普京的强国之路

普京执政六年来,在政治、经济、军事、外交等方面采取了一系列重大举措,使俄罗斯在走向强国之路上迈出了一大步。俄作为一个大国正在重返世界舞台。     

Ethnic Conflict and the New Legalism in China

In October 2014, the Chinese Communist Party committed to the establishment of a “socialist rule of law with Chinese characteristics.” Since then a group of Chinese political elites that we refer to as new legalists has been calling for ethnic conflict to be managed in accordance with the rule of law. This article finds that the deeply embedded and highly politicized problem of ethnic conflict in China lends credence to the legalist position that new law-based approaches are needed, although a number of practical problems arise when attempting to strengthen the rule of law. There are for instance powerful factions in the country supporting the continuation of repressive policies or selective ethnic preferentialism, and there are relatively low levels of legal awareness in ethnic-minority communities and general inadequacies in the Chinese legal system. We argue that an elite group of new legalists in China is attempting to reshape ethnic-minority policy in order to break free from the everyday protean politics of ethnic relations that is based largely on a negative cycle of violent confrontation and financial compensation.     

Prescriptive and Elicitive Approaches to Conflict Resolution: Examples from Papua New Guinea

Negotiation Journal -     

From Hasbara to the Palestine-Israel Sport Conflict

This analysis highlights the role of sport—particularly football—in nation-building. Using netnographic techniques, it focuses on the Palestinian struggle for self-determination and nationhood through the efforts of the Palestinian Football Association [PFA] to challenge Israeli hegemony and function independently of Israeli surveillance in a sovereign Palestinian nation-state. It explains how the PFA has attempted to harness its status, manifested in its Fédération Internationale de Football Association [FIFA] membership, to threaten Israel’s own FIFA membership and its international image. The value of this analysis stems from the way it embeds the empirical narrative within a broader international relations analytical/theoretical framework that problematises the central concept of “soft power” that has predominated the current “sports and international relations” literature.     

东北亚海权争端与中国的新思维

东北亚是一个地缘空间相对狭小,战略力量分布密集,对权力分配异常敏感的国际热点区域。海洋意识的觉醒、民族主义的强化、海洋权益博弈规则的零和性以及当前存在的制度缝隙交织的结果使得该地区海洋权益争端愈加激烈。鉴于海洋在新时期对于国家在安全、经济、政治等诸多领域的重要作用,一场新的"蓝色圈地运动"正在悄然展开。时移而世易,面对长期以来形成的"搁置争议,他来开发"的复杂局面和海洋对于我国和平崛起战略价值的日益提升,中国有必要适时改变既有的争端解决模式,通过"搁置争议,积极开发"的介入性举措和对主张权益"既要认,又要领"的实质性行为,以期在这场海洋主权博弈的大棋局中占得先手。     

Social Psychology's Contributions to the Study of Conflict Resolution

This essay presents an indication of the major research questions addressed in the literature of social psychology related to conflict resolution, as well as a historical perspective to see what progress has been made in this area. Highlighted at the conclusion of a section on contemporary themes in conflict studies is the author's consideration of what we know (and need to know) about conflict resolution and overcoming oppression. The author also offers an assessment of the progress thus far in the methodological, conceptual, empirical, and technological domains in the social psychological study of conflict.     

Deep Frustration of the Egyptian Dream to Build a Powerful Nation

For many years,Egypt sought to become a powerful nation,but failed in its efforts,because its ruling foundation has deviated from the majority of the broad masses,its development path has strayed from its goal of industrialization,and its extemal strategy has gotten away from the line of non-alignment.The lessons of Egypt should be learned by other nations.     

Cry,the imagined country: Legitimacy and the fate of Macedonia

Whether or not the future Europe will be characterized as one of constant security dilemmas or a place of integrating security identities may well be linked to the fate of Macedonia. Indeed, Macedonia's survival will depend on ‘external’ forces.1 Yet, to date, the limited responses and commitments on the part of external parties have not been entirely promising. Unlike many other analyses that have focused on the Balkans, and former Yugoslavia in particular, and argued that the causes for conflict and disintegration are markedly similar, we suggest that Macedonia's problems are unique. It remains a too common and crucial mistake to assume that the root causes for disintegration that have plagued Serbia, Croatia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Bosnia‐Herzegovina and Macedonia since 1991 are all linked to a few centrally identifiable factors. And, with the exception of attempting to lessen the disparate economic geographies that continue to spell promise or peril for the entire region, the root solutions for Southeast Europe will prove problematic, and at times seem overwhelming, but will not prove ultimately impossible. However small, a window of opportunity still exists in Southeast Europe.     

