The territorial genealogies of Russia's political parties and the transferability of political machines

This article uses statistical analysis of aggregate electoral returns in order to establish continuities in the territorial patterns of support between four major political parties of contemporary Russia, on the one hand, and those parties that contested national legislative (Duma) elections from 1993 through 2007, on the other hand. It is hypothesized that such continuities, dubbed “territorial genealogies,” are largely rooted in the migration of region-based gubernatorial political machines from one national party to another, which constitutes a major flow of organizational continuity in the development of political parties. Statistical analysis confirms that the main hubs of machine politics in Russia's regions, originating from the intra-elite struggles of the 1990s, provide United Russia with the territorial core of its current support. Other political parties retain electoral salience in those regions where their electoral appeal is not mitigated by the presence of political machines, which underscores the importance of non-machine party organization for their electoral destinies.     

俄国驻中国喀什噶尔领事彼得罗夫斯基与近代英俄大博弈

尼古拉·费奥多罗维奇·彼得罗夫斯基是俄国驻我国新疆喀什噶尔第一任领事,其任期正值近代英国与俄国的中亚大博弈时期.彼得罗夫斯基利用其在当地的影响力,精心编织情报网络,培训情报人员,收集新疆地区军事政治要情,为俄国推行对华侵略政策提供信息服务,并严密监视英国动向,协助俄国军队占领我国帕米尔地区.在经济方面,彼得罗夫斯基通过扩大俄国商圈、打压英国在新疆的贸易和扰乱金融体系等手段,帮助俄国扩大对新疆的贸易.此外,彼得罗夫斯基利用职务之便在我国新疆喀什噶尔及其周边地区大肆劫掠文物,并与俄国国内积极互动,为俄国考察者提供文物信息和物质支持,在此方面,也将英国视为最大竞争对手.在彼得罗夫斯基的苦心经营下,19世纪末20世纪初俄国在新疆地区的影响力得到极大的扩张,无论在政治、经济还是文物掠夺方面,相对于英国均占据了先机.     

也谈俄罗斯知识分子的发轫

俄罗斯知识分子问世的问题关系到如何看待俄罗斯知识分子的本质和特征,怎样评价知识分子在民族文化中的作用,知识分子的民族特征、类型及其内在规律和发展趋势等问题.俄学界之所以对此争论不休,很大程度上与其对知识分子界定标准的多元化有关:或以社会结构为依据,或以知识分子的特点为出发点,或从知识分子的功能角度.实际上上述种种观点互为补充,应加以综合分析研究.     

The nature of political advising to prime ministers in Australia,Canada, New Zealand and the UK

Political advisors to heads of government occupy such a privileged sphere of influence that their role is a source of consternation among democratic idealists. Interviews with advisors to prime ministers of Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the UK inform a small body of comparative literature about political advising in the Commonwealth. The authors find that first ministers consider input from many advisors and therefore the counsel of any one advisor is of limited impact. Further research is needed to understand the extent to which these agents project the power of the executive office and make decisions on the principal's behalf.     

The political psychology of participation in Turkey: civic engagement,basic values,political sophistication and the young

This article aims to understand the recent heightened levels of mobilization and unconventional political participation in Turkey. We use a political psychology model that highlights the impact of civic engagement, political sophistication, and values on conventional and unconventional participation. We argue that these factors will be significant predictors of unconventional participation setting it apart from conventional political behaviour, which will be driven by simpler considerations. We expect these qualitative differences in the drivers of conventional and unconventional participation to go beyond age and gender differences and highlight the complexity of political decision-making in Turkey’s electoral authoritarian system. We use the 2012 World Value Survey to test our hypotheses, with a nationally representative sample of Turkish citizens. We find significant variations in the role of values, sophistication and levels of civic engagement for conventional and unconventional participation when controlling for age, gender and left–right ideological orientations. Our findings confirm the complex considerations that drive citizens’ engagement with politics and can be useful to explaining recent political developments in Turkey involving youth, public mobilization and protests, but also mainstream voting choices.     

