Armed Conflict and Adolescents’ Early Transition to Childbearing

We estimate the effect of armed conflict on adolescents’ childbearing transition. Three types of models are estimated: models in origin, which determine the current effect of violence; context change models, which estimate the effect of decreased violence levels; and violence aftermath models, which indicate the groups that do not completely adapt to a peaceful context. Through multilevel logistic models, we find that the coefficient of violence depends on the municipality in where adolescents reside or resided. We conclude that violence promotes the transition to childbearing particularly among rural females. However, a reduction in violence levels reduces the probabilities of childbearing.     

Reconstructing and Reforming the Financial System in Conflict and ‘Post-Conflict’ Economies

Reconstructing the financial system in countries affected by violent conflict is crucial to successful and broad-based recovery. Particularly important tasks include: currency reform, rebuilding (or creating) central banks, revitalising the banking sector, and strengthening prudential supervision and regulation. Encouragement of private capital into the banking sector must be balanced by protection of the public interest, a task made more difficult by the nature of war-to-peace transition. Bank crises can destabilise economies in recovery from war, and their fiscal burden takes resources away from development and poverty spending – thereby threatening ‘post-conflict’ reconstruction itself.     

Peace in Our Time? The Stresses and Strains on the Northern Ireland Peace Process

This article aims to critically evaluate the present state of the peace process in Northern Ireland after nearly two years. Particular attention is placed on the security analysis of the situation, which is a perspective that is rarely heard in public, perhaps because it is often highly critical of the entire process. From this background the article takes a pessimistic view of any hopes for long-term peace or stability in the Province, largely because the Good Friday Agreement, the core of the process, was ill-conceived. In fact, the entire process appears to have been built around anything other than addressing the real problems of the Province and has been heavily weighted in favor of appeasing IRA violence. In consequence Unionists are becoming increasingly disillusioned and alienated from the process and now find themselves on the verge of withdrawing their support from it.     

Financing War or Facilitating Peace? The Impact of Rebel Drug Trafficking on Peace Negotiations in Colombia and Myanmar

Rebel involvement in drug trafficking is broadly found to prolong and intensify civil wars. Being an illicit good with strong demand, high profit margins, limited barriers to entry, and few interdiction opportunities, narcotic drugs disproportionately benefit rebel groups as a source of funding in civil wars. Furthermore, drug trafficking is believed to prolong civil wars by creating war economies that benefit rebel groups, making them reluctant to engage in peace negotiations. However, recent peace agreements suggest that drug trafficking can in some cases be used to “buy off” rebel leaders, whereas other insurgents willingly relinquish this source of funding. This article compares attempts at conflict resolution in Colombia and Myanmar, focusing on the impact drug trafficking by Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) and United Wa State Army has on contemporary peace negotiations.     

Palestinian and Israeli Cooperation in Environmental Work During the “Peace Era”

This article presents a report summarizing a pilot study conducted by the Israeli-Palestinian research team of the Peace Research Institute in the Middle East (PRIME). Sixteen Israeli and twelve Palestinian non-governmental organizations (NGOs) that were engaged in cooperative work were analyzed to measure the degree of their effectiveness in their societies, and obstacles encountered in their cooperative work. In addition, this report presents these NGOs' interpretation of the causes of environmental damage and its connection to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. NGOs data were collected from field interviews, their publications, and web sites. Results showed that while the Israeli and Palestinian NGOs agreed that joint work is needed to address ecological problems, they differed in their reasons for working together. This difference also appeared in their interpretation of the sources of environmental deterioration, relationship of the political conflict to the state of the environment, and the effect of the peace process on solving ecological problems. At the end, it was concluded that environmental narratives of both sides differ greatly, and that the establishment of a culture of peace is a protracted process.     

