The Social Construction of Policy Reform: Economists and Trade Liberalization Around the World

We argue that the global spread of ideas contributes to trade liberalization. Building on insights from a rich case-based literature, we suggest an explicit mechanism of trade policy diffusion: US-trained Ph.D. economists, who share a common belief in the benefits of free trade, and who operate with varying degrees of political influence around the world. We offer the first cross-national test of the impact of economists on trade liberalization using a unique dataset recording the country of residence of all 6,493 foreign-based, US-trained American Economic Association (AEA) members over the period 1981–1997. Specifically, we measure the influence of economists on the timing and extent of trade liberalization. First, we endogenize the date of trade liberalization using hazard and probit models. Controlling for alternative diffusion mechanisms and other confounding variables, our results suggest that economists significantly speed up the reform process. Second, we find that countries with greater numbers of economists are more open to trade at the end of the period. All of our results are robust to an instrumental variables strategy that employs the number of Fulbright grants allocated by the United States as an instrument for the number of US-trained economists.     

大国崛起与世界体系变革——世界体系理论的视角

以沃勒斯坦和弗兰克为代表的世界体系论为大国崛起提供了一个极有价值的解释框架.世界体系论认为,中国崛起有其正当性.直到两个世纪前中国才失去在世界经济中的支配地位,当代中国崛起不过是历史上中国经济文化优势的复兴.理性地看,中国尚处于从世界体系的半边缘国家向中心国家位移的阶段,并且仍然深受世界体系中不平等劳动分工和不平等交换体系的制约,不可能对美国及西方世界构成威胁.同时,中国是在世界体系的社会化中崛起的,因而崛起后的中国不可能改变现存世界体系的性质、结构及其运行规律.因此,当前大国崛起的正当性还在于显著地增强世界多极化与国际关系民主化的力量.     

Centers of Gravity: Regional Powers,Democracy, and Trade

Classic studies on hegemonic stability and power transition suggest that concentration of capabilities favoring a single state can promote economic cooperation and discourage militarized conflict. However, tests of these arguments have been primarily limited to examining temporal variation in global capability distributions and corresponding levels of system-wide cooperation; few have examined the impact of capability concentration at the region level. In this article, we contend that concentration of regional military capabilities corresponds to lower trade costs for states throughout a region and to an incentive for weaker states to de-prioritize expenditure on the military, freeing resources that can be used to promote trade. As a result, this condition promotes higher levels of trade, particularly within the region. We also argue that democratic regional powers are better able to foster confidence in the sustainability of cooperation; thus, the trade-enhancing impact of concentrated regional capabilities is stronger when the predominant state is more democratic. We find evidence in support of our expectations in statistical models examining state trade between 1960 and 2007.     

The Paradox of Weakness in European Trade Policy: Contestation and Resilience in CETA and TTIP Negotiations

Over the last decade, trade negotiations with Canada and the United States met with considerable resistance from non-governmental organisations (NGO). Moreover, the negotiation mandates given to the European Commission were so broad as to include topics falling under so-called mixed competence of the EU and the member states, necessitating not only ratification by the EU Council of Ministers and the European Parliament, but also member states’ parliaments. At some point, these two factors almost seemed to paralyze the EU as a trade negotiator. In the end, however, the EU concluded an agreement with Canada, renegotiated its agreement with Mexico (while also concluding agreements with Singapore and Japan amongst others), while negotiations with the US were suspended. Three factors can account for this puzzling combination of apparent incapacity and blockage and surprising resilience of EU trade policymaking. First, the NGO contestation campaigns did not muster pan‐European but rather only varying degrees of support. Second, in addition to scrutiny by the European Parliament, consensus decision-making in the Council fosters accommodation of the demands of all member states. This leads to a low degree of negotiating autonomy on the part of the European Commission, yet large bargaining power for the European Union, as long as the other side wants agreement. Finally, a recent ruling by the Court of the EU facilitated the decoupling of agreements on portfolio investment and investment arbitration (one of the most difficult hurdles), from all other matters of trade and regulatory cooperation, making it easier to reach agreement.     

“9·11”事件与东北亚地区间的大国关系

恐怖主义在世纪交替之际成为国际政治舞台上的一个突出现象,“ 9·11”事件引发的美国反恐怖主义战争,从本质上来说带有“宗教战争”的色彩,这就注定了要铲除国际恐怖主义的根源不是一朝一夕所能完成的。“ 9·11”事件引发的东北亚地区间大国关系的调整以及对该地区政局的影响,可以被看作是全球政治舞台上大国关系调整的一个缩影。     

