Using feedback simulation to test educational finance policies

A system dynamics model of the dynamics of special education reimbursement policies, based upon work completed in Massachusetts, is presented. The model is used to analyze the causes of unstable growth in special education costs and to propose policy options for controlling such costs. Because of an elaborated ability to represent the behaviors of local school districts, the system dynamics technology was found to be ideally suited to this type of policy analysis. However, the existence of the elaborated feedback structure would make it extremely cumbersome to use the system dynamics model to project annual costs on a locality-by-locality basis, such projections being the principal strength of traditional education finance models. This trade-off between two modeling technologies suggests that analysts must carefully match their audience, purpose, and modeling technology to attain best analyses.     

Establishing the link between representative bureaucracy and performance: The South African case

Representative bureaucracy is a critical element of modern public administration and governance. Since the advent of nonracial democracy, the South African government has transformed the apartheid bureaucracy into a new public service that closely mirrors the country's diverse population. Questions remain, however, about how this demographic transformation has impacted the public service. Grounded in the theory of representative bureaucracy, we use a mixed methods approach to examine the relationship between representation of historically disadvantaged groups and performance of national departments in South Africa. Analyses of panel data indicate that as national departments become more representative by employing a greater percentage of Blacks, they become more effective at achieving their goals. Interviews with officials in national departments corroborate this and reveal a range of underlying pathways linking representation of historically disadvantaged groups to performance.     

Analyzing the dynamic complexity of development interventions: lessons from an irrigation experiment in Nepal

Improving irrigation systems in Asian countries has been a high priority for the allocation of international aid. Substantial funds have been allocated to adopt the “best practices” of hiring external water engineers to construct modern systems to replace those that farmers built. These expensive investments have infrequently led to long-term improvement in the operation of irrigation systems in Asia. In this article, we examine the process and impact of an innovative irrigation assistance project that was initially undertaken in Nepal in the mid-1980s. We analyze data obtained over three time periods related to changes in system structure and performance over time. We trace the unfolding patterns of improved engineering infrastructure across time depending on the way it interacts with other factors to affect long-term irrigation performance. We examine some of the key variables that are likely to affect the diverse and complex patterns of change. We also undertake analysis of the configural impact of core variables using Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA). We find that the initial and later investments in system infrastructure are only one factor that helps to generate short-term improvement. Unless farmers encourage local entrepreneurs and organize themselves, create their own rules or use sanctions, and augment their rules through collective action, infrastructure investment alone is not sufficient to achieve sustainable higher performance.     

Using implementation research to solve implementation problems: The case of energy emergency assistance

Generalizations drawn from implementation research can offer useful guidance in formulating new implementation plans, as the development of a revenue-recycling program illustrates. According to the conventional wisdom drawn from implementation research, the program design should be simple and all the steps necessary to produce the desired results should be identified at the outset. The program that was developed in this case was an extensive one, intended to provide financial relief to all U.S. citizens in an energy emergency. The program would be under the control of one existing agency where equipment, personnel, space, and standard operating procedures were most suitable to the goals of the plan. Although the admonitions derived from past research are straightforward, it turns out that adhering to them in the practical process of resolving specific implementation problems requires imagination and tenacity. Because implementation takes place in settings that are extraordinarily diverse, new generalizations regarding implementation will not be easy. Besides, those that engage in implementation research must reconcile themselves to the fact that their generalizations face a demanding test, far more demanding then that encountered in most policy analysis research—“Does it really work?”     

Decentralization of road administration: case studies in Africa and Asia

A study of decentralization of road administration in developing countries has been undertaken, including a literature review, and field studies in Nepal, Uganda and Zambia. The findings are reported under the headings of: constitutions and governance; policy and planning; financial and fiscal aspects; institutions, management and human resources; operations; and contribution to poverty alleviation. Decentralization of road administration has potential for improving the delivery of rural transport infrastructure services. But the evidence from this study suggests that it is proving difficult to realize fully the expected benefits. Problems include: lack of local government powers to exercise political influence; insufficient financial resources; lack of management capability; and a lack of accountability mechanisms. Limited data also suggest that there is little evidence of existing decentralized systems being particularly responsive to addressing the needs of the rural poor. There is a need for the poor to be involved more actively in the planning, financing and implementation process. Different models for administrative decentralization are described and recommendations are made for approaches likely to be the most appropriate for rural transport infrastructure administration and management. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Belgian federalism: Towards complexity and asymmetry