In the Nick of Time: Conflict Management, Mediation Timing, and the Duration of Interstate Disputes

This paper develops a theoretical argument linking time and the timing of conflict management efforts to dispute duration. We test competing hypotheses on conflict data drawn from disputes in the post-1945 period. Our analysis demonstrates that the effects of mediation vary substantially over the course of a dispute. Specifically, we note that mediation has a curvilinear relationship with time and the ending of disputes. Mediation efforts that occur soon after disputes begin have the best chance of reducing expected future dispute duration. Following this initial period, subsequent mediation efforts lead to longer rather than shorter disputes. After a long period, mediation again leads to shorter rather than longer disputes. We also find that there should be consistency in the mediators used to manage a conflict rather than shifting personnel to interject new ideas.     

Scrolling Around the New Organization: The Potential for Conflict in the On-Line Environment

The technological revolution has created as many challenges as opportunities for managers in today's organizations. Besides wandering around to manage, scrolling around on a computer screen has become common-place. This article reviews four key technology-caused challenges facing managers in the workplace, chiefly as the result of communication via e-mail. Specifically, the author focuses on what research to date informs us about negotiation and conflict resolution in an electronic environment.     

Choosing Sides in the European Iraq Conflict: A Test of New Geopolitical Theory

Abstract

Focusing on the Euro-Atlantic conflict over the Iraq war operation in early 2003 (the ‘European Iraq conflict’), the purpose of the present article is to explain the pattern of Atlantic (vs. Continental) predispositions among European countries. It argues that this is the best suited conflict in the post-Cold War era to illuminate this stable and fundamental pattern. Whereas systemic power distribution, size, public opinion, or government ideology all fail to account for the positioning of states in the conflict (and balance of threat applies only modestly), a theory of ‘past and present geopolitics’ is outlined that seems able to explain states’ predispositions and, hence, their positionings in this specific situation. It is remarkable that ‘old-fashioned’ geopolitical dynamics can be identified even within the Euro-Atlantic zone of ‘peace and prosperity’—not only at its fringes, but also in its very heart.     

Playing at peace: Western politics,diplomacy and the stabilization of Macedonia

On 27 July 2001 negotiators of the ethnic Slav and ethnic Albanian political parties from the self‐proclaimed unity government of the Federal Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) met at Ohrid, a lakeside resort in the southwestern corner of the war‐torn country. The negotiators had fled Skopje, the country's starved, gray capital, because the pressures from the spreading war between ethnic Albanian insurgents and the dominantly ethnic Slav security forces had made constructive political dialogue nearly impossible. Ohrid, on the other hand, was a community that embraced many of the region's historical contradictions. The town had seen Romans, Byzantines, Franks, Ottomans, Serbs, Greeks and Albanians all come and go. Saint Clement of Ohrid (d. 916) had once lived and worshipped in the city, and much of the architecture, with its winding streets and numerous churches and monasteries, still bore the marks of its medieval and diverse past. All parties arrived in this contemplative setting under intense diplomatic pressure from the European Union (EU), the United States (US), and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to find a constitutional and political solution to the crisis, and find one soon. As all parties sat down to thrash out a compromise, a senior EU mediator was heard to remark: ‘This country doesn't need mediators, it needs a psychoanalyst.”     

Fuel to the Fire: Natural Disasters and the Duration of Civil Conflict

Do natural disasters prolong civil conflict? Or are disasters more likely to encourage peace as hostilities diminish when confronting shared hardship or as shifts in the balance of power between insurgents and the state hasten cessation? To address these questions, this study performs an event history analysis of disasters’ impact on the duration of 224 armed intrastate conflicts occurring in 86 states between 1946 and 2005. I contend that natural disasters increase conflict duration by decreasing the state’s capacity to suppress insurgency, while reinforcing insurgent groups’ ability to evade capture and avoid defeat. First, disasters’ economic impact coupled with state financial outlays for disaster relief and reconstruction, reduce resources available for counterinsurgency and nation building in conflict zones. Second, the military’s role in administering humanitarian assistance can reduce the availability of troops and military hardware for counterinsurgency, prompt temporary ceasefires with insurgents, or both. Third, natural disasters can cause infrastructural damages that disproportionately hinder the state’s capacity to execute counterinsurgency missions, thereby making insurgent forces more difficult to capture and overcome. The combination of these dynamics should encourage longer conflicts in states with higher incidence of disaster. Empirical evidence strongly supports this contention, indicating that states with greater disaster vulnerability fight longer wars.     

The Calculus of Nation in the Cuban Revolution

The history of Cuba was imbued with a sense of purpose at its inception. To have discerned the need at all for a history of Cuba in the nineteenth century was itself product and portent of a momentous shift in consciousness, an occasion when narratives of the past revealed themselves as a potential source of national community. The history of Cuba began at the moment that the past became relevant to the future. Historical narrative developed as a matter of necessity, a product of a time and place, a means by which Cubans addressed the needs of their times. Purpose and point of view were inscribed into the very premise of the historical narrative, and indeed fixed the narrative genre around which the history of Cuba was structured. The historical narrative in this instance contained a premonition of nation which shared something with the new collective consciousness to which it contributed. Historical consciousness was itself a product of national formation, to which it responded and for which it was summoned: the proposition of a shared awareness of a common past with which to bring a people together and justify a nation apart.