Conflict diamonds and the Angolan Civil War (1992–2002)

Abstract

In the early 1990s several rebel groups turned to natural resource extraction to pay for war. A key form of this is rebel diamond production, commonly referred to as conflict diamonds, which is widely perceived as being highly beneficial to insurgent organisations. Yet in the Angolan Civil War (1992–2002), the use of conflict diamonds by the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) resulted in a decisive insurgent defeat. How can this outcome be explained? Offering a nuanced understanding of how conflict diamonds affect civil war, this article shows that although diamonds generated considerable revenue for UNITA, they were not an effective method for them to take on the Angolan government. This was for two reasons: internally, the rebels greatly struggled to convert their diamond proceeds into sufficient goods and services; and externally, it left the group highly vulnerable to international countermeasures in the form of United Nations Security Council sanctions. Natural resource extraction may therefore not be as useful to rebel groups as is frequently believed.     

Estimating the Effects of Conflict on Education in Côte d’Ivoire

Abstract

This article evaluates the effect of armed conflict on years of schooling in Côte d’Ivoire. We combine differences in conflict intensity across departments and differences across age cohorts to identify an individual’s indirect exposure to conflict. The difference-in-difference outcomes indicate that the average years of education for a school-going-age cohort is 0.94 years fewer compared to an older cohort in conflict-affected regions. We further use a set of victimisation indicators to identify the direct effect of conflict. Overall, the findings across different models suggest a drop in average years of education by a range of 0.2 to 0.9 fewer years. The estimated effect is larger for males and individuals between 19 and 22 years of age.     

Peace at Daggers Drawn? Boko Haram and the State of Emergency in Nigeria

More than 3,500 people have died in Nigeria since 2009 when Boko Haram, a radical Islamist group from northeastern Nigeria, launched its violent campaign to wrest power from the Nigerian government and foist an Islamic state under the supreme law of Sharia. Attempts at negotiating with the group, including the recent amnesty offer extended to its members by the Nigerian government, have stalled due to distrust on both sides and the factionalized leadership of the group's different cells. This article provides a systematic account of Boko Haram's emergence, demands, and modus operandi. It also evaluates how the Nigerian government has responded to the group's threat and how they should respond. The socioeconomic approach of this article helps to explain the Boko Haram problem beyond a usual religious agenda and to evaluate the development of the group in the context of Nigeria's checkered political history and local economic grievances.     

Peace building and the depoliticisation of civil society: Sierra Leone 2002–13

Over the past two decades there has been a rapid increase in funds for local civil society actors in fragile states. Current peace-building and development efforts strive for the recreation of a vibrant, active and ‘liberal’ civil society. In the case of Sierra Leone, paradoxically, this growing support has not strengthened civil society actors based on that liberal idea(l). Instead of experiencing enhanced proactive participation stemming from the civil sphere, Sierra Leone’s civil society appears to be largely depoliticised. Drawing on empirical data gathered over the past four years, this article offers three interrelated causal explanations of why this phenomenon occurred during the country’s peace-building phase from 2002 to 2013. First, Sierra Leone’s civil society landscape has become instrumentalised to serve a broader liberal peace-building and development agenda in several ways. Second, Western idea(l)s of participatory approaches and democracy are repeatedly challenged by the legacies of colonial rule and socially entrenched forms of neo-patrimonialism. Third, abject poverty and the lack of education affect activism and agency from below.     

Conceptualizing “Post-Conflict Reconstruction” and “Ongoing Conflict Reconstruction” of Failed States

In recent decades, the world has seen many internal violent conflicts that dramatically affect the social, economic, and political conditions of human geographies at multiple spatial scales, from the national level to the scale of individual cities and communities. Geography, as a multidimensional discipline, should be in a unique position to contribute to understanding of such conflicts and of post-conflict geographies and their futures in terms of reconstruction and rebuilding. However, in the geography literature, there is little attention given to post-conflict human geographies and their related subjects. At present, there are many emerging post-conflict geographies, which would greatly benefit from theoretical and practical knowledge to guide their future. This paper aims to contribute to building a foundation for developing knowledge on reconstruction of post-conflict and ongoing conflict human geographies. Based on the existing multidisciplinary bodies of knowledge on post-conflict reconstruction, this paper develops a new conceptual framework for post-conflict reconstruction and for ongoing conflict reconstruction as a more adequate way to understand and plan reconstruction in the face of ongoing conflict and offers new insights for the reconstruction agenda.     

A Hybrid Peace through Locally Owned and Externally Financed ssr–ddr in Rwanda?