From the beginning of the twentieth century, tendencies towards decentralisation began to take shape in the Belgian unitary state. They resulted in a federal concept in 1988. The constitutional reformers of 1988 worked out a strikingly original concept. Not only do the constituent parts differ thoroughly at the economic, social, ideological and linguistic‐cultural levels, but there is also an incredible degree of complexity and asymmetry among the newly‐created institutions themselves, as witness the extreme case of the political structures in the Brussels region. This sui generis can be understood only by looking at it against a background of the complex political evolution of the last few decades and in particular the equally complex process by which the 1988 government was formed.     

Using the institutional grammar tool to understand regulatory compliance: The case of Colorado aquaculture

What is the relationship between the design of regulations and levels of individual compliance? To answer this question, Crawford and Ostrom's institutional grammar tool is used to deconstruct regulations governing the aquaculture industry in Colorado, USA. Compliance with the deconstructed regulatory components is then assessed based on the perceptions of the appropriateness of the regulations, involvement in designing the regulations, and intrinsic and extrinsic motivations. The findings suggest that levels of compliance with regulations vary across and within individuals regarding various aspects of the regulatory components. As expected, the level of compliance is affected by the perceived appropriateness of regulations, participation in designing the regulations, and feelings of guilt and fear of social disapproval. Furthermore, there is a strong degree of interdependence among the written components, as identified by the institutional grammar tool, in affecting compliance levels. The paper contributes to the regulation and compliance literature by illustrating the utility of the institutional grammar tool in understanding regulatory content, applying a new Q‐Sort technique for measuring individual levels of compliance, and providing a rare exploration into feelings of guilt and fear outside of the laboratory setting.     

Using the Delphi process to analyze social policy implementation: A post hoc case from vocational rehabilitation

This study uses a Policy Delphi to discern differences in perspective among and within groups responsible for formulating and implementing vocational rehabilitation policy. Four groups of players were chosen for our analysis: government officials, academics, directors of rehabilitation centers, and the staff who interface with program participants. Significant differences were found between the groups regarding the relative importance of possible legislative goals. This suggests that the failure of vocational rehabilitation policy to promote a work agenda may be attributed to a lack of consensus among policy implementors. The Delphi technique could help policy planners understand the different perspectives within the implementation community, and hence craft more realistic legislation.     

Metaphor,analogy, and the discourse of originality: five Iranian case studies

This article explores the roles metaphors and analogies play in architectural design thinking. Architects, planners, and designers use these cognitive tools extensively. While the linkages between metaphors, analogies, and design thinking are not new, how architects use them is not systematically explored. Metaphors and analogies are used idiosyncratically. What a particular metaphor or analogy signifies varies from person to person and could mean different things to different people. In this study two key findings emerge from the interviews with five prominent Iranian architects, who have used metaphors or analogies in their projects. First, this study confirms the other findings that designers use metaphors/analogies in three ways: problem solving, problem definition, and explaining a problem to others. At times architects post-rationalize metaphors or analogies, or use them after the fact instead of during the conceptual design stage; second, arguably, metaphors and analogies shed some light on broader issues of public concern, that is, the authenticity (originality) vs. imitation debate. This latter debate remains contentious within the Iranian architectural circles.     

Social systems and social complexity in relation to interdisciplinary policymaking and planning

Jay W. Forrester has shown that computer simulation indicates that the intuitive models usually invoked to deal with planning contingencies lead to basically erroneous results. This is because the real world systems, of which the web of socio-economic-environmental organization (WSEEO) is now, perhaps, of major significance to the future of man, are multi-loop, nonlinear feedback systems whose structures run counter to the intuitive, simplistic models usually invoked for studying and dealing with our global, environmental problems. In addition, planning and policymaking also frequently ignore system breaks that have rendered the models invoked obsolescent and non-isomorphic to the segment of the real world with which a planner is concerned. Planning models are needed that will change with time, in recognition of the system breaks that are occurring, sometimes over relatively short periods. These system breaks often lead to unstable parameters in the more simplistic models employed. The important task in planning and policymaking is to capture accurately the structures of the complex systems for which we are trying to plan. In this sense the determination of the particular values of the parameters of our models is less important than the task of developing models that approximate the real-world structure with ever greater, structural precision. In the case of developmental, economic planning, we find that adding more of the existing types of technologies and manufacturing processes to the world's capital stock, through efforts to industrialize underdeveloped economies, increases the pollution and degradation of the world-wide WSEEO. This adds another pitfall to developmental planning which—if it is to escape contributing to pollution and degradation of the WSEEO—must avoid the conventional, currently existing capital-stock framework. Appropriate, developmental planning must try to develop technologies and modes of industrialization that reduce global pollution and ecological degradation and which, at the same time, minimize the amount of unrecycled waste poured into local regions of the planet's environment. In short, models for planning and policy-making must more and more be of the multi-loop, nonlinear type and must incorporate unconventional technologies and industrial processes not of the type that is commonly found in the West. Some of the basic objectives and requirements of such models for the planning and policy sciences are briefly suggested by the author.     

