The Political Consequences of National Crisis Management: Micro-Level Evidence from German Voters during the 2008/09 Global Economic Crisis

How does national crisis management affect the electoral fortunes of coalition governments? Drawing on micro-level data from just before the 2009 federal elections in Germany, this article investigates how voters' evaluation of specific policies against the global financial crisis affected approval of and voting intentions for the then-governing grand coalition. We find that voters in favour of the two most prominent anti-crisis policies, the car-scrap bonus and the public guarantee for banks, were more likely to approve of and to vote for the two incumbent parties. These evaluations of specific policies influenced individuals' vote choice in addition to their assessments of the economic situation more generally and in addition to party identification. This suggests that even in the greatest economic turmoil with blurred political responsibilities, government parties can win or lose voters through the implementation of specific economic policies.     

The Impact of the Economic Crisis on the Ideological Space in Portugal and Greece: A Comparison of Elites and Voters

This work addresses the dimensions and content of ideological space in Portugal and Greece after the onset of the sovereign debt crisis and the imposition of austerity policies in the two countries. By examining both elite interviews and public opinion data, the article principally attempts to determine whether the economic crisis has created a new division in ideological space by cross-cutting or completely replacing older ones. In addition, we attempt to gauge the position of crisis-related issues relative to issue divides on European integration and globalisation which, up to now, have been dormant in Southern European countries.     

The October Crisis of 1993: Context and Implications

An eminent British specialist on Russian politics analyzes the conflict between Boris Yel'tsin and his opponents that resulted in the bloody military showdown of October 3-4, 1993. Based upon materials gathered in Moscow during the events and on the author's personal observations and interviews, the article traces the origins and course of the wider conflict. It also interprets the implications of Yel'tsin's actions for the further development of democracy in Russia.     

The Strange Phenomenon of Surplus Seats in the German Electoral System

So-called ‘surplus seats’ are peculiar to the German electoral system. Several factors are responsible for the emergence of such seats, including differences in turnout, malapportionment, split-ticket voting and the party system structure. In this article, I develop a single, formal model of the emergence of surplus seats that integrates all of these factors. This model includes the most significant interactions between these factors, for the emergence of surplus seats is a complex process that can only be explained satisfactorily if we account for these interactions.     

Elections and Economic Turbulence in Brazil: Candidates, Voters, and Investors

The relation between elections and the economy in Latin America might be understood by considering the agency of candidates and the issue of policy preference congruence between investors and voters. The preference congruence model proposed in this article highlights political risk in emerging markets. Certain risk features increase the role of candidate campaign rhetoric and investor preferences in elections. When politicians propose policies that can appease voters and investors, elections may have a limited effect on economic indicators, such as inflation. But when voter and investor priorities differ significantly, deterioration of economic indicators is more likely. Moreover, voter and investor congruence is more likely before stabilization, when an inverted Philips curve exists, as opposed to following stabilization, when a more traditional Philips curve emerges.     

"美国金融危机及其影响"研讨会纪要

[编者按]:美国次贷危机波及世界金融业,并对我国产生了一定影响.此次危机发生的原因、波及范围及其发展前景,以及它是否会对我国产生进一步影响,已成为人们关注的重要问题.2008年11月11日,中国社会科学院美国研究所经济研究室与<美国研究>编辑部联合举办了"美国金融危机及其影响"研讨会.     

The Australian Experience of Electoral Bribery: Dealing in Electoral Support

This article explores state and federal Australian cases from the past thirty years — legal judgments, inquiries and political scandals — which implicate the law and concept of electoral bribery. Specifically it examines deals involving preferences and arrangements made between politicians and “third parties” such as lobby groups and the media. It shows that, defying assumptions that it died out a century ago, electoral bribery remains a thorny ethical and legal concept, particularly given evolving norms and electioneering practices. If bribery is to be a workable ethical or legal concept for judging contemporary electoral conduct then it needs to deal with horizontal relations between political actors rather than, as it traditionally has, to focus upon vertical relations between politicians and electors characterised by the former's efforts to buy the latter's votes.     

