Criminal Deterrence: Evidence from an Individual-Level Analysis of 24/7 Sobriety

Decisionmakers continue to search for new ways to deter criminal behavior that do not rely on increasing the severity of punishment. This paper evaluates South Dakota's 24/7 Sobriety Program—a novel, large-scale intervention requiring those arrested for or convicted of an alcohol-related offense to abstain from alcohol and submit to alcohol tests multiple times daily. Those testing positive or missing a test receive a swift,certain, and moderate sanction; typically, a night or two in jail. To estimate the causal effect of the 24/7 program on the probability of rearrest or probation revocation for those arrested for a second or third driving under the influence (DUI) offense, we instrument an individual's 24/7 participation with program availability in the county of arrest. We estimate that the individual-level probability of rearrest or probation revocation is 13.7 percentage points (49 percent; p = 0.002) lower for 24/7 participants than non-participants 12 months after their DUI arrest. We detect substantive decreases at 24 and 36 months, but the precision of those estimates depends on model specification. These findings provide empricial support for applying “swift-certain-fair” sanctions to deter noncompliance in community supervision settings. This paper also provides policymakers with evidence for a new approach to reduce criminal activity among those whose alcohol use leads them to repeatedly threaten public health and safety.     

When Common Identities Decrease Trust: An Experimental Study of Partisan Women

How does sharing a common gender identity affect the relationship between Democratic and Republican women? Social psychological work suggests that common ingroup identities unite competing factions. After closely examining the conditions upon which the common ingroup identity model depends, I argue that opposing partisans who share the superordinate identity of being a woman will not reduce their intergroup biases. Instead, I predict that raising the salience of their gender will increase cross‐party biases. I support my hypotheses with a nationally representative survey of 3,000 adult women and two survey experiments, each with over 1,000 adult women. These findings have direct implications for how women evaluate one another in contentious political settings and, more broadly, for our understanding of when we can and cannot rely upon common identities to bridge the partisan divide.     

群体事件的社会心理分析及应对策略

群体事件是我国社会稳定与和谐社会建设进程中的不和谐因素.从社会心理学的角度来看,群体事件是人们在社会心理失衡与激情状态下的非理性行为,它们的发生与人们社会认同的降低和价值取向的偏差密切相关.在构建和谐社会进程中,建立社会心理预警机制,构建社会认同感培养机制,为社会群体提供发泄不良情绪的机会,强化心理疏导工作是防止群体事件发生和升级扩大的有效途径.     

Group size and the free-rider hypothesis: An examination of new evidence from churches

Conventional economic wisdom maintains that expansion of group size exacerbates group members' free riding tendencies. Nevertheless, experimental studies attempting to account for the effects of group size on free riding have failed to support a pure “numbers effect.” This study corroborates these experimental findings by examining contributions of church members from congregations of three prominent U.S. Protestant denominations. As a whole, these results show that, for congregations ranging from 7 members to 3,294 members, per member contributions do not decline with increased membership. The free-rider problem does not appear to be exacerbated by increases in group size.     

The Partisan Origins of Economic Perceptions in a Weak Party System: Evidence from South Korea

Political Behavior - While political accountability requires that voters can form an accurate picture of government performance, public evaluations of government performance in established...     

集团腐败:基于社会关系视角的解读

目前研究集团腐败一般是从低度社会化的经济人假设和过度社会化的社会人假设出发,两者由于没有考虑具体的社会情境来补充解释,从而陷入理论假设的陷阱.集团腐败是由不法交易关系联结而成的,必须将其嵌入社会关系结构中进行观察.通过分析发现,集团腐败在纯粹利益交换之上衍生出了基于互惠信任的社会交换,通过真实的社会情境建立了情感义务的人际纽带.中国社会文化情境中集团腐败受到亲缘血缘等人情要素的影响,亲密、信任与责任使得交换过程中形成互惠规范.通过互惠交换产生了横向平行与纵向垂直的关系结构,推动集团内部的权力分化进而构建微观秩序系统,最终使集团腐败成为嵌入在社会关系结构中具有总体性文化情境认知的人际联结.     

