普京的强国之路

普京执政六年来,在政治、经济、军事、外交等方面采取了一系列重大举措,使俄罗斯在走向强国之路上迈出了一大步。俄作为一个大国正在重返世界舞台。     

Prescriptive and Elicitive Approaches to Conflict Resolution: Examples from Papua New Guinea

Negotiation Journal -     

From Hasbara to the Palestine-Israel Sport Conflict

This analysis highlights the role of sport—particularly football—in nation-building. Using netnographic techniques, it focuses on the Palestinian struggle for self-determination and nationhood through the efforts of the Palestinian Football Association [PFA] to challenge Israeli hegemony and function independently of Israeli surveillance in a sovereign Palestinian nation-state. It explains how the PFA has attempted to harness its status, manifested in its Fédération Internationale de Football Association [FIFA] membership, to threaten Israel’s own FIFA membership and its international image. The value of this analysis stems from the way it embeds the empirical narrative within a broader international relations analytical/theoretical framework that problematises the central concept of “soft power” that has predominated the current “sports and international relations” literature.     

东北亚海权争端与中国的新思维

东北亚是一个地缘空间相对狭小,战略力量分布密集,对权力分配异常敏感的国际热点区域。海洋意识的觉醒、民族主义的强化、海洋权益博弈规则的零和性以及当前存在的制度缝隙交织的结果使得该地区海洋权益争端愈加激烈。鉴于海洋在新时期对于国家在安全、经济、政治等诸多领域的重要作用,一场新的"蓝色圈地运动"正在悄然展开。时移而世易,面对长期以来形成的"搁置争议,他来开发"的复杂局面和海洋对于我国和平崛起战略价值的日益提升,中国有必要适时改变既有的争端解决模式,通过"搁置争议,积极开发"的介入性举措和对主张权益"既要认,又要领"的实质性行为,以期在这场海洋主权博弈的大棋局中占得先手。     

Deep Frustration of the Egyptian Dream to Build a Powerful Nation

For many years,Egypt sought to become a powerful nation,but failed in its efforts,because its ruling foundation has deviated from the majority of the broad masses,its development path has strayed from its goal of industrialization,and its extemal strategy has gotten away from the line of non-alignment.The lessons of Egypt should be learned by other nations.     

Cry,the imagined country: Legitimacy and the fate of Macedonia

Whether or not the future Europe will be characterized as one of constant security dilemmas or a place of integrating security identities may well be linked to the fate of Macedonia. Indeed, Macedonia's survival will depend on ‘external’ forces.1 Yet, to date, the limited responses and commitments on the part of external parties have not been entirely promising. Unlike many other analyses that have focused on the Balkans, and former Yugoslavia in particular, and argued that the causes for conflict and disintegration are markedly similar, we suggest that Macedonia's problems are unique. It remains a too common and crucial mistake to assume that the root causes for disintegration that have plagued Serbia, Croatia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Bosnia‐Herzegovina and Macedonia since 1991 are all linked to a few centrally identifiable factors. And, with the exception of attempting to lessen the disparate economic geographies that continue to spell promise or peril for the entire region, the root solutions for Southeast Europe will prove problematic, and at times seem overwhelming, but will not prove ultimately impossible. However small, a window of opportunity still exists in Southeast Europe.     

In the Nick of Time: Conflict Management, Mediation Timing, and the Duration of Interstate Disputes

This paper develops a theoretical argument linking time and the timing of conflict management efforts to dispute duration. We test competing hypotheses on conflict data drawn from disputes in the post-1945 period. Our analysis demonstrates that the effects of mediation vary substantially over the course of a dispute. Specifically, we note that mediation has a curvilinear relationship with time and the ending of disputes. Mediation efforts that occur soon after disputes begin have the best chance of reducing expected future dispute duration. Following this initial period, subsequent mediation efforts lead to longer rather than shorter disputes. After a long period, mediation again leads to shorter rather than longer disputes. We also find that there should be consistency in the mediators used to manage a conflict rather than shifting personnel to interject new ideas.     

Playing at peace: Western politics,diplomacy and the stabilization of Macedonia

On 27 July 2001 negotiators of the ethnic Slav and ethnic Albanian political parties from the self‐proclaimed unity government of the Federal Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) met at Ohrid, a lakeside resort in the southwestern corner of the war‐torn country. The negotiators had fled Skopje, the country's starved, gray capital, because the pressures from the spreading war between ethnic Albanian insurgents and the dominantly ethnic Slav security forces had made constructive political dialogue nearly impossible. Ohrid, on the other hand, was a community that embraced many of the region's historical contradictions. The town had seen Romans, Byzantines, Franks, Ottomans, Serbs, Greeks and Albanians all come and go. Saint Clement of Ohrid (d. 916) had once lived and worshipped in the city, and much of the architecture, with its winding streets and numerous churches and monasteries, still bore the marks of its medieval and diverse past. All parties arrived in this contemplative setting under intense diplomatic pressure from the European Union (EU), the United States (US), and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to find a constitutional and political solution to the crisis, and find one soon. As all parties sat down to thrash out a compromise, a senior EU mediator was heard to remark: ‘This country doesn't need mediators, it needs a psychoanalyst.”     