论俄罗斯混合市场经济模式的形成及特点

鉴于学术界对于俄罗斯经济发展模式存在不同观点,本文首先分析了俄罗斯从建立自由主义市场经济的政策取向到混合市场经济模式的转变过程,然后分析了俄罗斯混合市场经济模式的突出特征.在此基础上,文章对俄罗斯混合市场经济模式作出评价.最后得出结论,认为以强国富民为目标的混合市场经济模式是俄罗斯经济取得新发展的正确途径,进一步兴利除弊是保持经济增长速度和实现经济多样发展的重要前提.     

The rise and decline of the new party: Ideology, resources and the political opportunity structure

This paper analyses the growth and decline of Taiwan's first significant third party, the New Party (NP). The NP won numerous seats in the national parliaments in the mid-1990s and received extensive media attention. However, it has shown a steady electoral decline since the late 1990s. Despite its poor recent election performance, the NP should not be regarded as a failure, as it has actually been remarkably successful at achieving its original objectives. By 2004, the KMT's policy positions had become so close to those of the NP that the NP was prepared to promote a party merger and allow its politicians to stand for election under a KMT banner. I challenge the most common explanation that the NP rose when united and fell when divided by bitter factional struggles. Instead a framework incorporating ideology, resources and political opportunity structure is employed to explain the rise and fall of the NP. I argue that when the NP faced a benign political environment in the mid-1990s, its moderate political message and rich human resources enabled the party to grow rapidly. However, after March 1996, the political environment became progressively more hostile, and as the NP's resources were eroded and wasted and the party moved towards a narrow and extremist political project, the party began its terminal decline. The space for the NP became even more limited after 2000, when party had to face intense competition from a powerful new KMT splinter party, the PFP, and a rejuvenated, united and orthodox KMT.     

The three colors of Novorossiya,or the Russian nationalist mythmaking of the Ukrainian crisis

While the annexation of Crimea boosted Putin's popularity at home, the Donbas insurgency shattered the domestic ideological status quo. The Kremlin's position appeared somehow hesitant, fostering the resentment of Russian nationalist circles that were hoping for a second annexation. In this article, I explore the term Novorossiya as a live mythmaking process orchestrated by different Russian nationalist circles to justify the Donbas insurgency. The powerful pull of Novorossiya rests on its dual meaning in announcing the birth of a New Russia geographically and metaphorically. It is both a promised land to be added to Russia and an anticipation of Russia's own transformation. As such, Novorossiya provides for an exceptional convergence of three underlying ideological paradigms – “red” (Soviet), “white” (Orthodox), and “brown” (Fascist). The Novorossiya storyline validates a new kind of geopolitical adventurism and blurs the boundaries, both territorial and imaginary, of the Russian state.     

Demonizing the enemy: the influence of Russian state-sponsored media on American audiences

ABSTRACT

There is growing anxiety about the influence of international propaganda on public opinion. Under what conditions can countries shift foreign public opinion against an adversary? Does making people aware that news is coming from a foreign source mitigate its influence? I examine these questions in the context of Russian propaganda in the United States. I subject subgroups of Americans to an article from Russia Today (RT), a Russian international television network, criticizing the Ukrainian government. I vary whether audiences are aware of the message source, and/or the intentions, of the Russian-funded network. I show that exposure to information about Ukrainian human rights violations lowers Americans’ evaluations of Ukraine irrespective of source awareness – indicating that making people more aware of foreign propaganda does not attenuate its influence. The findings have important implications for understanding the micro-level effects of international propaganda and the effectiveness of counter-propaganda strategies.     

俄罗斯国防工业体转型路径及效用分析

俄罗斯国防工业体从前苏联时期的斯大林模式向市场导向的转型,经历了漫长而艰辛的历程.尤其是20世纪90年代的军转民实践,充满了曲折和困难,短期内削弱了其经济实力.但俄罗斯也逐渐明确了国防工业体进一步转型的方向,为推动其经济结构的进一步调整以及经济的持续发展奠定了基础.本文着重从理论上分析俄罗斯国防工业体转型的路径,并深入探讨其对经济发展的巨大影响.     