简论近代欧洲在东南亚殖民扩张中的宗教政策与传教活动

本文简单考察了近代几个主要欧洲殖民强国西班牙、葡萄牙、法国、荷兰与英国在东南亚扩张活动的宗教政策与传教活动,比较了早期欧洲列强在殖民扩张中的特点与差异。     

1963年印(尼)马对抗与东南亚地区之大国角力

1963年1月印尼因反对英国主导下的马来西亚计划而发起印(尼)马对抗,在国际冷战背景下相关大国陆续介入,其中美国为防止印尼倒向共产主义阵营以及避免因《澳新美安全条约》而卷入军事冲突,在继续对印尼援助的基础上力主由亚洲国家自行调停解决,但美国政府的继续援助措施遭到包括英、澳、新(西兰)、马等国以及美国国会的强烈反对;英国、澳大利亚及新西兰在支持马来西亚成立和维护西南太平洋地区安全稳定的基础上,坚决反对印尼的对抗政策;日本在美国支持下积极重返东南亚市场,因此希望该地区保持稳定并提出池田斡旋计划;而苏、中两国从两大阵营对立和反帝反殖角度,分别从物质和舆论方面支持苏加诺的对抗政策。通过对印(尼)马对抗爆发期间大国角力问题的探讨,显示出东南亚地区冲突中所包含的冷战与非殖民化、革命与发展、东西方对抗与地缘政治矛盾等诸多复杂因素。     

全球化时代海陆关系的超越与中国的选择

在全球化时代,海陆关系发生着实质性的改变。从理论上来看,传统地缘政治的内涵、外延以及逻辑起点都发生了变化,因此,海陆关系要突破地理环境决定论、对抗性思维以及形而上学的思想桎梏,由片面的、静止的海陆关系向联合、互动的方向转变;从实证角度看,通过回顾海陆大国处理地缘政治关系的历史事实,提出当今海陆大国合作意愿不断加强,融合性思维逐渐替代对抗性思维的论断。全球化时代的背景下,中国在处理海陆关系上需要突出合作思想,把握地缘政治重点,处理好大国关系。     

Reproduction Versus Transformation: The Case of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

ABSTRACT

This article offers a constructive critique of Fehl and Freistein's argument that international organisations (IOs) significantly affect international stratification, either producing, reproducing or transforming inequality. It suggests that without reference to the specific purposes which individual IOs pursue and the forces driving global change, it is impossible to predict either when the goals of IOs and states might diverge, or when a particular IO might promote the reproduction of inequality on the one hand, or its transformation on the other. In particular, divergence between states on the one hand and IOs charged with the management of the global economy on the other is explained by the fact that the IOs concerned are committed to the reproduction of capital on a global scale, and therefore to the continuous transformation of global hierarchies. The argument is supported by a case study of IO support for China's Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).     

东北亚国际秩序的转型与大国的角色定位

从世界发展趋势看,所谓国际体系的转型期即指目前的国际体系向世界体系转换的过渡期。这一转型期客观地要求各个大国的正确的角色定位,即由以往的霸权模式向主导型大国模式的转换。中国欲成为引领世界发展方向的主导型大国,不仅要从文化深层确立"类本位"意识体系,而且也要建构以"和谐世界"为核心并由正义、公正、合理、民主、共赢、和平为其结构的理念体系。     

Socioeconomic Inequalities and Attitudes toward Violence: A Test with New Survey Data in the Niger Delta

Although socioeconomic inequalities are assumed to increase the risk of conflict, the mechanisms behind how inequalities affect attitudes toward violence are poorly understood. The differences between individual (vertical) and group (horizontal) inequalities, and the role that perception of inequality plays, have not been investigated to any great extent due to limited data availability. This study aims at providing a better understanding of the effects of different kinds of inequality by testing new survey data collected in the Niger Delta. Using attitudes of acceptance of the use of violence as the dependent variable, the study compares the effects of horizontal and vertical inequalities and actual versus perceived inequalities. The effect of access to oil resources is also tested for horizontal inequalities (actual and perceived). The results show that both vertical and horizontal inequalities matter for the acceptance of violence. While relatively deprived individuals are more likely to support violence, among groups it is the relatively privileged. However, in oil regions, the more deprived groups are more likely to support violence. In general, perceived inequalities appear to be more important than actual inequalities.     

东北亚大国关系中第三方因素及地区安全共同治理

中日关系经济上的合作依存度与政治上的纷争摩擦常态化这一结构性的矛盾日趋显现.从更深层次上探究中日政治经济所处的这种分裂状态根源,从本质上讲背后蕴涵着东北亚大国关系中的域外因素:即美国的第三方因素,其对东北亚的和平稳定发挥着特殊作用.东北亚大国在地区的竞争摩擦时常较为突出,但中美日在东亚地区还是蕴涵着许多重大的共同利益.东北亚传统的"管制型"安全模式需向大国共同"治理型"模式转变趋向,意味着大国区域安全治理的权利、利益、责任的平等与分享,地区安全治理是在大国协作框架下的共同治理,应注重大国在地区安全事务中的关键作用.     