论1929-1933年经济危机对苏美关系的影响

1929-1933年爆发的经济危机迅速由美国影响到整个资本主义世界,使美国及世界经济遭受重创.这对世界局势产生了重要的影响,并且也改变了美国的国内和国际环境.而苏联经济却在此期间取得较快的发展,在世界经济中的地位也得到了提升.苏美两国面对经济危机的局势以及世界政治局势的变化,开始在摩擦中寻求改善两国关系的途径以应对变化了的国内外形势,最终两国在隔绝了16年之后确立了正常的国家关系.     

欧债危机:一个德国视角的评估

从德国的视角看,欧债危机的根本原因在于PIIGS国家(欧猪国家)在享受超出自身收入水平的生活方式上走得太远,导致其政府的持续预算赤字。一位著名的美国经济学家持不同见解,他认为成员国的竞争力差异以及加入共同货币区导致的政策工具的丧失使得欧元已经失败。德国政府相信有两个政策工具可以解决危机:第一,制定强制所有成员国采取预算紧缩的财政协议;第二,创建一个基金用以救助受到破产威胁的成员国政府。包括发行欧元区共同债券和赋予欧洲中央银行以最后贷款人地位在内的一系列政策措施都被德国政府拒绝了。德国政府强烈反对将欧元区转化为转移支付联盟。而由德国政府提出的政策措施也都归于失败,因为预算紧缩政策导致了欧猪国家的经济负增长,进而加大了其减少公债的难度。在德国政府看来,为保证欧猪国家不放松降低财政赤字的努力,继续保持金融市场上的压力是必要的。笔者认为,除非德国政府采取针对经济弱国的更加合作的态度,否则欧元区将极有可能归于终结。     

国际金融危机冲击下中东欧国家经济走势分析

2000-2007年,中东欧国家的经济总体上呈平稳快速发展的趋势,2007年国际金融危机爆发后,中东欧转轨国家经济形势迅速恶化.国际金融危机对中东欧国家经济的冲击和影响与这些国家转型后形成的制度基础和经济发展模式有关.本文就国际金融危机对这些国家经济的冲击,从多个侧面分析相关原因,并对未来发展趋势进行了预测.     

When Valence Crushes: Explaining the Electoral Failure of the German FDP in the 2013 Election

This paper examines why the German Free Democratic Party (FDP) failed to gain electoral success in 2013 despite being well positioned in terms of left–right ideology. Indeed, its vote share dropped from its highest ever point in 2009 (14.6 per cent of the national vote) to its lowest ever in 2013 (4.8 per cent of the vote). The paper shows that the FDP’s valence dropped dramatically between 2009 and 2013. In addition, voting simulations show that the FDP was positioned close to its vote-maximising positions on policy and ideology. However, given the FDP’s extremely low valence it could not have taken any set of policy positions that would have significantly increased its vote share.     

越南“经济危机”的非经济解读

根据2008年6月国内媒体着力报道越南"经济危机"的情况,本文着重探讨国内媒体关注越南的动因,并探讨越南经济"危机"与否.2007年末开始,持续走好的越南经济出现了若干困难,并持续到2008年.2008年6月,国内媒体大规模地报道越南的经济"危机"--楼市、股市等表现,同时也有学者用"较大困难"一词形容越南经济.国内媒体对越南的关注更多地是提醒中国.类似的关注模式此前也有出现.此类关注更多是借题发挥,而对越南的报道显得有些片面.     

俄罗斯经济转轨的路径选择与转型性经济危机

俄罗斯经济转型问题研究是一个宏大的学术问题。视角不同,逻辑路线和问题设定将有很大差别。本文主要从制度视角展开对俄罗斯经济转型的路径选择和绩效特征进行概括性分析和描述。分析认为,俄罗斯经济转轨的路径选择是一系列因素综合作用的结果;俄罗斯转型性经济危机是转轨的政策设计以及转轨中的公共选择力量博弈的结果。     

国际金融危机对越南经济政策的影响

经济全球化使越南经济成为世界经济中一颗耀眼的新星,同时也使越南经济与世界经济的联系越来越紧密.本文首先分析了2007年底以来由美国引起的国际金融危机对越南经济的影响,接下来介绍了面对国际金融危机造成的经济下滑,越南政府提出的一系列的经济刺激计划,最后展望了越南的经济前景.