俄罗斯联邦国务委员会的起源、发展及作用——基于国家权力结构变迁视角

叶利钦执政早期,国务委员会充分发挥了协调整合行政权力的功能,使俄国家权力结构避免了宪制改革后的严重混乱失衡.1993年《俄罗斯联邦宪法》颁布后,俄罗斯的国家权力结构趋于多元化,国务委员会既无法解决中央层面的总统与立法机关的结构矛盾,又无法解决源自地方分裂主义的"央地"权力结构松散,因而归于沉寂.2000年普京开始执政后重设国务委员会.尤其在2004年"别斯兰事件"发生后,俄罗斯的国家权力结构再度集中,系统性压力激增,国务委员会的作用不断被强化,国务委员会的事务性工作人员得到扩充,工作机制和议事规则得到进一步规范.2008—2012年,国务委员会成为紧密联系"央地"的关键纽带,在一定程度上,维系了国家政治局势的稳定发展.2012年,在普京第三任期,其成功地协调了因"统一俄罗斯"党崛起而引起的联邦中央权力结构张力,缓解了央地行政层面的权力结构矛盾.2020年修宪后,国务委员会的作用向协助总统整合"全联邦"国家权力的方向转变.同时,"国务委员会"获得宪法地位,成为宪法性权力机关.     

Terrorist attacks and public approval of the Russian president: evidence from time series analysis

ABSTRACT

This article applies time series analysis to examine weekly data on Vladimir Putin’s approval rating and their dependence on terrorist attacks. I find that minor terrorist attacks with few or no fatalities in Chechnya, Ingushetia, and Dagestan increase Putin’s ratings, while major terrorist attacks, with more than four fatalities, have a negative impact. There is also evidence that terrorist attacks in other Russian regions reduce Putin’s public approval; however, this evidence is weaker and depends on the model specification. Furthermore, I control for main annual media events with President Putin’s participation: the television Q&A program “Direct Line with V. Putin,” Putin’s address to the Federal Assembly, and a large annual press conference. All three media events increase the president’s approval, with Direct Line having the least effect.     

The political knowledge of Libyan university students: Sirte and Omar Al-Mukhtar universities as two examples

This article reports on a study measuring the political knowledge of a sample of students at the Sirte and Omar Al-Mukhtar universities in Libya in 2015–2016. Variables such as the university attendees, gender, residence, type of faculty, family’s economic condition and parents’ educational level were factored into the analysis, and a sample of 400 students from the two universities was selected to provide survey data. Findings indicate that acquiring political knowledge, as a whole, requires great effort to accommodate Libya’s current circumstances. Variables of gender, residence and university type make a difference in the level of political knowledge. While income and the level of parents’ education do not determine the extent of political knowledge, the value placed on citizenship was found to have a strong effect on the variation in legal and political knowledge and on the students’ understanding of the political process.     

Intersectionality and women's political citizenship: the case of Mauritius

This paper analyses the impact of intersectionality and multiple identities on women's political citizenship in Mauritius. Mauritius is commonly known as a ‘rainbow nation’ with its multiethnic population marked by ethnic or communal divisions. Communalism dominates the Mauritian political system and institutions, intensifying during elections when the different communal groups compete for representation in parliament. The paper argues that the strong emphasis attributed to ethnic and communal representation by the Mauritian political system and structures marginalises women's political citizenship. Political candidates are often sponsored by religious and sociocultural organisations that are male dominated whereas the women's lobby is weak in comparison to the communal lobby. The paper thus contends that the communal dimension in Mauritian politics carries a significant gendered dimension. Communalism has made the political system very resistant to change, despite the fact that it marginalises women.     