Contestation and resistance: the politics of and around transitional justice in Nepal

The shift to adopting holistic approaches in transitional justice indicates an intention to pay (greater) attention to politics in transitional justice. However, transitional justice actors frequently encounter difficulties in doing so, misread politics and misconstrue where to locate it in post-conflict contexts. Using research from Nepal I argue that there is considerable political activity taking place that challenges transitional justice on multiple scales. This research demonstrates that actors frequently seek to advance their interests and make claims utilising the process, institutions and language of transitional justice. In particular, I draw upon resistance literature and contentious politics literature to elucidate the complex relationships and interactions at the local and national level, which are often omitted from discussions about transitional justice in Nepal. Accordingly, I argue it is more useful to consider actors’ actions in relation to transitional justice on a continuum where there is co-option, resistance, contestation and compliance with a wide range of variation within each.     

中朝边境贸易的现状及其对边境地区社会经济的影响

中朝边境贸易具有悠久的历史,改革开放后,在中央搞活边境贸易、兴边富民的政策下,沿图们江和鸭绿江的中朝边境线地方政府积极开展边境贸易。边境贸易不仅是进出口贸易的重要组成部分,也是边境地区发展外向型经济的主要途径,对稳定边境地区的安全也具有积极的影响。朝鲜经济的恢复,将需要大量的原油、焦碳、机械、原材料以及粮食、轻工业品。积极开拓朝鲜市场对边境地区发展外向型经济以及促进图们江地区跨国经济区建设具有重要的战略意义。     

Change and Stasis: The Institutionalisation of Developing Country Mitigation in the International Climate Regime

Diplomacy is an institution that has undergone tremendous change over the last century—not least in relation to the new, supranational institutions of the European Community/European Union. Nonetheless, it is only very recently that political scientists and historians have taken an interest in the changes brought about by European integration processes for diplomatic norms, roles, and practices. This article investigates the background for this late and limited interest. It does so by comparing and contrasting dominant theoretical trends that have shaped research on European diplomacy in the two disciplines since the Second World War. Against this background it briefly evaluates the recent surge in research on diplomacy and the European Union within political science, and it points to possible avenues for further, joint, research combining the transnational and sociological approaches adopted by political scientists with the attention to temporality and national specificities characteristic of historians' dealings with European diplomacy.     

俄加入世贸组织过渡期黑龙江省对俄经贸合作对策

俄罗斯于2012年8月正式成为世贸组织成员国。加入WTO后,俄必须遵守WTO规则要求,投资环境进一步趋好,市场准入扩大,将为黑龙江省推进对俄经贸合作提供难得发展机遇。但这并不意味着对俄合作风险已完全消除,黑龙江省对俄合作仍将面临诸多挑战,在俄加入WTO过渡期,应主动适应新形势,推动对俄经贸合作实现又好又快发展。     

Order and Contestation in the Asia-Pacific Region: Liberal vs Developmental/Non-interventionist Approaches

Abstract

The United States/European-inspired liberal international order has long been challenged in the Asia-Pacific. During the Cold War years, Washington sponsored a developmental, state-interventionist order to contain the threat from Asian communism. This developmental order persisted even as the end of the Cold War allowed the US to promote a liberal regional order. Moreover, after the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98, the US was increasing constrained by its post-9/11 preoccupation with the Middle East, the rise of China, its responsibility for the Great Recession of 2008-09 and the infighting that consumed Washington. While elements of a liberal order can be found in the Asia-Pacific today, they must continue to contend with non-interventionist and developmental values still found in the region.     

新贸易环境下中韩FTA促进战略评析

中韩建交20年来,双边经贸关系发展迅速。近年来,随着中韩贸易环境的变化,两国出于经济、政治、安全利益的需要,在进一步加强合作以缔结中韩FTA方面逐渐达成共识,继而推动中韩FTA步入实施阶段。中韩FTA生效后,将会给两国带来巨大的经济效应,预计对两国GDP增长、消费者福利增加、市场占有率提高等都会产生积极影响。中韩两国处在不同的产业发展阶段,在贸易自由化程度和范围方面存在着差异。在谈判过程中,两国还会存在不少争论焦点,对于具体实行效果也会存在一些担忧,有待两国本着合作互利的原则通过协商加以解决。     

Domestic and Systemic Determinants of Capital Controls in the Developed and Developing World

This paper examines the utility of and preference for controls on short-term capital. Recent work in international political economy has argued that the increasing internationalization of finance has constrained the ability of governments to pursue independent monetary policies. For the most part this conclusion has been reached through an examination of a small number of advanced industrialized countries. This article argues not only that the globalization of finance is far from all-encompassing but also that domestic forces play a more significant role in explaining the implementation and removal of capital controls than do systemic factors. Capital controls are more likely to be put in place by governments that repress the financial sector, that choose to maintain a fixed exchange rate, and that are facing balance-of-payments crises. These propositions are tested using a random effects probit model on a panel of ninety-one countries from 1967 to 1992.