This article aims to critically examine Rwanda's security sector reform and disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (ssr–ddr) process through a theoretical framework outlining four different models of peace processes in order to identify the sort of peace that can emerge from Rwanda's ssr–ddr approach. The author analyses how the Rwandan government has managed to keep the process ‘locally’ owned, while largely financed by external actors, despite strong criticism of its apparent lack of democratisation. The ‘genocide credit’, the Rwandan government's preference for national, rather than international solutions and its recent troop contribution to peacebuilding operations in the region are identified as the main reasons for this development. The paper argues that the peace emanating from the ssr–ddr process may be considered a hybrid form of state formation and state building, because of the local agency's preference for security and stability while simultaneously enjoying financial and technocratic support for its ‘liberal’ peacebuilding actions in the region.     

Africa’s Pasts and Africa’s Historians

Creation of local government districts has become an enterprise in Uganda, with many stakeholders having diverse opinions about the government's motives. This article examines the questions: What are the proclaimed and hidden or implicit intentions of the government? What evidence is available to provide reasonable interpretation of government action according to a particular rationale? By triangulating primary and secondary data and using a deductive approach, the study concludes that the initial intention of the government to create new districts to bring services and government closer to the people was consistent with the country's constitution and decentralisation policy. However, since 1997, and especially since 2006, other rationales have come to the fore, though not communicated as such in public policy statements. While we do not exclude ethnic rationale, the article finds more evidence that points to political patronage and a variant of gerrymandering (namely, that of splitting up districts while not redrawing boundaries).     

Roadworks Ahead? Addressing Fraud,Corruption and Conflict of Interest in English Local Government

The current localism agenda, and other legislative and organisational changes, will impact on English local government’s capacity and commitment to address fraud, corruption and conflict of interest from both investigative and preventative perspectives. These have been issues for local government since the nineteenth century onwards, often brought to prominence during specific scandals or periods of extensive change. This article summarises the reforms in terms of a ‘low road’ of a control environment and of a ‘high road’ of an ethical governance framework, and their perceived interrelationship, up to the introduction of the Localism agenda. It discusses how far the current changes may change the emphasis between roads in returning to an amended control environment, particularly in terms of the publication of the Fighting Fraud Locally strategy. It concludes with concerns less about the various initiatives promoted by the strategy than the implications of whether councils have the capacity or commitment to continue along the high road of ethical governance.     

Between poverty and prosperity: China’s dependent development and the ‘middle-income trap’

Despite China’s rapid economic growth in the past three decades, Chinese officials and experts are increasingly worried that the country is slowly heading towards the ‘middle-income trap’. The fear is that China might suffer the same stagnation and turbulence as Latin American economies did in the 1980s and 1990s. Will China be able to avoid this trap? Building on the insights of world-systems theory, this paper argues that China’s dependent development, although enabling it to escape the ‘poverty trap’, is likely to bog it down in the ‘middle-income trap’. China’s heavy reliance upon foreign technologies and investment has harmful effects on its economy. Dependent development not only increases China’s economic vulnerability but also truncates domestic industries. To escape the trap, the Chinese state should play a more active role in shifting its growth model away from low-end commodity manufacturing to knowledge-based, high value-added activities.     

‘Sustainable development’ and the environment

The Sociology of Modernization and Development. By David Harrison. London: Unwin Hyman, 1988. Pp.xvi + 196 £30 and £10.95. ISBN 0 04 301220 5 and 301221 3.

Theories of Development: Capitalism, Colonialism and Dependency. By Jorge Larrain. Cambridge: Polity Press, 1989. Pp.ix + 252. £29.50 and £8.95. ISBN 07456 0710 1 and 0711 X.

The Globalisation of High Technology Production: Society Space and Semiconductors in the Restructuring of the Modern World. By Jeffrey Henderson. London: Routledge, 1989. Pp.xxiii + 198 £30. ISBN 0 415 03139 7.

Conflict Resolution in Uganda. Edited by Kumar Rupesinghe. Oslo: International Peace Research Institute (Peace Research Monograph No.16), 1989. Pp.307. £25 (hardback), £9.95 (paperback). ISBN 0 85255 334 X and 333 1.

