences of unrestricted immigration; and his portrayal of a community where ordinary, decent English people were being displaced and victimised by Commonwealth immigrants—a process in which he claimed the authorities were complicit. For the audience, the speech gave public expression to their concerns about immigration, though Powell's predictions of a dystopian future also aroused sentiments of anger and foreboding. Despite the controversy that ensued, the impact of ‘Rivers of Blood’ was far‐reaching, and its influence is still apparent in contemporary debates over immigration.     

The Rule of Law in the Fight against Terrorism

What is the role of legal limits on executive power, if any, when citizens demand more security from terrorism, and allowing executive officials legal flexibility of action appears necessary to achieve it? We develop a game‐theoretic model to show that when the executive faces increased electoral incentives to provide security and has legal flexibility to choose any policy it finds optimal, security from terrorism can actually decrease. In contrast, when the executive faces increased electoral incentives to provide security and there is an explicit legal limit on executive counterterrorism activities, security from terrorism increases. We also show that the executive achieves the objective of terrorism prevention more effectively when there are some limitations on its counterterrorism powers. The article provides a security rationale for legal limits on executive power and has implications for understanding how to design the institutional structure of liberal governments when the social objective is terrorism prevention.     

The Separation Plot: A New Visual Method for Evaluating the Fit of Binary Models

We present a visual method for assessing the predictive power of models with binary outcomes. This technique allows the analyst to evaluate model fit based upon the models’ ability to consistently match high‐probability predictions to actual occurrences of the event of interest, and low‐probability predictions to nonoccurrences of the event of interest. Unlike existing methods for assessing predictive power for logit and probit models such as Percent Correctly Predicted statistics, Brier scores, and the ROC plot, our “separation plot” has the advantage of producing a visual display that is informative and easy to explain to a general audience, while also remaining insensitive to the often arbitrary probability thresholds that are used to distinguish between predicted events and nonevents. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique in building predictive models in a number of different areas of political research.     

The Troubled Renewal of the Canada-Ontario Agreement Respecting Great Lakes Water Quality

Powerful constituent governments can have a significant impacton a federal nation's ability to implement international agreements.Negotiating written agreements is one strategy for achievingpolicy coordination in nations with such governments. This articleexamines the Canada-Ontario Agreement (COA) Respecting GreatLakes Water Quality, which helps Canada to meet its obligationsunder its Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement with the UnitedStates. First negotiated in 1971, COA was regularly renegotiatedwithout incident until the most recent round of negotiations,which began in 1991 and continued into 1994. The negotiatingissues that proved so contentious during this round are examined,as is the impact on the negotiations of developments on thebroader Canadian political scene.     

Moderator or Manipulator? How International–Local Relations Emerged as a Function of UN Authority-Building in Cambodia

The success or failure of international peacebuilding missions is predominantly evaluated in reference to interveners’ ability to exercise their mandated authorities. To test the value of an empirically based analysis of authority-building processes in the course of such missions the article turns to the United Nations Transitional Authority in Cambodia (UNTAC, 1992–1993). In order to safeguard the country’s stability many supported the idea of holding presidential elections in addition to the ones for the Constituent Assembly forming the new government. To organize such unforeseen elections UNTAC would have had to change its mandate as determined by the Paris Peace Accords (PPA). Based on extensive archival research the paper analyses the debate surrounding this proposal as a series of legitimacy claims that were selectively recognized and rejected. The article concludes that evaluations of peacebuilding missions are indeed too focused on interveners’ authority to decide, while neglecting or underestimating challenges to their authority to interpret. This fosters a false sense of control over the direction of political processes.     

论纳税人诚实推定权的入法途径

诚实推定权由纳税人财产权与人格尊严权衍生而来,在立法中加以确认有助于落实税收法定、践行量能课税和提高纳税人遵从度。诚实推定权借鉴了刑法上的无罪推定和民法上的善意推定,其基本内涵是税务机关认为纳税人有少缴税款嫌疑时,应由该机关承担举证责任,证明强度应达到优势证据标准。我国应在修改《税收征收管理法》时,明确表达纳税人享有诚实推定权,同时准确界分纳税人的协力义务和税务机关的举证责任,强调逃税行为必须具备主观故意的要件,合理限定税收检查权。诚实推定权入法将对税收征纳实践产生影响,提高现有“计税依据明显偏低”的认定标准,使纳税人的正当理由诉求更有可能被认可,对逃税行为的界定也将更为精确。     

Home rule and municipal revenue stability: New evidence from Texas

Scholars have long debated whether home rule powers help improve municipal financial well-being; however, a consensus has yet to be reached. This study advances the home rule literature by causally estimating the impact of home rule in Texas on municipal revenue stability. To accomplish this, we employed a difference-in-differences estimator coupled with event-study specifications on a 40-year-long panel data set. This approach revealed strong empirical evidence that cities adopting a home rule charter had a significant reduction in the probability of experiencing revenue decline. This finding remained robust with multiple measures of revenue change, an alternative sample, and different model specifications. Moreover, we found that home rule cities’ revenue stability was likely to come from their increase in property taxes.     

To change or not to change?: The effect of terminology on public support of countering violent extremism efforts

Within the counterterrorism field, the concept of countering violent extremism (CVE) has emerged as a potential non-punitive solution to address the threat of radicalization. Practitioners and scholars have raised several concerns regarding CVE strategies including concerns about the CVE terminology. Using a survey experiment, this article responds to this concern by empirically analyzing the impact of CVE terminology on public support for CVE initiatives in the United States. Although many local communities have dropped the CVE terminology, the results suggest that a change in terminology at the national scale is unnecessary.     

Multi-level governance in the EU and EU democracy: Democratic legitimacy,democratic accountability and transparency of the European offices of the English local authorities in Brussels

This paper seeks to examine the role and functions of the representative offices of English local authorities in Brussels by considering the democratic legitimacy (i.e. linkage to elected councillors or mayors), accountability and transparency of the office’s activities. The study demonstrates that the offices differ in their governance arrangements and funding, which has a direct impact on the approach to democratic legitimacy and accountability, noting that those offices which rely most heavily on direct funding from a single authority or a combined authority have the closest links to the authorities concerned. The transparency of the offices varies considerably, with clear distinctions between offices that are creatures of contract or where offices are an emanation of the authority concerned. The pattern here is less dependent on the pattern of funding of the office and depends more on the availability of resources and the approach adopted by the office itself.     

The Study of Intelligence in Theory and Practice

The use of probability propositions is widespread in Intelligence estimation and strategic forecasts, as in everyday life. This paper attempts to give clear meaning to the use of probability statements for future strategic assessment. The first half presents possible interpretations in the philosophy of probability, while the second part applies the understandings of the first half to the Intelligence estimation process. A recommendation for a combination of ‘a priori’ interpretation of probability with a higher level of ‘relative frequency’ interpretation is the result of this paper.     

Ten Years of EU's Fight against Terrorist Financing: A Critical Assessment

This article offers a critical assessment of the post-9/11 efforts of the European Union (EU) in the fight against terrorist finances. Using the EU's own goals from its action plans and counterterrorism strategies as the baseline criteria, it examines how successful the EU has been in implementing the relevant aspects of various United Nations Security Council counterterrorism resolutions, the special recommendations of the Financial Action Task Force, and its own measures spanning across all of its three pre-Lisbon pillars. In particular, the article seeks to answer the following questions: (1) What and how much of its own counter-terrorism plans has the EU managed to achieve since 9/11? and (2) What lessons can be learned from the hitherto successes and failures for future EU efforts to counter terrorist financing? Special attention is paid to the thus far neglected role of the private sector in the fight against terrorist financing.