Chinese and Japanese investment in Southeast and South Asia: case studies of the electronics and automobile industries

Abstract

This article uses extensive fieldwork data to focus on the question of how Chinese and Japanese companies are competing in neighboring countries of Asia, and what economic forces will shape their future growth in the region. It begins by briefly discussing the history of Chinese and Japanese investment in the South and Southeast Asian regions. It traces the development of Japanese overseas investment policies, as well as China's more recent ‘Going Out’ government program to encourage overseas flows of capital. It then builds on prior political economy work as it uses case study focuses, with primary data based on the author's fieldwork research in several nations of Southeast Asia and in India, of the two key sectors of automobiles and electronics. It compares and contrasts the investment strategies of companies from each country, as well as the successes and failures of investments in the industries. It finds that Japanese companies’ advantages lie in industries utilizing advanced technology and management skills. Though the Japanese continue to lead in many areas, including automobiles, they have begun to face competition and potentially reduced profits in vital manufacturing areas. Meanwhile, Chinese overseas companies have made significant advances in the consumer electronics sector, using low prices and good quality, though overseas automobile investments have gained little traction. The article concludes that, if the Chinese can improve their product quality, capitalize on improving managerial skills and a deeper level of experience in the region, and establish brands they can sell with reliable distribution networks, Japanese companies could face losses to their Asian neighbor in these important parts of the continent they have dominated for decades.     

From simplicity to complexity: The development of theory in the study of judicial behavior

This article assesses the development of theories of judicial behavior in the United States in the past few decades. It is argued that the study of judicial behavior has been relatively balkanized, with some advances within particular theoretical contexts, but with little successful effort at integrating different approaches within a comprehensive theory. Although I develop no such comprehensive theory in this article, I do argue that the predominant frameworks for analyzing judicial behavior—attitude theory, fact pattern theory, role theory, small group theory, organization theory, and environmental theories—are not incompatible and can be at least partially integrated. In order to accomplish the desired integration, there are three desiderata:

• The most general and useful unit of theoretical analysis is the individual decision maker.
• Nonindividual level theories can and should be articulated to include propositions about the underlying microlevel processes.
• Comprehensive theory can best be developed through models that incorporate influences stemming from various levels (e.g., group, institution, environment) but that ultimately focus on the individual.

Thus, theories of judicial behavior must become more complex if they are to achieve a higher level of explanation and prediction.     

The EC as an international corporate actor: Two case studies in economic diplomacy

Abstract. Within the arena of international politics the European Community sometimes acts as an actor, but sometimes it does not. As is shown in this article:'traditional' European-integration approaches fail to explain this. The authors introduce an actor concept which seems to overcome such shortcomings. This approach is applied to a study of two action domains of the EC: one on chemicals control policies and non-tariff trade barriers, and the other on the Multi-Fibre Agreements.     

Locating parties, factions and ministers in a policy space: a contribution to understanding the party-policy link

Abstract. The article examines approaches to the study of the party-policy link and argues that two generally held assumptions - the unidimensionality of party political conflict and the party as unitary actor - should be treated as matters for empirical dedermination rather than a priori assumption. Having briefly reviewed interpretations of dimensionality in the Irish party system, the article puts forward an empirical approach to both issues based on multidimensional scaling of preference data from a sample of parliamentarians. The results of the application of such an approach in the Irish case indicate at least a two dimensional policy space and considerable intra-party factionalism. This evidence is then used to interpret the party-policy link in three areas: capital taxation, abortion and divorce, and Northern Ireland policy.