Growing Out of Debt. By Adrian Hewitt and Bowen Wells. Nottingham: Russell Press for the Overseas Development Institute for the All Party Parliamentary Group on Overseas Development. Pp.83. £4.95 (paperback). ISBN 0 85003 1214.

Oil in the World Economy. Edited by R.W. Ferrier and A. Fursenko. London: Routledge, 1989. Pp.xii + 113. £35. ISBN 0 415 00379 2.

Industrial Adjustment in Sub‐Saharan Africa. Edited by Gerald M. Meier and William F. Steel. Oxford: Oxford University Press for the World Bank, 1989. Pp. xvi + 293. £22.50. ISBN 0 19 520784 X.

Farm Implements for Small‐scale Farmers in Tanzania. By Bjorn Mothander, Finn Kjaerby and Kjell Havnevik. Uppsala: The Scandinavian Institute of African Studies, 1989. Pp.214. SEK 120. ISBN 91 7106 290 4.

Urban Poverty and the Labour Market: Access to Jobs and Incomes in Asian and Latin American Cities. Edited by Gerry Rodgers. Geneva: International Labour Office, 1989. Pp.xv + 257. Sw. frs. 35. ISBN 92 2 106499 9 and 106500 6.     

Beyond ‘Terrorism’ and ‘State Hegemony’: assessing the Islamist mainstream in Egypt and Malaysia

International networks of Islamic ‘terrorism’ have served as the most popular explanation to describe the phenomenon of political Islam since the 11 September attacks. This paper argues that both the self-proclaimed doctrinal Islam of the militants and Western perceptions of a homogeneous Islamist threat need to be deconstructed in order to discover the often ambiguous manifestations of ‘official’ and ‘opposition’ Islam, of modernity and conservatism. As a comparison of two Islamic countries, Egypt and Malaysia, which both claim a leading role in their respective regions, shows, moderate Islamic groups have had a considerable impact on processes of democratisation and the emergence of civil society during the quarter century since the ‘Islamic resurgence’. Shared experiences like coalition building and active participation within the political system demonstrate the influence and importance of groups such as the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamic Youth Movement of Malaysia (abim) or the Islamic Party of Malaysia (pas). These groups have shaped the political landscape to a much larger extent than the current pre-occupation with the ‘terrorist threat’ suggests. The gradual development of a ‘culture of dialogue’ has rather revealed new approaches towards political participation and democracy at the grassroots level.     

Austerity,rationing and inequity: trends in children’s and young peoples’ services expenditure in England between 2010 and 2015

This article investigates local authority (LA) trends in expenditure on Children’s and Young Peoples’ services in England between 2010 and 2015, a period of government characterised by measures of fiscal austerity. We draw on a rationing framework to contextualise the levels and trends in expenditure under observation. The article analyses trends in various groupings of expenditure, using a latent growth modelling approach to identify significant trajectories in spending across LAs with different deprivation tertile membership. We find that although some kinds of children’s and young peoples’ services expenditure have been largely maintained during this period, preventive family support and early intervention services (such as Sure Start Children’s centres) have seen substantial reductions in expenditure, in contrast to the dominant narrative that children’s services have been protected. LAs in the most deprived tertile have faced the greatest cuts, mirroring other research findings on the distribution of austerity measures.     

Praxis and paradigms of local and expatriate workers in ‘Aidland’

This paper discusses practices and paradigms that expatriate and national humanitarian aid workers use to deal with major problems they encounter in their daily work. It views ‘Aidland’ as an arena where different actors encounter, negotiate and shape the outcome of aid. One of the main findings is that there are consistent differences in the way expatriate and national aid actors perceive problems in their field, as well as in the way they respond to these issues. The paper shows that these perceptions often translate into heterogeneous paradigms and practices between expatriate and national staff, particularly around remote control aid, partnerships and donor reporting. These findings are highly relevant in the current context of ‘localisation’, suggesting that the so-called North/South divide continues to exist and more explicit attention should be given in aid research to the heterogeneous strategies of different actors working in the aid sector. The paper is based on analysis of data derived from a multiple-round Delphi expert panel study involving 30 highly experienced humanitarian aid practitioners.