Interest Group Strategies: Navigating Between Privileged Access and Strategies of Pressure

The literature often contrasts interest groups possessing insider status and outsider groups forced to seek influence through more indirect means. Drawing on data from a survey of all national Danish interest groups, this article demonstrates that most groups have an action repertoire including both direct contacts to bureaucrats and parliamentarians and indirect activities such as media campaigns and mobilizations of members. Different strategies of influence are correlated positively, hence, there is no contradiction between pursuing strategies associated with insider access to decision-making and strategies where pressure is put on decision makers through media contacts and mobilizations. An analysis of four distinct strategies – an administrative, a parliamentary, a media and a mobilization strategy – finds interesting variations in the factors that affect the pursuance of the various strategies of influence. Groups with a privileged position vis-à-vis decision makers have high levels of activities targeting these decision makers, but the lack of a privileged position does not lead groups to pursue indirect strategies. Indirect strategies are most intensively pursued by cause groups and groups who find themselves in a competitive situation with regard to attracting members.     

Political Communication in the UK: A Study of Pressure Group Behaviour

The main political parties' adoption of 'soundbites' and 'spin-doctors' has led UK political communication to become dominated by a 'promotional culture'. This article describes the historical development of this trend and the academic debate it has stimulated over the 'quality' of contemporary political communication. The article then argues that by exploring how pressure groups have adopted similar promotional techniques a valuable new dimension can be added to this debate, which focuses on the ability to gain access to media coverage. Finally, this point is illustrated with a case study of Liberty, a civil liberties pressure group.     

“I Disrespectfully Agree”: The Differential Effects of Partisan Sorting on Social and Issue Polarization

Disagreements over whether polarization exists in the mass public have confounded two separate types of polarization. When social polarization is separated from issue position polarization, both sides of the polarization debate can be simultaneously correct. Social polarization, characterized by increased levels of partisan bias, activism, and anger, is increasing, driven by partisan identity and political identity alignment, and does not require the same magnitude of issue position polarization. The partisan‐ideological sorting that has occurred in recent decades has caused the nation as a whole to hold more aligned political identities, which has strengthened partisan identity and the activism, bias, and anger that result from strong identities, even though issue positions have not undergone the same degree of polarization. The result is a nation that agrees on many things but is bitterly divided nonetheless. An examination of ANES data finds strong support for these hypotheses.     

The Enduring Effects of Social Pressure: Tracking Campaign Experiments Over a Series of Elections

Recent field experiments have demonstrated the powerful effect of social pressure messages on voter turnout. This research note considers the question of whether these interventions’ effects persist over a series of subsequent elections. Tracking more than one million voters from six experimental studies, we find strong and statistically significant enduring effects one and sometimes two years after the initial communication.     

Child Poverty and Social Mobility: Taking the Measure of the Coalition's ‘New Approach’

Reviewing two of the latest reports by social mobility tsar, Alan Milburn and ‘social justice’ champion, Iain Duncan Smith, the article examines the politics and policy of the Coalition's fairness strategy and the jostling for position that is going on behind the scenes. Whilst continuing to pay lip service to the goal of ending child poverty, the government is seeking to redefine the problem, away from a narrow focus on relative low income. Beneath the rhetoric, the article highlights the close similarities between the ‘new’ and ‘old’ approaches, finding that the evidence behind the government's claims is unconvincing. Far from offering a ‘step‐change’ in provision, it concludes that in the new age of austerity the Coalition will struggle to make any positive progress on tackling poverty and improving the relative life chances of disadvantaged children.     

Private Preferences for Public Goods: Towards a Model for the Interaction of Pressure Group and Electoral Politics

This essay explores two contrasting paradigms of collective action in the context of some observed anomalies in the development of the welfare states, focussing on private interest mod& of public expenditure growth versus models emphasising social choice and the degree of congruence between the political responsiveness of interest groups to the public expenditure crisis since the early 1970s, and the assumptions underpinning these models on political behaviour in the mixed economies. A bifurcation of the political system, resulting from the development of systems of functional interests representation alongside parliamentary and representative government, gives rise to a potential for strong governments to maintain regime support because of, rather than despite, the political fragmentation of majorities.     