The Calculus of Nation in the Cuban Revolution

The history of Cuba was imbued with a sense of purpose at its inception. To have discerned the need at all for a history of Cuba in the nineteenth century was itself product and portent of a momentous shift in consciousness, an occasion when narratives of the past revealed themselves as a potential source of national community. The history of Cuba began at the moment that the past became relevant to the future. Historical narrative developed as a matter of necessity, a product of a time and place, a means by which Cubans addressed the needs of their times. Purpose and point of view were inscribed into the very premise of the historical narrative, and indeed fixed the narrative genre around which the history of Cuba was structured. The historical narrative in this instance contained a premonition of nation which shared something with the new collective consciousness to which it contributed. Historical consciousness was itself a product of national formation, to which it responded and for which it was summoned: the proposition of a shared awareness of a common past with which to bring a people together and justify a nation apart.     

Visit to ROK, Japan and the Working Team

正At the invitation of the National Strategy Institute of the Republic of Korea(NSI),Japan-China Friendship Society under Junior Chamber International(JC) and the Philippine Center of Young Leaders in Governance(PCYLG),a 3-member working team headed by Nijian,     

Evaluating Claims of Social Connection to International Conflict Casualties

Recent studies examining the political impact of individuals' connections to the victims of international violence find these ties have a powerful effect on people's attitudes and feelings. How reliable, however, are self-reported claims of ties to a conflict's casualties? Using data from 9/11 and the Iraq War, I examine these claims, analyzing: 1) their influence on both public assessments of foreign policy and voting behavior, 2) whether critical demographic and political factors predict the likelihood of individuals reporting a tie to a conflict casualty, 3) the predicted, aggregate likelihood of survey respondents having connections to conflict victims, and 4) the theoretical distinction between actual vs. perceived casualty connections. The results strongly support the use of casualty connection data for understanding individuals' responses to international violence, and encourage future applications of social network approaches to the study of war and politics.     

欧盟新老成员国关系特征与利益冲突模式

2004年5月1日欧盟实现第五次东扩,欧盟成员国增至25个.本文对欧盟东扩后新老成员国关系构建的背景与过程、当前欧盟成员国关系的最新特征以及此次东扩后成员国之间的利益冲突及其利益组合模式等问题进行阐述和分析.本文的主要观点是:东扩后新老成员国之间存在尖锐的利益冲突,欧盟内部利益多元化现象更趋明显,有可能形成超越新老成员国的非固定的新的利益组合模式.     

"强大国家"与"先进国家"--关于大国崛起两重含义的辨析

大国崛起既可以理解为国际政治体系格局变动中的权力博弈 ,也可以理解为现代世界体系结构变化中进入中心区域的发展竞争。历史经验证明 ,片面追求“强大国家”目标可能陷入“安全困境”并阻碍社会的发展 ,而由先进的现代社会支撑的国家最有利于成为世界体系的中心国家并走上和平发展的道路     

宏观博识新见迭出--《从部族社会到民族国家--尼日利亚国家发展史纲》评介

云南大学刘鸿武教授主持撰写的学术专著《从部族社会到民族国家———尼日利亚国家发展史纲》 (云南大学出版社 2 0 0 0年版 ) ,是中国学者对非洲历史文化与当代政治发展问题研究的一项重要成果。该书在选题和研究方法上都很有新意 ,是一部宏观博识、史论交融、创见迭出、颇具学术分量的佳作。一民族一体化问题是非洲政治发展的重大课题 ,本书择取这一选题是很有学术眼光的。　如何完成由分割的传统社会向现代统一民族国家的过渡 ,是关系到当代非洲国家现代化的成败 ,影响非洲政治、经济、社会发展的关键因素之一。不同文化、宗教、语言、习…     

全球化进程中的东南亚经济新格局

在经济全球化进程中,东南亚经济发展呈现出新的格局和趋势。各国既经历了参与经济全球化所带来的发展机遇,也遭受到经济全球化而引发的巨大冲击。本文探讨了全球化背景下东南亚经济增长的波动性和同步性,从贸易、金融与生产三个基本层面概述了东南亚经济运行的基本特征,并分析了东南亚区域经济一体化的新进展。     

权力、软权力与国家形象

本文综合考察了国际政治中的权力问题。文章指出,现实主义权力观因过度强调权力的“强制性”和“物质性”一面、忽视非物质性及非强制性一面而具有内在的缺陷。军事、经济力量并非权力的全部,文化、价值观上的吸引力、设定国际议程的能力等“软权力”也是权力的重要维度。如果一国的对外政策过度倚重“硬权力”而忽视了“软权力”的运用,那么在很多时候,它有可能在国际舆论中陷入被动地位,危害本国的国家形象,最终危及本国的对外政策目标。