THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CRIME AND INCARCERATION AMONG THE AMERICAN STATES1

Data from the 50 states for 1975 are analyzed to try to separate the presumed reciprocal effects on each other of crime rates and incarceration rates. Two-stage least-squares regression shows no significant effect of crime on incarceration nor of incarceration on crime. Incarceration rates are affected mainly by the percentage of blacks in the state population. Crime rates are significantly influenced by urbanization, region, mean income, and unemployment.     

TWO FACES OF BAIL REFORM: AN ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF PRETRIAL STATUS ON DISPOSITION PRETRIAL FLIGHT AND CRIME IN HOUSTON

Bail reform is under attack by public officials historically identified with the cause of social justice. Release on personal recognizance is increasingly assailed as significantly contributing to the problem of pretrial flight and crime. Are these observations valid or have such reforms represented a step toward equal justice-without seriously threatening public safety? To test the argument against bail reform, the authors analyzed the outcome of randomly selected felony cases in Houston, Texas. All defendants were monitored by a computerized information system for athirty month period. The results of the major hypotheses were mixed. Pretrial status was found to have no significant effect on conviction outcome. However, as expected, a significantly higher proportion of convicted detained defendants were sentenced to prison than their bonded counterparts. While failure to appear rate was found relatively high for both defendants released on recognizance and money bail, the actual fugitive rate (2%) and pretrial crime rate (7%) for total bonded defendants were low. Finally the results indicated that bail reform, as experienced in this major southwestern jurisdication, has not significantly affected pretrial flight or crime.