Social Security area population projections: 1987

The following article, first published as Actuarial Study No. 99, describes the population projections that underlie the long-range cost estimates for the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program, which are included in the 1987 Report of the OASDI Board of Trustees. The projections start from a recent estimate of the population in the Social Security Area by age, sex, and martial status and from an estimate of existing marriages by age of husband and age of wife. Three separate projections, denoted Alternatives I, II, and III, are developed by analyzing historical data and making three different sets of assumptions about future net immigration, birth rates, and death rates.     

Comparative Social Security: The Challenge of Evaluation

There has been dramatic global expansion in the national provision of social security programs throughout the twentieth century. This has provided very fertile ground for the comparative analysis of social security programs and systems over the last forty-five years. Most comparative studies, however, have, been content to describe and compare strategies, programs, institutions and values at the multinational or regional levels. There has been considerable reluctance either to engage in global studies or to embark on comparative-evaluative studies. This paper seeks to fill this gap by providing a framework for an evaluation methodology that permits the global ranking of social security systems and programs.     

Social Security disability beneficiaries with work-related goals and expectations

This study examines working-age Social Security Disability Insurance and Supplemental Security Income beneficiaries who report having work goals or expectations, referring to these individuals as "work-oriented." The study uses data from the 2004 National Beneficiary Survey matched to administrative data spanning 2004-2007 to identify work-oriented beneficiaries and to analyze their sociodemographic, health, and employment characteristics, as well as their earnings-related benefit suspensions and terminations. Relative to other disability beneficiaries, the 40 percent classified as work-oriented were younger and more educated, had been on the disability rolls a shorter time, had lower income from public assistance, and were healthier. Just over half had recently engaged in work or in work preparation activities at interview, about half had earnings at some point during 2004-2007, and 10 percent left the disability rolls because of earnings for at least 1 month during that period. The findings show that a large share of beneficiaries have work goals, most are attempting to work, and many experience some success.     

Workers' compensation: a background for Social Security professionals

This article provides a brief history and background of workers' compensation programs for occupationally injured and ill workers in the United States. It presents the basic principle involved in workers' compensation and briefly discusses the disability benefits to which workers are generally entitled. It also discusses why there are settlements in this disability program and the availability of information about the amounts paid in workers' compensation cases for obtaining an offset for Social Security Disability Insurance benefits paid to the worker. Finally, the article explains the rationale behind the public policy on coordination of Disability Insurance and workers' compensation in the new paradigm of disability and return to work.     

社会保障X-低效率现象辨析

由于政府失灵、制度设计管理缺陷、道德风险与负面激励等客观诱因的存在,社会保障制度作为社会的稳定器和安全网,其效率目标在运作过程中会产生一定漏出量,从而引发投入-产出效率较差或较低的X-低效率现象。     

Justifying Public Provision of Social Security

The enormous expansion of the Social Security system over the last four decades has left the government very heavily involved in determining the savings and insurance of American households. While the growth of Social Security has been very substantial, it has also been gradual; this may explain the lack of focused debate on the pros and cons of government intervention in private saving and insurance decisions. This paper discusses the rationale for government intervention in this area as well as the evidence supporting the need for such intervention. While arguing the case for government provision of Social Security, the paper also points out significant shortcomings in the current system and suggests several needed reforms.     

论内保工作发展趋势——走社会保安服务之路

传统内保工作体制受到市场经济的挑战,改革这种体制是大势新趋.本文认为内保工作走社会保安服务之路是社会化分工的需要,是经济发展的趋势,是西方发达国家政府鼓励发展的方向,它比传统的内保工作具有明显的优势,走社会保安服务之路是今后内保工作发展的趋势.     

Social Security: a financial appraisal for the median voter

Several explanations have been proposed for why voters continue to support unfunded social security systems. Browning (1975) suggests that the extremely large unfunded pension systems of most democracies depend on the existence of a voting majority composed of middle-aged and older people who fail to fully internalize the cost of financing the system. In fact, when voting, economically rational workers consider only their current and future contributions to the system and their expected pension benefits--not their past contributions, which they regard as sunk costs. If, for a majority of voters, the expected continuation return from social security exceeds the return from alternative assets, an unfunded social security system is politically sustainable. This article explores the validity of Browning's proposition by quantifying the returns that U.S. voters in presidential elections from 1964 to 1996 have obtained, or expect to obtain, from Social Security. Did "investments" in Social Security outperform alternative forms of investment, such as mutual funds or pension funds, for a majority of the voters? What can be expected for the future? The U.S. Social Security system redistributes income within age cohorts on the basis of sex, income, and marital status. To account for some of these features, the median voter is represented by a family unit whose members--a husband who accounts for 70 percent of household earnings and a wife who accounts for 30 percent--make joint economic and voting decisions. Thus, retirement and survival benefits paid out to the spouse of an insured worker can be included in the calculation of Social Security returns. Interval estimates of voters' family incomes from the U.S. Census Bureau were used to obtain the median voter's household earnings. The median voter's age is derived from the ages of those who voted in presidential elections, not from the ages of the entire electorate. The median voter's contributions to Social Security are the product of the joint employer/employee Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) tax rate and employee earnings. Data on actual contributions are available for median voters in the 1964 to 1976 elections; Social Security Administration (SSA) estimates are used for future tax rates and average wage growth rates. Data on actual old-age, retirement, and survivor benefits, as well as estimates of future benefits, are also available from SSA. Analysis of ex-post returns from "investing" in Social Security and from a buy-and-hold strategy applied to three alternative assets--the Standard & Poor's Composite Index (S&P), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and U.S. government bonds--shows surprising results. In 1964 and 1968, Social Security largely outperformed the other three assets. In 1972, Social Security and the stock market performed almost equally. In 1976, however, the median voter would have been better off in the stock market. The expected returns for median voters in later elections cannot be directly compared with realized returns from alternative assets. However, estimates range from 5.7 percent in 1984 to 7.0 percent in 1996 and thus compare favorably with average returns of 5.6 percent for S&P, 5.3 percent for DJIA, and 2.1 percent for government bonds over the 1964-1996 period. Although these findings must be taken with caution since they compare ex-post returns, they show that, despite a continuous reduction in profitability, Social Security still represents a safe, high-return asset for a majority of families.