An Analysis of Women''''s Social Status at Bourgeois Times from Marriage in Pride and Prejudice

The opening sentence of Pride and Prejudice left the deep impression on readers almost two centuries ago.As the author of Pride and Prejudice,Jane Austen was one of the famous realistic writers in English literature in the nineteenth century. In Pride and Prejudice Austen wrote four marriage types:ideal Elizabeth and Darcy,realizable Charlotte and Collins,felicitous Jane and Bingley,unhappy Lydia and Wickham.She pointed out emphatically economic consideration is the bonds of wedlock and love.She said marriage is not determined by property and family status;it is unwise to marry without money,but it is wrong to marry for money;the marriage settled by love is happy and ideal.     

Understanding the Clayton Act of 1914: An Analysis of the Interest Group Hypothesis

The trusts issue culminated in the passage of the Clayton Act in1914, which conventional wisdom holds was a response to theperceived ineffectiveness of the Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890.Using ordered and multinomial logit analysis, we were able todetect economic interest variables that explain the senators'votes. The empirical findings strongly support the wealth transferhypothesis, and the regression results clearly show that senatorsresponded to interest groups. While we also found some support forthe ideological perspective, it is clear that there was much moreto the vote than the conventional story would suggest.     

Social Media and Value Conflicts: An Explorative Study of the Dutch Police

The use of social media produces new value conflicts in public governance. The police force is a public organization directly confronted with these changes. However, there is no systematic understanding of these conflicts in daily police practice or of the coping strategies used. This article presents an explorative understanding of the value conflicts and coping strategies within the police force by combining the literature on social media use in the public sector and the literature on value conflicts and by conducting a case study within the Dutch police. The empirical findings show, first, a growing emphasis on conflicts related to the values that are strongly embedded in social media use—specifically, conflicts between efficiency and participation and between transparency and lawfulness. Second, although dynamic coping strategies were expected, the research reveals that the police often use a conservative coping strategy to deal with these rapid changes.     

办事机构如何办事？——对领导小组办公室的一项整体分析

领导小组的研究工作需要适时进阶,从而将领导小组办公室置于学界的聚光灯下。基于重要程度、受关注度、资料完整度等指标,可采用中央领导小组、国务院议事协调机构的办事机构作为领导小组办公室研究的基础信息表。实地调研、文件起草、政策阐释、督促落实这四项重点职责,构成了领导小组办公室运转的功能矩阵。领导小组办公室的作用机理呈现为X型链接,即对上承接领导小组成员集群、左右联动职能部门集群、向下延伸下级主体集群。领导小组办公室的现实角色已远超过办事机构层面,其乃是国家治理中的一个关键行动者。     

以系统哲学视角解读《德意志意识形态》中的社会有机体思想

从系统哲学角度考察社会有机体是历史唯物主义的内在要求.从系统哲学的视角看,《德意志意识形态》阐明了社会绝非孤立的个人的外在联系形式,而是根源于"现实的人"的实践活动并不断更新迭代的内在关系性有机体;社会有机体的子系统之间并非"无主体"的静态并列结构,而是人们现实实践活动的分殊性表现,差异一体的动态交互才是社会有机体嬗变的复合动力.系统哲学与社会有机体理论的融合对于考察21世纪的社会新形态具有重要启示:在理论上,二者都强调关系论和生成论在社会有机体中的统一,有助于走出抽象人本主义和结构主义对历史唯物主义的对立性片面理解,推进理论创新;在实践上,二者都强调社会有机体子系统之间的动态协同,有助于走出"经济决定论",以新发展理念建构健康和谐的文明新形态.     

腐败成因:一种社会文化心理的视角

社会文化心理是腐败形成的重要心理气候条件和文化生态环境,也是现阶段我国腐败现象屡禁不止的深层社会心理根基和思想文化温床。与腐败形成关联密切的社会文化心理主要有封建思想遗毒、社会文化失范、腐败社会认同和人情裙带观念等。因此,反腐倡廉需要从社会文化心理入手,开展文化建设和心理建设,尤其是开展深入的文化反思和深层的心理分析,才能从源头上消除腐败滋生的土壤与温床。