Between crises and sanctions: economic policy of the Russian Federation

This paper examines the root causes and features of crises of the Russian economy in 2014–2015 as a combination of structural and institutional problems, as well as cyclical and external shocks. The demand-side model of economic growth based on massive windfall revenue from oil and gas exports from the 2000s is now exhausted, and the country needs to shift to a new, supply-side model of growth. Mobilization and liberalization are discussed as two key economic policy alternatives. The analysis includes historical retrospection, which provides some important lessons from economic developments in the twentieth century: the Great Depression and the period of stagflation, the Soviet industrialization debate and perestroika, and the New Economic Policy in the USSR and the contemporary modernization of China. Special attention is paid to the mechanisms of economic growth acceleration in present-day Russia. They include macroeconomic stabilization, structural and institutional reforms based on liberalization of economic activity, and guarantees of property rights.     

Russian defense spending after 2010: the interplay of personal,domestic, and foreign policy interests

Since 2010, Russia’s defense spending has seen an average annual real growth of 10%, causing a profound shift in the composition of government expenditure. This article examines the formal and informal processes through which Russia’s level of defense spending is determined and identifies personal, domestic, and foreign policy interests behind the rise in defense expenditures. Drawing on a combination of elite interviews and document and news analyses, I argue that domestic political and socioeconomic factors are at least as important as geopolitical and security ones in explaining Russia’s decision to push defense to the forefront of the political agenda. The findings suggest that high levels of defense spending may be politically sustainable in Russia, at least in the medium term, even though it comes at the cost of other public goods.     

Monetisation of electoral politics and the challenge of political exclusion in Nigeria

This paper argues that money has become the deciding factor in Nigerian politics. It has served the purposes of consolidating elite rule as well as the political exclusion of the non-elite. A discernible ‘ritual of money politics’, has enabled the power elite to remain in power, and new comers to develop the elite character. This paper concludes that money politics is at the heart of the general crisis of democracy and governance in Nigeria, and unless this is mitigated, reforms aimed at bringing about good governance and curbing other anomalies in the political system may not produce the desired results.     

The political transfer of parliamentary concepts and practices in the European periphery: the case of obstruction in late nineteenth- and early twentieth-century Finland

This article examines parliaments as transnational institutions. It uses Finland as an example to analyze how nineteenth- and early twentieth-century European representative assemblies were part of a joint publicity. This publicity, facilitated by the press, was actively used in developing and shaping national practices, especially in countries without an established parliamentary tradition. The transnational parliamentary publicity changed how parliaments functioned and deliberated. It was utilized in assemblies’ procedural formation and revision, democratization, and parliamentarization. The mediated models and examples were used selectively and innovatively to interpret, contextualize, and frame domestic political questions. The article examines the transfer of parliamentary obstruction from European parliaments to the four-estate Diet and the unicameral parliament of the Finnish Grand Duchy of the Russian Empire. Obstruction became part of the Finnish political repertoire soon after the Irish obstruction appeared in the British House of Commons in the late 1870s. Although no systematic obstruction campaigns were organized in early Finnish parliamentary life, the concept of obstruction was a rhetorical and ideological tool of the Finnish nationalists and socialists. The article positions Finnish discussions within wider European debates on parliaments, democratization, the rise of mass parties, and the problematic relationship between representative and deliberative aspects of parliamentary politics.     

Nothing personal: explaining the rise and decline of political machines in Ukraine

This article is the first to explore and compare the dynamics of party-building between the three main political forces that competed for power during the last decade in Ukraine – Viktor Yushchenko's Nasha Ukrayina (Our Ukraine), Yulia Tymoshenko's Batkivshchyna (Fatherland), and Viktor Yanukovych's Partiya Rehioniv (Party of Regions). We show that their political trajectories can be explained by differences in their organizational structure and distribution of resources within the party's leadership. When a party depends on resources linked primarily to one individual, it will develop a personalized decision-making structure advantaging its leader, and the party's fortunes will be tied to the popularity (or lack of same) of the leader. By contrast, when a party relies equally on resources from several groups, a more consociational style of decision-making is likely to emerge. Using Ukraine as a case study, the article shows that personality-led parties will be more vulnerable to defections and less capable of absorbing potential competitors. On the other hand, coalition-led parties are better capable of surviving defeats, maintaining internal cohesion, and merging with like-minded parties.